Tomorrow in the heartland, Republicans will decide how Kansas' forty delegates will vote at this year's Republican National Convention in Tampa starting August 27. Who will win
here? I have scoured the web for polls testing that question and have come up with exactly zero surveys. Without polling information at our disposal, predicting winners is
much more problematic. But that doesn't stop The Blogging Caesar!
Looking back at 2008 when Mike Huckabee won sixty percent of the vote in Kansas, it might be easy to say Rick Santorum has the advantage. However, the Kansas caucus
was held early in the cycle last time around (Feb 8), when Huckabee was still enjoying front runner status. Even so, Kansas large socially conservative bloc of Republicans should
bolster Santorum's vote totals.
Will it be enough for him to win here as he has done in neighboring states such as Oklahoma, Colorado and Missouri? I think it will - but just by a whisker. In fact, I
believe the winner here tomorrow will not get to 40% - maybe not even 35%. So, with that, here are my Kansas election predictions - which should be taken with a grain of salt given
the complete absence of polls.
- Rick Santorum - 33%
- Mitt Romney - 31%
- Newt Gingrich - 24%
- Ron Paul - 11%
Caucuses begin at the precinct level at 11am EST.
Filed under:
2012 Presidential Election
2012 GOP Primaries
Kansas 2012
KS President 2012
posted by Scott Elliott at 5:18pm 03/09/12::
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