Home  Blog  Election Polls  President 2012  Senate 2012  House 2012  Governors 2012  GOP Primaries 2012  Redistricting 2012  Formulas  Results  About me


 

 
         
    "The Blogging Caesar at Election Projection is one of the web's best prognosticators" - Hugh Hewitt

2012 Projections

President
Senate
House
Governors



Election Projection cannot screen all advertisements appearing here.  Therefore, I do not necessarily endorse the products and/or services shown.


Favorite Links

Hugh Hewitt
Townhall
Hot Air
Michelle Malkin
TheGatewayPundit
PoliPundit
Viking Pundit
RealClearPolitics
Confederate Yankee
Sister Toldjah
PollingReport
Betsy's Page
Right Wing News
Crystal Ball
Atlas of US Elections
OnTheIssues.org
Sell Oil and Gas Royalties

Blogroll

The Anchoress
Baldilocks
California Yankee
Daily Pundit
Dividend Reinvestment Plans
DANEgerous
Daniel Drezner
InstaPundit
Intellectual Conservative
Kim Priestap
La Shawn Barber
Mark Steyn
Michael Totten
Michelle Malkin
Murdoc Online
Mystery Pollster
One Hand Clapping
Outside the Beltway
Political Dog 101
PoliticalWire
Powerline
RedState
Right-Thinking
The Strata-Sphere
The Volokh Conspiracy
Wizbang!

Archives

April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
November 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
November 2004
October 2004
September 2004
August 2004
July 2004
June 2004
May 2004
April 2004
March 2004
February 2004
January 2004
December 2003


  Politics and Elections
Friday, November 2, 2012

EP update for November 2 - Parties swap a Senate seat for a House seat
Countdown:  4 days until Election Day
Wisconsin Senate Race
Former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson, a Republican, has pulled ahead of Democrat Tammy Baldwin in the race to fill outgoing Democrat Herb Kohl's Senate seat.  Thompson leads in three of the five polls included in EP's calculations today.  All five say the race is within 3 points either way, but the average puts Thompson up by 0.2%.  Clearly, we're in for a nail-biter on Tuesday night in Wisconsin.  This is a race either candidate could win.  With this new projected takeover, Republicans shrink the Democrats' majority in the Senate but still trail 52-48 including the two likely independents who will caucus with the Democrats.

Unlike Wisconsin, where the range of poll results is just 6 points, the polling for the headliner Virginia Senate race between Republican George Allen and Democrat Time Kaine is all over the place.  Two recent Old Dominion polls give Allen five and two-point leads.  Three others favor Kaine by four, seven and one.  That's an eleven point spread that makes the outcome of the race very cloudy.  But, I'd rather be in Kaine's position, and he is favored to keep the seat for the Democrats as of four days out.

California House District 52 Race
Republican incumbent Brian Bilbray and Democrat challenger Scott Peters continue their back and forth battle on the West Coast.  This race has flipped from Bilbray to Peters (on Sept 13), from Peters to Bilbray (on Oct 23), and now back to Peters in today's update.  As a result, Democrats have erased the one-seat net gain Republicans attained just two days ago.  We're now at a "no-change" proposition in the House projections.

November 2 Election Projection Update
  Electoral Votes Current Previous Change
  Barack Obama 290 290 no change
  Mitt Romney 248 248 no change
  Party switchers:  none
 
  Popular Vote Current Previous Change
  Mitt Romney 49.4 49.4 no change
  Barack Obama 49.0 49.1 -0.1
  Party switchers:  none
 
  U.S. Senate Current Previous Change
  Democrats 50 51 -1
  Republicans 48 47 +1
  Independents 2 2 no change
  Party switchers:  Wisconsin
 
  U.S. House Current Previous Change
  Republicans 242 243 -1
  Democrats 193 192 +1
  Party switchers:  California CD-52
 
  Governors Current Previous Change
  Republicans 31 31 no change
  Democrats 18 18 no change
  Independents 1 1 no change
  Party switchers:  none
 
Next update will be tomorrow.  It will be the next-to-next-to-last one.  After tomorrow's update, I'll post an update on Monday before the final update Tuesday morning.  Also, this weekend, I'll be calculating the final edition of my unskewed polls page, and finalizing Election Projection's 2012 Election Results page.  I think that resource will be very interesting to watch Tuesday night, so be sure to make plans to come back often to track how the Race for the White House and the Battle for the Senate are turning out.



Filed under: Wisconsin Presidential Race  California House District 52 Race  2012 Projection Updates  2012 Presidential Election  Senate '12  2012 House 



posted by Scott Elliott at 11:50am 11/02/12::
<< Previous 2014 Election News Next >>

Special Thanks To:

Charlie Cook
Cook Political


Congressional Quarterly
CQ Politics


D.C. Finegold Sachs
DC's Political Report


Dave Leip
U.S. Election Atlas


David Wissing
The Hedgehog Report


Larry Sabato
Crystal Ball


Richard & Tony
The Green Papers


Rose Institute
Redistricting in America


Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
RealClearPolitics

Election Projection Resources
 
EP's RSS Feed

RSS Feed  RSS
Search this site

provided by Google
Contact Me

e-mail Scott at:
electionprojection-at-
gmail <put a period here> com
 
©Copyright 2003-2013 Scott Elliott, All Rights Reserved