It's the economy- Last cycle, evangelicals were solidly behind Huckabee, and values issues were foremost on their minds.  Last night, entrance polling showed the economy and jobs far outweighed social issues, even in the minds of religious conservatives.  The fact that Santorum still pulled out a tie against Romney - even while staunch conservatives were splitting their vote substantially with Ron Paul - reveals his ability to draw Republicans on economic issues, not just social ones.  That will lend strength to his legitimacy as the anti-Romney candidate as we move into other areas where evangelicals don't play such a major role.

There is no John McCain- As odd as this may sound, Santorum will benefit from the fact that there is no John McCain waiting in the wings.  Four years ago, McCain was polling well in New Hampshire, and his victory there set the stage for his unlikely ride to the nomination.  This year, all legitimate candidates have already had their moments in the spotlight as the anti-Romney candidate and have fallen away.  Last night cleared the field for a Santorum vs. Romney two-man race.  (Jon Huntsman has no chance of gaining momentum or contending for the nomination, even if he maxes out expectations in New Hampshire.)

Mike Huckabee's rise was short-lived as Republicans settled on John McCain as the anti-Romney alternative.  I believe Rick Santorum's rise will persist for much longer, and his flame will not be extinguished by another alternative to Romney.  Indeed, there just aren't any more arrows in that quiver.  I'm not guaranteeing a Santorum nomination, but I am saying that the GOP nominee will inevitably be either him or Romney.



Filed under:  2012 Elections  2012 GOP Primaries  IA Caucus 2012