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| - July, 2006 |
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| Thursday, July 27, 2006 |
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| Daily Poll Report |
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Quinnipiac
Florida Senate:
Nelson(D) 61%, Harris(R) 37%
Nelson(D) 57%, McBride(R) 23%
Nelson(D) 59%, Collins(R) 19%
Nelson(D) 59%, Monroe(R) 19%
Florida Senate (primaries):
GOP: Harris(R) 40%/35%, McBride(R) 21%/16%,
Collins(R) 6%/5%, Monroe(R) 3%/3% (LV/RV)
Rasmussen
Arkansas Governor:
Beebe(D) 47%, Hutchinson(R) 40%
Tennessee Senate:
Corker(R) 49%, Ford(D) 37%
Hilleary(R) 44%, Ford(D) 40%
Bryant(R) 44%, Ford(D) 41%
Strategic Vision
Michigan Senate:
Stabenow(D) 52%, Bouchard(R) 36%
Stabenow(D) 53%, Butler(R) 33%
Michigan Senate (primaries):
GOP: Bouchard(R) 43%, Butler(R) 37%
Michigan Governor:
DeVos(R) 48%, Granholm(D) 44%
SurveyUSA
Alabama Governor:
Riley(R) 52%, Baxley(D) 38%
Virginia CD-5:
Goode(R) 59%, Weed(D) 35%
State Page Updates
Alabama | Arkansas | Michigan
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:50am 07/27/06 ::
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| Wednesday, July 26, 2006 |
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| RATING CHANGE ALERT: Kentucky CD-4 |
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| A new poll out today
shows Kentucky Congressman Geoff Davis (R) in some trouble against his challenger and predecessor, Democrat Ken Lucas. The Blogging Caesar's
preliminary projection on this race was "possibly competitive." That was probably too optimisitic - this race should have been in the competitive
category all along.
With Lucas up by 9% in the SurveyUSA poll, it is not just competitive; it is now projected as a Weak DEM Gain.
This advance inches the Democrats one seat closer at Election Projection to regaining the majority in the House. Things are definitely moving in
their direction right now. Time will tell if the winds of change are blowing hard enough come November to
prove The Blogging Caesar wrong.
posted by Scott Elliott at 12:30pm 07/26/06 ::
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| Daily Poll Report |
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Dan Jones & Associates
Utah Senate:
Hatch(R) 63%, Ashdown(D) 21%
Utah CD-1:
Bishop(R) 57%, Olsen(D) 23%
Utah CD-2:
Matheson(D) 64%, Christensen(R) 23%
Utah CD-3:
Cannon(R) 56%, Burridge(D) 24%
Mason Dixon
Florida Senate:
Nelson(D) 57%, Harris(R) 29%
Florida Senate (primaries):
GOP: Harris(R) 36%, McBride(R) 11%, Collins(R) 8%, Monroe(R) 2%
Florida Governor (primaries):
GOP: Crist(R) 36%, Gallagher(R) 24%
DEM: Davis(D) 29%, Smith(D) 14%, Undecided 52%
Quinnipiac
Florida Governor (primaries):
GOP: Crist(R) 55%/47%, Gallagher(R) 32%/29% (LV/RV)
DEM: Davis(D) 47%/39%, Smith(D) 19%/15% (LV/RV)
Siena College
New York Senate (primaries):
GOP: Spencer(R) 24%, McFarland(R) 18%, Undecided 58%
Strategic Vision
Florida Senate:
Nelson(D) 60%, Harris(R) 20%
Nelson(D) 59%, McBride(R) 20%
Nelson(D) 60%, Collins(R) 18%
Nelson(D) 61%, Monroe(R) 16%
Florida Senate (primaries):
GOP: Harris(R) 45%, McBride(R) 22%, Collins(R) 9%, Monroe(R) 7%
Florida Governor:
Crist(R) 49%, Davis(D) 39%
Crist(R) 49%, Smith(D) 41%
Gallagher(R) 40%, Davis(D) 39%
Gallagher(R) 40%, Smith(D) 40%
Florida Governor (primaries):
GOP: Crist(R) 57%, Gallagher(R) 29%
DEM: Davis(D) 40%, Smith(D) 35%
Washington Senate:
Cantwell(D) 48%, McGavick(R) 44%
SurveyUSA
Illinois Governor:
Blagojevich(D) 45%, Topinka(R) 34%
Kentucky CD-4:
Lucas(D) 50%, Davis(R) 41%
Virginia CD-9:
Bouchar(D) 66%, Davis(R) 29%
State Page Updates
Illinois | Kentucky
posted by Scott Elliott at 12:20pm 07/26/06 ::
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| Tuesday, July 25, 2006 |
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| Oklahoma primary today |
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The results from today's primary in Oklahoma will be posted here
beginning shortly after polls close at 7pm CDT.
posted by Scott Elliott at 2:30pm 07/25/06 ::
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| Daily Poll Report |
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The Field Poll
California Governor:
Schwarzenegger 45%, Angelides 37%
Mason Dixon
Tennessee Senate:
Corker(R) 49%, Ford(D) 36%
Tennessee Senate (primaries):
GOP: Corker(R) 39%, Bryant(R) 23%, Hilleary(R) 22%
Tennessee Governor:
Bredesen(D) 57%, Bryson(R) 24%
Rasmussen
Connecticut Senate:
Lieberman(I) 40%, Lamont(D) 40%, Schlesinger(R) 13%
Connecticut Senate (primaries):
DEM: Lamont(D) 51%, Lieberman(D) 41%
Connecticut Governor:
Rell(R) 56%, Malloy(D) 31%
Rell(R) 54%, DeStefano(D) 32%
SurveyUSA
Minnesota Senate:
Klobuchar(DFL) 47%, Kennedy(R) 42%, Fitzgerald(I) 8%
Minnesota Governor:
Pawlenty(R) 50%, Hatch(DFL) 36%, Hutchinson(I) 8%
Tennessee Senate (primaries):
GOP: Corker(R) 49%, Bryant(R) 29%, Hilleary(R) 15%, Harrison(R) 3%
State Page Updates
California | Minnesota
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:55am 07/25/06 ::
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| Monday, July 24, 2006 |
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| Poll: Do you favor the death penalty? |
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The latest edition of Election Projection's Weekly Poll is up. I'm enjoying the results from the recent polls relating to
the issues of the day. So, I thought another one would be in order. So far, we've looked at
illegal drugs, abortion, and same-sex marriage.
This week's issue - the death penalty. Some say it's always wrong; others say it's sometimes appropriate. What do you think?
Please participate in the poll located in the right sidebar.
posted by Scott Elliott at 12:10pm 07/24/06 ::
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| OH: DeWine now projected to lose |
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Mike DeWine's projected fate took a turn for the worse with the release of a poll done for The Columbus Dispatch. The poll
shows him behind Democrat Sherrod Brown by 8 points. This result continues a trend of wildly-varying polls. Brown's current projected margin
of victory is 4.3%.
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:45am 07/24/06 ::
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| Daily Poll Report |
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Columbus Dispatch
Ohio Senate:
Brown(D) 45%, DeWine(R) 37%
Ohio Governor:
Strickland(D) 47%, Blackwell(R) 27%
Farleigh Dickinson
New Jersey Senate:
Menendez(D) 43%, Kean(R) 40%
Rasmussen
Texas Senate:
Hutchinson(R) 58%, Radnofsky (D) 31%
Texas Governor:
Perry(R) 40%, Strayhorn(I) 20%, Friedman(I) 19%, Bell(D) 13%
Siena Research Institute
New York Governor (primaries):
DEM: Spitzer(D) 78%, Suozzi(D) 9%
State Page Updates
New Jersey | Ohio | Texas
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:40am 07/24/06 ::
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| Updated governor approval polls |
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| SurveyUSA recently released their
July approval polls for all 50 governors. The results impacted
many of the governors' races I'm tracking. The changes have been incorporated into the state pages. No major changes in the projections
came out of this new batch of approval numbers, though there was some interesting movement in some of the numbers.
Here are the highlights:
CA: Ahnold's net approval rose slightly from -19 to -17. Not enough to overtake his Democratic opponent, Phil Angelides. My guess is that,
unless his approval improves, he will have to be 3 or 4 points ahead in the polls to actually pull it out.
IL: Rod Blagojevich's approval also rose slightly from -8 to -7, keeping him just ahead of GOPer Judy Topinka.
MI: Jennifer Granholm has closed the gap just a bit on upstart GOP candidate Dick DeVos. Her approval moves up 4 points to -10. Getting
near the break-even point will be a good sign for her. If she can do that, the polls should follow. However, given Michigan's economic
problems, that might be a tall order.
NE: Dave Heineman experienced the biggest drop in net approval of any governor this month. It fell a whopping 16 points.
Don't toll the death noll for him just yet. You can weather that kind of drop when you start at +57!
OH: Embattled Republican Bob Taft's stands pat this month at a miserable -61.
OR: Ted Kulongoski's rating improved significantly this month, rising 11 points to -16. This improvement allowed him to cut
Ron Saxton's projected lead from 2.2 to only 0.6. Were Oregon a larger state, this race would be a headliner.
TX: Rick Perry fell 7 points and now has a negative net approval at -1. Thank goodness his challengers this year are not that
strong or he might be vulnerable in this race.
posted by Scott Elliott at 1:10am 07/24/06 ::
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| Sunday, July 23, 2006 |
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| New feature added to Election Projection |
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I've been busily updating the website, installing a new feature. You will now be able to track the ebb and flow of all the
races here using my new "Projection History" sections. Each race will have one, and in it I will record any changes to the projected margin of
victory. All races for which I have initiated tracking now have this feature enabled. As more primaries are held, you'll see this feature
enabled for more races. I hope this enhancement will make Election Projection an even better place to stop on your way to Election Day.
posted by Scott Elliott at 1:15am 07/23/06 ::
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| Friday, July 21, 2006 |
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| Daily Poll Report |
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Marist College
New York Senate:
Clinton(D) 61%, Spencer(R) 34%
Clinton(D) 61%, McFarland(R) 32%
New York Senate (primaries):
GOP: Spencer(R) 36%, McFarland(R) 15%
DEM: Clinton(D) 83%, Tasini(D) 13%
New York Governor:
Spitzer(D) 69%, Faso(R) 20%
New York Governor (primaries):
DEM: Spitzer(D) 75%, Suozzi(D) 10%
posted by Scott Elliott at 10:20am 07/21/06 ::
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| Thursday, July 20, 2006 |
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| Georgia tracking initiated |
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I've updated the Georgia state page with the primary results and initiated tracking for
the state.
posted by Scott Elliott at 6:05pm 07/20/06 ::
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| The Big Dig - who's to blame? |
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Some of you may be keeping track of the gross and
tragic
disaster that is the I-95 tunnel through Boston. Dubbed "The Big Dig," this project has to be one of the worst public works ventures in recent memory.
Who's to blame? Eric Lindholm shares some insightful commentary
over at Viking Pundit. Be sure to check it out.
posted by Scott Elliott at 5:15pm 07/20/06 ::
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| Election Projection - 5 millionth visitor |
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Amid all the technical difficulties yesterday, a huge milestone was reached here at Election Projection. Around 11pm last
night, the 5 millionth visitor, since May 14, 2004, showed up at my virtual door. When I started this website, I could never have dreamed of such
numbers. All I can say is how grateful I am to all of you for making Election Projection so popular. Thanks from my heart to you all!
Wow!
posted by Scott Elliott at 12:10pm 07/20/06 ::
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| Daily Poll Report |
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Quinnipiac
Connecticut Senate:
Lieberman(D) 68%, Schlesinger(R) 15%
Lamont(D) 45%, Schlesinger(R) 22%
Lieberman(I) 51%, Lamont(D) 27%, Schlesinger(R) 9%
Connecticut Senate:
Lamont(D) 51%, Lieberman(D) 47%
Rasmussen
Wyoming Senate:
Thomas(R) 59%, Groutage(D) 32%
Wyoming Governor:
Freudenthal(D) 58%, Hunkins(R) 29%
Wisconsin Senate:
Kohl(D) 60%, Lorge(R) 27%
Wisconsin Governor:
Doyle(D) 47%, Green(R) 41%
Strategic Vision
Pennsylvania Senate:
Casey(D) 50%, Santorum(R) 40%
Pennsylvania Governor:
Rendell(D) 49%, Swann(R) 36%, Diamond(I) 2%
Wisconsin Governor:
Doyle(D) 43%, Green(R) 42%
State Page Updates
Georgia | Pennsylvania | Wyoming
posted by Scott Elliott at 6:00pm 07/20/06 ::
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| Wednesday, July 19, 2006 |
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| We have experienced technical difficulties |
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Have you been wondering what happened to the Daily Poll Report this morning? Well, all day today something was wrong with
my FTP site, and I couldn't upload any changes to the website. I regret that, but sometimes in the virtual world, there are real pot holes.
Hopefully, such technical difficulties will not interfere in the future.
posted by Scott Elliott at 9:30pm 07/19/06 ::
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| Daily Poll Report |
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Rasmussen
Rhode Island Senate:
Whitehouse(D) 46%, Chafee(R) 41%
Whitehouse(D) 57%, Laffey(R) 29%
Rhode Island Governor:
Fogarty(D) 43%, Carcieri(R) 42%
State Page Updates
Rhode Island
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:35am 07/19/06 ::
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| Tuesday, July 18, 2006 |
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| Georgia primary today |
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Check here for the results starting
later this evening.
posted by Scott Elliott at 12:00pm 07/18/06 ::
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| Daily Poll Report |
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Mason Dixon
Colorado Governor:
Ritter(D) 42%, Beauprez(R) 35%
Rasmussen
Colorado Governor:
Ritter(D) 42%, Beauprez(R) 37%
Maryland Senate:
Cardin(D) 47%, Steele(R) 41%
Steele(R) 45%, Mfume(D) 44%
Maryland Governor:
O'Malley(D) 49%, Ehrlich(R) 42%
Nebraska Senate:
Nelson(D) 57%, Ricketts(R) 31%
Nebraska Governor:
Heineman(R) 66%, Hahn(D) 21%
SurveyUSA
Arizona Senate:
Kyl(R) 52%, Pederson(D) 40%
Nevada Governor (primaries):
GOP: Gibbons(R) 44%, Beers(R) 23%, Hunt(R) 16%
DEM: Titus(D) 42%, Gibson(D) 39%, McConnell(D) 6%
Ohio CD-13:
Sutton(D) 48%, Foltin(R) 30%
State Page Updates
Arizona | Colorado | Nebraska
posted by Scott Elliott at 10:05am 07/18/06 ::
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| Monday, July 17, 2006 |
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| Zogby's in my doghouse |
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| During the 2000 election season, pollster Scott Rasmussen was way off. Just before the election, he had Bush with an 8 or 9 point
lead over Gore. We all know how close that contest turned out to be. As a result, Rasmussen's national presidential polls were not used
in calculating The Blogging Caesar's 2004 Election Projection. Looking back, his polling was much improved that year, so he earned an exit visa
from my doghouse. His polls will be included in this year's projections.
John Zogby's polls, on the other hand, will not be used this year. After his dismal performance in 2004, Zogby is the one who has taken
up residence in The Blogging Caesar's doghouse. Earlier this year, I explained in detail
how bad Zogby's polls were. Like Rasmussen, he may have corrected the problems with
his polls. Until he proves that to be the case, he will remain in the doghouse and out of my projections.
posted by Scott Elliott at 9:30pm 07/17/06 ::
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| Daily Poll Report |
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Quinnipiac
New Jersey Senate:
Kean(R) 40%, Menendez(D) 38%
Baltimore Sun
Maryland Senate:
Cardin(D) 47%, Steele(R) 36%
Mfume(D) 42%, Steele(R) 40%
Maryland Senate (primaries):
DEM: Cardin(D) 32%, Mfume(D) 28%
Maryland Governor:
O'Malley(D) 46%, Erhlich(R) 38%
Star Tribune
Minnesota Senate:
Klobuchar(D) 50%, Kennedy(R) 31%
Minnesota Governor:
Pawlenty(R) 43%, Hatch(D) 41%
Soonerpoll
Oklahoma Governor:
Henry(D) 57%, Istook(R) 29%
Henry(D) 54%, Sullivan(R) 26%
Henry(D) 63%, Williamson(R) 16%
Oklahoma Governor (primaries):
GOP: Istook(R) 36%, Sullivan(R) 10%, Evanoff(R) 7%, Williamson(R) 2%
Detroit Free Press
Michigan Senate:
Stabenow(D) 49%, Bouchard(R) 29%
Stabenow(D) 50%, Butler(R) 26%
Michigan Governor:
DeVos(R) 47%, Granholm(D) 42%
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:00am 07/17/06 ::
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| Poll: Where do you stand on illegal drug laws? |
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The latest edition of Election Projection's Weekly Poll is up. Continuing the theme of issue-based polls, this week's poll
looks at illegal drugs. Some people point to crime and gang violence to suggest our society would be better off ending the prohibition of certain
drugs. Others feel the negative impact of condoning drug use by making it legal would far surpass the hardships our nation experiences dur to
illegal drug traffiking. What do you think? Please participate in the poll located in the right sidebar.
posted by Scott Elliott at 12:00am 07/17/06 ::
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| Saturday, July 15, 2006 |
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| Presenting the 2006 Election Projection formula |
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After a few sputtering starts, The Blogging Caesar is finally done creating the formula I will use to project this year's
mid-term elections. You can read the explanations in excruciating detail here. I believe the result will be
an accurate picture of how the elections stand if the voting took place today. That is an important phrase to remember when looking at the
numbers. This formula does not attempt to guage how the elections will turn out in November. Instead, it gives a snapshot of what would
happen "if the election were held today." But just as in 2004, as we get closer to Election Day, it will be a much better predictor of the
eventual outcome.
posted by Scott Elliott at 7:10pm 07/15/06 ::
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| State updates complete |
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| I'm happy to announce that I've completed a run through all 50 states. The state pages now contain current information,
and tracking has been initiated for all races in which both parties' candidates are known. Some interesting outcomes appeared once I applied the
new formula to the contests. I will be posting a description of the formulas I'm using this year soon, but I did want to point out a new race
rating designation.
With the inclusion of actual data in my projection calculations, I am able to assign a race rating based on the numerical result of projection
formulas. Starting with this update, any race projected to be within 5 points will be designated as "weak". If the result is projected to be
between 5 and 15 points, it will be designated "moderate" or "mod" for short. Any race over 15 points is considered to be "strong". These
general designations will be used on the projection page; the actual number values can be found on the individual state pages.
I hope everyone is as excited as I am now that Election Projection is actively tracking and projecting all the hot races. It's going to be an
interesting 4 months. Y'all stick around, and we'll have lots of fun between now and Election Day.
Here are some of the more notable changes:
Missouri Senate - from Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain
California Governor - from Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain
Maine Governor - from Weak DEM Hold to Weak GOP Gain
Michigan Governor - from Weak DEM Hold to Weak GOP Gain
Oregon Governor - from Weak DEM Hold to Weak GOP Gain
Pennsylvania Governor - from Weak DEM Hold to Strong DEM Hold
Indiana CD9 - from Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain
Illinois CD8 - from Weak GOP Gain to Weak DEM Hold
Oh, by the way, I'll also have news about commenting on this site in the next few days.
posted by Scott Elliott at 1:45pm 07/15/06 ::
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| Friday, July 14, 2006 |
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| Daily Poll Report |
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Rasmussen
California Senate:
Feinstein(D) 60%, Mountjoy(R) 33%
California Governor:
Angelides(D) 46%, Schwarzenegger(R) 44%
Illinois Governor:
Blagojevich(D) 45%, Topinka(R) 34%
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:05am 07/14/06 ::
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| Thursday, July 13, 2006 |
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| Daily Poll Report |
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Strategic Vision
Georgia Governor (primaries):
DEM: Taylor(D) 48%, Cox(D) 42%
SurveyUSA
California CD-50:
Bilbray(R) 51%, Busby(D) 40%
Massachusetts Governor (primaries):
DEM: Patrick(D) 37%, Gabrieli(D) 27%, Reilly(D) 26%
posted by Scott Elliott at 10:00am 07/13/06 ::
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| Wednesday, July 12, 2006 |
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| Daily Poll Report |
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Rasmussen
Massachusetts Governor:
Patrick(D) 43%, Healey(R) 23%, Mihos(I) 15%
Reilly(D) 39%, Healey(R) 27%, Mihos(I) 17%
Gabrielli(D) 42%, Healey(R) 24%, Mihos(I) 15%
Strategic Vision
New Jersey Senate:
Menendez(D) 43%, Kean(R) 37%
SurveyUSA
Michingan Senate (primaries):
GOP: Bouchard(R) 51%, Butler(R) 25%
Florida Senate (primaries):
GOP: Harris(R) 51%, McBride(R) 14%, Collins(R) 8%, Monroe(R) 3%
Maine Governor:
Woodcock(R) 43%, Baldacci(D) 41%
posted by Scott Elliott at 1:40pm 07/12/06 ::
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| Tuesday, July 11, 2006 |
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| Daily Poll Report |
|---|
Rasmussen
Montana Senate:
Tester(D) 50%, Burns(R) 43%
SurveyUSA
Michigan Senate (primaries):
GOP: Bouchard(R) 51%, Butler(R) 25%
posted by Scott Elliott at 10:00am 07/11/06 ::
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| Monday, July 10, 2006 |
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| Updates underway |
|---|
I've finalized the formulas for this year's mid-term elections and started posting updates to the state pages. It's a big
job, so I still have a ways to go before all the states are done. You can see which states have been updated each day by looking at the state
update section in the right sidebar.
posted by Scott Elliott at 9:45am 07/10/06 ::
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| Wednesday, July 5, 2006 |
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| Preparing for the stretch run |
|---|
The Blogging Caesar is busy preparing for the meat of this election season. I'm working on updating all the state pages
with primary results and projection tracking. I hope to be caught up by Monday.
posted by Scott Elliott at 5:15pm 07/05/06 ::
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