In a wreck of this magnitude, what an awesome blessing that the only thing we are mourning is the loss of a minivan.  God is SO good - thank you, Lord, for keeping us from further harm.



Filed under:  The Blogging Caesar 

I'm very excited about the opportunity I had to interview Republican Renee Ellmers. She is the GOP nominee challenging incumbent Democrat Bob Etheridge in North Carolina's 2nd District. While some would call her a longshot to win here, this is exactly the kind of race that can be won if the right kind of Republican wave makes political landfall on November 2.

EP:  Earlier this year, Club for Growth released their scorecard for 2009 which measures fiscal responsibility among lawmakers on Capitol Hill.  Your opponent, Bob Etheridge achieved a 6% score.  If elected, how important would it be for you to rate higher on that scale and how would your fiscal policy decisions differ from Mr. Etheridge?

Ms. Ellmers:  Well, if I don’t score higher than 6%, I’ll give up and come home.  My philosophy is conservative and "Fiscal Conservatism" is more than just a label to me.  Congressman Etheridge refers to himself as a "Fiscally Conservative Democrat," but I’ve yet to see that reflected in his voting record.  My goal will be to decrease spending, lower taxes (to stimulate job growth in the short-term), and then work toward comprehensive tax reform such as the Fair Tax.  These policies – plus decreasing regulations on small businesses – will create jobs.

EP:  You are a nurse by vocation and your husband is a doctor.  Talk for a moment about how you believe the health care bill passed by Congress will affect American families in general and health care providers, like you and your husband, specifically.

Ms. Ellmers:  Let me start out by saying that Nancy Pelosi and company forcing the healthcare bill through Congress may be the most detrimental piece of legislation to affect our country ever.  If elected I am going to work tirelessly to defund, dismantle and eventually repeal the bill.

American families and businesses will be affected by Obama-care starting January 1, 2011, when Obama-care tax increases start.  All citizens will be affected with an increase to the national debt.

Also, I am sad to say that the passage of the healthcare bill has already had a negative effect on physician practices.  In our area of North Carolina we have seen one outstanding specialist retire early; a bright, young primary care physician relocate; multiple practices have experienced drops in volume and revenue; and a few have sent out notifications to patients that they will no longer be taking Medicare.

The long and the short of it is if these trends continue there will be irreparable harm to the quality of healthcare in America.

EP:  That's why I believe we need folks like you in Washington - and the sooner the better!  Let's move to another hot button issue.  The immigration law passed recently in Arizona has caused quite an uproar across the nation.  It has been interesting to me to hear the mischaracterizations of the law among Democrats who, in many cases, haven't even read it.  What do you think this says about the attitude of Democratic leadership toward the issue of illegal immigration?

Ms. Ellmers:  I think the Democrats best illustrated their attitudes about illegal immigration when they all stood up in Congress to applaud Mexican President Calderon when he stated that he was against the Arizona immigration bill.  Who's country do they represent?

I support Arizona Governor Jan Brewer.  I think she has shown rare courage.  And the kind of leadership we have not seen in a long time.  The federal government has not enforced the immigration laws – literally leaving Arizona no choice but to pass and enforce their own, which states have the right to do under the 10th Amendment.  But I think the Obama administration will continue to perpetuate distortions in the hope that they can intimidate Arizona into backing off.

EP:  Judging from the things I've heard from Governor Brewer, I don't see that happening.  Now, few would argue that illegal immigration is a national security concern.  Along those same lines, would you discuss your impressions of President Obama's foreign policy as it relates to radical Islamic terrorism?  How would you advise the Obama administration to approach the issue of keeping Americans safe against this ongoing threat?

Ms. Ellmers:  The first step is simple:  President Obama has to recognize – and tell the American people – he understands radical Islamic terrorism does exist.  He also has to understand that our country is great because of our American exceptionalism – and not arrogance.  His repeated apologetic remarks regarding America to other nations, both ally and enemy, must end and be replaced with a message of strength.  I would also advise President Obama to step-up support for our military and discuss military strategies focused on success rather than exit dates.

EP:  Sounds like the right strategy to me!  Ok, let's talk a little about the upcoming elections.  Tuesday night, we watched Rand Paul, an open and enthusiastic voice of the Tea Party movement, win by a huge margin over an establishment Republican in the Senate primary in Kentucky.  How do you view the Tea Party movement and what do you expect its impact in November will be?

Ms. Ellmers:  I am a big fan of the Tea Party movement.  In fact, it was the Tea Party and Healthcare rallies that got me motivated to start speaking out.  Which led to my running for Congress.  I attended Tea Parties here in the Raleigh area, and my husband and I got involved with Americans for Prosperity's "Hands Off My Heathcare" Tour.

I think the Tea Party will have a significant effect on the November elections.  If it doesn’t we’re in trouble.

EP:  During the 1994 Republican surge that won over fifty seats in the House, Fred Heineman won against Democrat David Price over in the 4th district in an upset no one saw coming.  Right now, your race with Etheridge is not on the national radar.  Do you see similarities between this year's political climate and 1994?

Ms. Ellmers:  I do.  The 1994 election was voters saying no to Clinton’s march to the left after being elected in 1992.  Obama has gone much further left than even Clinton.  A lot of my district is rural, and small town voters – in both parties – are upset about the direction of the country.  My race is not on the national radar because we just finished the Primary and because it’s standard political wisdom incumbents like Congressman Etheridge are tough to unseat.  But 1994 showed that can be wrong and this election in November could be 1994 on Steroids!  The American people have shown over the last year that they have had ENOUGH politics as usual and want to STOP the direction our great country is headed in under Obama and Pelosi.

EP:  1994 on steroids - I like that.  Ok, in conclusion, let me open the floor for you to take a moment to share a bit of what you want voters of the 2nd District to know about you and why you are the right person to represent them in Congress next year.

Ms. Ellmers:  I am a nurse, wife and a mom. I believe that we are "...One Nation Under God..." and that our Constitution was divinely inspired and is as relevant today as it was when it was written by our Founding Fathers.

Like every person in the 2nd District who has watched our president "fundamentally transform" our great country, I am concerned for our children’s – my son’s – future.  I am not a politician, have never wanted to be and hope I never will be.  But I am deeply concerned, and I will not stand by and watch my son's future sacrificed at the altar of "social justice" through a series of manipulations masked as "reforms" for the end purpose of mass redistribution of wealth.

My personal beliefs are simple:  Less government; lower taxes; strong national defense.  I am a fiscal and social conservative.  I believe that prosperity and success come from each of us when we work hard to achieve, not from a government handout.

In Washington, my opponent Congressman Bob Etheridge votes with Nancy Pelosi 97% of the time and has shown that he will continue to do so despite what the citizens of District 2 think.  He voted for the Healthcare Bill, Cap and Trade, Death Tax, Stimulus, TARP and is a proponent of Card Check.  I have spoken to thousands of voters who have told me "Bob Etheridge has sold us out."  And I agree.  I wouldn’t be a candidate for Congress if I didn’t.

EP:  Amen to that!  Ms. Ellmers, thank you so much for taking the time for this interview.  I for one - and by no means the only one - am rooting for you to represent North Carolinians in the 2nd district in Congress come next January.  Best to you and your family.

Ms. Ellmers:  Thank you, Scott, for your thoughtful questions and your support.  I am grateful for the opportunity to share my thoughts and vision for our great country and look forward to the months ahead.

Please click here for a video message from Ms. Ellmers.  And then visit her website to offer your support.



Filed under:  House  North Carolina  NC House  EP Interviews 

Election Projection currently projects 8 Democratic Senate seats to go red this year, countered by Ohio which is projected to go the other way.  That's a net seven seat gain which adds up to just three short of 51 total and the majority.  With these new developments, if the GOP can win the eight seats plus just two of four between Ohio, California, Washington and Connecticut, the majority in the Senate in 2011 will belong to them.  That's great news, but Blumenthal and Murray - as well as Boxer in CA and Fisher in OH - still hold the advantage in their respective races.  Still, the more seats in play, the better the chances for the red team.



Filed under:  Senate  Washington  WA Senate 

As I write this, voters in Hawaii's 1st District are deciding who will represent them for the remainder of this term.  Neil Abercrombie left a vacant House seat behind when he retired earlier this year to focus on a run at the Hawaii statehouse.  Polls indicate Republican Charles Djou will win a plurality of the vote while Democrats Ed Case and Colleen Hanabusa split the district's majority Democratic voting bloc.

Due to this district's heavy Democratic lean, if Djou wins, he will most likely lose in November.  And, if Democratic voters decide at the last moment to back Case instead of splitting their votes with Hanabusa, Djou could lose.  The winner aside, what I see as most important here is the percentage of the vote Djou receives.  Let me illustrate what I mean.  A Djou win where the vote breaks down 32/31/31 might not be as good a sign for Republicans heading toward November as a Djou loss where he gets a larger cut - say, for example, Case 42, Djou 40, Hanabusa, 14.  Some would argue that a win is a win and a loss is always worse. To a point I agree. But Djou garnering 40 percent of the vote rather than 32 would demonstrate much more positive energy for the upcoming red wave.

Last Tuesday we were treated to a host of primary elections - and one special election - with intriguing storylines.  In Kentucky, the Tea Party Movement showed its muscle in no uncertain terms as Tea Party favorite Rand Paul blasted Secretary of State Trey Greyson by 25 points to win the Republican nomination.  On the Democratic side, Attorney General Jack Conway, who polled 15 to 20 points behind Lt. Governor Daniel Mongiardo back in March, completed a stunning comeback to claim the Democratic nod by a single percent.  The matchup between Conway and Paul is sure to be a closely watched race.  However, with the first poll out after the primaries giving Paul an overwhelming 59% to 34% lead, only time will tell if it is a close race.

In Pennsylvania, Arlen Specter's 30-year stint in the Senate came to an abrupt end.  Joe Sestak saw to that, gaining latebreaking support by capitalizing on Specter's verbal gaffes (seems he still can't distinguish between Republicans and Democrats) and George W. Bush's support for his re-election 6 years ago.  Now Sestak, who I believe is the stronger Democratic candidate, moves on to face Republican nominee, Pat Toomey.  This is anybody's race and could move from red to blue and back several times between now and November.

Down in Razorback country, Arkansas voters refused to give embattled Democratic incumbent Blanche Lincoln a clear vote of confidence in her 2nd re-election attempt.  Though she did get the most votes, she failed to eclipse the 50% mark.  As a result, she must face Lt. Governor Bill Halter in a June 8th runoff.  On the Republican side, Congressman John Boozman did succeed in claiming a 50+% slice of the vote.  The fact that he can sit by and watch Lincoln and Halter prolong their intra-party battle only enhances his already rosy prospects of earning a GOP takeover here.

Finally, there was the special election to fill the late John Murtha's seat in Pennsylvania's 12th District. Republicans had high hopes of taking one from the Democrats here, but too many Democratic voters and not enough independents proved too much.  Former Murtha staffer Mark Critz ran significantly to the right of his predecessor and boss to achieve an 8-point victory.  In my mind, the margin of the victory was of more significance than the victor.

Republican Tim Burns faced long odds of winning this one - regardless of what some pundits asserted.  The Sestak/Specter matchup provided all the motivation hordes of Democratic primary voters needed to swamp the GOP faithful in this 2 to 1 Democratic district.  And with independents who are accustomed to sitting out partisan primary elections making up just 4% of the vote, Burns did not stand a chance.  That said, the convincing margin Critz managed should wake up giddy Republicans everywhere to the idea that a sizable red wave in November is by no means a foregone conclusion.



Filed under:  2010 Elections 

On a night when expectations of GOP fans were running high, both these results were good for Democrats.  Sestak's win gives them a stronger candidate in the general election against Republican nominee Pat Toomey.  And, aside from the obvious benefit of a seat held, Critz's victory will fuel optimism among Democratic observers that the alleged red wave coming in November may not be as strong as advertised.

I believe that thinking is premature and ignores the impact the blockbuster battle that was Sestak vs. Specter had on Democratic turnout.  While Specter's base in Philadelphia and suburbs were nominal at best, Sestak was very strong in western PA, wracking up 15 to 20 point victories in some counties - including several of the 8 counties which hold at least of sliver of the gerrymandered 12th.  I interpret these numbers as an indication of an anti-incumbent mood that drove many Democrats to the polls and muted the anti-Democrat mood motivating Burns supporters.  Looking forward, this seat is still very vulnerable.  As I posited in my primary preview on Monday, this seat is more likely to go to the GOP in November when Seatak will be battling Toomey instead of Specter and independents will makeup a larger slice of the vote.

On to the winners...

With 12 total races on the tracking lists here at Election Projection, Pennsylvania state page will be one stop you'll want to make often.



Filed under:  Pennsylvania  PA Senate  PA House  PA Governor 

Here are the primary winners.

Highlights:  Blanche Lincoln could not manage 50% of the vote last night.  As a result, she will face Lt. Governor Bill Halter in a pivotal battle June 8.  On the Republican side, John Boozman avoided the time and expense of a primary runoff by capturing just over 50% of the GOP vote yesterday.

Also capturing the attention of political observers are Kentucky's Senate primaries.  Both parties are holding intriguing matches to decide who will battle for outgoing Republican Senator Jim Bunning's seat.  Democrats will choose between Lt. Governor Daniel Mongiardo and Attorney General Jack Conway.  A few weeks ago, Mongiardo appeared to be cruising to the nomination, leading by 15 points or more in the polls.  That lead has shrunk to almost nothing in recent days, however, and Election Day will dawn with Conway having a legitimate shot at a stunning come-from-behind victory.

On the Republican ballot, the son of Texas congressman and former GOP presidential candidate Ron Paul has moved well ahead of Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson.  Rand Paul now seems set to earn the nomination tomorrow.  Though both Grayson and Paul currently lead either Democrat in the polls, Grayson's margins are more substantial, a fact that re-enforces doubts about Paul in some Republican circles.  Time will tell how he connects with a general election electorate once the primaries have past.

Rounding out tomorrow's primary schedule is Oregon.  The Democratic gubernatorial race features two prominent Oregon politicians in Secretary of State Bill Bradbury and former Governor John Kitzhaber.  The winner of that battle will enter the general election campaign as a decided favorite to succeed term-limited Democratic Governor Ted Kulongowski.

Sometime tomorrow I post links to primary results so you can watch the returns come in.  For now, let me venture a few predictions.  In Pennsylvania, I predict Arlen Specter's party-switching gambit will end in defeat and Joe Sestak will advance to face Pat Toomey in November.  In PA-12, I have to give the slightest of edges to Democrat Mark Critz (Election Projection's margin of victory:  0.5%).  Turnout at the top of the ballot will propel Critz to a narrow win over Republican Tim Burns.  In Arkansas, Blanche Lincoln will survive by a margin you can fit on one hand.  Finally, it'll be Rand Paul vs. Dan Mongiardo in Kentucky as Conway's frantic comeback bid falls just short.

I have to add that I'm least confident about the PA-12 prediction.  Given the difficulty of polling House races in general and measuring turnout in this district specifically, projecting a winner can be little more than guesswork.  If Burns does pull it out, I think the ramifications for November will be great.  A Burns victory despite heavy get-out-the-vote motivation provided by the Specter/Sestak matchup will indicate just how much the enthusiasm gap truly favors the GOP.

Update:  You can follow primary election returns here.  Polls close in Kentucky at 6pm, in Pennsylvania at 8pm, in Arkansas at 8:30pm and in Oregon at 10pm.  (All times EDT)



Filed under:  Arkansas  Kentucky  Oregon  Pennsylvania  PA Senate  PA House  KY Senate 

Ironically, there a good chance neither will remain that way after November.  Unique circumstances are at play in both situations which will make it difficult for the winner this month to be the winner again later this year.  In Hawaii, Republican Charles Djou is way out in front despite the fact that this area is strongly Democratic.  His lead can be attributed to the presence of two well-known Democrats in the race.  In the "winner-take-all" format governing this election, Djou is polling around 40% while Democrats Ed Case and Colleen Hanabusa are dividing up most of the rest of the vote.

Up in the Keystone State, a different dynamic is at work benefiting former Murtha staffer, Mark Critz.  While the tide in Pennsylvania is moving toward the GOP, Democratic turnout here will be fueled by a classic top-of-the-ballot all-out primary war.  Incumbent Senator Arlen Specter is in danger of losing the nomination to Congressman Joe Sestak, and interest in that race overshadows any on the Republican slate.  So, despite a strong GOP wind in general, the race for Murtha's seat may be decided by a gale-force intra-party storm raging above it on the ballot.  Polls have moved away from Republican Tim Burns of late and now favor Critz to win.

Victories by Critz and Djou may be short-lived, however.  Once November arrives, the unique aspects of May's contests will no longer be present.  In their stead, we'll see more expected tendencies exert their influence.  Specifically, in Hawaii, Djou will face just one Democrat on November 2nd - and that presents him with heaps of trouble.  As next Saturday will confirm, Djou can do well against a split Democratic vote, but he'll be unlikely to survive against the sole Democratic opponent he will face in November.  Likewise, in Pennsylvania, Critz will be seeking re-election in the midst of a red wave election in a district Charlie Cook gives a slight Republican lean (PVI R+1).  If Critz does win on Tuesday, his seat will remain on the hotly-contested list and should immediately be considered a more likely Republican gain than it currently is.



Filed under:  House  Hawaii  HI House  Pennsylvania  PA House 

Here are the winners in the Mountain State yesterday.

You can follow the results by watching the returns come in over at Politico.com.



Filed under:  Nebraska  West Virginia  WV House 

There are two interesting storylines to be gleaned from today's polls.  First, in Hawaii, Republican Charles Djou has moved out to a double-digit lead over his two Democratic incumbents.  More than that, however, are these two tidbits.  From Hotline On Call:

And from the Honolulu Civil Beat:

Second, in another possible indication of the voter enthusiasm gap we're looking at in November, The Washington Post released a poll of the Maryland gubernatorial contest between incumbent Governor Martin O'Malley, a Democrat, and former Governor Bob Ehrlich, a Republican.  When registered voters are polled, O'Malley stakes a 8 point lead.  However, a test of likely voters ends in a 47-47 tie.  That's quite a difference, one could bode very well for GOP prospects across the country six months from now.



Filed under:  House  Governors  HI House  MD Governor 

That's good news for the GOP and one less seat they'll have to worry about in November as they try to gain control of the House once again, right?  Not exactly.  This district is still strongly Democratic (Cook PVI D+11), and election rules revert to normal in November.  After a September primary, Djou would have to battle just one Democrat on the ballot, not two, in the general.  That's a formula for a very short term in office.  Sure, he would have the power incumbency, sort of, but I don't think this district will pick him again six months from now.  Democrats are sure to split their vote this month, but they won't have to in November.  Perhaps that is why Hanabusa won't go away and National Dems seem reluctant to come out and play here.

Still, holding the seat in Obama's district - even for half a year - would be sweet.



Filed under:  House  HI House 

Check back here later for good links to all the primary results to check as the returns come in this evening.

Update:  As promised, here are a couple of websites you can visit to track the returns this evening: Ohio and Indiana, North Carolina

Polls close at 7:30 EDT in North Carolina and Ohio.  The last polls close at 7:00 EDT in Indiana.



Filed under:  Indiana  North Carolina  Ohio  Utah 

Be sure to come back every day, Monday-Saturday, for daily poll reports and to see how new polling data effects the projections.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  Website administration  Senate  Illinois  IL Senate 

Governor:  Dave Freudenthal holds the honor of presiding over the most Republican state with a Democratic governor.  He won't have that honor come January as he is term-limited in 2010.  For a while, though, Freudenthal considered challenging Wyoming's term-limits law in court.  In a unique situation, Wyoming's law was considered vulnerable to a challenge after the state Supreme Court struck down a similar law limiting the terms of state legislators.  In march, however, the governor decided against a lawsuit.  His decision cemented this race in the takeover category since no Democrat in the state can come close to the cross-party appeal offered by this centrist, well-liked chief executive.  Observers noted that no Democrat would signal a run for the nomination in this race until Freudenthal stepped aside.  But in the two months after his exit, only one Democrat has jumped in, newcomer Rex Wilde.  The pickings are not so slim on the GOP side.  Seeing an easy general election win, several Republicans are vying for the nomination.  No primary polls are available, but that doesn't effect the rating of this race here at Election Projection.  No matter who secures the nomination, this one will be a clear Republican victory.  I'm starting it off as a Strong GOP Gain, but I feel certain it will end up in the solid category before the votes are counted.

The Wyoming state page has more good information.



Filed under:  Wyoming  WY Governor 

Senate:  Democrat Russ Feingold dodged the only major bullet on his way to re-election in 2010 when former Governor Tommy Thompson declined to run against him.  Speculation ran high up to his announcement that he would launch a challenge against the entrenched incumbent.  With his decision, though, the GOP lost its only real contender for this race.  Sure, several other Republicans are in the running, but Feingold will be a very difficult root to pull.  Even Thompson would have been no better than even money against him.  Take your pick between Republicans Dick Leinenkugel, Terrence Wall and Dave Westlake.  Feingold will easily triumph over them all.  In what could have been a toss-up, the sitting senator will now enjoy a Solid DEM Hold.

Governor:  When Tommy Thompson left the statehouse to take a spot in Bush's cabinet, Lt. Gov. Scott McCallum became governor.  He tried to earn the statehouse in his own right in 2002 but was defeated by Democrat Jim Doyle.  Four years later, Doyle won a second term over Congressman Mark Green.  This year, Doyle has decided against seeking a third term.  In his absence, two front runners have emerged from crowded fields on both sides.  For the GOP, Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker appears to be pulling away from former Congressman Mark Neumann, and Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett has become the presumed Democratic nominee.  Polls show this race moving the way of the Republican early on, so I'll give Walker a Weak GOP Gain for now.  However, this race could be an up and down affair in this closely divided state.

House District 7:  Two House races in Wisconsin are moderately competitive this cycle.  One, the 8th, is a battleground district that feels right at home on competitive House race lists.  The other, District 7, is in unfamiliar territory.  Incumbent Democrat David Obey has won 21 elections to the House, rarely enduring anything but landslides.  This year might be different.  As a big-spender on Capitol Hill, Obey has caught the ire of one Sarah Palin and the Tea Party movement.  Considering the national mood, Obey can't be considered safe.  On the other hand, apparent GOP nominee Sean Duffy has very little in the way of traditional political credentials.  What he does have is an unusual - and sometimes unflattering - "public record" as a part of the cast of MTV's Real World reality show back in 1997.  Adding to his potentially damaging personal story is his wife and fellow Real World cast member, Rachel Campos-Duffy, whose been described as an ultra-conservative loose cannon.  Nevertheless, the current political climate does present Obey with a challenging environment in which to seek re-election.  But for now this race barely registers.  Give it a Mod DEM Hold.  Like Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin in South Dakota and Gerry Connolly in Virginia, if Obey does lose, the GOP will be cruising to a 50-plus seat gain in the House.

House District 8:  After Republican Mark Green stepped aside to run for governor in 2006, Steve Kagen won this seat amid the Democratic wave that year.  Two years later, the man he defeated, Republican John Gard, tried to take it back for the GOP.  Alas, the second blue wave in as many cycles proved too much, and he lost round two against Kagen as well.  This year, Kagen will attempt something that no Democrat in a century has accomplished here - winning a third term.  In this narrowly divided district (PVI R+2), the national mood will make the feat more difficult than winning his first two terms.  Who he'll face in the general election is still to be determined, though the front runner in terms of cash on hand is businessman Reid Ribble.  As the filing deadline in Wisconsin is still over two months away and the primaries won't be held until September, gauging this race right now is mostly guesswork.  The initial projection based on pundit ratings gives Kagen an early Mod DEM Hold advantage.  But a lot can happen between now and September to alter the make-up of this one heading into a shortened general election season.

Check out the Wisconsin state page for more details.

Next stop:  Wyoming!



Filed under:  Wisconsin  WI Senate  WI House  WI Governor 

House District 1:  There is no senate race this year and the governor is set for another 2 years as well.  So, we begin and end our hot-race preview with West Virginia's lone competitive House race.  As Democrat Allan Mollohan begins his run for a fifteenth term, he finds himself in an unenviable position on several fronts.  Like a boatload of other Democrats on Capitol Hill, he must navigate increasingly Republican seas, a threat that is exacerbated first by this district's significant lean toward the GOP (Cook PVI R+9) and then by his weak fundraising numbers so far this year.  He currently has just $280,000 cash on hand, essentially matching his probable GOP opponent, former state GOP Chairman David McKinley.  And Mollohan's troubles include internal partisan forces at work against him, too.  State Senator Michael Oliverio is mounting a primary challenge and using Mollohan's vote against cap and trade as a wedge to try to dislodge support of the Democratic base in the district.  While Mollohan shouldn't have much trouble gaining the nomination, any tacking to the left to shore up his base will likely prove detrimental to his appeal in the general election.  Pundits appear to just be waking up to Mollohan's serious degree of vulnerability this cycle.  Charlie Cook reacted first, moving this race to toss-up back in February.  Stuart Rothenberg followed, changing the rating to "Tilt Dem" last month.  Larry Sabato and CQ Politics, however, still rate Mollohan the likely winner.  As a result, Election Projection pegs this race as a Weak DEM Hold, but this is clearly a race moving in the direction of the Republicans.

West Virginia's state page has more details on this race and other facets of the Mountain State's political make-up.

Next stop:  Wisconsin



Filed under:  West Virginia  WV House