As usual, I'll post an update with a link to the results when it becomes available.

Update:  You can watch the returns come in tonight at the Florida Election Watch website.



Filed under:  2012 GOP Primaries  FL Primary 2012  Florida 2012  FL President 2012  Newt Gingrich  Mitt Romney 

One question that has come up in the reaction to the new numbers is about the color of New Hampshire.  Readers rightfully point to a series of polls taken in the Granite State which shows Romney beating Obama.  Certainly, were these polls included in my calculations, New Hampshire would be painted red and Romney would be currently projected to beat Obama overall (270-268!!).  However, as much as I would love to show Romney leading, the polls in question are all too old to be used.  The last one was taken November of last year.

Rest assured, GOP fans, once a new poll comes out of New Hampshire, I will update the projections accordingly.



Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  New Hampshire 2012  NH President 2012 

As I promised a week ago, I've launched Election Projection's official tracking of the presidential contest between Romney and President Obama, and the first official projections are posted.  Previously, the President enjoyed a substantial lead after the "Tour of the 50 states" yielded my state-by-state preliminary projections.  But the first look at the race using calculations with actual polling numbers reveals a much closer fight.  Obama retains the lead in my initial projections, but by just 6 electoral votes.

Mitt Romney is projected to carry all the states won by John McCain in 2008 - plus Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia - for a total of 266 electoral votes.  That's not quite enough to best President Obama, who is projected to win a total of 272 EVs, but it does set up a race that should be very competitive.  As we watch this competitive race unfold over the next nine months, I hope you'll visit Election Projection often to get an up-to-date outlook from The Blogging Caesar.



Filed under:  2012 Elections  2012 Presidential Election 

Sure, not many delegates were at stake in the Palmetto State, but the course of the whole primary election season may have been reversed there this weekend.  Unless something happens to derail the former Speaker for a third time this election cycle, he has to be considered the favorite to win in Florida. And where it had been Romney's nomination to lose just a few days ago, it is now Gingrich, assuming he indeed wins Florida, who will wear the mantle of frontrunner heading into February.



Filed under:  2012 GOP Primaries  FL Primary 2012  Florida 2012  FL President 2012  SC Primary 2012  South Carolina 2012  SC President 2012 

So what does Gingrich's final lap kick in South Carolina mean for the nomination contest?  One thing it doesn't mean is that Romney has lost his chance to be the nominee.  In fact, I believe it would be hard to demote him from frontrunner status.  He still holds the same advantages that prompted me to declare him the winner while he still enjoyed that substantial lead in South Carolina.  Moreover, despite all the hoopla, just 80 of 2,286 delegates have been spoken for.  We still have a lot of voting left to do.

What Gingrich's performance yesterday does do is make Florida's primary on January 31 an important one.  Had Romney won South Carolina, the race would have been over.  As it turned out, the race is still interesting, or, as Newt Gingrich said in his speech last night, "game on!"  Looking beyond the Sunshine State, it's also important to note that even Florida's result won't seal the deal for the winner, regardless who that turns out to be.  We are now looking at a protracted battle for the right to face President Obama.

In February, the game will be played in seven states representing approximately 200 delegates - or just 9% of the total delegates available.  Add to that the fact that, due to Republican Party rules, these February contests will be proportionately allocated, and it's easy to see how we could still be very much undecided when we get to Super Tuesday on March 6.

One thing's for sure, with three very different men looking at possible paths to the nomination (sorry, Ron Paul fans), Republicans are going to have ample time to figure out who they think the best of the lot is.  I just wish the options were more appealing.



Filed under:  2012 GOP Primaries  SC Primary 2012  South Carolina 2012  SC President 2012  FL Primary 2012  Florida 2012  FL President 2012 

The next step in that process will be tomorrow's South Carolina Republican primary.  In recent days, Gingrich has eradicated a substantial deficit in the polls coming out of the Palmetto State and vaulted into a clear lead.  The momentum from endorsements by Rick Perry and Sarah Palin and strong debate performances have made him the new favorite to win tomorrow.  Whether or not that translates into frontrunner status in other states remains to be seen, but national polls are tightening.

So with no further ado, here are my predictions for the South Carolina Republican primary.

• Newt Gingrich - 41%
• Mitt Romney - 33%
• Ron Paul - 18%
• Rick Santorum - 8%

I'll post an update with a link to the results when it becomes available.

Update:  You can track the results tonight as they come in at this handy website.  Polls close at 7pm Eastern.  And here is a primer to help you interpret early returns: Five counties to watch in South Carolina.



Filed under:  2012 GOP Primaries  SC Primary 2012  South Carolina 2012  SC President 2012  Newt Gingrich  Mitt Romney 

Like most conservative Republicans, I still have serious misgivings about everyone in the dwindling GOP presidential field, those who are still in it and those who have left.  I remain mildly convinced that Romney would have a better chance than Gingrich against President Obama, but if Republicans can take the Senate, maybe it's worth the risk just to see Newt take on Obama in a few debates - at least that may be a silver lining in an otherwise gloomy presidential nominating contest.

Oh, and by the way, Iowa's certified final results show Santorum eclipsing Romney by 34 votes.  That means the final order among the top three, Santorum, Romney and Paul, turned out just the way I predicted.  I thought you might like to know.



Filed under:  2012 GOP Primaries  South Carolina 2012  SC Primary 2012  SC President 2012  Iowa 2012  IA Caucus 2012  IA President 2012 

This week's pro-life forum in South Carolina would seem the perfect venue to convince his pro-life doubters they need not worry about how he would govern with respect to abortion.  However, he will not be in attendance tonight.  In fact, Jennifer Mason, a representative of Personhood USA, the forum's sponsor, reports that Romney did not even bother responding to the invitation to participate.

One side-effect of her poor showing, if that indeed is the case, will likely be a negative impact for President Obama in the Tarheel State, a surprise electoral victory for him in 2008.  Add to that four very good takeover opportunities in the House afforded by newly-redrawn congressional district boundaries, and Republicans here in my home state seem poised for a very good result this November 6th.



Filed under:  North Carolina 2012  NC Governor 2012 

When Rick Perry joined the fray, I boldly declared him the next nominee - and the next president. (Ok, how was I to know he'd forget his own policies?).  When Rick Santorum utilized Mike Huckabee's GOP base in Iowa to gain a virtual tie with Romney in the Hawkeye Caucuses, I pegged the nomination contest as a two-man race.  In between, I rode the short-lived waves of Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich.  And most recently, I even floated the possibility of a Perry comeback in the days before New Hampshire.

Now, with South Carolina's primary less than a week away, I've become convinced of a less-than-optimal inevitability.  It is with some regret that I hereby relinquish hope of an "anti-Romney" candidate prevailing to face President Obama in November.  Mitt Romney is dominating the fundraising battle and the endorsement tally.  Beyond that, he also continues to lead the polls both in South Carolina and nationally.

Trying to draw up a scenario that doesn't end with a Romney nomination has become unreasonably improbable.  So sure am I that he will emerge the nominee that I will soon be dispensing with my preliminary presidential projections and initiating actual, formula-driven projections using Obama vs. Romney poll numbers.  Let the games begin - and may Romney win.



Filed under:  2012 GOP Primaries  2012 Elections  2012 Presidential Election  Mitt Romney 

That's the expected result, and, like we see with the financial markets where expectations drive prices up or down before economic news is released, I don't see much change in the polls if expectations are met.  However, here are some conceivable scenarios which would move the numbers coming out of New Hampshire.

Parting shot:  No conceivable outcome for Jon Huntsman would impact the race going forward.  In fact, I think it is comical that Huntsman has campaigned all these many months to come in third or fourth in this one primary contest.  But, hey, he's likely to accomplish that feat.  Woot.



Filed under:  2012 GOP Primaries  NH Primary 2012  New Hampshire 2012  NH President 2012 

However, on Twitter and conservative blogs, there is a quite a buzz in support of the Texas Governor.  Could he come back from the brink of nothingness?  Probably not, but I think I might know why he's getting a cyberspace boost.  Unlike the parade of "flavors of the week" we've seen rise and fall in the GOP race over the last couple months, Perry's infamous debate performances ("um, what was that third department?") - not his record or his reputation - caused his collapse.

Now, with acceptable options running thin, active internet conservatives are talking up Perry and his stellar performance as governor of Texas.  Whether he can gain among rank and file Republicans soon enough to make a splash in South Carolina remains to be seen.  But it's becoming clear to me that were it not for several weak showings in the debates, my original estimation of Perry's political fortunes would have come to pass.



Filed under:  2012 GOP Primaries  SC Primary 2012  South Carolina 2012  SC President 2012  Rick Perry 

Election Projection has a handy redistricting page with at-a-glance tables and maps that track the status of the process in all 43 multi-district states.  This week, I've updated the page a couple of times, moving some states into the "complete" column and refreshing the expected impact of redistricting on the partisan balance of power in the House.  Ironically, with all the moving and rearranging, the net of it all will be no change according to Charlie Cook's redistricting estimations.

Check back often to see how things are shaping up.  I'll be updating the redistricting page as changes occur and more states complete the process.  The big unknown right now is the state of Texas.  After weeks of numerous court actions and several false starts, the Supreme Court will hear arguments Monday on a district map controversy that has drawn the constitutionality of parts of the Voting Rights Act of 1965 into question.



Filed under:  2012 Redistricting  Texas 2012 

It's the economy- Last cycle, evangelicals were solidly behind Huckabee, and values issues were foremost on their minds.  Last night, entrance polling showed the economy and jobs far outweighed social issues, even in the minds of religious conservatives.  The fact that Santorum still pulled out a tie against Romney - even while staunch conservatives were splitting their vote substantially with Ron Paul - reveals his ability to draw Republicans on economic issues, not just social ones.  That will lend strength to his legitimacy as the anti-Romney candidate as we move into other areas where evangelicals don't play such a major role.

There is no John McCain- As odd as this may sound, Santorum will benefit from the fact that there is no John McCain waiting in the wings.  Four years ago, McCain was polling well in New Hampshire, and his victory there set the stage for his unlikely ride to the nomination.  This year, all legitimate candidates have already had their moments in the spotlight as the anti-Romney candidate and have fallen away.  Last night cleared the field for a Santorum vs. Romney two-man race.  (Jon Huntsman has no chance of gaining momentum or contending for the nomination, even if he maxes out expectations in New Hampshire.)

Mike Huckabee's rise was short-lived as Republicans settled on John McCain as the anti-Romney alternative.  I believe Rick Santorum's rise will persist for much longer, and his flame will not be extinguished by another alternative to Romney.  Indeed, there just aren't any more arrows in that quiver.  I'm not guaranteeing a Santorum nomination, but I am saying that the GOP nominee will inevitably be either him or Romney.



Filed under:  2012 Elections  2012 GOP Primaries  IA Caucus 2012 

Going on to New Hampshire and South Carolina, we now have our anti-Romney candidate.  This race has been reduced to just two real contenders.  Ron Paul's performance illustrated my point that his ceiling is in the low 20s.  The sooner he gets out of the race, the better, in my view.  The Republican nomination will go to either Mitt Romney or Rick Santorum.

And after Iowa's results, it's either man's race.  Santorum's first two words in his speech early this morning were "game on!"  Indeed.



Filed under:  2012 Elections  IA Caucus 2012  Iowa 2012  IA President 2012 

Some time later this evening, the Iowa GOP website will be posting the results.



Filed under:  2012 Elections  Iowa 2012  IA President 2012  IA Caucus 2012 

Gingrich's opportunity has passed, along with Bachmann's.  Huntsman never had one.  On the other hand, Perry's finish, while not enough to earn a spot on the podium, could be strong enough to keep him interesting going forward.



Filed under:  IA Caucus 2012  Iowa 2012  IA President 2012  GOP Primaries 2012