On the other hand, when the pool of respondents is pared down to likely voters alone, that approval number nears 50%.  Furthermore, a full 71% say they like Schwarzenegger personally, including an impressive majority (57%) of Democrats.  Things are definitely looking up for Ahnold right now.  I'm not willing to pull the trigger and change this race's rating just yet, but I am fighting the urge.  Stay tuned...

If that riduculous idea becomes law, we will be able to say for sure, at least in this case, that crime really does pay.

Here's part one.
Here's part two.

Welcome to my blogroll Kartik.

Verseoftheday.com, a daily devotional website Mrs. Blogging Caesar visits every day, had a most appropriate scripture reference today in view of Abdul Rahman's current predicament.  It comes from Philippians 1:29:

For it has been granted to you on behalf of Christ not only to believe on him, but also to suffer for him.

Phil Ware, the site's editor, adds these thoughts...

When we read the book of Acts, we find the disciples overjoyed at suffering "for the sake of the name."  Since Jesus has already victoriously passed through that kind of ordeal, we should consider it a privilege [] to share in his sufferings, not just a hardship.  The truth of our commitment is often best shown to the skeptical when we are "under fire."  So let's keep our character when under attack and rejoice, because we've seen in Jesus what happens when God's children are faithful even at the cost of their lives.

So as we pray for Abdul and the rest of the body of believers in Afghanistan, may our prayers be that God will enable him to keep the faith until the end, even if that end (on earth) is premature.  We know that God is glorified the by good works of His saints in this life, for Jesus commands us in the gospel of Matthew to...

Let [our] light shine before men in such a way that they may see [our] good works, and glorify [our] Father who is in heaven.

Sometimes, though, beyond our good works, God requires of us our very earthly lives.  So, if the Lord sees fit to allow Abdul to die for Him in the presence of his captors, we can rest in the assurance that God is also glorified in the deaths of His saints.

Well, it is time to reveal which race has jumped to the other side of the aisle.  Is that drum rolling?  With the absolute worst approval rating in the Senate and a very damaging scandal hanging like a millstone from his neck, Conrad Burns is on political life-support.  He is trailing multiple Democratic candidates in the polls and is facing a battle in the GOP primary.  At this point, I'm rooting for State Senate Minority Leader Bob Keenan to take Burns out in the primary to preserve a fighting chance for the GOP to hold onto this seat.  Since I don't see that happening right now, this race has to be considered a weak DEM gain.  So there you have it, folks.  The Senate projection now stands at 53R, 46D, 1I.  Let the reactions begin...

As part of their focus on getting the word out about the conservative viewpoint and conservative solutions, Civitas invited a few bloggers to sit in and live-blog the proceedings at the institute's expense.  Yours truly was included among them, and I've accepted their generous offer!  This will be the first such event I've attended wearing my blogger's hat, so you can understand my excitement.

In addition to my reactions to the different issues forums, my readers will get a first-hand account of speeches by Arizona Representative J.D. Hayworth, Virginia Senator and probable 2008 presidential candidate George Allen, and other dignitaries.  I can't wait!  If you don't want to wade through my perspective here at Election Projection, you can actually be a part of the conference yourself.  If you are a conservative living in the Raleigh-Durham area or can make the trip here, Civitas is inviting you to attend.  Click here for more information on how to sign up.

As you probably already know, I only follow the Senate, House, and gubernatorial races here at Election Projection, so the notable news in this clip is the dead heat in which Gov. Granholm finds herself.  DeVos is performing much better than I had anticipated at this early point in the race, and with lots more of his own Amways and means to flood the airways with ads, he must be considered a near break-even bet against the incumbent.

Things change so rapidly in political campaigns so this poll doesn't move me to change my rating on this race.  That might come if we see a couple of polls over the next 6 weeks or so showing DeVos' gains continuing.  For now, though, I have to stick with Granholm, albeit with more hope of being wrong.

However, there will be a rating change coming tomorrow.  One of the 100+ races I'm currently tracking has shifted, and the result has produced a new call.  I'm going to post the change tomorrow night.  Until then, see if you can identify which one it will be.  Post your guess in the comment thread of this post.

In the race for the GOP nomination in Democrat Melissa Bean's 8th district, David McSweeney won comfortably over Kathy Salvi, giving him the early edge to represent this Republican-leaning district in 2007.  Iraqi veteran Tammy Duckworth, who lost both legs in a helicopter crash, did prevail in her primary race in district 6.  Her victory sets up another interesting race in this district.  The Blogging Caesar currently rates the race as possibly competitive.  We'll have to keep an eye on it as the campaign progresses to see if it merits being moved into the competitive category.

Turnout was very light and was not expected to get above 33%, the mark attained during the 2002 elections.  Check the Illnois state page to see the party nominees for the rest of the congressional races.

Here's the link where you can find more results than you'll ever need.

As for me, I'm signing off.  I'll have a recap up sometime tomorrow and will update Illinois' state page with any pertinent results.

In the GOP primary race to meet Gov. Blagojevich, Illinois will choose between pro-choicer and statewide office holder Treasurer Judy Topinka and several more conservative candidates.  She is favored to win the nomination and, if victorious, will make a formidable opponent for the weakened Democratic incumbent.  Though Illinois has moved sharply to the left, Blagojevich's troubles and the less-partisan nature of the governorship makes a GOP victory a good possibility with a strong standard-bearer.  As a staunch pro-lifer, The Blogging Caesar has mixed feelings about her candidacy, but things being what they are, I'll try to look at the bright side of a Topinka primary victory.  At least the GOP will put forth the one with the best chance to topple the incumbent.

Also, Betsy Newmark as gotten her blog back as well.  As I mentioned earlier, she had someone swipe her url while her site was gone.  Apparently, things have been worked out, and my fellow Raleighite is up and running again.  Welcome back, Betsy!

Aaahhh, all is well in the blogosphere.

I've been in contact with Eric, and he is weighing his options.  He's even thinking about hanging it up.  The blogosphere is better with the Viking at the helm.  I would like my readers to go over to his site - which I'm keeping safe for him - and enter a comment encouraging him to keep up the fight and stay at his post.

Help keep Viking Pundit alive!!

When I heard Harris was going to make an announcement, I got all excited thinking she was finally coming to her senses and leaving the race.  I had visions of a stronger candidate taking out the very vulnerable Bill Nelson and gaining a seat for the GOP.  But alas, her announcement was simply to reiterate her intentions to obliterate the GOP chances at defeating Nelson.

I have no problem with Harris - other than her candidacy in this race, that is.  I don't think, as many liberals do, that she acted out-of-line in 2000.  I think given more time and separation from that event, she might even be a force to contend with in Florida.  I just believe that time is several years off.  It may very well be that by rushing into this candidacy, she is sabotaging her own political future which might have been very bright indeed.  Pity for her, pity for Florida, pity for the GOP.

For those who aren't aware, my parents, Larry and Jean Elliott, served as international missionaries through the Southern Baptist Convention for 25 years in Honduras.  In 2004, they answered God's call to go to Iraq as relief workers dedicated to showing the Iraqi people God's love through humanitarian programs such as water purification projects.  Shortly after arriving in Iraq, while they were on fact-finding tour of the country, terrorists ambushed their car and killed four of the five occupants, including my parents, Karen Watson, and David McDonnall.  David's wife Carrie survived the attack but was severely wounded.

Last year, I wrote a letter to my parents that shared a bit of my heart one year later.  Every word of that letter is still true today.  This year, I thought I'd post some words I spoke at their memorial service a couple weeks after their passing.  The words are the lyrics to a popular Christian contemporary song which I rewrote to fit my parents' lives.  For those familiar with Ray Boltz, these words can be sung to the tune of "Thank you."

Thank You for Living for the Lord My father's gone to heaven and mother's with him there. They walk upon the streets of gold Bathed in the Father's care. Amid the angels singing Another sound they hear. They turn and see this young man And he is smiling ear to ear. And he said, "Friends you may not know me now" And then he said, "But see You shared with me in prison In 1973. So many times you would come to share I felt your love from the start. Then on my knee I said a prayer I asked Jesus in my heart." (Chorus) Thank you for living for the Lord I am a life that was changed. Thank you for living for the Lord I am so glad you gave. Now a couple comes up to them And says, "We remember the time You came into our foreign land We saw your love sublime. You lived in a house like ours; Your lives showed us the way To find abundant life in Christ. And that's why we're here today." (Chorus) One by one they're coming Far as the eye can see Each life somehow touched By your lives of charity. Jesus is glorified From the west unto the east Through the lives that you gave And now you're seated at the feast. Now that you're in heaven So many more will come. As you laid down your lives The Father's will was done. Now Jesus takes your hand And you stand before the Lord. He says, "Children look around you. Great is your reward." (Chorus twice)

The example of my parents lives is truly a testimony to the love and glory of our Heavenly Father.  I still miss them so much, but I know they are unimaginably happy in the arms of the Lord.

First, you probably noticed the summary banner near the top of the page.  That little feature will give my readers an at-a-glance status report on Election Projection's outlook.  Second, I've built an election calendar so you can track filing deadlines, primaries, and runoffs for all 50 states.

Finally, looking forward, I plan to keep a regular schedule of updates.  I hope everyone likes the changes.  Please come back everyday to get your election fix.  Oh, and spread the word to all your friends because the more folks come by, the more time I can justify investing in making the site even better.  For those of you who were with me in 2004, you know how much fun is in store here at Election Projection in the coming months.

Governor's Race:  Wyoming's similarities with Massachusetts don't stop at the non-competitiveness of its senate races.  They extend to the governorship as well.  Just as Massachusetts has been known to select a GOPer as governor, so too have Wyomingans felt good about electing a Democratic governor.  Dave Freudenthal won here in 2002, and he is well-positioned to return to Cheyenne again next year.  Cynthia Lummis, Wyoming state treasurer, and former state Rep. Fred Parady will benefit from Wyoming's deep red political makeup.  It won't be enough, though, for either of them to wrest the governorship away from the well-liked incumbent.  This race actually looks like a strong DEM hold right now.

Check out more on Wyoming here.

Governor's Race:  James Doyle is not quite as safe as Senator Kohl.  But the aforementioned ex-Governor Thompson doesn't appear to be up for the task of reclaiming his old job - a fact that allows Doyle to breathe a lot easier.  The two candidates on the GOP side are solid, but they likely don't have what it takes to win in November.  Congressman Mark Green will probably give Doyle a stiffer test than Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker.  Either one could pull an upset, but for now The Blogging Caesar gives the incumbent the edge.

House District 8:  A lot of money is flowing into this race for Mark Green's open seat.  From allergy clinic magnate Steve Kagen's deep pockets to Emily's List's backing of Nancy Nusbaum, the Democrats will be well-funded as they try to win this moderately heavy GOP district.  The GOP is not short on cash either with Wisconsin House Speaker John Gard sitting on nearly half-a-million at the end of 2005.  Gard is the favorite right now to win the nomination over fellow GOP House member Terri McCormick.

This is another House seat that leans toward the GOP but could swing the other way in the event of a stiff leftward breeze come early November.  For now, though, The Blogging Caesar is rating it a weak GOP hold with some minor reservations.

Check out more on Wisconsin here.

Had both these individuals chosen a different route, this race would be a weak GOP gain.  If one or the other had made a different choice, this race would be a weak DEM hold.  As it is, Byrd will win without problem - strong DEM hold.  In a state whose rightward drift has been more like a sharp right turn over the last two elections cycles, West Virginia's two Democratic senators will keep their seats until they decide to leave.  When that happens, mark the words of The Blogging Caesar:  Shelley Capito will become a senator.

Check out more on West Virginia here.

Many will recall the 2004 gubernatorial race here in which Christine Gregoire lost the race to Rossi and then found enough previously undiscovered votes in King County to be declared governor anyway.  (Ok, so I let a little bias show - that's still pretty much what happened.)  In the aftermath of that contested result, speculation swirled about Rossi's possibilities to unseat Cantwell in 2006.  Polls at the time showed him well ahead of the incumbent.  All that was for naught, however, and his conspicuous absence from the ballot gives Cantwell a strong advantage.  Still, with a moderate and wealthy GOP challenger in Safeco CEO Mike McGavick, the Senator must still be prepared for a fight.  Right now, The Blogging Caesar calls this one a weak DEM hold.

House District 8:  Dan Reichert is a conservative in a moderate suburban district.  He narrowly won his seat in 2004 due in part to his celebrity as a newsmaking sheriff.  From the get-go, Democrats have targeted Reichert as an incumbent vulnerable to defeat.  Former Microsoft executive Darcy Burner heads four women seeking the Democratic nomination, though Burner appears to be the heavy favorite.

Given his incumbency and his 5:1 fundraising advantage, The Blogging Caesar is calling this race a weak GOP hold.  However, if a stout gust is blowing nationally in the Democrats' direction come Election Day, this seat could be swept out from under Mr. Reichert.

Check out more on Washington here.

Some would say Allen will face at least a moderate threat in November from former Navy secretary James Webb or businessman Harris Miller.  The Blogging Caesar is not concerned.  I will be very surprised if Allen wins this race by less than 8 points.  Had Warner opted in, this race would be a tossup, and my job of picking one man or the other would be very difficult.  Instead, Allen will win comfortably.

Check out more on Virginia here.

With the Democrats in Vermont more than happy to see Mr. Sanders replace Jumpin' Jim, neither of the GOP's two possible nominees, healthcare entrepreneur Richard Tarrant and retired military man Gregory Parke, has much of a chance of winning.  Come to think of it, Democrat Larry Drown, who is also running, doesn't either.  The Blogging Caesar confidently calls this race the first and only strong IND hold.

Governor's Race:  In an uber-liberal state like Vermont, the GOP has managed to compete well for the Executive Mansion.  Moderate Republican incumbent Jim Douglas has served two terms as governor here, and Vermonters don't seem inclined to deny him a third term.  His 61% approval rating bodes well for his re-election chances in November.  Even in this liberal haven, State Senator Scudder Parker will have a real tough time unseating Governor Douglas.  Easy call:  Strong GOP hold.

At Large House District:  Although not listed as a competitive race, this seat merits discussion since it is a likely gain for the Democrats.  With Sanders' probable transfer to the opposite wing of the Capitol, State Senate President Pro Tem Peter Welch, a Democrat, is in line to take Sanders' current seat in the House.  Only a possible run by Progressive State Rep. David Zuckerman, which might split the liberal vote in Vermont, could give National Guard General and GOPer Martha Rainville a prayer of prevailing in this one.  Until then, the Democrat remains the heavy favorite.

Check out more on Vermont here.

Check out more on Utah here.

House District 22:  Perhaps no other Republican, save George W. Bush himself, is so hated among liberals in this country than Tom DeLay.  And the charges that have led to his much-publicized indictment have liberals jumping for joy at the chance to gain a Thune-vs.-Daschle-like unseating of their second-worst Republican enemy.

Unlike normal campaigns, this race features a settled nominee from the challenging party and a primary battle for the incumbent party.  DeLay should win the GOP nomination again, but Democrat Nick Lampson, a former U.S. representative, will be hard for the weakened incumbent to overcome.  As much as I wish for DeLay's fortunes to improve, I must go with the challenger to win and give liberals the revenge they've so long sought.

Check out more on Texas here.

Update:  I've tried not to add updates to these state previews.  I want to wait until I go through all of them before re-visiting any of them.  However, I missed a significant aspect of the 2006 elections in Texas.  That is the Texas redistricting case which is being heard in the courts.  A verdict which nullifies Texas' current congressional districts may have a far-reaching impact on the election.  And the effects are impossible to guage until that time comes.

One other note:  Perry faces not one but three note-worthy challengers - Democrat Chris Bell, and independent candidates Carole Strayhorn and Kinky Friedman.  All of these candidate could get over 10% of the vote.  That said, Perry will still win easily.  He may not get 50%, but his margin of victory will be comfortable.

Running on the Republican side are three legitimate candidates any one of whom will be formidable in the general election.  Former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker, a more moderate Republican, is facing two conservative former congressmen in Ed Bryant and Van Hilleary.  Hilleary lost the gubernatorial race in 2002 against current governor Phil Bredesen.

This primary race is a tough call, and the eventual winner will be in for a battle against Ford.  (Rosalind Kurita is also running for the Democratic nomination, but I don't expect her to threaten the high-profile Ford.)  However, all three are currently leading Ford in the polls.  One negative Ford has is his family.  Their troubles are probably a main reason Ford's unfavorable numbers are actually even with or greater than his favorables.  In the end, The Blogging Caesar believes Tennessee's slight GOP lean will be enough to carry the GOP to a weak hold here.

Governor's Race:  One strange aspect of the political situation here in 2006 is the miserable field of GOPers poised to challenge Democratic incumbent Phil Bredesen.  Even with Tennessee's redish hue, the GOP was unable to muster even a marginal candidate to face the one-term governor who narrowly won in 2002.  This is an easy call for The Blogging Caesar:  Strong DEM hold.

Check out more on Tennessee here.

Update:  Since it appears many are not responding to the poll, I figured I'd put this post back in rotation.  If you haven't voted yet, please do.

Check out more on South Dakota here.

State Senator Tommy Moore and Florence Mayor Frank Willis will fight it out in the primary for a chance to go up against Sanford, though several others are also contemplating a run.  However the Democratic primary turns out, The Blogging Caesar rates this race a strong GOP hold.

Check out more on South Carolina here.