Update:  Some more info on the West Virginia vacancy law.  From Karl...

Update2:  Politico.com has published an article about the WV succession law.



Filed under:  Senate  West Virginia  WV Senate 

Twenty-four years ago today, I made the second most important decision in my life. Next to accepting Jesus as my Lord and Savior, saying "I do" to Leia Louise Fairchild was the best choice I've ever made. My dearest Leia, I still do.



Filed under:  The Blogging Caesar 

The House rankings did not move much this update.  North Dakota's Earl Pomeroy (D) saw his vulnerability rise the most.  His seat is rated the 25th most vulnerable today, rising 5 spots from 30th.  Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin of South Dakota enters the list for the first time at 30th place.

The big move in the gubernatorial rankings are the rankings themselves.  No longer can all vulnerable governor's races be contained in 20 slots.  Therefore, this edition has expanded to 25.  As a result, several new races made the list.  Debuting all the way up at 12th is the open statehouse race in New Mexico.  Two other newcomers, Maryland and Maine, enter the rankings at 18th and 23rd, respectively.  One big tumble on this list to report.  The statehouse in Vermont seems much more likely to remain in Republican hands in light of recent polling.  That race falls 10 spots from 6th to 16th.



Filed under:  Vulnerability rankings  House 

Until now, that is.

I feel quite a bit differently today after stumbling across the most important and telling poll I've seen in this cycle.  The poll tests the 60 Democratic and 10 Republican House seats deemed to be the most vulnerable.  The findings are nothing short of remarkable.  From the top line numbers to the in depth analysis, the survey reveals an overwhelming red wave barreling its way toward November 2nd.

I'm going to evaluate and respond to several aspects of the poll's results, but before that, I want to let the Democratic polling firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner react to their own work.  (Actually, they collaborated with a Republican counterpart, Public Opinion Strategies, in conducting the poll.)  Here's part of what GQR had to say.

But there's more to be happy in this survey if you like red political maps.  Again, from GQR's own analysis.

But the good news doesn't end there.  Beyond an enthusiasm gap, these Democratic districts are witnessing a mass exodus from Democratic candidates.  In 2008, survey respondents in blue districts voted for the Democratic congressional candidate by double-digit margins in both Tier 1 (48-37%) and Tier 2 (50-35%) races.  Computing the difference between those numbers and the poll's findings for 2010, Republicans enjoy 20-point and 17-point improvements in Tier 1 and Tier 2 districts, respectively.

So what's driving this enthusiasm, and is it sustainable?  According to Talking Points Memo's analysis of the survey, unless Democrats change their narrative on the issues or succeed in winning back voters to their way of thinking, these numbers are not likely to change in their favor.  Republicans win hands down not just as un-Democrats, but as better alternatives on the issues.

Clearly, after experiencing the effects of complete Democratic control in Washington for the last 18 months, voters seem eager to give Republicans another chance in 2010.



Filed under:  2010 Elections  House  The Republican Party  The Democratic Party 

I'm very excited about the opportunity I had to interview Republican Renee Ellmers. She is the GOP nominee challenging incumbent Democrat Bob Etheridge in North Carolina's 2nd District. While some would call her a longshot to win here, this is exactly the kind of race that can be won if the right kind of Republican wave makes political landfall on November 2.

EP:  Earlier this year, Club for Growth released their scorecard for 2009 which measures fiscal responsibility among lawmakers on Capitol Hill.  Your opponent, Bob Etheridge achieved a 6% score.  If elected, how important would it be for you to rate higher on that scale and how would your fiscal policy decisions differ from Mr. Etheridge?

Ms. Ellmers:  Well, if I don’t score higher than 6%, I’ll give up and come home.  My philosophy is conservative and "Fiscal Conservatism" is more than just a label to me.  Congressman Etheridge refers to himself as a "Fiscally Conservative Democrat," but I’ve yet to see that reflected in his voting record.  My goal will be to decrease spending, lower taxes (to stimulate job growth in the short-term), and then work toward comprehensive tax reform such as the Fair Tax.  These policies – plus decreasing regulations on small businesses – will create jobs.

EP:  You are a nurse by vocation and your husband is a doctor.  Talk for a moment about how you believe the health care bill passed by Congress will affect American families in general and health care providers, like you and your husband, specifically.

Ms. Ellmers:  Let me start out by saying that Nancy Pelosi and company forcing the healthcare bill through Congress may be the most detrimental piece of legislation to affect our country ever.  If elected I am going to work tirelessly to defund, dismantle and eventually repeal the bill.

American families and businesses will be affected by Obama-care starting January 1, 2011, when Obama-care tax increases start.  All citizens will be affected with an increase to the national debt.

Also, I am sad to say that the passage of the healthcare bill has already had a negative effect on physician practices.  In our area of North Carolina we have seen one outstanding specialist retire early; a bright, young primary care physician relocate; multiple practices have experienced drops in volume and revenue; and a few have sent out notifications to patients that they will no longer be taking Medicare.

The long and the short of it is if these trends continue there will be irreparable harm to the quality of healthcare in America.

EP:  That's why I believe we need folks like you in Washington - and the sooner the better!  Let's move to another hot button issue.  The immigration law passed recently in Arizona has caused quite an uproar across the nation.  It has been interesting to me to hear the mischaracterizations of the law among Democrats who, in many cases, haven't even read it.  What do you think this says about the attitude of Democratic leadership toward the issue of illegal immigration?

Ms. Ellmers:  I think the Democrats best illustrated their attitudes about illegal immigration when they all stood up in Congress to applaud Mexican President Calderon when he stated that he was against the Arizona immigration bill.  Who's country do they represent?

I support Arizona Governor Jan Brewer.  I think she has shown rare courage.  And the kind of leadership we have not seen in a long time.  The federal government has not enforced the immigration laws – literally leaving Arizona no choice but to pass and enforce their own, which states have the right to do under the 10th Amendment.  But I think the Obama administration will continue to perpetuate distortions in the hope that they can intimidate Arizona into backing off.

EP:  Judging from the things I've heard from Governor Brewer, I don't see that happening.  Now, few would argue that illegal immigration is a national security concern.  Along those same lines, would you discuss your impressions of President Obama's foreign policy as it relates to radical Islamic terrorism?  How would you advise the Obama administration to approach the issue of keeping Americans safe against this ongoing threat?

Ms. Ellmers:  The first step is simple:  President Obama has to recognize – and tell the American people – he understands radical Islamic terrorism does exist.  He also has to understand that our country is great because of our American exceptionalism – and not arrogance.  His repeated apologetic remarks regarding America to other nations, both ally and enemy, must end and be replaced with a message of strength.  I would also advise President Obama to step-up support for our military and discuss military strategies focused on success rather than exit dates.

EP:  Sounds like the right strategy to me!  Ok, let's talk a little about the upcoming elections.  Tuesday night, we watched Rand Paul, an open and enthusiastic voice of the Tea Party movement, win by a huge margin over an establishment Republican in the Senate primary in Kentucky.  How do you view the Tea Party movement and what do you expect its impact in November will be?

Ms. Ellmers:  I am a big fan of the Tea Party movement.  In fact, it was the Tea Party and Healthcare rallies that got me motivated to start speaking out.  Which led to my running for Congress.  I attended Tea Parties here in the Raleigh area, and my husband and I got involved with Americans for Prosperity's "Hands Off My Heathcare" Tour.

I think the Tea Party will have a significant effect on the November elections.  If it doesn’t we’re in trouble.

EP:  During the 1994 Republican surge that won over fifty seats in the House, Fred Heineman won against Democrat David Price over in the 4th district in an upset no one saw coming.  Right now, your race with Etheridge is not on the national radar.  Do you see similarities between this year's political climate and 1994?

Ms. Ellmers:  I do.  The 1994 election was voters saying no to Clinton’s march to the left after being elected in 1992.  Obama has gone much further left than even Clinton.  A lot of my district is rural, and small town voters – in both parties – are upset about the direction of the country.  My race is not on the national radar because we just finished the Primary and because it’s standard political wisdom incumbents like Congressman Etheridge are tough to unseat.  But 1994 showed that can be wrong and this election in November could be 1994 on Steroids!  The American people have shown over the last year that they have had ENOUGH politics as usual and want to STOP the direction our great country is headed in under Obama and Pelosi.

EP:  1994 on steroids - I like that.  Ok, in conclusion, let me open the floor for you to take a moment to share a bit of what you want voters of the 2nd District to know about you and why you are the right person to represent them in Congress next year.

Ms. Ellmers:  I am a nurse, wife and a mom. I believe that we are "...One Nation Under God..." and that our Constitution was divinely inspired and is as relevant today as it was when it was written by our Founding Fathers.

Like every person in the 2nd District who has watched our president "fundamentally transform" our great country, I am concerned for our children’s – my son’s – future.  I am not a politician, have never wanted to be and hope I never will be.  But I am deeply concerned, and I will not stand by and watch my son's future sacrificed at the altar of "social justice" through a series of manipulations masked as "reforms" for the end purpose of mass redistribution of wealth.

My personal beliefs are simple:  Less government; lower taxes; strong national defense.  I am a fiscal and social conservative.  I believe that prosperity and success come from each of us when we work hard to achieve, not from a government handout.

In Washington, my opponent Congressman Bob Etheridge votes with Nancy Pelosi 97% of the time and has shown that he will continue to do so despite what the citizens of District 2 think.  He voted for the Healthcare Bill, Cap and Trade, Death Tax, Stimulus, TARP and is a proponent of Card Check.  I have spoken to thousands of voters who have told me "Bob Etheridge has sold us out."  And I agree.  I wouldn’t be a candidate for Congress if I didn’t.

EP:  Amen to that!  Ms. Ellmers, thank you so much for taking the time for this interview.  I for one - and by no means the only one - am rooting for you to represent North Carolinians in the 2nd district in Congress come next January.  Best to you and your family.

Ms. Ellmers:  Thank you, Scott, for your thoughtful questions and your support.  I am grateful for the opportunity to share my thoughts and vision for our great country and look forward to the months ahead.

Please click here for a video message from Ms. Ellmers.  And then visit her website to offer your support.



Filed under:  Adopt-a-race, NC-2  Renee Ellmers 

Judging from the surveys most polling firms are releasing, the red wave will be noticeable but not tsunami-like.  Senate seats in North Dakota, Arkansas and Indiana and House seats in Ohio (1st & 15th), Tennessee (6th), New York (29th) and Louisiana (3rd) appear headed to the red column.  Others will follow, but trying to identify which ones and how many depends largely on whose polls you read.

If Rasmussen is your standard-bearer, you are getting ready for a red tsunami as big as we've seen, perhaps topping 1994's historic Republican landslide.  Just today, Rasmussen Reports released a congressional test giving the generic Republican candidate a massive 10-point lead over the generic Democrat.  If that is true, look out in November!  On the other hand, other polling firms show the generic test about even with the generic Democrat perhaps enjoying a slight advantage.  These results would produce a status-quo election in which only a few net seats flip.

Before you deride Scott Rasmussen for being a Republican hack - as many who have written me have done - there is an important distinction to draw between his results and most of the rest.  From Fox News to Gallup, from Public Policy Polling to ABC News, the majority of survey takers simply poll registered voters.  Rasmussen makes an effort to model who will actually vote on Election Day and uses only likely voters to determine his numbers.  That's how he consistently releases polls in which the Republican in any given race performs much better than in everybody else's.

It is important to note here that Republicans are the ones benefiting from a likely voter model.  This reflects another important polling fact which has been confirmed by firms other than Rasmussen - survey participants who say they are "highly motivated" to vote favor Republican candidates, sometimes by huge margins.  Case in point: in a Gallup survey released last month, 45% of self-described conservatives were "very enthusiastic" about voting, compared to just 26% of liberals who felt that way.  If the electorate in November is comprised of proportions similar to these enthusiastic voters, Democrats almost everywhere are in trouble.

Therein lies one of the biggest unknowns surrounding President Obama's first mid-terms - who will get out and vote.  If Rasmussen's model is right, Republicans will far outnumber Democrats in voting lines on November 2nd.  But more than that, even he could be underestimating the GOP advantage if the likely voter model implied by Gallup's enthusiasm gap rules the day.  However, it is also entirely possible that voter fervor will even out some between now and then, and more moderate Democratic losses will be the outcome.

In Election Projection's view, a compromise between Rasmussen's rosy Republican picture and the status quo of registered voter surveys is a safer bet.  That's why I am content to incorporate both polling perspectives into my formula's calculations.  Some of Rasmussen's detractors have predicted to me that his numbers will slowly begin to move toward the others as the election nears.  I tend to believe the opposite.  As other polling firms begin to model likely voters in their election tests, they will, in fact, to move toward Rasmussen.

Let's consider the House as I explain why.  Normally, a sitting president stands to lose a substantial number of seats in the lower chamber.  Yet, given the generic congressional tests I've seen from most everyone other than Rasmussen, Obama looks to be set to break even this year.  That's the kind of mid-term election a popular president in a positive political climate might expect.

But neither is true this year.  Far from it.  Voter anger and disillusion with the powers in charge in Washington are extensive and strong.  Only Rasmussen's polling - and some polls coming from SurveyUSA - seem to acknowledge any measure of unrest at all among voters.  Unless others start noticing what's going on out there and attempt to identify those among the registered who will indeed cast ballots, they - not Rasmussen - will wipe the egg from the face on November 3rd.



Filed under:  2010 Elections  House  Polling firms 

Apparently, though, it is more than his ideology that puts him at odds with me and most of his constituents.  A video on YouTube reveals that he also harbors an elitest abrasive streak.  You really need to watch this clip of the congressman's interaction with students on a Washington DC sidewalk.  We can do better than that.  We need to defeat Bob Etheridge.

Update:  You can help elect Renee by clicking here and contributing what you can.

Update2:  John Hawkins at Right Wing News has Renee's press release in response to Etheridge's actions.



Filed under:  Adopt-a-race, NC-2  The Democratic Party  House  North Carolina  NC House 

Here are the states conducting primary or runoff elections today and their poll closing times.

Looking at other outcomes of interest in New Mexico Tuesday, we see Steve Pearce moved on to face the man who took his place in Congress two years ago.  His match-up with Harry Teague in District 2 starts out in the challenger's favor, but this is sure to be another close one.

Here is the list of winners.

Update:  Correction.  A reader reminded me that Harry Teague did not oust Steve Pearce two years ago.  Pearce actually left the seat for a failed run at the Senate.



Filed under:  New Mexico  NM House  NM Governor 

Enter Gallup:  When participants in their latest survey were asked for whom they are more likely to vote in their House district, the generic Republican candidate earned the nod from 49% while just 43% favor the generic Democrat.  That 6-point lead is the largest enjoyed by the GOP over the last 3 months as reported on Gallup's website.  This could be an outlier, to be sure, but the result cannot be ignored.  And if next week's numbers match this week's, the coming red wave, which has seemed to be waning of late, may be roaring back.

Update:  It turns out that Gallup's result is the largest margin ever attained by the GOP in the generic ballot test.



Filed under:  House 

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