|The abrupt re-resurgence of Newt Gingrich last weekend, fueled by his resounding victory in South Carolina, has experienced an equally abrupt downturn in recent days. Mitt Romney
has moved comfortably ahead in several polls coming out of Florida. With a victory in Tuesday's primary in the Sunshine State appearing all but certain, Romney's path to the
GOP nomination should become much less fraught with obstacles.
As I promised a week ago, I've launched Election Projection's
official tracking of the presidential contest between Romney and President Obama, and the first official projections are posted. Previously, the President enjoyed a substantial lead
after the "Tour of the 50 states" yielded my state-by-state preliminary projections. But the first look at the race using calculations with actual polling numbers reveals a much
closer fight. Obama retains the lead in my initial projections, but by just 6 electoral votes.
Mitt Romney is projected to carry all the states won by John McCain in 2008 - plus Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia - for a total of 266 electoral votes. That's
not quite enough to best President Obama, who is projected to win a total of 272 EVs, but it does set up a race that should be very competitive. As we watch this competitive race
unfold over the next nine months, I hope you'll visit Election Projection often to get an up-to-date outlook from The Blogging Caesar.
2012 Presidential Election
posted by Scott Elliott at 10:36pm 01/29/12::