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  Politics and Elections
Monday, March 18, 2013

Rothenberg: House likely to stay in Republican hands in 2014
Stuart Rothenberg, a well-respected expert on congressional elections and a long-time member of my "pundit panel" for projecting House races here at Election Projection, has published a quick overview of the 2014 landscape in the House with attention to Democrats' opportunities for retaking the House.  The blue team currently needs to net a gain of 17 districts to reach a 218-seat majority.  By his estimation, there are barely that many vulnerable Republicans for Democrats to target.
That makes 17 districts where Democrats start with realistic opportunities to make gains.  The list could grow, of course, with GOP retirements, unusually strong Democratic recruits or redrawn districts in Florida and Texas.  But 17 districts are not nearly enough opportunities to give Democrats a decent chance of taking back the House.
If you factor in Democratic vulnerabilities, it's not hard to see Rothenberg's point.
And while Democrats have opportunities, they also have seats that will need defending.  At least 11 Democratic incumbents start off at risk.
So, a year-and-a-half away from the next Election Day, Republicans, despite devastating electoral setbacks last year and recent talk of their political demise, are sitting in an enviable position when it comes to controlling the lower chamber come January, 2015.



Filed under: 2014 House Elections 



posted by Scott Elliott at 11:04pm 03/18/13::
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