Home  Blog  Election Polls  President 2012  Senate 2012  House 2012  Governors 2012  GOP Primaries 2012  Redistricting 2012  Formulas  Results  About me


 

 
         
    "The Blogging Caesar at Election Projection is one of the web's best prognosticators" - Hugh Hewitt

2012 Projections

President
Senate
House
Governors



Election Projection cannot screen all advertisements appearing here.  Therefore, I do not necessarily endorse the products and/or services shown.


Favorite Links

Hugh Hewitt
Townhall
Hot Air
Michelle Malkin
TheGatewayPundit
PoliPundit
Viking Pundit
RealClearPolitics
Confederate Yankee
Sister Toldjah
PollingReport
Betsy's Page
Right Wing News
Crystal Ball
Atlas of US Elections
OnTheIssues.org
Sell Oil and Gas Royalties

Blogroll

The Anchoress
Baldilocks
California Yankee
Daily Pundit
Dividend Reinvestment Plans
DANEgerous
Daniel Drezner
InstaPundit
Intellectual Conservative
Kim Priestap
La Shawn Barber
Mark Steyn
Michael Totten
Michelle Malkin
Murdoc Online
Mystery Pollster
One Hand Clapping
Outside the Beltway
Political Dog 101
PoliticalWire
Powerline
RedState
Right-Thinking
The Strata-Sphere
The Volokh Conspiracy
Wizbang!

Archives

April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
November 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
November 2004
October 2004
September 2004
August 2004
July 2004
June 2004
May 2004
April 2004
March 2004
February 2004
January 2004
December 2003


  Politics and Elections
Thursday, November 1, 2012

EP update for November 1 - The clock is running out
Countdown:  5 days until Election Day
According to the polls, Barack Obama is very likely to win a second term next Tuesday.  I had hoped, indeed predicted, that the battleground state polls which have stubbornly shown him ahead would correct their peculiar partisan sampling and begin to paint a different picture.  Well, time is running out for that to happen.  And with the last round of state polls from CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac continuing to show Obama ahead in Florida, Ohio and Virginia, I have to admit that the polls don't look good for Mitt Romney.

On the other hand, I just can't get past the Democratic oversampling so many of these polls feature.  If you believe that turnout in 2012 will match - or in some cases surpass - the historic levels President Obama enjoyed in 2008, then you should be comfortable believing these polls.  But make no mistake.  Every poll showing Obama ahead in states like Ohio, Virginia, Florida and even Colorado are assuming that scenario.

I just don't see that happening.  Far from it.  From everything I see, outside the polling data, and, specifically, battleground state polling, points to a climate ripe for the defeat of the incumbent.  That said, I am not going to make any corresponding adjustments to the projections here at Election Projection.  Either the polls will be right and so will EP, or they'll be wrong and Romney will win the White House.  And, yes, that does mean that I'm more or less convinced Election Projection will be projecting an Obama victory Election Day morning.

November 1 Election Projection Update
  Electoral Votes Current Previous Change
  Barack Obama 290 290 no change
  Mitt Romney 248 248 no change
  Party switchers:  none
 
  Popular Vote Current Previous Change
  Mitt Romney 49.4 49.6 -0.2
  Barack Obama 49.1 48.9 +0.2
  Party switchers:  none
 
  U.S. Senate Current Previous Change
  Democrats 51 51 no change
  Republicans 47 47 no change
  Independents 2 2 no change
  Party switchers:  none
 
  U.S. House Current Previous Change
  Republicans 243 243 no change
  Democrats 192 192 no change
  Party switchers:  none
 
  Governors Current Previous Change
  Republicans 31 31 no change
  Democrats 18 18 no change
  Independents 1 1 no change
  Party switchers:  none
 
Next update will be tomorrow.



Filed under: Colorado Presidential Race  Florida Presidential Race  Ohio Presidential Race  Virginia Presidential Race  2012 Projection Updates  2012 Presidential Election 



posted by Scott Elliott at 12:27am 11/01/12::
<< Previous 2014 Election News Next >>

Special Thanks To:

Charlie Cook
Cook Political


Congressional Quarterly
CQ Politics


D.C. Finegold Sachs
DC's Political Report


Dave Leip
U.S. Election Atlas


David Wissing
The Hedgehog Report


Larry Sabato
Crystal Ball


Richard & Tony
The Green Papers


Rose Institute
Redistricting in America


Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
RealClearPolitics

Election Projection Resources
 
EP's RSS Feed

RSS Feed  RSS
Search this site

provided by Google
Contact Me

e-mail Scott at:
electionprojection-at-
gmail <put a period here> com
 
©Copyright 2003-2013 Scott Elliott, All Rights Reserved