Governor:  Domenici's name will be on the ballot again this year.  But it won't be the same race nor the same man.  Pete Domenici, Jr., the retired senator's son, is running for the GOP nomination for governor.  He is leading by double-digits against four others who also want the party nod and seems well-positioned to face the Democratic counterpart in the general election.  That one is sure to be Lt. Governor Diane Denish.  When no one else jumped in to challenge her to follow term-limited Democratic Governor Bill Richardson in the Democratic primary, her nomination became certain (today is the filing deadline in New Mexico).  Denish starts this race off well ahead of Domenici in the polls.  Even Rasmussen has her 17 points better in a recent poll.  I believe this race will tighten somewhat between now and November.  That's why I'm giving it a Mod DEM Hold rating for now.  However, if Domenici doesn't prove to be as worthy a candidate as his father, that rating could become more solidly blue.

House District 2:  This is the seat Steve Pearce left two years ago to run for Senate.  In his absence, the GOP fielded political lightweight Ed Tinsley while the Democrats picked Lee Country Commissioner Harry Teague.  Even though Bush won District 2 in 2004 by 16%, Tinsley could muster only 44% of the vote and lost to Teague by 12.  This year, Pearce is back to try to regain the seat.  The battle between Teague, who now enjoys the advantages which come with incumbency, and Pearce, who doesn't have to face a gale force blue wind in his face, is sure to be a close one right up to Election Day.  Early polls show Pearce with a slight lead in this Republican-leaning district (Cook PVI R+6).  Pundits also see a close race currently leaning toward Pearce.  Though the projection of this race may flip back and forth over the next 7 months, right now it stands as a Weak GOP Gain.

Get lots more information on the Land of Enchantment by visiting the New Mexico state page.

Next stop:  New York



Filed under:  New Mexico  NM House  NM Governor 

House District 3:  John Adler won this seat two years ago after entrenched Republican Jim Saxton decided not to seek a twelfth term.  Even though the political climate has done a 180 since his election, he will enjoy the power of incumbency in this very evenly split district (Cook PVI R+1).  And as a Harvard-trained attorney with two decades in politics under his belt, he has the chops to be very strong against whomever faces him in November.  That one is likely to be former NFL offensive lineman Jon Runyan, a political novice.  In an interesting irony, the 6' 7" 330 lb Runyan is set to play David to Adler's political Goliath.  The outcome of this race right now is hard to guess simply because little can be known about what kind of candidate the Republican behemoth will be.  If Runyan's candidacy proves fresh and appealing to voters seeking change, he could upend Adler.  On the other hand, unless his message really connects, this could be relatively easy win for the incumbent.  For now, pundits seem to say the jury is still out.  Taken together, they see Adler as vulnerable, but not terribly so.  This race starts out as a Mod DEM Hold.

The New Jersey state page has the lowdown.  Check it out.

Next stop:  New Mexico



Filed under:  New Jersey  NJ House 

I, too, claim the name of Christ and call myself a Christian, a fact that makes this post so relevant, so needed.  Let me say right here, right now, unequivocally and without reservation that whomever these plotting murderers serve, it is NOT the Christ of the Bible; it is NOT the Jesus who saved me from my sins.  I regret so much the terribly wrong picture of Christ these people paint.  The true picture is so vastly different.  I could write a whole treatise about this, but, for now, I choose to leave it at that.



Filed under:  World events  The Blogging Caesar 

Senate:  If 2010 were another blue year, Gregg's retirement would certainly make this seat a relatively easy pickup.  But 2010 will most likely be a lot more red than blue.  Still, the race remains a first-tier target for Democratic strategists.  And in Congressman Paul Hodes, they have a first-tier challenger who will make this race tight regardless of the direction of the political winds.  Facing him will be one of four folks vying for the GOP nomination.  The current front-runner is Kelly Ayotte, New Hampshire's Attorney General who brings a plethora of high-profile Republican endorsements into the primary fight.  Against her, though, are two self-funded candidates who bring a lot of dough into the race.  Neither of them, businessman Bill Binnie and 1996 gubernatorial nominee Ovide Lamontagne, can be overlooked.  While Ayotte is, I believe, the best candidate to take on Hodes in November, Binnie and Lamontagne represent real threats to her nomination.  For now, I'll stick with Ayotte to win the primary and go on to successfully defend this seat for the GOP in a Weak GOP Hold.

Governor:  Unlike most states, New Hampshire elects its governor every two years.  This year's victory for sitting NH Governor John Lynch seems a foregone conclusion at this point.  A recent Rasmussen poll has him 19 and 26 points ahead of his two possible challengers, Jack Kimball and Karen Testerman, respectively.  By contrast, GOPer Kelly Ayotte leads Democrat Paul Hodes by 10 in the same poll.  And an earlier poll by Research 2000 had Lynch beating Kimball by a huge 46-point margin.  Projection? Lynch in a walk, Solid DEM Hold.

House District 1:  Just as the blue wave of 2006 gave Democrats a clean sweep of New Hampshire's two-seat House delegation, the red wave coming in November threatens provide the same outcome for Republicans.  In District 1, Carol Shea Porter is facing a serious challenge from Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta, the presumed GOP nominee.  A poll released earlier this year by the University of New Hampshire gave Guinta a 10-point lead.  This early in the cycle, that's a very bad result for the incumbent.  And coupled with pundit ratings which pegs this race as a true toss-up, that's enough for me to start this race out as a Weak GOP Gain.

House District 2:  The open seat in District 2 is much the same story.  Pundit projections show a toss-up - with the exception of Larry Sabato who actually rates it a GOP-lean - and that same UNH poll gives presumptive GOP nominee and former Congressman Charlie Bass a solid lead over both Democrats chasing the Dem nod.  For now, a Weak GOP Gain projection at EP indeed forecasts another House clean sweep here in New Hampshire.

You'll find a bunch more stuff on the New Hampshire state page.

Next stop:  New Jersey



Filed under:  New Hampshire  NH Senate  NH House  NH Governor 

Senate:  Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is unpopular in his home state.  Oscar Goodman, mayor of Las Vegas, is popular.  Some Nevada Democrats were hoping for a Dodd-like switcharoo to help save the senate seat now occupied by Reid.  If you'll remember, Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd faced losing his seat to the GOP before backing out in favor a more electable Democrat.  His decision moved that race from a likely GOP takeover to a likely DEM hold.  Alas, for Democrats at least, Goodman decided to stay at the helm of Sin City.  Now Reid faces the daunting task of beating either one of two Republicans who each own substantial leads over him in the polls.  Either Sue Lowden, Nevada GOP Chairwoman, or Danny Tarkanian, son of former UNLV basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian, are poised to move Reid's seat over to the red column in November.  However, don't count Reid out just yet.  He is a crafty politician with an enormous war chest.  He will not go quietly into the night.  That said, the polls are overwhelming in the GOP's favor right now, so, right now, this race is projected as a Weak GOP Gain.

Governor:  The outcome of this race, much like the Connecticut senate race, depends on whether the incumbent is on the ballot.  Current Republican Governor Jim Gibbons, tarnished by scandal, is even less liked here than Harry Reid.  He is trailing his potential Democrat challenger Rory Reid (Harry's son and Clark County Commissioner).  That's bad news for the GOP - but there is good news.  He's also losing to primary challenger, Republican Brian Sandoval.  And, in more good news, polls indicate Sandoval would cruise to victory in the general election.  Though Sandoval's lead over Gibbons is not a solid as I would hope, I'm still betting on him winning the primary.  Nevertheless, the chance Gibbons will be on the ballot in November tempers the projected GOP win.  Instead of a solid hold - which it will be if and when Sandoval wins the primary - it is projected at the moment to be a Weak GOP Hold.

House District 3:  Democrat Dina Titus rode the blue wave of 2008 to victory over Republican incumbent Jon Porter.  However, Titus' reputation as a partisan puts her out of the mainstream of this politically divided area and makes her re-election attempt more challenging with a wave of a different hue coming at her.  The only poll I could find on the race, a Mason-Dixon poll conducted early last December, put her in a 40-40 tie against her likely GOP opponent, former State Senator Joseph Heck.  Look for this race to be high on the radar for both parties as the election nears.  This race may eventually move to red, but, for now, pundit ratings dictate a Weak DEM Hold.

For more information, please check out the Nevada state page.

Next stop:  New Hampshire



Filed under:  Nevada  NV Senate  NV House  NV Governor 

Why would the Democrats go to such extreme and deceptive measures to pass this landmark legislation which 59% disapprove of in a recent CNN poll?  Don't they understand that they are relegating themselves to minority status after this year's elections?  I think they understand that possibility, but they are banking on two forces in American politics to save them.

First is the power of time and the fleeting focus of the American electorate.  Second is the influence of the mainstream media and its constant drumbeat of Democratic-friendly spin.  Sure, for now, there are many who are boiling about this passage, and come November, they will still be.  But the media has 8 months to tout Obamacare and soften the acridity currently seething out there.  Those whose resolve to take their revenge in November will be, by and large, those who would have done so with or without Obamacare becoming law.

You can look no further than today's headline on Yahoo.com to see what we can expect.  It read, "What the health care bill means to you" and underneath the headline, "Some parts of the new plan, including a change on pre-existing conditions, will take effect immediately."  That's the strategy.  Watch between now and November for a long string of stories touting who this bill helps (who doesn't have a problem with being denied coverage on pre-existing conditions?) and very little about the cost and loss of freedom it will bring.

The video linked by the headline continues the same template.  If you watch it, you'll see Obama and Pelosi trumpeting the 'victory' for the American people it represents at the beginning and a positive CBO evaluation of its cost at the end - the CBO is "bi-partisan," of course.  Stuck in the middle is a short blurb by GOP minority leader John Boehner deriding the taxes it will bring.  While the Boehner clip will fire up the Rush/Beck crowd, it gets drowned out to the less conservatively resolved.

Then there will be the cruel, cold-hearted Republicans template.  Time and time again, in Democratic political ads and mainstream media news stories, the GOP's agenda of repealing Obamacare will be portrayed as just one more indication of how little Republicans care about the less fortunate among us.  Imagine this playing out on the evening news.  First, a story of single-mother Anna Lopez whose three children, one of whom is suffering from diabetes, now have full health care coverage as a result of Obamacare.  Picture her telling through tear-filled eyes in broken English how much she appreciates what Obamacare has done for her and her children.  After the reporter closes the story, the newscast transitions to a story of the Republican approach to the 2010 elections.  You can imagine the impression the average, less-engaged voter will gain from this sequence.

By Election Day, I fear much of the anti-Democratic steam will have been cooled by just this type of spin.  There is not much doubt that the GOP will gain substantial seats in both houses of Congress - that was to be the case with or without Obamacare.  However, due to the fact that its passage will avert a possible rebellion of the Democratic base and due to the inevitable pro-Obamacare media drumbeat sure to come over the next 8 month, it is entirely possible that the Democrats will end up in at least as good a shape as they would have if they hadn't passed it - and, perhaps, even a bit better.



Filed under:  Healthcare  2010 Elections 

The second political anomaly found in Nebraska is its legislature.  The state lawmaking body is both unicameral and nonpartisan.  No other state legislature is made up of just one chamber, and every other state's legislators are affiliated with political parties.  In Nebraska, you have "senators" but not "representatives," and you don't see the traditional (R) or (D) after their names.

Governor:  The governor of Nebraska, however, is not nonpartisan.  And looking at a list of governor's from this state since 1955, you see an amazing pattern.  Until current Governor Dave Heineman, a Republican, succeeded GOP Governor Mike Johanns in 2005, Democrats and Republicans - in varying lengths of service - had alternated residency in the Governor's Mansion for the last 55 years.  This year, Heineman is up for re-election.  In 2006, one year after he was appointed governor after Johanns accepted a position in the Bush cabinet, Heineman got over 74% of the vote in his landslide first election.  There's no reason to expect his vote total in 2010 will be much changed from 4 years ago.  This race is an easy one to call:  Solid GOP Hold.

House District 2:  This congressional district, as exhibited in Obama's 2008 victory, is Nebraska's least Republican.  But that doesn't mean it isn't Republican.   Incumbent Representative Lee Terry has served 6 terms here.  After 4 easy wins, Terry weathered the blue wave elections of 2006 and 2008 by less overwhelming margins.  I don't think he's very vulnerable this, likely red, year, but the pundits have deemed his re-election bid somewhat shakey.  So, this race starts off as a Mod GOP Hold.  I wouldn't be surprised to see this race removed from the tracking list by November.

Check out the Nebraska state page for the lowdown on all Nebraska's races and a lot more interesting Nebraska stuff.

Next stop:  Nevada



Filed under:  Nebraska  NE House  NE Governor 

Ok, I'll get back to politics now...



Filed under:  Montana  MT House 

Senate:  Not long after Republican incumbent Senator Kit Bond decided to forego a re-election bid, the partisan battle lines had already been drawn.  Very early on, two folks from established political families in Missouri jumped in.  On the Republican side, Roy Blunt, sitting congressman from Missouri's 7th district, declared his candidacy.  And Robin Carnahan, Missouri's Secretary of State, announced hers for the Democrats.  Blunt's son Matt served as Missouri's governor as did Carnahan's father, Mel.  Her mother also served as senator.  She was appointed to fill a seat won posthumously by her husband after he died tragically during his Senate campaign.  In addition, both candidates claim other close relatives among the ranks of lobbyists and lawyers.  This race is shaping up to one of the most competitive in the country and is sure to be as intense as they come.  Both sides will try to paint the other as the establishment candidate and thus part of the problem in Washington.  Whoever wins that spin battle will likely win the race.  Based on early polling, this race is razor-close.  And based on the low number of undecideds already, it's likely to stay that way from now till Election Day.  Election Projection's preliminary projection of Weak GOP Hold leans more on the national mood than on a clear-cut Blunt advantage.  As for Missouri's bell weather status, the outcome of this race will tell a lot about the outcome of the election in general.  A Carnahan victory should signal less-than-expected losses for the Democrats nationwide, while an easy Blunt win will portend a very nice night for Republicans.

House District 4:  Democrat Ike Skelton first won election to the House back in the 1970's.  Not once since has he gained less than 60% of the vote in his re-election races.  But, this is a different year in three ways.  First, his challengers have seldom been as well-funded as the two possible GOP nominees in the race.  Second, Democrats, with the possible exception of 1994, have not been the target of the type of bad voter vibes they face this year.  And third, Skelton's votes for Obama's stimulus bill and the Democrats "cap-and-trade" legislation put him at odds with this conservative district like never before.  All these factors put this re-election bid in play - but only moderately.  Skelton will be tough to unseat even in this political climate.  That's why this race starts off as a Mod DEM Hold.

Check out the Missouri state page throughout the year for election information and regular updates.

Next stop:  Montana



Filed under:  Missouri  MO Senate  MO House 

House District 1:  Democrat Travis Childers won a special election in April, 2008 to replace Republican Roger Wicker who had been appointed to the Senate seat of outgoing Senator Trent Lott.  His victory was a shock to the GOP and a tell-tale sign that the blue wave of 2006 was still packing a punch.  Later that year, he won a full term with an easy win in the November elections.  Interestingly, until Wicker moved to the Senate, this seat had been held by just two people since 1941.  Wicker won an open seat election in 1994.  That open seat was courtesy of Democrat Jamie Whitten's retirement and marked the first time in 54 years that Whitten's name was not on the ballot.  That's right; Mr. Whitten served a remarkable 27 terms.  He was the longest serving representative in U.S. history at the time.  Fast-forward to 2010, and you'll find the chances of sitting Representative Childers duplicating Whitten's feat pretty doubtful.  With a Republican wind blowing through this Republican-leaning district, Election Projection starts off this race as a Weak GOP Gain.

Be sure to check out the Mississippi state page for a lot more information on the Magnolia State.

Next stop:  Missouri



Filed under:  Mississippi  MS House 

Another exit just announced today will add yet another to the Republican count in the House.  Freshman Democratic Congressman Eric Massa will not defend his seat in New York's 29th district.  Massa won the seat two years ago in a blue wave election.  With the political wind in his face, he was headed for a difficult re-election bid this year.  Now that he's taking the power of incumbency away with him, Republicans should be able to recover this lost seat.

These two changes move the Republicans closer to a House majority.  Though still a good way off according to Election Projection, they now are projected to win 24 Democratic seats against just 2 losses.  That net 22-seat gain brings the projected tally to 235 Democrats and 200 Republicans.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  Indiana  IN House  New York  NY House 

No change in the gubernatorial preliminary projection resulted from adding in actual polling data.  Rick Perry is still projected to retain the seat in a Mod GOP Hold.  Tracking for the contested race in district 17 where Democrat Chet Edwards seeks re-election will commence after the runoff election in April determines the Republican nominee.



Filed under:  Primary results  Texas  TX House  TX Governor 

You can find results here beginning at 7pm CST tonight.  For another source, check out the Texas Secretary of State's election returns page.

Update:  I updated the first link above with a better website.  As for the results, Rick Perry has indeed crossed the 50% threshhold with 13% of the precincts reporting.  If he can maintain that level of support, he'll avoid a runoff.

Update2:  With 85% of precincts reporting, Perry is holding firm at 52%.  KBH sits at 30%, and Debra Medina has 18%.  It's likely now that there will be no runoff, and that's a good thing for the GOP here in Texas.

Update3:  Apparently, Kay Bailey Hutchison has conceded and will not force a runoff.  So even though Perry's vote total is down to 51%, he can breathe a little easier now.



Filed under:  Texas  TX Governor 

Governor:  Republican Tim Pawlenty, perhaps eyeing a 2012 run at the presidency, will call it quits when his second term as governor expires next January.  His first election in 2002 featured a close battle between him and DFLer Roger Moe.  His 44% of the vote bested Moe by 8 points but didn't remove speculation that Democrat Tim Penny's run as an independent - which garnered 16% - provided Pawlenty with the win.  Four years later, Pawlenty won re-election by a scant one percent over DFLer Mike Hatch.  His victory in 2006 was the only Senate or gubernatorial contest not correctly projected here at Election Projection during that cycle.  This year, with Pawlenty out of the hunt, no less than 28 candidates are presently running to take his place.  Among 12 DFLers, former Senator Mark Dayton has a solid edge for the nominee while State Representative Marty Seifert looks strongest among eight Republicans.  Third-party candidates probably won't have the impact this year that they've had in the past.  As for a projection, Mark Dayton's dismal numbers as a senator make this contest seem a good prospect for the GOP.  However, something tells me after 20 years, this may be the time for a DFLer to prevail.  I'll call it a Weak DEM Gain for now.

House District 6:  Republican Michelle Bachman won election to this seat for the first time in 2006 and re-election in 2008, showing the ability to win hotly-contested races in blue wave elections.  She is an outspoken conservative who has a major target on her back.  Her ouster is about the most coveted one in the nation to Democratic activists.  That said, if they can't beat her in a blue year, I don't see it happening in this upcoming red one.  She starts out as a Mod GOP Hold, but I wouldn't be surprised to see that projected margin grow.

The Minnesota state page has much more information.  Check it out!

Next stop:  Mississippi



Filed under:  Minnesota  MN House  MN Governor