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  Politics and Elections
Friday, November 9, 2012

2012 turnout matches 2008, not 2004
For much of September and October, talking heads on the right repeatedly pointed to the partisan breakdown of the polls and touted the predicted outcome of the election based on "unskewing" those polls.  Even I dabbled a bit in that line of thinking by posting my version of unskewed polls using three different turnout models - 2004, 2008, and an average of the two.  All along, I will say, I did offer in my discussion of possible poll skewing that if the turnout reflected 2008 instead of something less Democratic, the polls would be correct.

I never dreamed, given the economic mess, the trillion dollar deficits, the assault of traditional American values, the government takeover of healthcare, the blatant mismanagement and lying cover up of events in Benghazi that led to four American deaths including our ambassador, and a parade of other reasons to seek a change in the Oval Office, that a turnout even remotely resembling 2008 would be possible.  But, much to my chagrin and the detriment, I believe, of America's future, the turnout was almost exactly like 2008 in terms of partisan participation.

Four years ago, Democrats made up 39% of the electorate and held a seven-point advantage over Republicans who numbered 32%.  Last Tuesday, the Democrats' share of the vote accounted for just one point less than in 2008 and Republicans failed to improve at all on their 2008 number.  Frankly, those results shock me.  Republicans who couldn't bear to vote for Mitt Romney the Moderate or Mitt Romney the Mormon are now faced with having to bear four more years of Barack Obama, the Uber-liberal.



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