Senate:  One shining star for the GOP over recent election cycles is Congressman Mike Castle.  The popular Republican has breezed to several terms in the House.  Since Delaware only has the one at-large seat in the House, all Castle's victories have been statewide - a fact which puts him in a strong position as a potential Senate candidate.  With Joe Biden's promotion to Vice-President, the allure of a Senate run became too tempting for the Capitol Hill veteran, and he decided jump into the race.  His likely opponent in the general election is none other than the Veep's son, Beau Biden.  Certainly Biden's pedigree lends considerable weight to his candidacy, but Castle's popularity should be enough to overcome the Biden name, resulting in a Weak GOP Gain.

House At-Large District:  The downside to Mike Castle's likely ascendancy to the Senate is the House seat he leaves behind.  In a state like Delaware, the only thing keeping it in GOP hands is a Republican anomaly like Castle.  Now that he is no longer in the picture, this seat is a sure Democratic pick-up.  In fact, it will be tracked here at Election Projection not because it will be all that competitive, but because a takeover is - for our purposes - hotly contested by definition.  I'll give it a Mod DEM Gain rating to start, but don't be surprised if the Democratic candidate wins by a margin reminiscent of other Democratic victories here lately.

Check out the Delaware state page for more information.

Next stop: Florida



Filed under:  Delaware  DE Senate  DE House 

Senate:  Christopher Dodd is the sitting Democratic senator up for re-election next year.  One might suspect with five terms under his belt in a solid blue state, that his re-election is secure.  That would not be the case, however.  Senator Dodd's role in the recent financial fiasco and his part in writing huge bonuses for AIG executives into this year's stimulus package have damaged him politically.  Unfortunately, he also faces a formidable Republican in his quest for a sixth term.  GOPer Rob Simmons served as congressman from Connecticut's 2nd district for 6 years before being unseated in the blue wave election of 2006.  He's back to contest for Dodd's seat.  Early polls indicate he's the frontrunner in this race.  He'll start off here as the author of a Weak GOP Gain.

Governor:  After Republican John Rowland's resignation in 2004, his Lt. Governor, Jodi Rell, so impressed Connecticut voters that she won election in her own right in 2006 by a nearly two-to-one margin.  Her recent decision to retire in 2011 moves this race from a no-brainer GOP retention to an obvious Democratic takeover.  Several Democrats have lined up pick this low-hanging fruit.  That group includes millionaire and failed 2006 Senate candidate Ned Lamont.  As you'll remember, he won the Democratic primary that year, beating seating senator and recent independent, Joe Lieberman.  Susan Bysiewicz, Connecticut's Secretary of State, will give Lamont a tough run for his money - pun intended.  The race between these two will most likely produce Connecticut's next governor.  I'm predicting a relatively easy Democratic victory in November - let's call it a Mod DEM Gain for now.

There aren't any hotly contested congressional districts in Connecticut this year now that the legacy Republicans have all been defeated.  Check the Connecticut State Page for more details on all the races.

Next stop:  Delaware.



Filed under:  Connecticut  CT Senate  CT Governor 

Senate:  Incumbent Michael Bennet, a Democrat who has never run for public office, was appointed by Governor Bill Ritter to fill the seat vacated by Ken Salazar.  Salazar accepted President Obama's offer to become Secretary of the Interior.  After less than two years in office, Bennet will be seeking election in his own right.  Retaining his seat, however, will be a difficult task.  His quest will first be tested by a strong primary challenger, former Speaker of the House Andrew Romanoff.  Then, if he manages to secure the nomination, he will probably be up against Republican Jane Norton.  Norton, a former Lt. Governor, held a 9 point lead over Bennet in a Rasmussen poll released back in September.  Given that the same poll showed her up 8 against Romanoff, this race will start as a Weak GOP Gain.

Governor:  Democrat Bill Ritter won the Colorado Governor's Mansion in a rout 4 years ago when GOP challenger Bob Beauprez committed several PR blunders down the stretch.  Three years later, Ritter has seen his popularity decline under the weight of a bad economy and a budget shortfall.  Ironically, his policies and positions are hurting him among Democrats the most.  Strongly pro-life on abortion and seeking spending cuts to ease the state's money problems, Ritter faces the consternation of two key subgroups of support - pro-choice and pro-union voters.  Like Senator Bennet, Governor Ritter may find a winning margin made even more difficult in a favorable Republican cycle by the absence of Barack Obama on the ballot.  Early polls bear that out.  Just 33% said he deserved re-election in a survey completed by the Tarrance Group.  While it is worth noting that Tarrance is a GOP-leaning polling firm, that's an extremely low re-elect number.  Couple that with two polls this year which give likely GOP nominee Scott McGinnis a lead over Ritter, and it's not hard to see why I'm also calling this one a Weak GOP Gain, at least initially.

House District 4:  Betsy Markey is a freshman Democrat who benefited from Obama's long coattails in Colorado last year.  Those coattails are gone, and with Obama's shine dimming as well, Markey may fall victim to a red wave and a sophomore slump in 2010.  Her recent vote against Obamacare may be, at least in part, motivated by her realization of the struggle which lies ahead.  Both Charlie Cook and CQPolitics currently rate the race a tossup, and Stuart Rothenberg gives just a "tilt" in her direction.  This race could go either way next November.  I'll play it safe for now and rate it a Weak DEM Hold.

Get all the details on these and other races as well as plenty more information on the Colorado state page.

Next stop:  Connecticut



Filed under:  Colorado  CO Senate  CO House  CO Governor 

Senate:  Barbara Boxer first won election to the Senate in 1992 after serving 5 terms in the House.  She is a staunch and outspoken liberal and a favorite target of the GOP.  Despite this, she won re-election by 10 points in 1998 and 20 in 2004.  Next year might prove to be a bit more difficult for the diminutive senator.  Polls show her approval ratings well below 50% and support for her re-election at about the same level.  On the GOP side, former Hewlett-Packard Chief, Carly Fiorina, joins two California state legislators campaigning for the nomination.  The winner of that contest should provide Boxer with solid competition in November.  That said, this is California - so give it to Boxer at the moment in a Mod DEM Hold.

Governor:  The Governator is a year or so away from finishing his second term in Sacramento.  California's two-term limit means his tenure will be terminated in January, 2011.  (Ok, I'll dispense with the Schwarznegger movie puns!)  At the moment, the only confirmed Democrat is Richard Aguirre, a relative no-name whose website has no mention of previous public service.  If he gets the Democratic nomination, the GOP might actually hold this governorship.  That is highly unlikely, though, with the top job in the largest state at stake.  One possible entry is former Governor Jerry Brown.  If he enters the race, he'll probably win it all.  Even though a couple of legitimate Republican contenders have entered the race - including former eBay chief Meg Whitman - I just don't see the statehouse staying in the red column.  On the other hand, considering how Ahnold began to the left of conservative and moved farther left as time went by, it's hard to think of this as a takeover.  Nevertheless, he does have an "R" beside his name, so we have to call it a Mod DEM Gain.

House Districts:  With 53 districts up for grabs, California's congressional delegation should remain remarkably stable.  Even though Election Projection will start off tracking 5 seats, just 2 are classified as "Weak."  They are Dan Lungren's seat in CD-3, and Ken Calvert's seat in CD-44.  Both incumbents are Republican. 

District 3:  Lungren has served three terms in this district (9 terms overall).  In his last two races, he has seen his share of the vote decline from 62% in 2004 to 59% in 2006 to under 50% in 2008.  Even in the blue wave election last year, he won by 5 points.  With the wind at his back next year, he shouldn't have any trouble winning re-election next year.  He can't feel too secure, though, when all four pundits in my calculations rate this race as "lean."  This race starts off as a Weak GOP Hold as a result.

District 44:  An interesting rematch is brewing in CD-44 next year.  After garnering at least 60% of the vote for three straight elections, Ken Calvert barely eaked out a victory over Democrat Bill Hedrick by a scant 2.4% last year.  Hedrick is back for another attempt to unseat Calvert in this Southern California district that usually votes strongly for the GOP.  Obama's convincing victory nationally included a one-point advantage in this district.  A fact which undoubtedly helped shrink Calvert's margin of victory.  This race starts off as a Weak GOP Hold, but I won't be surprised to see it - and the third district as well - move to more a comfortable GOP rating before the votes are cast.

Other possibly competitive races in California include Jerry McNerney's 11th, Mary Bono Mack's 45th, and Loretta Sanchez's 47th districts.  Of the three, Bono Mack is the lone Republican.  Please check out the California state page for more information.

Next stop:  Colorado



Filed under:  California  CA Senate  CA House  CA Governor 

Senate:  Democrat Blanche Lincoln is a case in point.  First elected senator in 1998 by 13 points, she won re-election in 2004 - a strong GOP year - by 12.  Next year, her quest for a third term will be a classic wave race.  Though not comfortable, Lincoln begins the 2010 race in a solid position.  How much that position is threatened depends on the size of the red wave on Election Day.  I liken this race to Elizabeth Dole's failed re-election bid in 2008.  She looked pretty safe in November of 2007 and still maintained an advantage through much of the summer.  Then, as the election neared and the blue wave began to swell, her position became more and more precarious.  Near the end, her Democratic opponent, Kay Hagan, had moved ahead of her, and a late-season attack ad blunder sealed her defeat.  I'm not saying defeat is necessarily in Lincoln's future, but should the red wave become comparable to last year's blue one, a strong GOP challenger could sneak in and snatch this one away.  For now, though, we'll keep this one in the Democratic column by a 6-8 point margin, a Mod DEM Hold.

Governor:  Three years ago, Democrat Mike Beebe bested Republican Asa Hutchinson convincingly.  Term-limited Governor Mike Huckabee left an empty chief executive position behind that year as he sought higher office.  The size of Beebe's victory was indicative of the strong Democratic showing in general.  With no wind at his back, Beebe could have been vulnerable in 2010.  However, his popularity since assuming the top state job and the Arkansas GOP's practice of giving up on races they don't think they can win provide Beebe with a clear path to re-election.  It'll be an easy Solid DEM Hold for the incumbent.

House Races:  None of Arkansas' four districts is competitive, but they do offer a unique phenomenon.  In 2008, all four congressmen - 3 Democrats and 1 Republican - were unopposed by anyone from the other party.  In fact, even Senator Mark Pryor skipped to re-election without a Republican challenger.

Update:  Due to recent polling and pundit considerations, I am adding Vic Snyder's seat in Arkansas' CD-2 to the list of competitive House races.  Snyder, who has breezed through all but one of his previous 6 re-election bids, is barely leading three unknown Republicans.  It would be hard to deny this race is at least competitive and worthy of tracking here at Election Projection.  We'll start it off as a Mod DEM Hold.

Keep up with Arkansas races and find out lots more interesting Arkansas political stuff by checking the Arkansas state page often.

Next stop: California



Filed under:  Arkansas  AR Senate  AR House  AR Governor 

Senate:  After a grueling 2008, GOP presidential nominee John McCain is back at his day job as U.S. Senator from Arizona.  Next year he seeks to keep that job for a fifth term. At 73, he's one of the older senators, but age will not keep him from running again.  (He was quoted recently saying, "What else am I going to do?")  He should not have much trouble getting his fifth term.  Currently, only Rudy Garcia, a former mayor of a small town in California is competing against him, though several more-credentialed challengers may decide to give it a go.  For now, I designate this race a Solid GOP Hold.  One interesting note on this race is that McCain does face primary competition, most notably from Chris Simcox of Minutemen fame.

Governor:  Jan Brewer spent many years in the Arizona state legislature where she championed the establishment of the office of Lieutenant Governor.  Arizona is one of six states that has none.  Ironically, the inability to get that legislation passed paved the way for her to become governor.  In 2002, Brewer won election as Secretary of State and, courtesy of Arizona's order of succession, became Arizona's chief executive when then-governor Democrat Janet Napolitano joined President Obama's cabinet as Secretary of Homeland Security.  Next November, Governor Brewer will be seeking to earn that title via election for the first time.  Standing in her way are several contenders from both parties.  I'd give Brewer a clear advantage to win the GOP nominee early on and a reasonable chance to retain her governorship.  Even so, it should be competitive; call it an intriguing race and a Weak GOP Hold.

House District 5:  Back in 2006, I had the opportunity to sit with Republican J. D. Hayworth at a conservative leadership conference I attended.  At the time, he was the incumbent in this smallish district east of Phoenix, and his race was barely on my radar.  That was just as the blue wave was forming.  He could sense, though, that a very difficult race lay ahead.  Indeed it did.  By the time election night 2006 rolled around, that blue wave swept the country and gave Democrat Harry Mitchell the seat Hayworth defended.  Two years later, with the nation awash in another blue wave, Mitchell held onto the seat, winning by a comfortable 9 points over GOP nominee David Schweikert.  A wave of a different color is on the horizon, and the strength of Mr. Mitchell will be tested.  So far, only Schweikert has declared a run in this race.  Thus, I'll give the incumbent a Mod DEM Hold.  But, depending on how strong the red wave is come November, this race might slide into the GOP pick-up category.

Catch more information on these and other races at the Arizona state page.

Next stop: Arkansas



Filed under:  Arizona  AZ Senate  AZ House  AZ Governor 

Senate:  Frank's daughter Lisa's rise to and subsequent expansion of power in his old senate seat is evidence of the father's diminishing influence on Alaska's voters.  Initially criticized as a beneficiary of nepotism and still thought of as too moderate by some conservatives, the younger Murkowski has nevertheless flourished in her 7 years on Capitol Hill.  Earlier this year, she was asked to serve on the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee.  She is also the ranking member of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee.  Given that Murkowski was able to fend off Alaska's most formidable Democrat, Tony Knowles, in 2004 to win the seat she was appointed to, these prominent positions she now holds make her almost invulnerable in 2010.  You can make her re-election bid a Solid GOP Hold.  In fact, she's probably as safe as she can be for as long as she wants the job - unless she follows in her father's scandalous late-career footsteps.

Governor:  Sarah Palin, of 2008 Presidential Election and Saturday Night Live fame, is the one who toppled Frank Murkowski in the 2006 GOP primaries.  Her path from then until now is world-famous.  Back in July, she made her highly-publicized - and highly-scrutinized - exit from Alaska's governorship.  Speculation abounds as to her motives.  One theory advanced is that she wanted to help secure the statehouse for then-Lt. Governor Sean Parnell.  Her resignation elevated Parnell to governor and gave him the inside track in the 2010 governor's race.  Since assuming office, he has impressed Alaskans.  His favorability ratings were pegged at 80% by a Dittman poll conducted last month.  He won't win 80% of the vote next November, but I'm predicting he'll win enough votes for me to call this race a Solid GOP Hold as well.

House At-Large District:  All statewide races in Alaska won't be solid GOP holds.  Nineteen-term Congressman Don Young is in for a much closer race - if he doesn't choose to retire.  Once a tugboat captain, elementary school teacher and gold-miner, the man sometimes dubbed "Alaska's third senator" for his longevity in Alaska's sole House seat is no stranger to scandal himself, which was reflected in part by his uncustomarily close 5-point victory last year.  However, Alaska is a conservative state, and 2008 was a blue wave election.  All this considered, I don't see this seat changing party hands in 2010.  And that's a consensus held by all four of the pundits I use to project House races.  Nevertheless, with or without Young, this race should be competitive.  It starts off here at Election Projection as a Mod GOP Hold.

For the details, don't miss the Alaska State Page.

Next stop:  Arizona



Filed under:  Alaska  AK Senate  AK House  AK Governor 

Senate:  Richard Shelby has been a solid conservative voice in Alabama since even before he switched parties back in the '90s.  He will remain such on Capitol Hill for another term.  His race for a fifth term will be a Solid GOP Hold.

Governor:  Term-limited incumbent Republican Bob Riley cannot seek a third term.  Without him in the race, the GOP will pick among several who have already declared intentions to run for the nomination.  Most boast solid credentials, and the primary winner will be the favorite to win next November.  On the other side, Artur Davis, U.S. Representative from AL CD-7 also brings legitimate credentials to his quest for the Democratic nomination.  He'll have to get past Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks to move on to the general election.  Regardless of whom each party selects, the GOP looks set to retain the Alabama statehouse.  Though not a shoo-in, I'll call this race a Strong GOP Hold.

House District 2:  This seat, located in the very Republican southeastern part of the state, provided one of the closest races in the nation in 2008.  Democrat Bobby Bright squeaked by Republican Jay Love by just 1800 votes out of over a quarter million cast.  Though I found no official GOP contestants yet in this race, any legitimate contender will most likely unseat the freshman congressman Bright.  District 2 - the first on my list of competitive House races - should turn red next year in a Weak GOP Gain and, hopefully, precede many more red flips to come.

House District 5:  Long time Democrat Congressman "Bud" Cramer retired in 2008, giving the GOP a reasonable opportunity to pick up his northern Alabama district.  Amid the blue wave a year ago, however, Republican Wayne Parker could not capitalize and lost a 4-point race to Parker Griffith.  For 2010, since I see a red wave of unknown strength on the horizon, I'm tempted to predict this one, like district 2, will likewise flip.  I sense, though, that such a prediction would be overly optimistic and, while a takeover is a solid possibility, my better judgment renders this race a Weak DEM Hold - at least preliminarily.

Be sure to keep track of these races and check out lots more great information on the Alabama state page.

Next stop:  Alaska



Filed under:  Alabama  AL Senate  AL House  AL Governor 

Whereas yesterday was full of voting and speculation, today has been awash in the spin cycle, each party vying to frame yesterday to its highest benefit.  Democrats trumpet the notion that GOP victories were not about the sitting president but, rather, reflective of the local forces at work in each state.  The GOP claims just the opposite, that backlash against Barack Obama and his policies were clearly motivating factors in the results.

I'm going to bypass the influence President Obama's negatives may or may not have had on the races and focus on broader conclusions from Election Day 2009.

• The GOP has exited the doldrums.  After two agonizing election cycles, 2009 has brought a renewed sense of vigor and optimism to Republican circles.  Fueled by an energized base and aided by a return of many independents, the GOP candidates in Virginia and New Jersey smashed expectations and performed remarkably yesterday - and I'm not talking about the fact that they outpaced what polling data predicted.  Think about it.  If someone had said a week after Obama's victory last year that the GOP would win the statehouse in Virginia by 18-points and even pick up the governor's mansion in deep blue New Jersey, they would have been laughed into the Atlantic.  To me whether the GOP's resurgence in these races is reflective of Obama's policies is not nearly as important as the fact that the GOP has indeed come alive again.
• 2010 is going to be a red year.  Normally, unlike the winning party likes to assert, the elections in Virginia and New Jersey do not accurately foreshadow what the next year's elections will bring.  This year, I believe, is different.  Here's why.  I discussed last month how the aftertaste of '06 and '08 could diminish what might otherwise be a banner year for GOP in 2010.  Last night, we saw compelling evidence that the aftertaste of which I spoke has all but disappeared.  And with it may have gone any chance of the Democrats breaking even next November.
• Open primaries are the better way.  Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman barely lost his quest for the seat in New York's 23rd congressional district.  The struggle between GOP party bosses in upstate New York and the conservative base has been well-documented and often heralded as a grand fissure in the Grand Old Party.  Although I am uncomfortable with the precedent set by the grass root conservative Republicans in backing Hoffman's third-party run, I certainly understand their motivation.  Dede Scozzafava was a wonderful nominee - for the Labor, Green, or Progressive parties.  She had no business being picked by the GOP.  And she wouldn't have been if the New York Republican Party held open primaries.  A primary in NY-23 would have averted all this strife and probably kept the seat in GOP hands.

Virginia Governor:  Virginia State Board of Elections

New Jersey Governor:  New Jersey Division of Elections

New York CD-23:  CNYCentral.com

Check back here too as the night progresses.  I'll be updating this post periodically thoughout the evening with news, vote counts and comments.

Update (6:55pm):  Polls close in Virginia at 7:00pm, in New Jersey at 8:00pm, and in New York at 9:00pm.  This is from earlier today but it does look good for GOPer Christie in New Jersey - Turnout stronger in McCain counties.

Update (10:15pm):  It's old news by now that McDonnell has scored a GOP victory in Virginia - that result became more or less a foregone conclusion in the days leading up to the election.  The 18-point margin is more than I expected a week ago when I made my early final predictions.  Nevertheless, I'm ecstatic to have underestimated the size of the whoopin' that took place today in the Old Dominion.

In New Jersey, with just two counties reporting, Republican Christie has a sizable lead.  While in no way an indicator of the eventual result once all the votes are counted, the margin does hint at strong GOP turnout - a positive that Christie must have to win this race.

Update (10:25pm):  I've updated the link above for the race in NY CD-23.  The new link shows Democrat Bill Owens leading 52-44-4 over Hoffman and Scozzafava with 9% of the precincts reporting.  It's still early, but that's not a good start for my man Hoffman.

Update (10:45pm):  Christie has been declared winner in New Jersey. This is not the result I predicted, but I've seldom been happier to be wrong!  I don't say this very often when it comes to New Jersey politics, but, tonight, I'm proud of New Jersey.

In NY CD-23, Hoffman has closed to 4 points (3700 votes) with 63% reporting.  It's not over yet, but Hoffman is lagging too far behind for me to feel comfortable.

Update (11:55pm):  Hoffman has lost.  The race in NY CD-23 has been called for Democrat Bill Owens.  Still, for a third party conservative candidate to get 45% of the vote - when the GOP candidate endorsed the Democratic candidate - in a liberal, albeit GOP, district is quite an accomplishment and a testament to the power of the grass roots conservative movement.  And with that race called, I will bid you all a good night.  Win or lose tonight, the real winner once again is our democratic process.  God bless the U.S.A.



Filed under:  NY CD-23 - 2009  VA Governor - 2009  Virginia - 2009  NJ Governor - 2009  New Jersey - 2009 

Well, hard as it may be to believe, a year has past since the 2008 elections, and that puts us just one year away from Election Day 2010.  Today also marks the end of the subscription period.  From now on, the state pages will be open access to everyone.  So if you're interested in seeing all the cool information each state page contains, you won't need a password. Just click here for the 2008 premium presidential summary page which has a map leading to all 50 state pages as well as premium summary pages for the 2008 Senate, House, and Governors races.

Shortly, I'll be unveiling Election Projection - 2010 Edition with new summary pages and perhaps a new feature or two.  At that time, I'll also begin my customary tour of the fifty states, taking a look at all Senate, gubernatorial and competitive House races one state at a time.  I'm looking forward to another exciting year, and I hope you'll be coming along for the ride.



Filed under:  Website administration