Countdown: 4 days until Election Day
Wisconsin Senate Race
Former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson, a Republican, has pulled ahead of Democrat Tammy Baldwin in the race to fill outgoing Democrat Herb Kohl's Senate seat.
Thompson leads in three of the five polls included in EP's calculations today. All five say the race is within 3 points either way, but the average puts Thompson up by
0.2%. Clearly, we're in for a nail-biter on Tuesday night in Wisconsin. This is a race either candidate could win. With this new projected takeover, Republicans shrink
the Democrats' majority in the Senate but still trail 52-48 including the two likely independents who will caucus with the Democrats.
Unlike Wisconsin, where the range of poll results is just 6 points, the polling for the headliner
Virginia Senate race between Republican George Allen and Democrat Time Kaine
is all over the place. Two recent Old Dominion polls give Allen five and two-point leads. Three others favor Kaine by four, seven and one. That's an
eleven point spread that makes the outcome of the race very cloudy. But, I'd rather be in Kaine's position, and he is favored to keep the seat for the Democrats as
of four days out.
California House District 52 Race
Republican incumbent Brian Bilbray and Democrat challenger Scott Peters continue their back and forth battle on the West Coast. This race has flipped from
Bilbray to Peters (on Sept 13), from Peters to Bilbray (on Oct 23), and now back to Peters in today's update. As a result, Democrats have erased the one-seat net
gain Republicans attained just two days ago. We're now at a "no-change" proposition
in the House projections.
| November 2 Election Projection Update |
| Electoral Votes |
Current |
Previous |
Change |
| Barack Obama |
290 |
290 |
no change |
| Mitt Romney |
248 |
248 |
no change |
| Party switchers: none |
| |
| Popular Vote |
Current |
Previous |
Change |
| Mitt Romney |
49.4 |
49.4 |
no change |
| Barack Obama |
49.0 |
49.1 |
-0.1 |
| Party switchers: none |
| |
| U.S. Senate |
Current |
Previous |
Change |
| Democrats |
50 |
51 |
-1 |
| Republicans |
48 |
47 |
+1 |
| Independents |
2 |
2 |
no change |
| Party switchers: Wisconsin |
| |
| U.S. House |
Current |
Previous |
Change |
| Republicans |
242 |
243 |
-1 |
| Democrats |
193 |
192 |
+1 |
| Party switchers: California CD-52 |
| |
| Governors |
Current |
Previous |
Change |
| Republicans |
31 |
31 |
no change |
| Democrats |
18 |
18 |
no change |
| Independents |
1 |
1 |
no change |
| Party switchers: none |
| |
|
Next update will be tomorrow. It will be the next-to-next-to-last one. After tomorrow's update, I'll post an update on Monday before the final update Tuesday
morning. Also, this weekend, I'll be calculating the final edition of my
unskewed polls page, and finalizing Election Projection's
2012 Election Results page. I think that resource will be very interesting to watch Tuesday
night, so be sure to make plans to come back often to track how the Race for the White House and the Battle for the Senate are turning out.
Filed under:
Wisconsin Presidential Race
California House District 52 Race
2012 Projection Updates
2012 Presidential Election
Senate '12
2012 House
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:50am 11/02/12::
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