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  Politics and Elections
Friday, November 2, 2012

EP update for November 2 - Parties swap a Senate seat for a House seat
Countdown:  4 days until Election Day
Wisconsin Senate Race
Former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson, a Republican, has pulled ahead of Democrat Tammy Baldwin in the race to fill outgoing Democrat Herb Kohl's Senate seat.  Thompson leads in three of the five polls included in EP's calculations today.  All five say the race is within 3 points either way, but the average puts Thompson up by 0.2%.  Clearly, we're in for a nail-biter on Tuesday night in Wisconsin.  This is a race either candidate could win.  With this new projected takeover, Republicans shrink the Democrats' majority in the Senate but still trail 52-48 including the two likely independents who will caucus with the Democrats.

Unlike Wisconsin, where the range of poll results is just 6 points, the polling for the headliner Virginia Senate race between Republican George Allen and Democrat Time Kaine is all over the place.  Two recent Old Dominion polls give Allen five and two-point leads.  Three others favor Kaine by four, seven and one.  That's an eleven point spread that makes the outcome of the race very cloudy.  But, I'd rather be in Kaine's position, and he is favored to keep the seat for the Democrats as of four days out.

California House District 52 Race
Republican incumbent Brian Bilbray and Democrat challenger Scott Peters continue their back and forth battle on the West Coast.  This race has flipped from Bilbray to Peters (on Sept 13), from Peters to Bilbray (on Oct 23), and now back to Peters in today's update.  As a result, Democrats have erased the one-seat net gain Republicans attained just two days ago.  We're now at a "no-change" proposition in the House projections.

November 2 Election Projection Update
  Electoral Votes Current Previous Change
  Barack Obama 290 290 no change
  Mitt Romney 248 248 no change
  Party switchers:  none
  Popular Vote Current Previous Change
  Mitt Romney 49.4 49.4 no change
  Barack Obama 49.0 49.1 -0.1
  Party switchers:  none
  U.S. Senate Current Previous Change
  Democrats 50 51 -1
  Republicans 48 47 +1
  Independents 2 2 no change
  Party switchers:  Wisconsin
  U.S. House Current Previous Change
  Republicans 242 243 -1
  Democrats 193 192 +1
  Party switchers:  California CD-52
  Governors Current Previous Change
  Republicans 31 31 no change
  Democrats 18 18 no change
  Independents 1 1 no change
  Party switchers:  none
Next update will be tomorrow.  It will be the next-to-next-to-last one.  After tomorrow's update, I'll post an update on Monday before the final update Tuesday morning.  Also, this weekend, I'll be calculating the final edition of my unskewed polls page, and finalizing Election Projection's 2012 Election Results page.  I think that resource will be very interesting to watch Tuesday night, so be sure to make plans to come back often to track how the Race for the White House and the Battle for the Senate are turning out.

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