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| Saturday, July 15, 2006 |
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| State updates complete |
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| I'm happy to announce that I've completed a run through all 50 states. The state pages now contain current information,
and tracking has been initiated for all races in which both parties' candidates are known. Some interesting outcomes appeared once I applied the
new formula to the contests. I will be posting a description of the formulas I'm using this year soon, but I did want to point out a new race
rating designation.
With the inclusion of actual data in my projection calculations, I am able to assign a race rating based on the numerical result of projection
formulas. Starting with this update, any race projected to be within 5 points will be designated as "weak". If the result is projected to be
between 5 and 15 points, it will be designated "moderate" or "mod" for short. Any race over 15 points is considered to be "strong". These
general designations will be used on the projection page; the actual number values can be found on the individual state pages.
I hope everyone is as excited as I am now that Election Projection is actively tracking and projecting all the hot races. It's going to be an
interesting 4 months. Y'all stick around, and we'll have lots of fun between now and Election Day.
Here are some of the more notable changes:
Missouri Senate - from Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain
California Governor - from Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain
Maine Governor - from Weak DEM Hold to Weak GOP Gain
Michigan Governor - from Weak DEM Hold to Weak GOP Gain
Oregon Governor - from Weak DEM Hold to Weak GOP Gain
Pennsylvania Governor - from Weak DEM Hold to Strong DEM Hold
Indiana CD9 - from Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain
Illinois CD8 - from Weak GOP Gain to Weak DEM Hold
Oh, by the way, I'll also have news about commenting on this site in the next few days.
posted by Scott Elliott at 1:45pm 07/15/06 ::
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