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2012 Projections


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  Politics and Elections
Thursday, November 1, 2012

EP update for November 1 - The clock is running out
Countdown:  5 days until Election Day
According to the polls, Barack Obama is very likely to win a second term next Tuesday.  I had hoped, indeed predicted, that the battleground state polls which have stubbornly shown him ahead would correct their peculiar partisan sampling and begin to paint a different picture.  Well, time is running out for that to happen.  And with the last round of state polls from CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac continuing to show Obama ahead in Florida, Ohio and Virginia, I have to admit that the polls don't look good for Mitt Romney.

On the other hand, I just can't get past the Democratic oversampling so many of these polls feature.  If you believe that turnout in 2012 will match - or in some cases surpass - the historic levels President Obama enjoyed in 2008, then you should be comfortable believing these polls.  But make no mistake.  Every poll showing Obama ahead in states like Ohio, Virginia, Florida and even Colorado are assuming that scenario.

I just don't see that happening.  Far from it.  From everything I see, outside the polling data, and, specifically, battleground state polling, points to a climate ripe for the defeat of the incumbent.  That said, I am not going to make any corresponding adjustments to the projections here at Election Projection.  Either the polls will be right and so will EP, or they'll be wrong and Romney will win the White House.  And, yes, that does mean that I'm more or less convinced Election Projection will be projecting an Obama victory Election Day morning.

November 1 Election Projection Update
  Electoral Votes Current Previous Change
  Barack Obama 290 290 no change
  Mitt Romney 248 248 no change
  Party switchers:  none
  Popular Vote Current Previous Change
  Mitt Romney 49.4 49.6 -0.2
  Barack Obama 49.1 48.9 +0.2
  Party switchers:  none
  U.S. Senate Current Previous Change
  Democrats 51 51 no change
  Republicans 47 47 no change
  Independents 2 2 no change
  Party switchers:  none
  U.S. House Current Previous Change
  Republicans 243 243 no change
  Democrats 192 192 no change
  Party switchers:  none
  Governors Current Previous Change
  Republicans 31 31 no change
  Democrats 18 18 no change
  Independents 1 1 no change
  Party switchers:  none
Next update will be tomorrow.

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