On the other hand, I just can't get past the Democratic oversampling so many of these polls feature.  If you believe that turnout in 2012 will match - or in some cases surpass - the historic levels President Obama enjoyed in 2008, then you should be comfortable believing these polls.  But make no mistake.  Every poll showing Obama ahead in states like Ohio, Virginia, Florida and even Colorado are assuming that scenario.

I just don't see that happening.  Far from it.  From everything I see, outside the polling data, and, specifically, battleground state polling, points to a climate ripe for the defeat of the incumbent.  That said, I am not going to make any corresponding adjustments to the projections here at Election Projection.  Either the polls will be right and so will EP, or they'll be wrong and Romney will win the White House.  And, yes, that does mean that I'm more or less convinced Election Projection will be projecting an Obama victory Election Day morning.