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  Politics and Elections
Monday, November 5, 2012

EP update for November 5 - Electoral College gap widens as Virginia projection turns blue today
Countdown:  1 day until Election Day!
Virginia Presidential Race
Over 160 polls and pundit rating changes are included in today's massive polling report.  A couple polls out of Virginia show President Obama's prospect improving in the state, and Election Projection's Electoral College map displays a blue Old Dominion as a result.  That's 13 more electoral votes for the president.  Today's projected EV count stands at 303-235 in his favor.  Looking ahead to tomorrow, I don't see that number changing, so 303-235 will likely be the final presidential projection.

The biggest question surrounding this election continues to be the partisan sampling of so many of these battleground state polls.  As I mentioned yesterday, one thing is clear.  If pollsters have accurately pegged the partisan make up of the electorate, then President Obama wins a second term.  In this, there can be no doubt.  However, I personally believe Democrats haven't and won't turnout at the level of 2008 - which is what the majority of polls are predicting.  Therefore, I believe Romney will fare better than those polls - and my projections - would indicate.  Whether he'll perform well enough to surpass Obama in electoral votes is uncertain.

To some of you, these words will sound like I'm hedging my numbers, trying to position myself to be "right" regardless of the outcome.  Perhaps there is some merit to that opinion, but my thought that Romney will win is not without a reasonable case.  Given the enthusiasm gap which favors Republicans all across the nation, the state of the economy, early voting information and the much maligned partisan balance of the polls, Romney's chances really do look pretty good.

Along those lines, here is some food for thought.  An additional and compelling piece of evidence supporting the idea that Romney will outperform tomorrow is implied in the House projections.  Despite the fact that a red tidal wave of historic proportions swept the GOP to a large majority in 2010, Republicans are projected to retain the same level of dominance in the lower chamber this year.  In fact, some Democrats are now worried that the GOP might even increase their margin in the House.  For me, it is extremely difficult to envision a scenario where Democrats would be unable to cut into a 49-seat deficit in Congress that was brought about by an overwhelmingly Republican election and yet still retain the White House.  In this prognosticator's mind, that just won't happen.

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November 5 Election Projection Update
  Electoral Votes Current Previous Change
  Barack Obama 303 290 +13
  Mitt Romney 235 248 -13
  Party switchers:  Virginia (13 EVs)
  Popular Vote Current Previous Change
  Barack Obama 49.4 49.0 +0.4
  Mitt Romney 49.0 49.4 -0.4
  Party switchers:  Virginia (Obama +0.7)
  U.S. Senate Current Previous Change
  Democrats 51 51 no change
  Republicans 47 47 no change
  Independents 2 2 no change
  Party switchers:  Montana, Wisconsin
  U.S. House Current Previous Change
  Republicans 242 242 no change
  Democrats 193 193 no change
  Party switchers:  Georgia CD-12, Utah CD-4
  Governors Current Previous Change
  Republicans 31 31 no change
  Democrats 18 18 no change
  Independents 1 1 no change
  Party switchers:  none
Next update will be tomorrow, Election Day morning.  It will be the final Election Projection!

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