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  Politics and Elections - October, 2006
Tuesday, October 31, 2006
Daily Poll Report
  • Virginia Senate:  Webb(D) 50%, Allen(R) 46%

    Constituent Dynamics

  • Arizona CD-1:  Renzi(R) 48%, Simon(D) 46%
  • California CD-4:  Doolittle(R) 49%, Brown(D) 46%
  • California CD-11:  McNerney(D) 48%, Pombo(R) 46%
  • Colorado CD-4:  Paccione(D) 48%, Musgrave(R) 45%
  • Colorado CD-7:  Perlmutter(D) 51%, O'Donnell(R) 46%
  • Connecticut CD-2:  Courtney(D) 51%, Simmons(R) 45%
  • Connecticut CD-4:  Shays(R) 52%, Farrell(D0 43%
  • Connecticut CD-5:  Murphy(D) 51%, Johnson(R) 43%
  • Florida CD-13:  Jennings(D) 49%, Buchanan(R) 47%
  • Florida CD-22:  Klein(D) 50%, Shaw(R) 48%
  • Iowa CD-2:  Leach(R) 50%, Loesback(D) 48%
  • Illinois CD-8:  Bean 50%, McSweeney(R) 45%
  • Indiana CD-8:  Ellsworth(D) 53%, Hostettler(R) 43%
  • Indiana CD-9:  Hill(D) 51%, Sodrel(R) 43%
  • Kentucky CD-4:  Lucas(D) 50%, Davis(R) 46%
  • Minnesota CD-1:  Gutknecht(R) 50%, Walz(D) 47%
  • North Carolina CD-8:  Kissell(D) 48%, Hayes(R) 44%
  • New Hampshire CD-2:  Hodes(D) 50%, Bass(R) 47%
  • Nevada CD-3:  Porter(R) 51%, Hafen(D) 44%
  • New York CD-3:  King(R) 51%, Mejias(D) 44%
  • New York CD-19:  Hall(D) 49%, Kelly(R) 47%
  • New York CD-25:  Maffei(D) 53%, Walsh(R) 44%
  • New York CD-29:  Massa(D) 53%, Kuhl(R) 42%
  • Ohio CD-1:  Cranley(D) 48%, Chabot(R) 46%
  • Ohio CD-2:  Schmidt(R) 51%, Wulsin(D) 46%
  • Ohio CD-12:  Tiberi(R) 51%, Shamansky(D) 46%
  • Pennsylvania CD-6:  Murphy(D) 51%, Gerlach(R) 46%
  • Pennsylvania CD-8:  Murphy(D) 50%, Fitzpatrick(R) 47%
  • Virginia CD-2:  Kellam(D) 50%, Drake(R) 45%
  • Washington CD-5:  McMorris(R) 51%, Goldmark(D) 46%
  • Washington CD-8:  Burner(D) 49%, Reichert(R) 47%
  • Wisconsin CD-8:  Kagen(D) 51%, Gard(R) 45%


  • Colorado CD-5:  Lamborn(R) 47%, Fawcett(D) 40%
  • Georgia Governor:  Perdue(R) 53%, Taylor(D) 36%

    Penn Schoen & Berland (D)

  • Nebraska CD-3:  Kleeb(D) 46%, Smith(R) 40%


  • New Jersey Senate:  Menendez(D) 49%, Kean(R) 44%

    Research 2000

  • Indiana CD-3:  Souder(R) 52%, Hayhurst(D) 40%

    Strategic Vision

  • New Jersey Senate:  Menendez(D) 43%, Kean(R) 42%
  • Washington Senate:  Cantwell(D) 52%, McGavick(R) 44%
  • Wisconsin Governor:  Doyle(D) 47% Green(R) 45%


  • Arkansas CD-2:  Snyder(D) 60%, Mayberry(R) 39%
  • Colorado CD-3:  Salazar(D) 57%, Tipton(R) 38%
  • Florida CD-5:  Brown-Waite(R) 55%, Russell(D) 41%
  • Washington Senate:  Cantwell(D) 54%, McGavick(R) 41%

    University of Minnesota

  • Minnesota Governor:  Hatch(DFL) 45%, Pawlenty(R) 39%

    University of Wisconsin

  • Wisconsin Governor:  Doyle(D) 50% Green(R) 36%

    State Page Updates

  • California | Colorado | Connecticut | Florida | Georgia | Illinois | Indiana | Kentucky | Minnesota | Nevada | New Hampshire | New Jersey | New York | North Carolina | Ohio | Pennsylvania | Virginia | Washington | Wisconsin

    posted by Scott Elliott at 8:55am 10/31/06 ::

  • Monday, October 30, 2006
    Daily Poll Report
  • Wyoming CD-AL:  Cubin(R) 44%, Trauner(D) 40%

    Constituent Dynamics

  • Illinois CD-6:  Duckworth(D) 48%, Roskam(R) 47%
  • Illinois CD-10:  Seals(D) 48%, Kirk(R) 46%
  • Indiana CD-2:  Donnelly(D) 48%, Chocola(R) 45%
  • Kentucky CD-3:  Yarmuth(D) 52%, Northup(R) 46%
  • Minnesota CD-6:  Bachman(R) 48%, Wetterling(DFL) 47%
  • New Jersey CD-7:  Ferguson(R) 46%, Stender(D) 43%
  • New York CD-20:  Gillibrand(D) 53%, Sweeney(R) 42%
  • North Carolina CD-11:  Shuler(D) 53%, Taylor(R) 44%
  • Pennsylvania CD-4:  Hart(R) 51%, Altmire(D) 47%


  • Kentucky CD-3:  Northup(R) 48%, Yarmuth(D) 42%

    Daily Herald

  • Illinois CD-6:  Roskam(R) 46%, Duckworth(D) 42%
  • Illinois CD-8:  Bean(D) 42%, McSweeney(R) 39%

    Lycoming College

  • Pennsylvania CD-10:  Carney(D) 47%, Sherwood(R) 38%


  • Colorado Governor:  Ritter(D) 50%, Beauprez(R) 38%
  • Idaho Governor  Otter(R) 44%, Brady 43%
  • Idaho CD-1:  Sali(R) 39%, Grant(D) 37%

    Opinion Research

  • Arkansas Governor:  Beebe(D) 56%, Hutchinson(R) 38%

    Philadelphia Inquirer

  • Pennsylvania Senate:  Casey(D) 54%, Santorum(R) 38%
  • Pennsylvania Governor:  Rendell(D) 58%, Swann(R) 34%


  • Wisconsin CD-8:  Gard(R) 46%, Kagen(D) 46%


  • Alaska Governor:  Palin(R) 45%, Knowles(D) 44%
  • Arkansas Governor:  Beebe(D) 52%, Hutchinson(R) 40%
  • California Governor:  Schwarzenegger(R) 53%, Angelides(D) 40%
  • Connecticut Senate:  Lieberman(I) 48%, Lamont(D) 40%
  • Connecticut Governor:  Rell(R) 57%, DeStefano(D) 35%
  • Maryland Senate:  Cardin(D) 50%, Steele(R) 45%
  • Maryland Governor:  O'Malley(D) 50%, Ehrlich(R) 47%
  • New Jersey Senate:  Menendez(D) 45%, Kean(R) 40%
  • Oregon Governor:  Kulongoski(D) 51%, Saxton(R) 44%
  • Pennsylvania Senate:  Casey(D) 55%, Santorum(R) 42%
  • Pennsylvania Governor:  Rendell(D) 56%, Swann(R) 38%
  • Virginia Senate:  Webb(D) 51%, Allen(R) 46%
  • Washington Senate:  Cantwell(D) 54%, McGavick(R) 42%

    Research 2000

  • Connecticut CD-4:  Farrell(D) 47%, Shays(R) 43%
  • Illinois Governor:  Bagojevich(D) 47%, Topinka(R) 38%
  • Missouri Senate:  Talent(R) 47%, McCaskill(D) 47%
  • Nevada Senate:  Ensign(R) 55%, Carter(D) 41%
  • Nevada CD-2:  Heller(R) 48%, Derby(D) 40%
  • New Jersey Senate:  Menendez(D) 48%, Kean(R) 42%

    St. Petersburg Times

  • Florida Senate:  Nelson(D) 56%, Harris(R) 30%
  • Florida Governor:  Crist(R) 48%, Davis(D) 42%

    University of Connecticut

  • Connecticut CD-5:  Murphy(D) 46%, Johnson(R) 42%

    Washington Post

  • Maryland Senate:  Cardin(D) 54%, Steele(R) 43%
  • Maryland Governor:  O'Malley(D) 55%, Ehrlich(R) 45%

    West Chester University

  • Pennsylvania Senate:  Casey(D) 50%, Santorum(R) 39%
  • Pennsylvania Governor:  Rendell(D) 57%, Swann(R) 32%

    State Page Updates

  • Alaska | Arkansas | California | Colorado | Connecticut | Florida | Idaho | Illinois | Indiana | Kentucky | Maryland | Minnesota | Missouri | Nevada | New Jersey | New York | North Carolina | Oregon | Pennsylvania | Virginia | Washington | Wisconsin

    posted by Scott Elliott at 6:10pm 10/30/06 ::
  • Sunday, October 29, 2006
    Weekly Projection Update
    As the finish line draws closer, so does the projected control of the House of Representatives.  Two week's ago, the Democrats moved in front of the GOP in the battle for the House.  That update showed the GOP holding only 213 seats, nine less than the Democrats' projected count of 222 that week.  Subscribers know that in the days following, the GOP total briefly fell to 212.  That appears to have been the low water mark for the Republicans.  By last week's update, the GOP had regained that extra seat and came in once again at 213 seats.

    This week, even as some pundits are expecting a large tidal wave to sweep out dozens of congressional Republicans, the GOP has managed to pull ahead in three races previously projected to go the Democrats.  As a result, the tally in the House now stands at 219-216, with the Democrats still holding control.  I'm preparing a more in-depth look at the most closely-fought races so you can know what to look for on Election Night for signs of the size and strength of the alleged tidal wave.  Look for that in the next couple days.

    On the Senate side, the polls this week have shown an up tick for the GOP, though several races are still unnervingly close.  Jim Talent, amid a big brouhaha over the recent Michael J. Fox TV ads, has eked out a very small lead in Missouri over Claire McCaskill.  That's a change from last week and results in a projected clear majority (albeit tiny) for the GOP in the Senate.

    At 51-49 and with the races in Virginia, Missouri, and Tennessee still up for grabs, that majority is by no means a sure bet.  However, recent indicators have moved Montana and Maryland into the toss-up category as well, bolstering their prospects of keeping control of the upper chamber.  (In case you're wondering, I do not include New Jersey on purpose.)

    One clear area of advancement for Democrats is in the battle for governorships.  They've held the projected lead in this category practically all season long and add two more to their total this week.  In Oregon, Ted Kulongoski has overtaken Ron Saxton - once again - to gain a projected hold for the Democrats there.

    Meanwhile, GOPer Tim Pawlenty's approval numbers plummeted this month and polls have shown him in a dead-heat or slightly behind his Democratic challenger, Mike Hatch.  This two switchers move the gubernatorial tally to 29-21 in favor of the Democrats.  This represents a large seven statehouse gain from the current totals.

    The next update will be the last.  I will probably post it some time in the wee hours next Tuesday morning.  That's Election Day, the culmination of everything we've been about here at Election Projection - 2006 Edition.  And an exciting one it is sure to be.  By the way, there's still time to "Name Your Price" and sign up for EP's Premium Content.  To find out how, click here.  I'm contemplating some things I think you'll find interesting for Election Night.  Be sure not to miss it!

    Projected Tally

  • Senate
          This week:  51 GOP, 47 DEM, 2 IND - DEM +3, GOP -4, IND +1
          Last week:  50 GOP, 48 DEM, 2 IND - DEM +4, GOP -5, IND +1
  • House
          This week:  216 GOP, 219 DEM, 0 IND - DEM +17, GOP -16, IND -1
          Last week:  213 GOP, 222 DEM, 0 IND - DEM +20, GOP -19, IND -1
  • Governorships
          This week:  21 GOP, 29 DEM - DEM +7, GOP -7
          Last week:  23 GOP, 27 DEM - DEM +5, GOP -5

    New Race Tracking

  • None

    Race Rating Changes

  • Monday
          Illinois CD-8 - Weak DEM Hold to Mod DEM Hold
          Maine Governor - Mod DEM Hold to Weak DEM Hold
          Minnesota Governor - Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain
          South Carolina Governor - Strong GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold
          Wisconsin Governor - Mod DEM Hold to Weak DEM Hold
  • Tuesday
          Arizona CD-5 - Weak GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold
  • Wednesday
          Minnesota Governor - Weak DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain
          Missouri Senate - Weak DEM Gain to Weak GOP Hold
  • Thursday
          Minnesota CD-6 - Weak DEM Gain to Weak GOP Hold
          Oregon Governor - Weak GOP Gain to Mod DEM Hold
  • Friday
          Maine Governor - Weak DEM Hold to Mod DEM Hold
          Maryland Senate - Mod DEM Hold to Weak DEM Hold
          Minnesota Governor - Mod DEM Gain to Weak DEM Gain
          Nevada Senate - Strong GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold
          New York CD-26 - Weak DEM Gain to Weak GOP Hold
          Pennsylvania CD-6 - Weak DEM Gain to Weak GOP Hold
          South Carolina Governor - Mod GOP Hold to Strong GOP Hold

    posted by Scott Elliott at 5:05pm 10/29/06 ::
  • Saturday, October 28, 2006
    Weekly Projection Update by 1:30am or so
    I'm frantically working on the Weekly Projection Update.  I was hoping to have it posted by Midnight, but it looks like it will be around 1:30 before I can get it done.

    Update:  The changes have been posted.  I will have a write-up posted sometime tomorrow.  Here are the states that were updated: 

    Arizona | Arkansas | California | Colorado | Connecticut | Delaware | Florida | Hawaii | Indiana | Kentucky | Maine | Maryland | Massachusetts | Michigan | Minnesota | Mississippi | Missouri | Montana | Nebraska | Nevada | New Jersey | New Mexico | New York | North Dakota | Ohio | Pennsylvania | Rhode Island | South Carolina | Tennessee | Texas | Utah | Vermont | Virginia | Washington | West Virginia | Wisconsin | Wyoming

    posted by Scott Elliott at 11:40pm 10/28/06 ::
    Friday, October 27, 2006
    Daily Poll Report
    Abacus (D)
  • New York CD-19:  Kelly(R) 48%, Hall(D) 46%

    Anzalone-Lizst (D)

  • Florida CD-22:  Klein(D) 48%, Shaw(R) 42%

    Beneson Strategies (D)

  • Pennsylvania CD-7:  Sestak(D) 50%, Weldon(R) 43%

    Boston Globe

  • Massachusetts Senate:  Kennedy(D) 66%, Chase(R) 25%
  • Massachusetts Governor:  Patrick(D) 54%, Healey(R) 29%

    CBS News/NY Times

  • New Jersey Senate:  Menendez(D) 40%, Kean(R) 39%

    Clemson University

  • South Carolina Governor:  Sanford(R) 58%, Moore(D) 31%
  • South Carolina CD-5:  Spratt(D) 61%, Norman(R) 28%

    Critical Insights

  • Maine Senate:  Snowe(R) 74%, Bright(D) 14%
  • Maine Governor:  Baldacci(D) 42%, Woodcock(R) 25%

    Detroit News

  • Michigan Senate:  Stabenow(D) 50%, Bouchard(R) 38%
  • Michigan Governor:  Granholm(D) 48%, DeVos(R) 43%

    Garin Hart Young (D)

  • Pennsylvania CD-6:  Murphy(D) 47%, Gerlach(R) 44%

    Grove Insight (D)

  • Connecticut CD-2:  Courtney(D) 46%, Simmons(R) 42%
  • New York CD-20:  Gillibrand(D) 43%, Sweeney(R) 40%
  • Ohio CD-1:  Cranley(D) 49%, Chabot(R) 40%

    Hamilton Beattie (D)

  • Florida CD-13:  Jennings(D) 52%, Buchanan(R) 41%

    Keystone Poll

  • Pennsylvania CD-8:  Fitzpatrick(R) 48%, Murphy(D) 39%


  • Virginia CD-2:  Drake(R) 46%, Kellam(D) 44%

    Mellman Group (D)

  • Georgia CD-8:  Marshall(D) 50%, Collins(R) 34%

    Northern Arizona University

  • Arizona CD-1:  Renzi(R) 45%, Simon(D) 32%

    Public Opinion Strategies (R)

  • Connecticut CD-2:  Simmons(R) 50%, Courtney(D) 43%


  • Florida Governor:  Crist(R) 52%, Davis(D) 41%
  • Minnesota Senate:  Klobuchar(D) 54%, Kennedy(R) 39%
  • Minnesota Governor:  Hatch(DFL) 45%, Pawlenty(R) 44%
  • Missouri Senate:  Talent(R) 50%, McCaskill(D) 48%
  • Montana Senate:  Tester(D) 51%, Burns(R) 48%
  • New Jersey Senate:  Menendez(D) 45%, Kean(R) 45%
  • Ohio Senate:  Brown(D) 54%, DeWine(R) 43%
  • Ohio Governor:  Strickland(D) 58%, Blackwell(R) 36%
  • Texas Senate:  Hutchison(R) 60%, Radnofsky(D) 34%
  • Virginia Senate:  Allen(R) 50%, Webb(D) 48%

    Research 2000

  • Nevada Governor:  Gibbons(R) 47%, Titus(D) 41%
  • Vermont CD-AL:  Welch(D) 51%, Rainville(R) 41%

    Rhode Island College

  • Rhode Island Senate:  Whitehouse(D) 43%, Chafee(R) 33%
  • Rhode Island Governor:  Carcieri(R) 49%, Fogarty(D) 35%

    Strategic Services (D)

  • Colorado CD-4:  Paccione(D) 45%, Musgrave(R) 42%


  • California Senate:  Feinstein(D) 59%, Mountjoy(R) 33%
  • California Governor:  Schwarzenegger(R) 55%, Angelides(D) 37%
  • New York CD-26:  Reynolds(R) 50%, Davis(D) 45%
  • Ohio Senate:  Brown(D) 57%, DeWine(R) 37%
  • Ohio Governor:  Strickland(D) 62%, Blackwell(R) 32%

    Suffolk University

  • Massachusetts Senate:  Kennedy(D) 60%, Chase(R) 26%

    University of Arkansas

  • Arkansas Governor:  Beebe(D) 51%, Hutchinson(R) 38%


  • Arizona CD-8:  Giffords(D) 48%, Graf(R) 38%

    State Page Updates

  • State page updates will be listed with tomorrow's Weekly Projection Update.

    posted by Scott Elliott at 8:15pm 10/27/06 ::
  • Pardon the interruption
    We had a little glitch overnight here at Election Projection.  All has been resolved, and we're back in business.  Thanks to everyone for the their patience.

    NOTE:  In order to capture as many polls as possible for this weekend's Weekly Projection Update, the Daily Poll Report will be posted late this afternoon.

    posted by Scott Elliott at 9:55am 10/27/06 ::
    Thursday, October 26, 2006
    Daily Poll Report
    Constituent Dynamics
  • Arkansas Governor:  Beebe(D) 52%, Hutchinson(R) 39%

    Keystone Poll

  • Pennsylvania CD-10:  Carney(D) 48%, Sherwood(R) 39%

    Public Policy Institiute of Cal.

  • California Governor:  Schwarzenegger(R) 48%, Angelides(D) 30%

    Research 2000

  • Indiana CD-8:  Ellsworth(D) 50%, Hostettler(R) 43%
  • Indiana CD-9:  Hill(D) 47%, Sodrel(R) 45%
  • Michigan Senate:  Stabenow(D) 52%, Bouchard(R) 41%
  • Michigan Governor:  Granholm(D) 50%, DeVos(R) 40%
  • Vermont Senate:  Sanders(I) 57%, Tarrant(R) 36%

    Riley Research

  • Oregon Governor:  Kulongoski(D) 47%, Saxton(R) 36%


  • Arkansas Governor:  Beebe(D) 58%, Hutchinson(R) 38%
  • Michigan Senate:  Stabenow(D) 51%, Bouchard(R) 44%
  • Michigan Governor:  Granholm(D) 52%, DeVos(R) 45%
  • Minnesota CD-6:  Bachman(R) 49%, Wetterling(DFL) 43%, Binkowski(I) 5%
  • Tennessee Senate:  Corker(R) 48%, Ford(D) 48%
  • Tennessee Governor:  Bredesen(D) 66%, Bryson(R) 29%
  • Virginia Senate:  Allen(R) 49%, Webb(D) 46%
  • Washington CD-2:  Larsen(D) 62%, Roulstone(R) 33%

    State Page Updates

  • Arkansas | California | Indiana | Michigan | Minnesota | Oregon | Pennsylvania | Tennessee | Vermont | Virginia

    posted by Scott Elliott at 10:45am 10/26/06 ::
  • Wednesday, October 25, 2006
    Daily Poll Report
    Arizona State University
  • Arizona Senate:  Kyl(R) 47%, Pederson(D) 41%
  • Arizona Governor:  Napolitano(D) 67%, Munsil(R) 24%

    LA Times/Bloomberg

  • Missouri Senate:  Talent(R) 48%, McCaskill(D) 45%
  • New Jersey Senate:  Menendez(D) 45%, Kean(R) 41%
  • Ohio Senate:  Brown(D) 47%, DeWine(R) 39%
  • Tennessee Senate:  Corker(R) 49%, Ford(D) 44%
  • Virginia Senate:  Webb(D) 47%, Allen(R) 44%


  • Missouri Senate:  McCaskill(D) 46%, Talent(R) 43%
  • Montana Senate:  Tester(D) 46%, Burns(R) 43%
  • New Jersey Senate:  Menendez(D) 45%, Kean(R) 42%
  • Ohio Senate:  Brown(D) 48%, DeWine(R) 40%
  • Ohio Governor:  Strickland(D) 54%, Blackwell(R) 34%
  • Pennsylvania Senate:  Casey(D) 51%, Santorum(R) 39%
  • Pennsylvania Governor:  Rendell(D) 56%, Swann(R) 35%
  • Rhode Island Senate:  Whitehouse(D) 48%, Chafee(R) 43%
  • Rhode Island Governor:  Carcieri(R) 49%, Fogarty(D) 39%
  • Tennessee Senate:  Corker(R) 45%, Ford(D) 43%
  • Tennessee Governor:  Bredesen(D) 62%, Bryson(R) 27%
  • Washington Senate:  Cantwell(D) 52%, McGavick(R) 37%


  • Florida Senate:  Nelson(D) 64%, Harris(R) 29%


  • Michigan Senate:  Stabenow(D) 55%, Bouchard(R) 39%
  • Michigan Governor:  Granholm(D) 53%, DeVos(R) 42%
  • Rhode Island Senate:  Whitehouse(D) 52%, Chafee(R) 44%
  • Rhode Island Governor:  Carcieri(R) 51%, Fogarty(D) 44%

    Strategic Vision

  • Florida Senate:  Nelson(D) 58%, Harris(R) 35%
  • Florida Governor:  Crist(R) 51%, Davis(D) 42%
  • Georgia Governor:  Perdue(R) 51%, Taylor(D) 32%, Hayes(L) 9%

    Suffolk University

  • Massachusetts Governor:  Patrick(D) 53%, Healey(R) 26%, Mihos(I) 9%


  • Kentucky CD-4:  Davis(R) 46%, Lucas(D) 44%, Houillion(L) 7%
  • Massachusetts Governor:  Patrick(D) 56%, Healey(R) 31%, Mihos(I) 8%
  • Minnesota Senate:  Klobuchar(D) 55%, Kennedy(R) 39%
  • Minnesota Governor:  Hatch(DFL) 45%, Pawlenty(R) 44%, Hutchinson(I) 7%
  • Missouri Senate:  Talent(R) 48%, McCaskill(D) 45%
  • Oklahoma Governor:  Henry(D) 64%, Istook(R) 32%
  • Texas Governor:  Perry(R) 36%, Bell(D) 26%, Strayhorn(I) 19%, Friedman(I) 16%


  • Pennsylvania CD-4:  Hart(R) 46%, Altmire(D) 42%

    State Page Updates

  • Arizona | Florida | Georgia | Kentucky | Massachusetts | Michigan | Minnesota | Missouri | Montana | New Jersey | Ohio | Oklahoma | Pennsylvania | Rhode Island | Tennessee | Texas | Virginia | Washington

    posted by Scott Elliott at 12:05pm 10/25/06 ::
  • Tuesday, October 24, 2006
    More evidence
    The tide is turning; yes, the tide is turning.

    Hat tip:  Oak Leaf

    Update:  Did I mention that the tide is turning?

    posted by Scott Elliott at 7:45pm 10/24/06 ::
    Daily Poll Report
    Albuquerque Journal
  • New Mexico CD-1:  Madrid(D) 45%, Wilson(R) 42%

    Beneson Strategies (D)

  • Iowa CD-3:  Boswell(D) 52%, Lamberti(R) 32%

    Bennett, Petts (D)

  • Arizona CD-5:  Hayworth(R) 47%, Mitchell(D) 46%


  • Virginia Senate:  Allen(R) 47%, Webb(D) 43%

    Research 2000

  • Indiana CD-7:  Carson(D) 48%, Dickerson(R) 43%

    Strategic Vision

  • Michigan Senate:  Stabenow(D) 48%, Bouchard(R) 42%
  • Michigan Governor:  Granholm(D) 47%, Devos(R) 43%
  • Pennsylvania Senate:  Casey(D) 49%, Santorum(R) 42%
  • Pennsylvania Governor:  Rendell(D) 57%, Swann(R) 37%


  • California CD-4:  Doolittle(R) 51%, Brown(D) 41%, Warren(L) 5%
  • Colorado Governor:  Ritter(D) 56%, Beauprez(R) 38%
  • Illinois Governor:  Blagojevich(D) 44%, Topinka(R) 34%, Whitney(G) 14%
  • Indiana CD-9:  Hill(D) 47%, Sodrel(R) 43%, Schlansberg(L) 5%
  • Maine Governor:  Baldacci(D) 44%, Woodcock(R) 39%, Merrill 12%, LaMarche 9%

    University of Connecticut

  • Connecticut CD-4:  Shays(R) 43%, Farrell(D) 43%

    State Page Updates

  • Arizona | Colorado | Connecticut | Illinois | Indiana | Iowa | Kentucky | Maine | Michigan | New Mexico | North Carolina | Pennsylvania | Virginia

    posted by Scott Elliott at 8:50am 10/24/06 ::
  • Monday, October 23, 2006
    Free Access Weekend - final hours
    As the last edition of Election Projection Premium Content's Free Access Weekend winds down, I'd like to thank my readers for a wonderful response.  So far today alone - and we're still counting - twenty-six have signed up.  As I write this, the total number of subscribers stands at 991.  I am so grateful for each one.

    I would also like to thank several of my fellow bloggers who have alerted their readers to my promotion this weekend.  Without their support, the success of this site would have been reduced significantly.  Please be sure to check out the following websites.

  • Lorie Byrd of Wizbang! Politics
  • Scott Johnson of Powerline
  • Betsy Newmark of Betsy's Page
  • Oak Leak of Polipundit
  • Bob Owens of Confederate Yankee
  • Sister Toldjah of Sister Toldjah
  • Jeff Taylor of ReasonOnline
  • Michael Illions of Conservatives with Attitude
  • GM Roper of GM's Corner

    Update:  A couple more...

  • Eric Lindholm of Viking Pundit
  • Brian Credille of Right Politics USA

    Update2:  One more...

  • JohnJ of The Bullwinkle Blog

    posted by Scott Elliott at 10:55pm 10/23/06 ::
  • Daily Poll Report
    American Research Group
  • Connecticut Senate:   Lieberman(I) 49%, Lamont(D) 37%, Schlesinger(R) 8%

    Anzalone-Lizst (D)

  • Colorado CD-3:  Salazar(D) 60%, Tipton(R) 32%

    Chicago Tribune

  • Illinois CD-6:  Roskan(R) 43%, Duckworth(D) 39%
  • Illinois CD-8:  Bean(D) 50%, McSweeney(R) 31%


  • New York Senate:  Clinton(D) 67%, Spencer(R) 30%
  • New York Governor:  Spitzer(D) 70%, Faso(R) 22%

    Momentum Analysis (D)

  • Pennsylvania CD-10:  Carney(D) 52%, Sherwood(R) 37%


  • New Jersey Senate:  Menendez(D) 48%, Kean(R) 39%


  • Florida Governor:  Crist(R) 46%, Davis(D) 44%

    Research 2000

  • Florida CD-22:  Shaw(R) 48%, Klein(D) 43%


  • New approval numbers for governors

    State Page Updates

  • Alabama | Alaska | Arizona | Arkansas | California | Colorado | Connecticut | Florida | Georgia | Hawaii | Idaho | Illinois | Iowa | Kansas | Maine | Maryland | Massachusetts | Michigan | Minnesota | Nebraska | Nevada | New Hampshire | New Jersey | New Mexico | New York | Ohio | Oklahoma | Oregon | Pennsylvania | Rhode Island | South Carolina | South Dakota | Tennessee | Texas | Vermont | Wisconsin | Wyoming

    posted by Scott Elliott at 2:10pm 10/23/06 ::
  • Saturday, October 21, 2006
    Weekly Projection Update
    "A whole lot of nothing going on."  Despite twenty race rating changes this week, the top line in the governorships and both chambers of Congress remains unchanged from last week.  I said last week that the GOP had hit bottom.  So far, I think the polls are bearing that out.  On Tuesday, Minnesota CD-6 went blue.  But on Friday, that was counter-acted by Connecticut CD-2 turning back to red.  Overall, the polls toward the end of this week - excepting some bizarre New York polls from Constituent Dynamics - have begun to take on a slightly rosier hue.

    On the House side, did anyone see that Selzer & Co. poll from Indiana CD-7?  When I saw the GOP candidate ahead by 3 points, my heart sank a bit thinking that another safe GOP seat was getting competitive.  Then I realized that IN-7 is a Democratic seat.  Well, lo and behold!  I think we will see this trend of more GOP-favorable polls continue over the last 17 days.  By the way, let me confirm once again that I stand by all three of the edicts I decreed earlier this year.

    In the Senate, though not much happened last week, look for polls this week in Tennessee and Missouri to show Corker and Talent with small leads, respectively.  And look for Allen's lead to grow some in Virginia next week as well.  The huge financial advantage enjoyed by several GOP senate candidates should start to pay dividends in some of these close races.  I think the chances of the Democrats taking the Senate are very, very slim.

    Overall, it is clear to me that the GOP has indeed turned the corner - if it was ever really down in the first place.  My only real worry at this point is another "October surprise".  As an aside:  Isn't it sad that we should have to worry about some politically-charged scandal being released just in time to influence the election?  I hope we're done with that mess for this cycle - from both sides.  Back to my optimism.  I believe now that the effort by the media to portray the GOP faithful as depressed and unenergized has failed to produce GOP faithful who are depressed and unenergized.  That is the main reason I'm feeling good this week.

    The next update is planned for Saturday, Oct. 28.  It will be the next-to-last update.  I will have a final update on Monday night November 6th.

    Projected Tally

  • Senate
          This week:  50 GOP, 48 DEM, 2 IND - DEM +4, GOP -5, IND +1
          Same count as last week
  • House
          This week:  213 GOP, 222 DEM, 0 IND - DEM +20, GOP -19, IND -1
          Same count as last week
  • Governorships
          This week:  23 GOP, 27 DEM - DEM +5, GOP -5
          Same count as last week

    New Race Tracking

  • Connecticut - CD-5
  • Minnesota - CD-1
  • Ohio - CD-2

    Race Rating Changes

  • Monday
          Indiana CD-8 - Weak DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain
          Nevada CD-2 - Weak GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold
          North Carolina CD-8 - Weak GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold
  • Tuesday
          Arizona CD-5 - Mod GOP Hold to Weak GOP Hold
          Connecticut CD-5 - possibly competitive to Weak GOP Hold
          Kansas Governor - Strong DEM Hold to Mod DEM Hold
          Minnesota CD-6 - Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain
          Pennsylvania CD-8 - Mod GOP Hold to Weak GOP Hold
  • Wednesday
          Ohio CD-2 - Weak GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold
          South Carolina Governor - Mod GOP Hold to Strong GOP Hold
  • Thursday
          Maine Governor - Weak DEM Hold to Mod DEM Hold
          New York CD-20 - Weak GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold
          North Carolina CD-8 - Weak GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold
  • Friday
          Connecticut CD-2 - Weak DEM Gain to Weak GOP Hold
          Minnesota CD-1 - possibly competitive to Weak GOP Hold
          New York CD-20 - Mod GOP Hold to Weak GOP Hold
          New York CD-26 - Mod DEM Gain to Weak DEM Gain
          New York CD-29 - Mod GOP Hold to Weak GOP Hold
          Ohio CD-2 - Mod GOP Hold to Weak GOP Hold
          Wisconsin Governor - Weak DEM Hold to Mod DEM Hold

    posted by Scott Elliott at 11:45pm 10/21/06 ::
  • Friday, October 20, 2006
    Daily Poll Report
    Constituent Dynamics
  • Illinois CD-8:  Bean(D) 48%, McSweeney(R) 45%
  • Illinois CD-10:  Kirk(R) 46%, Seals(D) 44%
  • New York CD-19:  Hall(D) 49%, Kelly(R) 40%
  • New York CD-20:  Gillibrand(D) 54%, Sweeney(R) 41%
  • New York CD-25:  Maffei(D) 51%, Walsh(R) 43%
  • New York CD-29:  Massa(D) 52%, Kuhl(R) 40%


  • Rhode Island Senate:   Whitehouse(D) 45%, Chafee(R) 40%

    Global Strategies (D)

  • New York CD-20:  Gillibrand(D) 44%, Sweeney(R) 42%


  • Florida Senate:  Nelson(D) 57%, Harris(R) 31%
  • Florida Governor:  Crist(R) 50%, Davis(D) 39%


  • Connecticut Senate:  Lieberman(I) 52%, Lamont(D) 35%, Schlesinger(R) 6%
  • Connecticut Governor:  Rell(R) 59%, DeStefano(D) 33%


  • Illinois Governor:  Blagojevich(D) 44%, Topinka(R) 36%
  • Montana Senate:  Tester(D) 48%, Burns(R) 46%
  • Nebraska Senate:  Nelson(D) 54%, Ricketts(R) 34%
  • Nebraska Governor:  Heineman(R) 70%, Hahn(D) 22%
  • Nevada Senate:  Ensign(R) 50%, Carter(D) 42%
  • Nevada Governor:  Gibbons(R) 51%, Titus(D) 43%

    Selzer and Co.

  • Indiana CD-7:  Dickerson(R) 45%, Carson(D) 42%

    Strategic Vision

  • Washington Senate:  Cantwell(D) 51%, McGavick(R) 42%


  • Arkansas CD-2:  Snyder(D) 57%, Mayberry(R) 41%
  • Colorado CD-5:  Lamborn(R) 51%, Fawcett(D) 38%
  • Florida CD-9:  Bilirakis(R) 57%, Busansky(D) 36%
  • Kentucky CD-3:  Yarmuth(D) 48%, Northup(R) 47%
  • Ohio CD-6:  Wilson(D) 64%, Blasdel(R) 32%
  • New York CD-26:  Reynolds(R) 49%, Davis(D) 46%

    University of Connecticut

  • Connecticut CD-2:  Simmons(R) 46%, Courtney(D) 44%

    Wisconsin Public Radio

  • Wisconsin Governor:  Doyle(D) 51% Green(R) 38%

    State Page Updates

  • Arizona | Colorado | Connecticut | Florida | Illinois | Iowa | Kentucky | Minnesota | Montana | Nebraska | Nevada | New York | North Carolina | Ohio | Pennsylvania | Rhode Island | Washington | Wisconsin

    posted by Scott Elliott at 3:05pm 10/20/06 ::
  • Thursday, October 19, 2006
    Daily Poll Report
    Basswood Research (R)
  • Colorado CD-5:  Lamborn(R) 49%, Fawcett(D) 32%

    Cooper & Secrest (D)

  • Kentucky CD-3:  Northup(R) 45%, Yarmuth(D) 44%

    Montana State University

  • Montana Senate:  Tester(D) 47%, Burns(R) 36%

    Public Opinion Strategies (R)

  • North Carolina CD-8:  Hayes(R) 49%, Kissell(D) 33%


  • New York Senate:  Clinton(D) 65%, Spencer(R) 30%


  • Arizona Senate:  Kyl(R) 51%, Pederson(D) 42%
  • Arizona Governor:  Napolitano(D) 58%, Munsil(R) 37%
  • Maine Senate:  Snowe(R) 70%, Bright(D) 24%
  • Maine Governor:  Baldacci(D) 44%, Woodcock(R) 34%
  • Pennsylvania Governor:  Rendell(D) 57%, Swann(R) 40%

    Research 2000

  • Indiana CD-2:  Donnelly(D) 45%, Chocola(R) 40%
  • Iowa Governor:  Culver(D) 49%, Nussle(R) 44%

    Siena College

  • New York CD-20:  Sweeney(R) 53%, Gillibrand(D) 39%


  • Alabama Governor:  Riley(R) 57%, Baxley(D) 36%
  • Colorado CD-4:  Musgrave(R) 48%, Paccione(D) 38%
  • Maryland Senate:  Cardin(D) 46%, Steele(R) 46%
  • Maryland Governor:  O'Malley(D) 49%, Ehrlich(R) 43%
  • Washington CD-8:  Reichert(R) 50%, Burner(D) 47%

    Tarrance Group (R)

  • New Jersey CD-7:  Ferguson(R) 48%, Stender(D) 33%

    State Page Updates

  • Alabama | Arizona | Indiana | Iowa | Kentucky | Maine | Maryland | Montana | New York | North Carolina | Pennsylvania | Washington

    posted by Scott Elliott at 3:15pm 10/19/06 ::
  • Wednesday, October 18, 2006
    The House is up for grabs
    Amid all the doom and gloom about an upcoming bloodbath on November 7, I'd like to point out some facts.  I've taken a close look at the numbers for the 60 or so hot to remotely warm House races.  In my investigation, two items of interest have come to my attention that should impact how we view the upcoming congressional elections.  I draw one conclusion - control of the House, one way or the other, is anything but a done deal.

  • Constituent Dynamics - The most prolific pollster of House races so far this year has been without question Constituent Dynamics.  I had not heard of them before they released a rash of House polls back in September.  Because polling data for House races is hard to come by, I decided to include them in Election Projection's calculations.  Taken as a whole, their numbers seem decent enough, with some notable exceptions.  On more than one occasion, they have predicted the Democratic candidate to win by a larger margin than Democratic polls released at or about the same time.

    Just for kicks, I deleted all their polls from my calculations just to see what would happen to the numbers.  The result?  Six of the twenty House seats the GOP is currently projected to lose moved back into the GOP column.  (Subscribers know that today's tally gives the GOP 212 seats.)  Add six to that and you have a GOP majority.  In other words, projected control of the House - as it stands here at Election Projection - is largely due to one questionable polling firm.

  • Pundit Predictions - I recently completed the process of replacing my own personal projections for the House races with Stuart Rothenberg's more "professional" opinions.  In doing so, I have begun compiling the projections of four highly-respected political pundits on all the contested House races.  This compilation makes up one part of my projection formula.  Just for kicks, I thought it would be interesting to see how the races would turn out if I relied on the pundits' projections alone.  The result?  DEM 215, GOP 213, and 7 exact toss-ups (0.0% margin).  That's hardly a shoo-in for either side.

    The big news heading into the election is how depressed the GOP side is and how energized the Democrats are.  To a certain extent, perhaps, this is true.  However, the numbers don't tell me that the GOP is in for whooping in 20 days.  Yes, we're probably slightly behind right now, but we're not getting creamed.  I'd say we're down by a touchdown going into the fourth quarter and we've got the ball.  There is still plenty of time left to pull it out.  As the headline above reads, the outcome truly is in our hands.  Neither side can or should let up going down the home stretch, from despair nor over-confidence.  This game is far from over - the side who finishes strongest will win.

    posted by Scott Elliott at 11:30pm 10/18/06 ::
  • Daily Poll Report
    University of Cincinnati
  • Ohio Senate:  Brown(D) 52%, DeWine(R) 45%
  • Ohio Governor:  Strickland(D) 52%, Blackwell(R) 38%

    CBS/New York Times

  • Ohio Senate:  Brown(D) 49%, DeWine(R) 35%
  • Ohio Governor:  Strickland(D) 54%, Blackwell(R) 29%

    Glengariff Group (R)

  • Illinois Governor:  Blagojevich(D) 39%, Topinka(R) 30%


  • Wyoming Senate:  Thomas(R) 67%, Groutage(D) 26%

    Northern Arizona University

  • Arizona Senate:  Kyl(R) 49%, Pedersen(D) 33%


  • New York Governor:  Spitzer(D) 71%, Faso(R) 22%
  • Ohio Governor:  Strickland(D) 59%, Blackwell(R) 32%


  • Pennsylvania Senate:  Casey(D) 54%, Santorum(R) 41%

    Strategic Vision

  • Georgia Governor:  Perdue(R) 50%, Taylor(D) 36%, Hayes(L) 5%


  • Arizona Senate:  Kyl(R) 48%, Pedersen(D) 43%
  • Arizona Governor:  Napolitano(D) 56%, Munsil(R) 37%, Hess(L) 5%
  • Florida CD-5:  Brown-Waite(R) 55%, Russell(D) 42%
  • Ohio CD-2:  Schmidt(R) 48%, Wulsin(D) 40%
  • South Carolina Governor:  Sanford(R) 56%, Moore(D) 41%

    State Page Updates

  • Arizona | Georgia | New York | Ohio | Pennsylvania | South Carolina | Wyoming

    posted by Scott Elliott at 12:30pm 10/18/06 ::
  • Tuesday, October 17, 2006
    Daily Poll Report
    Bennett Petts (D)
  • Connecticut CD-4:  Farrell(D) 44%, Shays(R) 41%
  • Illinois CD-8:  Bean(D) 49%, McSweeney(R) 33%

    Grove Insight (D)

  • Connecticut CD-5:  Murphy(D) 45%, Johnson(R) 40%
  • New York CD-20:  Sweeney(R) 42%, Gillibrand(D) 41%
  • Pennsylvania CD-8:  Murphy(D) 44%, Fitzpatrick(R) 40%

    Mellman Group (D)

  • Illinois CD-10:  Kirk(R) 49%, Seals(D) 32%


  • Wyoming CD-AL:  Cubin(R) 44%, Trauner(D) 37%, Casper(I) 4%


  • Ohio Senate:  Brown(D) 53%, DeWine(R) 41%


  • Alaska Governor:  Palin(R) 47%, Knowles(D) 40%
  • California Governor:  Schwarzenegger(R) 49%, Angelides(D) 40%
  • Georgia Governor:  Perdue(R) 58%, Taylor(D) 32%
  • Maryland Governor:  O'Malley(D) 50%, Ehrlich(R) 44%


  • Arizona CD-5:  Hayworth(R) 48%, Mitchell(D) 45%, Severin(L) 5%
  • California CD-50:  Bilbray(R) 49%, Busby(D) 46%
  • Kansas Governor:  Sebelius(D) 55%, Barnett(R) 42%
  • Minnesota CD-2:  Kline(R) 50%, Rowley(DFL) 42%
  • New Mexico CD-1:  Madrid(D) 53%, Wilson(R) 45%
  • Washington Senate:  Cantwell(D) 51%, McGavick(R) 43%


  • Minnesota CD-6:  Wetterling(DFL) 48%, Bachman(R) 40%, Binkowski(I) 4%

    State Page Updates

  • Alaska | Arizona | California | Connecticut | Georgia | Illinois | Kansas | Maryland | Minnesota | New Mexico | New York | Ohio | Pennsylvania | Washington

    posted by Scott Elliott at 1:20pm 10/17/06 ::
  • Monday, October 16, 2006
    Daily Poll Report
    Chicago Tribune
  • Illinois Governor:  Blagojevich(D) 43%, Topinka(R) 29%, Whitney(G) 9%

    Detroit Free Press

  • Michigan Senate:  Stabenow(D) 48%, Bouchard(R) 35%
  • Michigan Governor:  Granholm(D) 49%, Devos(R) 41%


  • Michigan Governor:  Granholm(D) 51%, Devos(R) 42%

    Indiana State

  • Indiana CD-8:  Ellsworth(D) 55%, Hostettler(R) 32%


  • Wyoming Governor:  Freudenthal(D) 63%, Hunkins(R) 30%


  • Maryland Senate:  Cardin(D) 50%, Steele(R0 43%
  • Missouri Senate:  Talent(R) 43%, McCaskill(D) 42%
  • New Jersey Senate:  Menendez(D) 42%, Kean(R) 39%
  • Ohio Senate:  Brown(D) 46%, DeWine(R) 41%
  • Virginia Senate:  Allen(R) 47%, Webb(D) 44%

    Research 2000

  • Florida CD-16:  Mahoney(D) 48%, Negron(R) 41%

    Selzer and Co.

  • Iowa Governor:  Culver(D) 46%, Nussle(R) 39%

    Siena College

  • New York Senate:  Clinton(D) 59%, Spencer(R) 32%
  • New York Governor:  Spitzer(D) 68%, Faso(R) 22%


  • Minnesota Senate:  Klobuchar(DFL) 55%, Kennedy(R) 34%
  • Minnesota Governor:  Hatch(DFL) 46%, Pawlenty(R) 37%, Hutchinson(I) 7%

    Washington Post

  • Virginia Senate:  Allen(R) 49%, Webb(D) 47%

    University of Connecticut

  • Connecticut Governor:   Rell(R) 50%, DeStefano(D) 28%

    State Page Updates - see note below

  • Arizona | Colorado | Connecticut | Florida | Georgia | Illinois | Indiana | Iowa | Kentucky | Maryland | Michigan | Minnesota | Missouri | Nevada | New Jersey | New Mexico | New York | North Carolina | Ohio | Pennsylvania | Texas | Vermont | Virginia | Washington | Wisconsin | Wyoming

    Note:  In order to achieve a more scientific approximation of the House races, I'm replacing my own "pundit prediction" with Stuart Rothenberg's assessment.  I'm in the process of incorporating this change along with the polls listed here.  Therefore, the state page updates will not be posted until late tonight.

    Update:  All state page updates are now posted.

    posted by Scott Elliott at 6:00pm 10/16/06 ::
  • Weekly Projection Update
    What didn't happen last week has happened this week.  For the first time since I began projecting the 2006 mid-term elections, the Democrats are projected to take back the House.  Following a slew of district polls highly-favorable to the Democrats, 7 races have flipped to blue over the last week.  In truth, these projections more closely reflect the prevailing winds of political punditry we are hearing across the country.

    I do think that, barring another October Surprise, we have hit bottom from a Republican perspective.  With 19 GOP seats now painted blue and 8 more within 2 points of going to the Democrats, that puts the bottom at 27.  Right now, I see that as the maximum number of possible losses the GOP could sustain.  (The number could grow by two or three if everything goes right for the Democrats.)

    On the other hand, only two GOP seats are projected to be lost by more than 4 points, and only 12 by more than 2 points.  Clearly, the fight for the House is up for grabs.  The slightest move either way in the coming 22 days will make the difference, hightlighting once again the importance of participation.

    The Senate has moved barely back into GOP hands.  Tennessee tilts to the red this week.  With Rhode Island, Montana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania looking less and less winnable, it appears the RNC has turned its eyes (and its money) squarely on Missouri, Tennessee, and Virginia.  The GOP must win two of these to maintain control of the upper chamber, if the others do indeed end up in the Democratic column.

    Update:  I've received an email from Patrick Ruffini stating that the New York Times article I just linked to is false.  He contends the RNC will continue funding the Ohio race at the same pace as before.

    I've been confident Corker will pull out the race in Tennessee, especially since there is a marriage protection question on this year's ballot.  I remain so three weeks out from Election Day.  Missouri has been a surprise to me, though.  If the polls are to be believed, and that is a big if, then McCaskill has a small but solid lead in that race.  As I mentioned in my Senate roundup last month, this race should prove to be a good indication of national trends on November 7.

    Not much happening on the statehouse front.  Michigan's Governor Jennifer Granholm did regain the lead in her race against Dick DeVos, providing the only change this week in that category.

    The next update is planned for Saturday, Oct. 21.  If you'd like access to these changes on a daily basis, hurry and sign up for Election Projection's "Name Your Price" subscription program.  You'll get lots of great state-by-state information and daily updates to all the races.

    Projected Tally

  • Senate
          This week:  50 GOP, 48 DEM, 2 IND - DEM +4, GOP -5, IND +1
          Last week:  49 GOP, 49 DEM, 2 IND - DEM +5, GOP -6, IND +1
  • House
          This week:  213 GOP, 222 DEM, 0 IND - DEM +20, GOP -19, IND -1
          Last week:  220 GOP, 215 DEM, 0 IND - DEM +13, GOP -12, IND -1
  • Governorships
          This week:  23 GOP, 27 DEM - DEM +5, GOP -5
          Last week:  24 GOP, 26 DEM - DEM +4, GOP -4

    New Race Tracking

  • Nevada - CD-2
  • New York - CD-20
  • North Carolina - CD-8

    Race Rating Changes

  • Monday
          Michigan Governor - Weak GOP Gain to Weak DEM Hold
  • Tuesday
  • Wednesday
          Colorado Governor - Strong DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain
          Rhode Island Senate - Weak DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain
          New York CD-26 - Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain
  • Thursday
  • Friday
          Tennessee Senate - Weak DEM Gain to Weak GOP Hold
          Colorado CD-7 - Mod DEM Gain to Weak DEM Gain
          Florida CD-13 - Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain
          Iowa CD-1 - Mod DEM Gain to Weak DEM Gain
          Kentucky CD-3 - Mod GOP Hold to Weak GOP Hold
          Louisiana CD-3 - Weak DEM Hold to possibly competitive
          Nevada CD-2 - possibly competitive to Weak GOP Hold
          New Mexico CD-1 - Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain
          New York CD-20 - possibly competitive to Weak GOP Hold
          New York CD-24 - Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain
          New York CD-26 - Weak DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain
          North Carolina CD-8 - possibly competitive to Weak GOP Hold
          North Carolina CD-11 - Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain
          Ohio CD-6 - Mod DEM Hold to possibly competitive
          Ohio CD-15 - Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain
          Pennsylvania CD-7 - Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain
          Texas CD-17 - Mod DEM Hold to possibly competitive

    posted by Scott Elliott at 9:00am 10/16/06 ::
  • Sunday, October 15, 2006
    Important message for new subscribers
    If you have subscribed to Election Projection Premium Content and don't know how to log in, I have a very important message for you.  I process all new subscriptions within 24 hours of receipt - usually within a couple of hours.  If you did not receive a welcome email from me with your login information, it was not be because it was not sent.

    If you haven't gotten your welcome email within 24 hours, there is a problem either with the email address you entered when you made your contribution, your spam filter has blocked it, or some other technical problem prevented it from being delivered.  Unfortunately, I don't get any notification that the email was not delivered if a spam filter blocks it, and, though I do get notification if the email address is not valid, I have no recourse after that to get the information to you.

    If this describes your situation, PLEASE notify me ASAP by email.  I will get your information to you as soon as I can once I get notification that you haven't received it.

    (If you haven't subscribed yet, what are you waiting for?  You're missing out on all kinds of good election stuff on all 50 states.)

    posted by Scott Elliott at 9:25pm 10/15/06 ::
    Update is up; write-up to come later
    The numbers are up, but I'm worn out.  So, an explanation of all that's happened this week will have to wait until Sunday evening.  As you can see, it was a brutal week for the GOP.  It will be the low point I believe.  I'll have more on this later as well.

    Here are the state pages that have been updated since Thursday.
    Arizona | Colorado | Connecticut | Florida | Illinois | Indiana | Iowa | Kentucky | Louisiana | Massachusetts | Minnesota | Missouri | Montana | Nevada | New Mexico | New York | North Carolina | Ohio | Pennsylvania | Tennessee | Texas | Virginia | Washington | Wisconsin

    posted by Scott Elliott at 1:00am 10/15/06 ::
    Friday, October 13, 2006
    Kos warns against overconfidence
    Lorie Byrd points to some encouraging comments from Kos, of all people.  Here are some numbers to chew on.
    We're leading in the polls in Ohio, but DeWine (R) had $3 million more cash on hand than Democrat Sherrod Brown, with the RNC and NRSC already dumping what could end up being $5-15 million more into the state.  They consider this a "firewall" state, and will absolutely drown out what Democrats can throw into the fray.

    Same case in Missouri, where Talent (R) has more than $4 million more than Democrat Claire McCaskill.  The NRC and NRSC will drown out the DSCC's efforts as well.  We'll get swamped with money, and this is a race that is essentially tied and will go down to the wire in a state that has been trending Red in recent election cycles.

    Montana seems great on paper, but Burns (R) has about $1.5 million more than Democrat Jon Tester in a state that George Bush carried 59-39.

    In Pennsylvania, the polls have shown the race tightening.  Meanwhile Santorum (R) has over $4 million more in the bank than Democrat Bob Casey.

    Go read the rest for more encouraging words on the other Senate races.

    posted by Scott Elliott at 1:10am 10/14/06 ::
    Could Joe Liebernam keep the House for the GOP?
    In this highly-fluid, neck-and-neck election season, the balance of power can turn on the smallest of factors.  Ironically, Joe Lieberman's defeat in the Democratic primary in Connecticut might turn out to have a deciding impact on who controls the House of Representatives in 2007.  What???  Hear me out.

    Ned Lamont's victory fired up the anti-war Democratic crowd, to be sure, but it also might have had an unintended consequence - firing up Connecticut's GOP base.  Not for the GOP candidate mind you, but for Senator Lieberman.  In three-way polls before the primary, Republican Alan Schlesinger grabbed somewhere around 10-15%.  Now, he barely reaches 5%.  The obvious explanation is that many Connecticut Republicans are throwing their support behind the slighted incumbent.

    So how does this effect the House?  Well, there just happens to be three very close congressional races in Connecticut, a state with only 5 seats in its entire House delegation.  All three are currently held by the GOP.  Lieberman's revenge will bring out Republicans here more, perhaps significantly more, than Schlesinger's meaningless campaign alone would have.

    And while they're in the voting booth, they might as well pull the level for their Republican congressperson.  It might seem like a stretch, but energized GOP support for Lieberman may be the difference in one or more of these House races.  If the GOP maintains control of the House by only one or two seats, we might have one Ned Lamont to thank.

    The idea just rings of poetic justice, doesn't it?

    Cross-posted at RedState.com

    posted by Scott Elliott at 10:00pm 10/13/06 ::
    The weekly update is in progress
    I'm busily compiling the numbers for this week's update.  There are a ton of new polls and pundit rating changes.  It probably won't be up until tomorrow night, which means subscribers can expect the next rating change email alert tomorrow as well.  I won't let the cat out of the bag right now, but I will say this update is a doozey!


  • I want to send a thank you out to Pam in Texas for giving Election Projection and my article, "The Outcome is in OUR Hands", a plug on Sean Hannity's radio show this afternoon.
  • I also need to thank my readers once again.  A short while ago, I received the 800th "Name Your Price" subscription to Election Projection Premium Content.  I am humbled by your generosity and honored by your trust and appreciation.  I've set a goal of 1200 by the election, so we have a long way to go.  If you haven't subscribed yet, please consider it.
  • Finally, I want to address those of you who've sent me emails recently.  As you might expect, the volume of emails I receive is growing with the popularity of EP.  Please understand that I'm at the point where I cannot respond to them all.  I do read them all, though, so please don't stop writing in.

    posted by Scott Elliott at 8:20pm 10/13/06 ::
  • Rightroots - time's running out
    If you haven't, please contribute to help the GOP hold the House.  Click on the pic to proceed.  Donations need to be made by this weekend to impact the races.

    While you're at it, or you if you'd rather eat cockroaches than give to the GOP, why not chip in a few bucks for the American Heart Association?  I'll be walking for the heart on Sunday.  You have until midnight tomorrow to give.  Just click on the pic below to proceed.

    Thanks a bunch!!

    posted by Scott Elliott at 12:10pm 10/13/06 ::
    Daily Poll Report
    Bennett Petts (D)
  • Iowa CD-1:  Braley(D) 48%, Whalen(R) 37%
  • Pennsylvania CD-10:  Carney(D) 51%, Sherwood(R) 37%

    Constituent Dynamics

  • Arizona CD-1:  Simon(D) 50%, Renzi(R) 46%
  • California CD-4:  Doolittle(R) 52%, Brown(D) 44%
  • Colorado CD-7:  Perlmutter(D) 47%, O'Donnell(R) 47%
  • Connecticut CD-5:  Johnson(R) 52%, Murphy(D) 46%
  • Florida CD-13:  Jennings(D) 47%, Buchanan(R) 44%
  • Idaho CD-1:  Sali(R) 49%, Grant(D) 43%
  • Illinois CD-6:  Duckworth(D) 47%, Roskan(R) 47%
  • Illinois CD-14:  Hastert(R) 52%, Laesch(D) 42%
  • Illinois CD-19:  Shimkus(R) 53%, Stover(D) 36%
  • Indiana CD-2:  Donnelly(D) 50%, Chocola(R) 46%
  • Iowa CD-2:  Loebsack(D) 48%, Leach(R) 47%
  • Kentucky CD-3:  Northup(R) 48%, Yarmuth(D) 48%
  • Kentucky CD-4:  Davis(R) 49%, Lucas(D) 46%
  • Minnesota CD-1:  Gutknecht(R) 48%, Walz(D) 47%
  • Minnesota CD-6:  Wetterling(D) 50%, Bachmann(R) 45%
  • New Jersey CD-7:  Ferguson(R) 48%, Stender(D) 51%
  • New Mexico CD-1:  Madrid(D) 52%, Wilson(R) 44%
  • New York CD-3:  King(R) 47%, Mejia(D) 45%
  • New York CD-24:  Arcuri(D) 53%, Meier(R) 42%
  • New York CD-26:  Davis(D) 56%, Reynolds(R) 40%
  • North Carolina CD-8:  Kissell(D) 51%, Hayes(R) 44%
  • North Carolina CD-11:  Shuler(D) 51%, Taylor(R) 43%
  • Ohio CD-2:  Wulsin(D) 48%, Schmidt(R) 45%
  • Ohio CD-15:  Kilroy(D) 53%, Pryce(R) 41%
  • Ohio CD-18:  Space(D) 51%, Padgett(R) 42%
  • Pennsylvania CD-6:  Murphy(D) 52%, Gerlach(R) 46%
  • Pennsylvania CD-7:  Sestak(D) 52%, Weldon(R) 44%
  • Texas CD-17:  Edwards(D) 55%, Taylor(R) 38%
  • Virginia CD-2:  Drake(R) 48%, Kellam(D) 46%
  • Virginia CD-10:  Wolf(R) 47%, Feder(D) 42%
  • Washington CD-8:  Reichert(R) 48%, Burner(D) 45%
  • Wisconsin CD-8:  Kagen(D) 48%, Gard(R) 46%

    Glengariff Group (R)

  • Michigan CD-7:  Wahberg(R) 43%, Renier(D) 35%

    Greenberg Quinlan (D)

  • Illinois CD-6:  Duckworth(D) 51%, Roskan(R) 46%
  • Ohio CD-18:  Space(D) 48%, Padgett(R) 41%
  • Vermont CD-AL:  Welch(D) 52%, Rainville (R) 41%


  • Montana Senate:  Tester(D) 50%, Burns(R) 44% (w/leaners)
  • Tennessee Senate:  Ford(D) 48%, Corker(R) 46%

    Suffolk University

  • Massachusetts Governor:  Patrick(D) 46%, Healey(R) 33%, Mihos(I) 7%


  • Missouri Senate:  McCaskill(D) 51%, Talent(R) 42%
  • South Carolina CD-5:  Spratt(D) 56%, Norman(R) 42%

    Tribune Review

  • Pennsylvania CD-12:  Murtha(D) 57%, Irey(R) 30%

    State Page Updates

  • Just about all of them - details coming later.  If you haven't subscribed yet, now would be a great time!

    posted by Scott Elliott at 11:05am 10/13/06 ::
  • Thursday, October 12, 2006
    Daily Poll Report
  • New Jersey Senate:  Menendez(D) 49%, Kean(R) 45% (LV)


  • Connecticut Senate:   Lieberman(I) 53%, Lamont(D) 40%, Schlesinger(R) 4%
  • Massachusetts Governor:   Patrick(D) 64%, Healey(R) 25%, Mihos(I) 9%
  • Ohio Senate:   Brown(D) 54%, DeWine(R) 40%
  • Ohio Governor:  Strickland(D) 60%, Blackwell(R) 32%
  • Oklahoma CD-5:   Fallin(R) 62%, Hunter(D) 33%
  • Virginia CD-5:   Goode(R) 56%, Weed(D) 40%

    University of Connecticut

  • Connecticut Senate:   Lieberman(I) 48%, Lamont(D) 40%, Schlesinger(R) 4%

    Greenberg Quinlan (D)

  • Indiana CD-2:   Donnelly(D) 52%, Chocola(R) 36%

    Mercury Public Affairs (R)

  • Indiana CD-2:   Donnelly(D) 45%, Chocola(R) 44%

    State Page Updates

  • Connecticut | Indiana | Massachusetts | New Jersey | Ohio

    posted by Scott Elliott at 3:05pm 10/12/06 ::
  • Happy birthday, Dad!
    Larry Thomas Elliott would have been 63 today.

    I remember the late nights sitting on the kitchen cabinets in our home in Honduras.  Dad wouldn't sit on the cabinets; I would.  We'd talk about everything from the Wolfpack to the Diety of Christ to how much corn had been distributed that week through the food-for-work program in the impoverished villages scattered among the Honduran mountains.  The memories are sweet, but they call up a mixture of joy and sadness.  I miss my Dad.  I miss the chats and the chance for more.  I miss the rounds of golf that felt so right, so comfortable.

    Yet in my loss, there is hope.  In my pain, there is praise.  The blessings are great and many.  I thank my Heavenly Father for giving me my dad for 38 years.  Even greater, I am girded by the blessed assurance that I will see him again.  I love you, Dad.  Like I wrote to Mom last month, you enjoy your reward.

    [For those who have not been reading my blog for long, my father was killed along with my mother and two others in Mosul, Iraq on March 15, 2004.  They were on a humanitarian mission to bring aid to the suffering and needy people there.  My parents spent the previous 25 years as missionaries in Honduras being used as vessels through which the love of God changed countless lives.]

    posted by Scott Elliott at 12:45am 10/12/06 ::
    Wednesday, October 11, 2006
    Daily Poll Report
    Akron University
  • Ohio Senate:  DeWine(R) 42%, Brown(D) 42% (LV)
  • Ohio Governor:  Strickland(D) 47%, Blackwell(R) 34% (LV)

    Ciruli Associates

  • Colorado Governor:  Ritter(D) 43%, Beauprez(R) 33%

    Hamilton Beattie (D)

  • Tennessee Senate:  Ford(D) 51%, Corker(R) 44%


  • Florida Senate:  Nelson(D) 61%, Harris(R) 33% (LV w/leaners)


  • Pennsylvania Senate:  Casey(D) 50%, Santorum(R) 37%
  • Rhode Island Senate:   Whitehouse(D) 49%, Chafee(R) 39%
  • Rhode Island Governor:  Carcieri(R) 47%, Fogarty(D) 44%

    Rhode Island College

  • Rhode Island Senate:   Whitehouse(D) 40%, Chafee(R) 37%
  • Rhode Island Governor:  Carcieri(R) 44%, Fogarty(D) 36%

    Strategic Vision

  • Wisconsin Governor:  Doyle(D) 46%, Green(R) 43%


  • Florida Senate:  Nelson(D) 55%, Harris(R) 37%
  • Florida Governor:  Crist(R) 54%, Davis(D) 41%
  • Kentucky CD-4:  Davis(R) 47%, Lucas(D) 44%
  • Tennessee Senate:  Corker(R) 48%, Ford(D) 46%
  • Tennessee Governor:  Bredesen(D) 63%, Bryson(R) 32%

    State Page Updates

  • Arizona | Colorado | Florida | Kentucky | New York | Ohio | Pennsylvania | Rhode Island | Tennessee | Washington | Wisconsin

    posted by Scott Elliott at 12:30pm 10/11/06 ::
  • Tuesday, October 10, 2006
    The outcome is in OUR hands
    I've written an article to combat what I see is an all-out assault on the emotional energy of conservative voters.  I am standing by my April edicts that the GOP will hold the House and the Senate.  The only way I see that I could be wrong is if the conservative base forfeits the contest by staying home on Election Day.  If you're a conservative, you need to read the article.  If you're a liberal, I have to warn you.  Once you click the link below, you'll enter a partisan-Republican zone.  As always, you can be assured that my numbers and my projections are completely unbiased.  But there's too much at stake to let my GOP brethren flounder in the wind of bad news without standing up for what I believe in.  I tried to spare my liberal friends the blatant partisanship by posting the article on a completely separate page.  Ok, you've been warned!

    "The Outcome is in OUR Hands"    

    posted by Scott Elliott at 8:05pm 10/10/06 ::
    Daily Poll Report
  • Colorado CD-4:  Musgrave(R) 46%, Paccione(D) 36%
  • Colorado CD-5:  Lamborn(R) 37%, Fawcett(D) 37%
  • Colorado CD-7:  Perlmutter(D) 45%, O'Donnell(R) 39%

    Muhlenberg College

  • Pennsylvania Senate:  Casey(D) 46%, Santorum(R) 41%
  • Pennsylvania Governor:  Rendell(D) 56%, Swann(R) 35%


  • Florida Governor:  Crist(R) 53%, Davis(D) 43% (LV w/leaners)


  • Iowa Governor:  Nussle(R) 45%, Culver(D) 44% (LV w/leaners)


  • Indiana CD-9:  Hill(D) 48%, Sodrel(R) 46%
  • Michigan Senate:  Stabenow(D) 53%, Bouchard(R) 42%
  • Michigan Governor:  Granholm(D) 50%, Devos(R) 45%
  • Minnesota CD-6:  Bachman(R) 47%, Wetterling(DFL) 44%, Binkowski(I) 7%

    University of South Alabama

  • Alabama Governor:  Riley(R) 57%, Baxley(D) 32%

    State Page Updates

  • Alabama | Colorado | Florida | Indiana | Iowa | Michigan | Minnesota | Pennsylvania

    posted by Scott Elliott at 1:00pm 10/10/06 ::
  • Monday, October 9, 2006
    Daily Poll Report
  • Colorado Governor:  Ritter(D) 50%, Beauprez(R) 35%


  • Michigan Senate:  Stabenow(D) 56%, Bouchard(R) 39%
  • Michigan Governor:  Granholm(D) 49%, Devos(R) 42%
  • Minnesota Senate:  Klobuchar(D) 53%, Kennedy(R) 36%
  • Minnesota Governor:  Hatch(DFL) 44%, Pawlenty(R) 42%
  • Missouri Senate:  McCaskill(D) 44%, Talent(R) 43%

    State Page Updates

  • Colorado | Michigan | Minnesota | Missouri

    posted by Scott Elliott at 10:25am 10/09/06 ::
  • Carolina FreedomNet wrap up
    I had the best time this weekend in Greensboro at the John Locke Foundation's bloggers' conference.  Carolina FreedomNet brought together several North Carolina bloggers for a morning of discussion and fun.  There were two panels on Saturday morning followed by lunch with keynote speaker Scott Johnson of Powerline.  The topic of the first panel was "Local vs. Global:  What Should Be Your Blog’s Focus?" though much of the discussion migrated to politics and other topics of interest to bloggers.  The second panel, of which I was a part, led a discussion entitled "How Has The Blogging Phenomenon Affected Politics and Political Discourse?".

    After a delicious lunch (wish I could have had seconds!), Scott Johnson took us step-by-step through the series of events which uncovered the fraudulent Sixty Minutes' hit piece in September before the 2004 election on President Bush's Texas Air National Guard service.  Powerline is the blog that broke the story.  The most fascinating aspect of his story was the sheer partisanship of the ones involved.  Liberal bias has always been on display in the mainstream media for those who care to see it, but the extent to which it drove CBS to air that story is simply stunning.  If you are not familiar with the events I'm describing, you can check out Powerline's now famous blog post, The Sixty-First Minute, to read the details.

    On Friday night, I was able to visit for several hours with many of the panelists and Jon Ham of the John Locke Foundation (and his delightful wife, Kay).  Without exception, everyone associated with the conference was great.  I enjoyed meeting them and spending time getting to know them.  You probably have heard here that Lorie Byrd of Wizbang Politics is my distant cousin.  Finally getting to meet her was a real treat.  I can tell from her face that she's from my mother's side of the family.  In our conversation, I was impressed at the insightful observations she expressed concerning several of the topics of discussion Friday.

    Another impressive lady was Sister Toldjah of Charlotte.  She was pleasant, articulate and engaging, and you could just tell she'd be a great debater.  She actually got the idea to start blogging and the name she uses from debating on political message boards.  Her story is very interesting:  She blogs anonymously to avoid unwanted repercussions at work.  It's cool to know her first name - like I'm privy to some secret tidbit of classified information.  But don't worry Sister, your secret is safe with me!

    A third blogger, Bob Owens of Confederate Yankee, was also there on Friday.  Before this weekend, I had not read his blog.  That's a mistake I will be correcting going forward.  He has a dry wit that makes you chuckle most of the time and laugh out loud some of the time.  And he has a clever way of putting things that is both pointed and humorous.  I looking forward to enjoying his stuff often in the future.

    Josh Manchester of The Adventures of Chester rounded out the early arrivals in Greensboro.  He is a marine who served for a while in Iraq.  Like the others, Josh was articulate and intelligent.  His comments kept my attention both in our discussions Friday night and on the panel Saturday morning.  Right now, he is hoping to build his blog, his column at TCSDaily, and other writing gigs into a full-time vocation.  I wish him the best.  If there's anyone looking for writing talent, he would be a great prospect.

    John Ham's daughter, Mary Katherine of Townhall.com arrived later Friday night.  The label of "rising star" is definitely not misplaced on her.  She is friendly and smart, a social bug with a head on her shoulders.  Look for her to keep rising.  Maybe she can take Elizabeth Dole's spot in a few years.  Her insider relationships with politicians and pundits in Washington provided some of the most insightful commentary of the entire weekend.

    All in all, I was struck most by the intelligence of these bloggers.  It is not by accident that these guys are so popular in the blogosphere.  They are true talents - both with the keypad and as speakers.  I left there thinking that I had been among some pretty tall cotton, intellectually speaking.  I encourage my readers to make a habit of visiting these guys often.  You will be entertained and enriched if you do.

    I didn't get the chance to interact much with the other panelists, but I did want to point them out.  Jeff Taylor of Charlotte's The Meck Deck clearly had the best voice among all the panelists.  He has done some radio in the past and certianly displayed a wealth of knowledge during our panel's discussion time.  And Sam Hieb of Sam's Notes rounded out the earlier panel.  He added a more local point of view to the discussion.

    Finally, I'd like to express my deep thanks to Jon Ham, John Hood, and Corey Hanson of the John Locke Foundation for hosting the conference and for the invitation to take part in it.  I hope it will continue year after year and grow larger and larger as time passes.  You guys are doing a fantastic and important job.

    posted by Scott Elliott at 9:10am 10/09/06 ::
    Sunday, October 8, 2006
    Weekly Projection Update
    I really thought this would be the week the Democrats gained the projected majority in the House.  That didn't happen as some older polls in some of the closer races aged out of the projections.  Instead, and I didn't see this coming, the Democrats seized the majority in the Senate!  But razor-thin advantages in a couple of gubernatorial contests allowed the GOP to nearly draw even with the Democrats in the statehouse races.

    Senate:  I've said it before, and I'll say it again:  New Jersey is such a tease.  Like the school girl who flirts with you only to say "let's be friends" when you ask to go steady, Jersey dangles early positive poll results in front of yearning Republican eyes, only to end up with the same boys every time.  2006 is shaping up to be no different.  After leading incumbent Democrat Bob Menendez all September, GOPer Tom Kean is looking up at him once again in this race.  If I weren't loathe to make edicts in favor of the other side, I would have to consider a Menendez victory a very strong option for such an edict.

    What New Jersey is for the GOP, Tennessee might very well be for the Democrats this year.  Democrat Harold Ford has overtaken his Republican opponent, Bob Corker, in this week's projection.  Corker's candidacy doesn't seem to be gelling very well with the conservative base here.  Whether or not that actually translates to enough lost votes remains to be seen, but Corker, who does not boast strong conservative credentials, should be fine once the election day gets here and conservatives realize he's their candidate.  In fact, The Blogging Caesar is contemplating issuing an edict on this race.  We'll have to see in the next few days if I'm inclined to pull the trigger and call this one for Corker.

    Missouri completes this week's trifecta of Senate race changes to give the Democrats a net gain of 6 seats (including Connecticut and Vermont).  Republican Jim Talent is in a race like he's never seen before.  Actually, that's not true.  He's in exactly the kind of race he had 2002 when he narrowly defeated Jean Carnahan for this seat.  My sense is he will narrowly win this one, too, if not too much shadiness occurs in the precincts in and around St. Louis.  Right now though, Claire McCaskill is the projected leader, and the Democrats now own the upper chamber (projectedly, that is).

    Governors:  Even though Democrat Ted Kulongoski is polling a few points ahead of his GOP challenger, Ron Saxton, in Oregon.  His approval numbers are bad enough to make up for that advantage.  Election Projection now has Saxton up slightly in this race, one that may prove to be a good test for my formula this year.  Ditto the contest in Michigan where GOPer Dick DeVos moved just ahead of incumbent Jennifer Granholm this week.  Will bad approval numbers weigh down otherwise adequate head-to-head polling numbers on Election Day?  These two races may provide that answer.

    House:  Everyone thinks the GOP will lose the House.  So many, in fact, that I'm legitimately worried myself.  However, when I look at the polling data I've seen, the GOP has around 22 seats that are extremely vulnerable.  By that I mean the GOP candidate is currently polling even or behind the Democratic candidate.  In about a dozen or so others, the GOP candidate is slightly ahead.

    Does that place the GOP hold on the House in doubt?  Absolutely.  Does it mean a GOP majority next year is doubtful?  Absolutely not.  The key this election, as in so many in the recent past, will be the GOP get-out-the-vote machine.  And the key to that will be my GOP comrades' commitment to ignoring all the nay-sayers and doing what is needed to win.  Look for a longer post on this subject later.  For now, let this suffice.  Control of the House is certainly up for grabs.  I personally don't believe the Democrats can win the House, but the GOP can sure lose it.  The outcome is in our hands.

    The next update will be next Friday or Saturday, Oct. 13 or 14.  If you'd like access to these changes on a daily basis, as well as reams of great state-by-state election information, please consider signing up for an Election Projection's "Name Your Price" subscription.

    Projected Tally

  • Senate
          This week:  49 GOP, 49 DEM, 2 IND - DEM +5, GOP -6, IND +1
          Last week:  52 GOP, 46 DEM, 2 IND - DEM +2, GOP -3, IND +1
  • House
          This week:  220 GOP, 215 DEM, 0 IND - DEM +13, GOP -12, IND -1
          Last week:  221 GOP, 214 DEM, 0 IND - DEM +12, GOP -11, IND -1
  • Governorships
          This week:  24 GOP, 26 DEM - DEM +4, GOP -4
          Last week:  22 GOP, 28 DEM - DEM +6, GOP -6

    New Race Tracking

  • Florida - CD-13, CD-16
  • New York - CD-26
  • Ohio - CD-1

    Race Rating Changes

  • Monday
          Ohio Senate - Mod DEM Gain to Weak DEM Gain
          Tennessee Senate - Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain
          Maryland Governor - Mod DEM Gain to Weak DEM Gain
          Kentucky CD-3 - Weak GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold
  • Tuesday
          Florida CD-16 - not competitive to Weak DEM Gain
  • Wednesday
          Pennsylvania CD-10 - Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain
  • Thursday
          New Jersey Senate - Weak GOP Gain to Weak DEM Hold
          Ohio Senate - Weak DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain
          Oregon Governor - Weak DEM Hold to Weak GOP Gain
  • Friday
          Missouri Senate - Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain
          Nevada Senate - Mod GOP Hold to Strong GOP Hold
          Virginia Senate - Mod GOP Hold to Weak GOP Hold
          Maryland Governor - Weak DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain
          Florida CD-13 - possibly competitive to Weak GOP Hold
          New York CD-26 - not competitive to Weak GOP Hold
          North Carolina CD-11 - Weak DEM Gain to Weak GOP Hold
          Ohio CD-1 - possibly competitive to Weak GOP Hold

    posted by Scott Elliott at 11:30pm 10/08/06 ::
  • Update completed
    I've completed the projection update for this week.  It was the largest one yet in terms of the sheer volume of changes required.  I'm going to have to wait until I've had some sleep before writing the weekly update post.  For now, you'll have to discover the changes yourself.  Here's the list of state pages that have been updated since yesterday.

    State Page Updates

  • Arizona | California | Connecticut | Delaware | Florida | Hawaii | Illinois | Indiana | Kentucky | Maine | Maryland | Massachusetts | Michigan | Minnesota | Mississippi | Missouri | Montana | Nebraska | Nevada | New Jersey | New Mexico | New York | North Carolina | North Dakota | Ohio | Pennsylvania | Rhode Island | Tennessee | Texas | Utah | Vermont | Virginia | Washington | West Virginia | Wisconsin | Wyoming

    posted by Scott Elliott at 2:15am 10/08/06 ::
  • Friday, October 6, 2006
    Weekly update to be delayed
    Because of the conference I'm attending this weekend and the mountain of polling data released today, I'm going to have to delay posting the weekly update until sometime tomorrow.  In addition to all the recent polls, SurveyUSA released September's approval numbers for all the Senators last week, and I really need to get them incorporated into the projections.  For subscribers, this also means no state page updates until tomorrow.  The rating change alert emails will go out tomorrow as well.  By the way, if you're a subscriber, you know the upcoming weekly update will be loaded with changes.  (In fact, today's polls will add even more to the many changes we've seen so far this week.)

    posted by Scott Elliott at 5:20pm 10/06/06 ::
    Daily Poll Report
    Behavior Research Center
  • Arizona Governor:  Napolitano(D) 58%, Munsil(R) 24% (LV)

    Detroit News

  • Michigan Senate:  Stabenow(D) 48%, Bouchard(R) 35%
  • Michigan Governor:  Granholm(D) 46%, Devos(R) 40%

    Greenberg Quinlan (D)

  • New York CD-26:  Davis(D) 50%, Reynolds(R) 42%

    Hamilton Beattie (D)

  • Florida CD-13  Jennings(D) 50%, Buchanan(R) 38%

    OnPoint (D)

  • North Carolina CD-8:  Hayes(R) 47%, Kissell(D) 46%


  • Connecticut Governor:  Rell(R) 58%, DeStefano(D) 33%
  • Ohio Governor:  Strickland(D) 52%, Blackwell(R) 40%

    Research 2000

  • Wisconsin Governor:  Doyle(D) 48% Green(R) 42%

    Suffolk University

  • Massachusetts Governor:  Patrick(D) 49%, Healey(R) 28%, Mihos(I) 6%


  • New York CD-26:  Davis(D) 50%, Reynolds(R) 45%
  • Washington CD-2:  Larsen(D) 60%, Roulstone(R) 35%

    USA Today/Gallup

  • Maryland Senate:  Cardin(D) 54%, Steele(R) 39%
  • Maryland Governor:  O'Malley(D) 53%, Ehrlich(R) 41%
  • Missouri Senate:  McCaskill(D) 48%, Talent(R) 45%
  • New Jersey Senate:  Menendez(D) 46%, Kean(R) 43%
  • Rhode Island Senate:   Whitehouse(D) 50%, Chafee(R) 39%
  • Rhode Island Governor:  Carcieri(R) 47%, Fogarty(D) 46%
  • Tennessee Senate:  Ford(D) 50%, Corker(R) 45%
  • Tennessee Governor:  Bredesen(D) 66%, Bryson(R) 26%
  • Virginia Senate:  Allen(R) 48%, Webb(D) 45%

    State Page Updates
    List of updates included above.

    posted by Scott Elliott at 5:15pm 10/06/06 ::
  • I'm off to a bloggers' conference
    Later this afternoon, I'll be traveling across state to Greensboro, NC for the 2006 Carolina FreedomNet blogger conference.  It is open to the public, and you are invited to attend.  The John Locke Foundation is sponsoring the half-day event on Saturday, Oct. 7 which will feature several North Carolina bloggers and Scott Johnson of PowerLine as the keynote speaker.

    I will be a panelist in the second forum of the morning along with Townhall.com's Mary Katharine Ham, Jeff Taylor of Charlotte's The Meck Deck, and Durham's Josh Manchester of The Adventures of Chester.

    The first panel that morning will include Lorie Byrd of Wizbang, Greensboro's Sam Hieb of Sam's Notes, Charlotte's Sister Toldjah and Raleigh's Bob Owens of Confederate Yankee.

    If you're in the area please do come by and check it out.  I would love to meet you face to face.

    posted by Scott Elliott at 12:50am 10/06/06 ::
    Thursday, October 5, 2006
    Daily Poll Report
    American Viewpoint (R)
  • Connecticut CD-5:  Johnson(R) 52%, Murphy(D) 42%

    Westhill Consulting (D)

  • Connecticut CD-5:  Johnson(R) 42%, Murphy(D) 42% (w/leaners)

    Behavior Research Center

  • Arizona Senate:  Kyl(R) 45%, Pedersen(D) 36% (LV)

    The Dallas Morning News

  • Texas Governor:  Perry(R) 38%, Strayhorn(I) 18%, Bell(D) 15%, Friedman(I) 14%


  • New Jersey Senate:  Menendez(D) 46%, Kean(R) 39% (w/leaners)


  • New York Senate:  Clinton(D) 66%, Spencer(R) 31%

    Public Opinion Strategies (R)

  • Maryland Senate:  Cardin(D) 47%, Steele(R0 43%


  • Connecticut Senate:  Lieberman(I) 50%, Lamont(D) 40%, Schlesinger(R) 6%
  • Ohio Senate:  Brown(D) 49%, DeWine(R) 41%

    Riley Research

  • Oregon Governor:  Saxton(R) 39%, Kulongoski(D) 37%

    Strategic Vision

  • New Jersey Senate:  Kean(R) 46%, Menendez(D) 41%

    State Page Updates

  • Arizona | Connecticut | New Jersey | New York | Ohio | Oregon | Texas

    posted by Scott Elliott at 12:45pm 10/05/06 ::
  • Wednesday, October 4, 2006
    Daily Poll Report
    Albuquerque Journal
  • New Mexico Senate:  Bingaman(D) 65%, McCollough(R) 19%
  • New Mexico Governor:  Richardson(D) 60%, Dendahl(R) 28%

    Dan Jones

  • Utah Senate:  Hatch(R) 62%, Ashdown(D) 25%
  • Utah CD-1:  Bishop(R) 62%, Olsen(D) 20%
  • Utah CD-2:  Matheson(D) 60%, Christensen(R) 24%
  • Utah CD-3:  Cannon(R) 53%, Burridge(D) 26%

    Lycoming College

  • Pennsylvania CD-10:  Carney(D) 47, Sherwood(R) 38%

    Middle Tennessee State University

  • Tennessee Senate:  Corker(R) 43%, Ford(D) 42%
  • Tennessee Governor:  Bredesen(D) 59%, Bryson(R) 21%

    Policy Research Institute

  • California Governor:  Schwarzenegger(R) 46%, Angelides(D) 33%


  • New York Governor:  Spitzer(D) 73%, Faso(R) 21% (w/leaners)


  • Florida Senate:  Nelson(D) 54%, Harris(R) 37%
  • Florida Governor:  Crist(R) 54%, Davis(D) 38%
  • Massachusetts Governor:  Patrick(D) 57%, Healey(R) 24%, Mihos(I) 9%

    State Page Updates

  • California | Florida | Pennsylvania | Massachusetts | New Mexico | New York | Tennessee | Utah

    posted by Scott Elliott at 12:35pm 10/04/06 ::
  • Tuesday, October 3, 2006
    Daily Poll Report
    Constituent Dynamics
  • Florida CD-16:
          Mahoney(D) 49%, Foley(R) 46%
              - respondents informed that Foley votes will go to another GOP candidate.
          Mahoney(D) 50%, Foley(R) 43%
              - no explanation given

    The Field Poll

  • California Senate:  Feinstein(D) 57%, Mountjoy(R) 29%


  • Tennessee Governor:  Bredesen(D) 63%, Bryson(R) 22%
  • Montana CD-AL:  Rehberg(R) 53%, Lindeen(D) 33%

    Opinion Research

  • Arkansas Governor:  Beebe(D) 53%, Hutchinson(R) 35%


  • Tennessee Governor:  Bredesen(D) 63%, Bryson(R) 28%

    University of Connecticut

  • Connecticut CD-4:  Shays(R) 44%, Farrell(D) 40%

    State Page Updates

  • Arkansas | California | Connecticut | Florida | Tennessee

    posted by Scott Elliott at 1:10pm 10/03/06 ::
  • Monday, October 2, 2006
    Daily Poll Report
    Albuquerque Journal
  • New Mexico CD-1:  Wilson(R) 44%, Madrid(D) 44%

    Los Angeles Times

  • California Senate:  Feinstein(D) 54%, Mountjoy(R) 36%
  • California Governor:  Schwarzenegger(R) 50%, Angelides(D) 33%


  • California Senate:  Feinstein(D) 53%, Mountjoy(R) 23%
  • California Governor:  Schwarzenegger(R) 49%, Angelides(D) 36%
  • Florida Senate:  Nelson(D) 53%, Harris(R) 35%
  • Maryland Senate:  Cardin(D) 47%, Steele(R0 41%
  • Maryland Governor:  O'Malley(D) 47%, Ehrlich(R) 43%
  • Missouri Senate:  Talent(R) 43%, McCaskill(D) 43%
  • Montana Senate:  Tester(D) 47%, Burns(R) 40%
  • New Jersey Senate:  Menendez(D) 44%, Kean(R) 41%
  • Ohio Senate:  Brown(D) 45%, DeWine(R) 43%
  • Ohio Governor:  Strickland(D) 53%, Blackwell(R) 36%
  • Pennsylvania Senate:  Casey(D) 49%, Santorum(R) 40%
  • Pennsylvania Governor:  Rendell(D) 54%, Swann(R) 37%
  • Rhode Island Senate:  Whitehouse(D) 42%, Chafee(R) 41%
  • Rhode Island Governor:  Carcieri(R) 50%, Fogarty(D) 34%
  • Tennessee Senate:  Ford(D) 43%, Corker(R) 42%
  • Virginia Senate:  Allen(R) 43%, Webb(D) 43%
  • Washington Senate:  Cantwell(D) 50%, McGavick(R) 40%


  • Oregon Governor:  Kulongoski(D) 47%, Saxton(R) 42%
  • Tennessee Senate:  Ford(D) 48%, Corker(R) 43%
  • Virginia Senate:  Allen(R) 49%, Webb(D) 43%


  • Kentucky CD-3:  Northup(R) 50%, Yarmuth(D) 44%
  • Ohio CD-6:  Wilson(D) 54%, Blasdel(R) 41%
  • Virginia Senate:  Allen(R) 50%, Webb(D) 44%

    State Page Updates

  • California | Florida | Kentucky | Maryland | Missouri | Montana | New Jersey | New Mexico | Ohio | Oregon | Pennsylvania | Rhode Island | Tennessee | Virginia | Washington

    posted by Scott Elliott at 1:10pm 10/02/06 ::
  •     Read more:  September, 2006Politics and Elections Home    

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