For Republicans, the initial tendency is to dismiss the results out of hand, figuring such inconsistency of partisan participation belies an agenda on the part of the pollster.  Such a conclusion might be justifiable for a blue-tilted firm like PPP, but SurveyUSA does not fit that mold.  In 2004, SurveyUSA was one of the most accurate polling companies, correctly picking 13 out of 14 battleground states in which they conducted polls.

So let's assume for a moment that these partisan numbers are appropriate.  We must then conclude that McCain is headed for a bountiful drubbing in November barring some radical turnaround.  Still, it is difficult to conceive that Democrats comprise nearly twice as much of the voting public in Ohio as Republicans do.  If only there were a way to know.  In fact, we do have some concrete data on which to test the makeup of voters this year.  That data?  The voters this year.

We just happen to be going through a primary season in which real voters have cast real votes.  Perhaps we can gather useful information from those results.  To that end, I have tabulated the results of all primaries (not caucuses) held between January 1 and Super Tuesday on February 5.  I omitted primary contests after Super Tuesday since the presumptive Republican nominee, John McCain, had been all but decided by then.  What I found is a staggering advantage for the Democrats.

During that time period, Americans cast 25.3 million ballots in 17 states, excluding Florida, and Democrats accumulated nearly 62% of them!  Let me put that number into proper perspective.  In 2004, the Democratic cut in those 17 states was just 51.2%.  If we transpose those numbers to Ohio, where 2004 exit polls gave a 5-point partisan advantage to the GOP, we can start to draw some quantitative conclusions.

In 2004, Democrats edged Republicans by 2.5% in the group of primary states I've included in this test.  This year, that advantage ballooned to 23.2%, a 20.7% change.  It follows that, all things being equal, the partisan breakdown in Ohio would change from a 5 point edge for the GOP in 2004 to a Democratic advantage of almost 16 points this year.  So how do the polls from PPP and SurveyUSA stand up to this test?  Not too well.  However - and this is a scary thought for Republicans - they are no more off the mark than a poll giving Democrats a six to eight point advantage.

Bottom line?  Obama may not be winning Ohio by a dozen right now, but it's hard to justify denying that he is winning.  And that's 20 critical electoral votes currently in Obama's column that President Bush picked up in 2004.  But there's more.  The election does not begin and end in Ohio.  Many battleground states will fall into Obama's column if the precedent set in January and early February is duplicated on Election Day.  Unless something happens to quell the enormous enthusiasm permeating Democratic circles nationwide, the presidential election of 2008 may look a lot like the one in 1980 with a great communicator of a different stripe leading the way.

While I'm typing this up, let me offer an explanation for the decidedly pro-McCain movement in today's " State of the States."  Two national polls previously used timed out of my calculations.  It happens that both gave Obama a much larger lead than more recent national polls have.  As a result, even though no specific state polls were released to move the numbers, McCain benefitted from having those polls drop off.  All this will make more sense once I publish the formula I'm using this year.  (Yes, I will be posting the formula soon - still busy with other aspects of the website redesign)

If you do come across problems, please email me at thebloggingcaesar@electionprojection.com, and together we can fix any issues I've overlooked in my development.

Also, you'll probably notice some of the features have not been implemented yet and others still have the old look and feel to them.  Over time, we'll get these corrected as well.