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  Politics and Elections
Monday, July 15, 2013

Initial preliminary 2014 Senate projections
The current balance of power in the Senate stands at 54-46 in favor of the Democrats.  However, this count includes the Republican-held seat in New Jersey which will almost certainly flip to blue in this October's special election there.  So, effectively, we're looking at 55-45 heading into next year's midterm elections.  In order to gain the majority in the Senate, the GOP will have to capitalize fully on what should be a Republican year in 2014.  They'll need to earn a six-seat net gain to achieve that lofty goal.

So how does the political landscape in the Senate look 16 months out?  It looks like Senate Republicans are indeed set to gain seats, but perhaps not enough to recapture the chamber.  Here is Election Projection's first stab at some preliminary projections.

NOTE:  These are 'preliminary' projections because no formulaic data has been used to arrive at them.  'Official' projections won't begin showing up until the spring next year as candidates are chosen and polls are taken.

Weak DEM

  • Alaska - Mark Begich
  • Arkansas - Pryor
  • Iowa - OPEN (Harkin)
  • Louisiana - Mary Landrieu
  • North Carolina - Kay Hagan
  • Weak GOP

  • Montana - OPEN (Baucus)
  • South Dakota - OPEN (Johnson)
  • Mod DEM

  • Michigan - OPEN (Levin)
  • Minnesota - Al Franken
  • New Hampshire - Jeanne Shaheen
  • Mod GOP

  • Kentucky - Mitch McConnell
  • West Virginia - OPEN (Rockefeller)
  • Strong DEM

  • Colorado - Mark Udall
  • Hawaii - Brian Shatz
  • Massachusetts - Ed Markey
  • Oregon - Jeff Merkley
  • Virginia - Mark Warner
  • Strong GOP

  • Georgia - OPEN (Chambliss)
  • Maine - Susan Collins?
  • Nebraska - Mike Johanns
  • Solid DEM

  • Delaware - Chris Coons
  • Illinois - Richard Durbin
  • New Jersey (pending November 2013 special election)
  • New Mexico - Tom Udall
  • Rhode Island - Jack Reed
  • Solid GOP

  • Alabama - Jeff Sessions
  • Idaho - Jim Risch
  • Kansas - Pat Roberts
  • Mississippi - Thad Cochran?
  • Oklahoma - James Inhofe
  • South Carolina - Lindsay Graham
  • South Carolina (special) - Tim Scott
  • Tennessee - Lamar Alexander
  • Texas - John Cornyn
  • Wyoming - Mike Enzi
  • With three projected takeovers - Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia - the GOP is currently halfway to six.  Other reasonable takeover targets are limited to five - Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana and North Carolina.  That means Republicans must win 6 of 8 competitive Democratic seats while protecting their own somewhat vulnerable senator, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, in Kentucky to gain control.



    Filed under: 2014 Senate Elections 



    posted by Scott Elliott at 11:29pm 07/15/13::
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