This week, even as some pundits are expecting a large tidal wave to sweep out dozens of congressional Republicans, the GOP has managed to pull ahead in three races previously projected to go the Democrats.  As a result, the tally in the House now stands at 219-216, with the Democrats still holding control.  I'm preparing a more in-depth look at the most closely-fought races so you can know what to look for on Election Night for signs of the size and strength of the alleged tidal wave.  Look for that in the next couple days.

On the Senate side, the polls this week have shown an up tick for the GOP, though several races are still unnervingly close.  Jim Talent, amid a big brouhaha over the recent Michael J. Fox TV ads, has eked out a very small lead in Missouri over Claire McCaskill.  That's a change from last week and results in a projected clear majority (albeit tiny) for the GOP in the Senate.

At 51-49 and with the races in Virginia, Missouri, and Tennessee still up for grabs, that majority is by no means a sure bet.  However, recent indicators have moved Montana and Maryland into the toss-up category as well, bolstering their prospects of keeping control of the upper chamber.  (In case you're wondering, I do not include New Jersey on purpose.)

One clear area of advancement for Democrats is in the battle for governorships.  They've held the projected lead in this category practically all season long and add two more to their total this week.  In Oregon, Ted Kulongoski has overtaken Ron Saxton - once again - to gain a projected hold for the Democrats there.

Meanwhile, GOPer Tim Pawlenty's approval numbers plummeted this month and polls have shown him in a dead-heat or slightly behind his Democratic challenger, Mike Hatch.  This two switchers move the gubernatorial tally to 29-21 in favor of the Democrats.  This represents a large seven statehouse gain from the current totals.

The next update will be the last.  I will probably post it some time in the wee hours next Tuesday morning.  That's Election Day, the culmination of everything we've been about here at Election Projection - 2006 Edition.  And an exciting one it is sure to be.  By the way, there's still time to "Name Your Price" and sign up for EP's Premium Content.  To find out how, click here.  I'm contemplating some things I think you'll find interesting for Election Night.  Be sure not to miss it!

Projected Tally

Update:  The changes have been posted.  I will have a write-up posted sometime tomorrow.  Here are the states that were updated: 

Arizona | Arkansas | California | Colorado | Connecticut | Delaware | Florida | Hawaii | Indiana | Kentucky | Maine | Maryland | Massachusetts | Michigan | Minnesota | Mississippi | Missouri | Montana | Nebraska | Nevada | New Jersey | New Mexico | New York | North Dakota | Ohio | Pennsylvania | Rhode Island | South Carolina | Tennessee | Texas | Utah | Vermont | Virginia | Washington | West Virginia | Wisconsin | Wyoming

NOTE:  In order to capture as many polls as possible for this weekend's Weekly Projection Update, the Daily Poll Report will be posted late this afternoon.

Hat tip:  Oak Leaf

Update:  Did I mention that the tide is turning?

I would also like to thank several of my fellow bloggers who have alerted their readers to my promotion this weekend.  Without their support, the success of this site would have been reduced significantly.  Please be sure to check out the following websites.

On the House side, did anyone see that Selzer & Co. poll from Indiana CD-7?  When I saw the GOP candidate ahead by 3 points, my heart sank a bit thinking that another safe GOP seat was getting competitive.  Then I realized that IN-7 is a Democratic seat.  Well, lo and behold!  I think we will see this trend of more GOP-favorable polls continue over the last 17 days.  By the way, let me confirm once again that I stand by all three of the edicts I decreed earlier this year.

• The GOP will hold the House - April 24
• The GOP will hold the Senate - April 28
• Lieberman will win in Connecticut - August 10

In the Senate, though not much happened last week, look for polls this week in Tennessee and Missouri to show Corker and Talent with small leads, respectively.  And look for Allen's lead to grow some in Virginia next week as well.  The huge financial advantage enjoyed by several GOP senate candidates should start to pay dividends in some of these close races.  I think the chances of the Democrats taking the Senate are very, very slim.

Overall, it is clear to me that the GOP has indeed turned the corner - if it was ever really down in the first place.  My only real worry at this point is another "October surprise".  As an aside:  Isn't it sad that we should have to worry about some politically-charged scandal being released just in time to influence the election?  I hope we're done with that mess for this cycle - from both sides.  Back to my optimism.  I believe now that the effort by the media to portray the GOP faithful as depressed and unenergized has failed to produce GOP faithful who are depressed and unenergized.  That is the main reason I'm feeling good this week.

The next update is planned for Saturday, Oct. 28.  It will be the next-to-last update.  I will have a final update on Monday night November 6th.

Projected Tally

I do think that, barring another October Surprise, we have hit bottom from a Republican perspective.  With 19 GOP seats now painted blue and 8 more within 2 points of going to the Democrats, that puts the bottom at 27.  Right now, I see that as the maximum number of possible losses the GOP could sustain.  (The number could grow by two or three if everything goes right for the Democrats.)

On the other hand, only two GOP seats are projected to be lost by more than 4 points, and only 12 by more than 2 points.  Clearly, the fight for the House is up for grabs.  The slightest move either way in the coming 22 days will make the difference, hightlighting once again the importance of participation.

The Senate has moved barely back into GOP hands.  Tennessee tilts to the red this week.  With Rhode Island, Montana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania looking less and less winnable, it appears the RNC has turned its eyes (and its money) squarely on Missouri, Tennessee, and Virginia.  The GOP must win two of these to maintain control of the upper chamber, if the others do indeed end up in the Democratic column.

Update:  I've received an email from Patrick Ruffini stating that the New York Times article I just linked to is false.  He contends the RNC will continue funding the Ohio race at the same pace as before.

I've been confident Corker will pull out the race in Tennessee, especially since there is a marriage protection question on this year's ballot.  I remain so three weeks out from Election Day.  Missouri has been a surprise to me, though.  If the polls are to be believed, and that is a big if, then McCaskill has a small but solid lead in that race.  As I mentioned in my Senate roundup last month, this race should prove to be a good indication of national trends on November 7.

Not much happening on the statehouse front.  Michigan's Governor Jennifer Granholm did regain the lead in her race against Dick DeVos, providing the only change this week in that category.

The next update is planned for Saturday, Oct. 21.  If you'd like access to these changes on a daily basis, hurry and sign up for Election Projection's "Name Your Price" subscription program.  You'll get lots of great state-by-state information and daily updates to all the races.

Projected Tally

If you haven't gotten your welcome email within 24 hours, there is a problem either with the email address you entered when you made your contribution, your spam filter has blocked it, or some other technical problem prevented it from being delivered.  Unfortunately, I don't get any notification that the email was not delivered if a spam filter blocks it, and, though I do get notification if the email address is not valid, I have no recourse after that to get the information to you.

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Here are the state pages that have been updated since Thursday.
Arizona | Colorado | Connecticut | Florida | Illinois | Indiana | Iowa | Kentucky | Louisiana | Massachusetts | Minnesota | Missouri | Montana | Nevada | New Mexico | New York | North Carolina | Ohio | Pennsylvania | Tennessee | Texas | Virginia | Washington | Wisconsin

Ned Lamont's victory fired up the anti-war Democratic crowd, to be sure, but it also might have had an unintended consequence - firing up Connecticut's GOP base.  Not for the GOP candidate mind you, but for Senator Lieberman.  In three-way polls before the primary, Republican Alan Schlesinger grabbed somewhere around 10-15%.  Now, he barely reaches 5%.  The obvious explanation is that many Connecticut Republicans are throwing their support behind the slighted incumbent.

So how does this effect the House?  Well, there just happens to be three very close congressional races in Connecticut, a state with only 5 seats in its entire House delegation.  All three are currently held by the GOP.  Lieberman's revenge will bring out Republicans here more, perhaps significantly more, than Schlesinger's meaningless campaign alone would have.

And while they're in the voting booth, they might as well pull the level for their Republican congressperson.  It might seem like a stretch, but energized GOP support for Lieberman may be the difference in one or more of these House races.  If the GOP maintains control of the House by only one or two seats, we might have one Ned Lamont to thank.

The idea just rings of poetic justice, doesn't it?

Cross-posted at RedState.com

Notes:

I remember the late nights sitting on the kitchen cabinets in our home in Honduras.  Dad wouldn't sit on the cabinets; I would.  We'd talk about everything from the Wolfpack to the Diety of Christ to how much corn had been distributed that week through the food-for-work program in the impoverished villages scattered among the Honduran mountains.  The memories are sweet, but they call up a mixture of joy and sadness.  I miss my Dad.  I miss the chats and the chance for more.  I miss the rounds of golf that felt so right, so comfortable.

Yet in my loss, there is hope.  In my pain, there is praise.  The blessings are great and many.  I thank my Heavenly Father for giving me my dad for 38 years.  Even greater, I am girded by the blessed assurance that I will see him again.  I love you, Dad.  Like I wrote to Mom last month, you enjoy your reward.

[For those who have not been reading my blog for long, my father was killed along with my mother and two others in Mosul, Iraq on March 15, 2004.  They were on a humanitarian mission to bring aid to the suffering and needy people there.  My parents spent the previous 25 years as missionaries in Honduras being used as vessels through which the love of God changed countless lives.]

After a delicious lunch (wish I could have had seconds!), Scott Johnson took us step-by-step through the series of events which uncovered the fraudulent Sixty Minutes' hit piece in September before the 2004 election on President Bush's Texas Air National Guard service.  Powerline is the blog that broke the story.  The most fascinating aspect of his story was the sheer partisanship of the ones involved.  Liberal bias has always been on display in the mainstream media for those who care to see it, but the extent to which it drove CBS to air that story is simply stunning.  If you are not familiar with the events I'm describing, you can check out Powerline's now famous blog post, The Sixty-First Minute, to read the details.

On Friday night, I was able to visit for several hours with many of the panelists and Jon Ham of the John Locke Foundation (and his delightful wife, Kay).  Without exception, everyone associated with the conference was great.  I enjoyed meeting them and spending time getting to know them.  You probably have heard here that Lorie Byrd of Wizbang Politics is my distant cousin.  Finally getting to meet her was a real treat.  I can tell from her face that she's from my mother's side of the family.  In our conversation, I was impressed at the insightful observations she expressed concerning several of the topics of discussion Friday.

Another impressive lady was Sister Toldjah of Charlotte.  She was pleasant, articulate and engaging, and you could just tell she'd be a great debater.  She actually got the idea to start blogging and the name she uses from debating on political message boards.  Her story is very interesting:  She blogs anonymously to avoid unwanted repercussions at work.  It's cool to know her first name - like I'm privy to some secret tidbit of classified information.  But don't worry Sister, your secret is safe with me!

A third blogger, Bob Owens of Confederate Yankee, was also there on Friday.  Before this weekend, I had not read his blog.  That's a mistake I will be correcting going forward.  He has a dry wit that makes you chuckle most of the time and laugh out loud some of the time.  And he has a clever way of putting things that is both pointed and humorous.  I looking forward to enjoying his stuff often in the future.

Josh Manchester of The Adventures of Chester rounded out the early arrivals in Greensboro.  He is a marine who served for a while in Iraq.  Like the others, Josh was articulate and intelligent.  His comments kept my attention both in our discussions Friday night and on the panel Saturday morning.  Right now, he is hoping to build his blog, his column at TCSDaily, and other writing gigs into a full-time vocation.  I wish him the best.  If there's anyone looking for writing talent, he would be a great prospect.

John Ham's daughter, Mary Katherine of Townhall.com arrived later Friday night.  The label of "rising star" is definitely not misplaced on her.  She is friendly and smart, a social bug with a head on her shoulders.  Look for her to keep rising.  Maybe she can take Elizabeth Dole's spot in a few years.  Her insider relationships with politicians and pundits in Washington provided some of the most insightful commentary of the entire weekend.

All in all, I was struck most by the intelligence of these bloggers.  It is not by accident that these guys are so popular in the blogosphere.  They are true talents - both with the keypad and as speakers.  I left there thinking that I had been among some pretty tall cotton, intellectually speaking.  I encourage my readers to make a habit of visiting these guys often.  You will be entertained and enriched if you do.

I didn't get the chance to interact much with the other panelists, but I did want to point them out.  Jeff Taylor of Charlotte's The Meck Deck clearly had the best voice among all the panelists.  He has done some radio in the past and certianly displayed a wealth of knowledge during our panel's discussion time.  And Sam Hieb of Sam's Notes rounded out the earlier panel.  He added a more local point of view to the discussion.

Finally, I'd like to express my deep thanks to Jon Ham, John Hood, and Corey Hanson of the John Locke Foundation for hosting the conference and for the invitation to take part in it.  I hope it will continue year after year and grow larger and larger as time passes.  You guys are doing a fantastic and important job.

Senate:  I've said it before, and I'll say it again:  New Jersey is such a tease.  Like the school girl who flirts with you only to say "let's be friends" when you ask to go steady, Jersey dangles early positive poll results in front of yearning Republican eyes, only to end up with the same boys every time.  2006 is shaping up to be no different.  After leading incumbent Democrat Bob Menendez all September, GOPer Tom Kean is looking up at him once again in this race.  If I weren't loathe to make edicts in favor of the other side, I would have to consider a Menendez victory a very strong option for such an edict.

What New Jersey is for the GOP, Tennessee might very well be for the Democrats this year.  Democrat Harold Ford has overtaken his Republican opponent, Bob Corker, in this week's projection.  Corker's candidacy doesn't seem to be gelling very well with the conservative base here.  Whether or not that actually translates to enough lost votes remains to be seen, but Corker, who does not boast strong conservative credentials, should be fine once the election day gets here and conservatives realize he's their candidate.  In fact, The Blogging Caesar is contemplating issuing an edict on this race.  We'll have to see in the next few days if I'm inclined to pull the trigger and call this one for Corker.

Missouri completes this week's trifecta of Senate race changes to give the Democrats a net gain of 6 seats (including Connecticut and Vermont).  Republican Jim Talent is in a race like he's never seen before.  Actually, that's not true.  He's in exactly the kind of race he had 2002 when he narrowly defeated Jean Carnahan for this seat.  My sense is he will narrowly win this one, too, if not too much shadiness occurs in the precincts in and around St. Louis.  Right now though, Claire McCaskill is the projected leader, and the Democrats now own the upper chamber (projectedly, that is).

Governors:  Even though Democrat Ted Kulongoski is polling a few points ahead of his GOP challenger, Ron Saxton, in Oregon.  His approval numbers are bad enough to make up for that advantage.  Election Projection now has Saxton up slightly in this race, one that may prove to be a good test for my formula this year.  Ditto the contest in Michigan where GOPer Dick DeVos moved just ahead of incumbent Jennifer Granholm this week.  Will bad approval numbers weigh down otherwise adequate head-to-head polling numbers on Election Day?  These two races may provide that answer.

House:  Everyone thinks the GOP will lose the House.  So many, in fact, that I'm legitimately worried myself.  However, when I look at the polling data I've seen, the GOP has around 22 seats that are extremely vulnerable.  By that I mean the GOP candidate is currently polling even or behind the Democratic candidate.  In about a dozen or so others, the GOP candidate is slightly ahead.

Does that place the GOP hold on the House in doubt?  Absolutely.  Does it mean a GOP majority next year is doubtful?  Absolutely not.  The key this election, as in so many in the recent past, will be the GOP get-out-the-vote machine.  And the key to that will be my GOP comrades' commitment to ignoring all the nay-sayers and doing what is needed to win.  Look for a longer post on this subject later.  For now, let this suffice.  Control of the House is certainly up for grabs.  I personally don't believe the Democrats can win the House, but the GOP can sure lose it.  The outcome is in our hands.

The next update will be next Friday or Saturday, Oct. 13 or 14.  If you'd like access to these changes on a daily basis, as well as reams of great state-by-state election information, please consider signing up for an Election Projection's "Name Your Price" subscription.

Projected Tally

State Page Updates

I will be a panelist in the second forum of the morning along with Townhall.com's Mary Katharine Ham, Jeff Taylor of Charlotte's The Meck Deck, and Durham's Josh Manchester of The Adventures of Chester.

The first panel that morning will include Lorie Byrd of Wizbang, Greensboro's Sam Hieb of Sam's Notes, Charlotte's Sister Toldjah and Raleigh's Bob Owens of Confederate Yankee.

If you're in the area please do come by and check it out.  I would love to meet you face to face.