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2012 Projections


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  Politics and Elections
Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Final Election Projection Update, Election Day November 6 - updated
Update:  Election Projection is experiencing serious traffic problems today.  Back in August, I upgraded to a dedicated server that I thought would be able to handle the rush on Election Day.  That has turned out not to be the case.  I am taking some actions to increase the capacity, but it does look like the delays will persist throughout the day.

President Obama, 303-235
The final Election Projection is posted, and the numbers are not what this conservative Republican had hoped they would be.  President Obama is projected to fall a bit short of his convincing victory four years ago but still comfortably win re-election.  Mitt Romney is projected to win all the states John McCain won in 2008 and pick up Indiana, North Carolina, Florida and Nebraska's CD-2. In the popular vote, after trailing for several days in late October and early November, the President has moved back in the projected lead by half a point there as well.

In the Senate, Election Projection has shown Republicans reaching the coveted majority for about half the year, but unfortunately, recent weeks have seen their fortune decline in the Senate projections.  The election season closes out here at Election Projection with Democrats projected to retain the majority by the exact margin they now enjoy - 51-47.

Moving on to the other chamber of Congress, we see another essentially status-quo outcome.  Democrats are projected to pick up just 2 seats in the final House projections.  With a 45-seat advantage after the historic red wave election of 2010, Republicans can weather the lost of a couple seats without significant impact to their majority.

Gubernatorial races across the nation number but 11 this year, and, though the GOP currently controls 29 of them, two more statehouses are projected to join the Republican fold this year.  In North Carolina, where Democrat Bev Perdue decided against running for re-election, Pat McCrory is poised to win a landslide takeover for Republicans.  In Montana, the projection is not nearly as overwhelming for Republican Rick Hill, but he is projected to win nonetheless.

Before I end this final update, let me mention a couple things.  First, thank you so much to everyone for accompanying me on this crazy journey called the election season.  It has been a labor of love to bring you these projections day in and day out, and I hope you have enjoyed the ride - I know I have!  Second, today's traffic is already very high, and I expect it will grow to enormous size by this evening.  As a result, you may experience some hefty delays while the site loads.  Please be patient.  And, finally, we're almost half way to the goal in Election Projection's 2012 Fundraiser.  I hope you'll consider supporting this endeavor by making a contribution today.  Thank you so much!  As I write this, over 300 folks have generously given.  To each of you, I am deeply grateful.

Thank you very much!  Your generosity helps make Election Projection possible.

November 6 Election Projection Update
  Electoral Votes Current Previous Change
  Barack Obama 303 303 no change
  Mitt Romney 235 235 no change
  Party switchers:  none
  Popular Vote Current Previous Change
  Barack Obama 49.5 49.4 +0.1
  Mitt Romney 49.0 49.0 no change
  Party switchers:  none
  U.S. Senate Current Previous Change
  Democrats 51 51 no change
  Republicans 47 47 no change
  Independents 2 2 no change
  Party switchers:  none
  U.S. House Current Previous Change
  Republicans 240 242 -2
  Democrats 195 193 +2
  Party switchers:  California CD-36, Minnesota CD-8
  Governors Current Previous Change
  Republicans 31 31 no change
  Democrats 18 18 no change
  Independents 1 1 no change
  Party switchers:  none
Don't forget to check out Election Projection's 2012 Election Results page for Electoral College and Senate updates every 15 minutes this evening once returns start coming in.

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