Here is the list of race rating changes for this week's Election Projection Update:

Changes in Obama's favor

• Massachusetts:  Strong Obama -> Solid Obama
• Minnesota:  Mod Obama -> Strong Obama
• New Hampshire:  Weak McCain -> Mod Obama
• Wisconsin:  Weak McCain -> Weak Obama

Changes in McCain's favor

• Arizona:  Mod McCain -> Strong McCain
• Maine:  Solid Obama -> Strong Obama
• New Jersey:  Solid Obama -> Strong Obama

These changes reflect polling data gathered through today.  Official projections for Senate, House, and Governors races have not been tabulated.  Also, I have not posted the formulae for this cycle yet.  All of this is coming together and will be posted shortly, on or before Election Projection's website relaunch scheduled for June 1.

Here is the list of race rating changes for this Election Projection Update:

Changes in Obama's favor

• Hawaii:  Strong Obama -> Solid Obama
• New Mexico:  Weak McCain -> Mod Obama
• Oregon:  Mod Obama -> Strong Obama
• Pennsylvania:  Weak Obama -> Mod Obama
• Virginia:  Mod McCain -> Weak McCain

Changes in McCain's favor

• Alaska:  Mod McCain -> Strong McCain
• Arkansas:  Weak McCain -> Solid McCain
• Iowa:  Mod Obama -> Weak Obama
• Michigan:  Mod Obama -> Weak Obama

These changes reflect polling data gathered through today.  Official projections for Senate, House, and Governors races have not been tabulated.  Also, I have not posted the formulae for this cycle yet.  All of this is coming together and will be posted shortly, on or before Election Projection's website relaunch scheduled for June 1.

Notes on the relaunch:  Mrs. Blogging Caesar and I enjoyed a wonderful two hours chatting with former Blackhawk helicopter pilot Melanie Taylor on Saturday.  What an amazing lady and what an amazing story!  You won't want to miss her interview when I post it as part of the relaunch.  As for the Senate, House and gubernatorial race updates, I've decided that, due to the fact that so few primaries have been completed at this point, I will wait until the relaunch to post updates on those races.

Update:  Another site for the results.

Update2:  Childers is the projected winner.  At 10:30pm, with around 80% of the votes counted, he leads 51% to 49%.  This victory is a considerable upset given the district's heavily Republican makeup.  It gives the Democrats a 236-199 majority in the House.

Update3:  The final 20% of the vote must have been overwhelmingly for Childers because the final margin ballooned to nearly 8 percent.  Stuart Rothenberg has an insightful look at why the GOP couldn't hold this strong Republican seat.

Colorado, Iowa and Ohio are projected to go for Obama in this first iteration, giving him enough additional electoral votes to offset George W. Bush's 2004 advantage and McCain's projected victory in New Hampshire.  The projected popular vote favors Obama by a 51.52% to 47.48% margin.  Many changes to my preliminary guesses resulted once real numbers were included for calculation.  Four states actually flipped colors.  Of them, one - Ohio - switched to Obama and three - Nevada, New Mexico, and Wisconsin - switched to McCain.  The net result is no change to the total preliminary EV count.  Ohio's 20 EVs exactly match the combined 20 EVs of the three states moving from blue to red.

Here is the full list of race rating changes in this first projection:

Changes in Obama's favor

• Alaska:  Solid McCain -> Mod McCain
• Hawaii:  Mod Obama -> Strong Obama
• Illinois:  Strong Obama -> Solid Obama
• Iowa:  Weak Obama -> Mod Obama
• Louisiana:  Strong McCain -> Mod McCain
• Maine:  Strong Obama -> Solid Obama
• Maryland:  Strong Obama -> Solid Obama
• Michigan:  Weak Obama -> Mod Obama
• Minnesota:  Weak Obama -> Mod Obama
• Mississippi:  Solid McCain -> Strong McCain
• New Jersey:  Mod Obama -> Solid Obama
• North Carolina:  Strong McCain -> Mod McCain
• Ohio:  Weak McCain -> Weak Obama
• Oregon:  Weak Obama -> Mod Obama
• Tennessee:  Strong McCain -> Mod McCain
• Washington:  Mod Obama -> Strong Obama

Changes in McCain's favor

• Massachusetts:  Solid Obama -> Strong Obama
• Nevada:  Weak Obama -> Weak McCain
• New Mexico:  Weak Obama -> Weak McCain
• Virginia:  Weak McCain -> Mod McCain
• Wisconsin:  Weak Obama -> Weak McCain

These changes reflect polling data gathered by yesterday afternoon.  Official projections for Senate, House, and Governors races have not been tabulated.  Also, I have not posted the formulae for this cycle yet.  All of this is coming together and will be posted shortly, on or before Election Projection's website relaunch scheduled for June 1.

Freudenthal is term-limited in 2010, but Trauner is back this year to make another run at the House seat now open as a result of Cubin's retirement.  Without the controversial Cubin in the picture, this seat should fall easily back into the GOP's hands.  However, Trauner has proven the ability to run effectively in hostile territory.  The Blogging Caesar rates the race a Weak GOP Hold for now.

In the Senate, the passing of Senator Craig Thomas last summer has produced the unique situation of dual senate races in Wyoming this year.  Both third-term Senator Mike Enzi and newly-appointed Senator John Barrasso find their seats up for election.  Not a problem, says The Blogging Caesar.  After all, Wyoming is still deeply red.  Give both gentlemen Solid GOP Holds.

The rest of the story can be found on the Wyoming state page.

And that concludes your fifty-state tour.  All the preliminary evaluations are in.  The results are very positive for my Democratic friends.  If my current guesses prove true, Democrats will gain one governorship, three Senate seats, four House seats, and, most importantly, the White House.  Let me hasten to add here that these prognostications are just preliminary and rely on minimal hard data.  Things will probably change often (in one direction or the other) once I've instituted the formulas and begun calculating the numbers.  Stay tuned!

Update:  I mistakenly said initially that Freudenthal "captured" the statehouse in 2006 and is not up for re-election until 2010.  In fact, he win in 2006 marked the beginning of his second term in office.  As a result he is term-limited and will not be able to seek a third term in 2010.  The post now contains the corrected information.

The only other race of note here is Democrat Steve Kagen's seat in district 8.  Kagen narrowly bested GOPer John Gard in 2006, and Mr. Gard is back for a rematch.  I'm reasonably convinced Kagen will withstand Gard's attempt to unseat him, so this race also starts off in the Democrat's favor - Weak DEM Hold.

The Wisconsin state page has more for your perusing enjoyment.

Even so, Democrats still hold a considerable amount of sway in this largely blue-collar state.  Both long-time Democratic Senator Jay Rockefeller, IV and first-term Democratic Governor Joe Manchin, II will cruise to landslide victories.

The West Virginia House delegation of one Republican and two Democrats will see all three incumbents gain another term in November, barring a real surprise upset of Republican Shelley Capito in district 2.  She the only congressperson the least bit vulnerable.

You can find lots more information on the West Virginia state page.

Bad night for The Blogging Caesar last night:  It was a great night for Barack Obama who effectively shut the door on any realistic chance of Hillary Clinton taking the nomination.  In the process, however, his performance in both primaries (Indiana and North Carolina) landed the actual outcomes quite a ways from my predictions.  To top it off, my man Fred Smith lost his bid for the GOP gubernatorial nomination in North Carolina.  Oh well, as I wrote a reader who emailed in, now it's time to turn toward the general election in November - "GO PAT!!" (McCrory).

Emails from readers:  I recently perused my large cache of emails and found that many of you have sent in emails that have gone unanswered.  I apologize for failing to respond.  Over the next several weeks, I'm going to try to catch up.  Don't be surprised if you get a response soon to an email you sent me months ago - and then again, don't be surprised if you don't, heh heh.

Numbers tracking:  With the conclusion of the fifty-state tour just a hair's breadth away, I will soon begin in earnest your Election Projection - 2008 Edition, complete with revised formulas (where needed), daily poll reports, and race tracking.  Thanks for your patience as I've trudged my way through all the preliminary evaluations.  They will be complete by the weekend, and then the real election season commences!

Website redesign:  This is something I'm very excited about.  I've begun a redesign of the website that should be ready to launch very soon.  It will combine the good things about Election Projection with some additional cool features.  Stay tuned...

Upcoming interview:  As part of the launch of the new website design, I will be posting an interview with Melanie Taylor.  Ms. Taylor is a helicopter pilot who flew Blackhawks during multiple tours of duty in Afghanistan and Iraq.  In fact, she was in Iraq when my parents went home to be with the Lord.  She has a fascinating story you won't want to miss!

I am looking forward with great anticipation to what is sure to be a thrilling ride to Election Day, November 4th.  I hope you'll share it with me here at Election Projection - 2008 Edition.

Indiana Democratic Presidential Primary

North Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary

Other Indiana Primary Races

Other North Carolina Primary Races

We here in North Carolina have a chance to elect a tried and true conservative as our governor.  Polls are showing rival Republican Pat McCrory's double-digit lead dwindling to a dead heat.  A long-shot just a couple weeks ago, Fred Smith now has a real shot at the nomination.  With your help, he can win the primary and carry his legitimate conservative message on to the general election.  Clear vision, straight talk.  Proven conservative leadership.  That's what this man offers the people of North Carolina.  So, please, get out there tomorrow and cast your vote for Fred Smith.