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  Politics and Elections
Sunday, October 29, 2006
Weekly Projection Update
As the finish line draws closer, so does the projected control of the House of Representatives.  Two week's ago, the Democrats moved in front of the GOP in the battle for the House.  That update showed the GOP holding only 213 seats, nine less than the Democrats' projected count of 222 that week.  Subscribers know that in the days following, the GOP total briefly fell to 212.  That appears to have been the low water mark for the Republicans.  By last week's update, the GOP had regained that extra seat and came in once again at 213 seats.

This week, even as some pundits are expecting a large tidal wave to sweep out dozens of congressional Republicans, the GOP has managed to pull ahead in three races previously projected to go the Democrats.  As a result, the tally in the House now stands at 219-216, with the Democrats still holding control.  I'm preparing a more in-depth look at the most closely-fought races so you can know what to look for on Election Night for signs of the size and strength of the alleged tidal wave.  Look for that in the next couple days.

On the Senate side, the polls this week have shown an up tick for the GOP, though several races are still unnervingly close.  Jim Talent, amid a big brouhaha over the recent Michael J. Fox TV ads, has eked out a very small lead in Missouri over Claire McCaskill.  That's a change from last week and results in a projected clear majority (albeit tiny) for the GOP in the Senate.

At 51-49 and with the races in Virginia, Missouri, and Tennessee still up for grabs, that majority is by no means a sure bet.  However, recent indicators have moved Montana and Maryland into the toss-up category as well, bolstering their prospects of keeping control of the upper chamber.  (In case you're wondering, I do not include New Jersey on purpose.)

One clear area of advancement for Democrats is in the battle for governorships.  They've held the projected lead in this category practically all season long and add two more to their total this week.  In Oregon, Ted Kulongoski has overtaken Ron Saxton - once again - to gain a projected hold for the Democrats there.

Meanwhile, GOPer Tim Pawlenty's approval numbers plummeted this month and polls have shown him in a dead-heat or slightly behind his Democratic challenger, Mike Hatch.  This two switchers move the gubernatorial tally to 29-21 in favor of the Democrats.  This represents a large seven statehouse gain from the current totals.

The next update will be the last.  I will probably post it some time in the wee hours next Tuesday morning.  That's Election Day, the culmination of everything we've been about here at Election Projection - 2006 Edition.  And an exciting one it is sure to be.  By the way, there's still time to "Name Your Price" and sign up for EP's Premium Content.  To find out how, click here.  I'm contemplating some things I think you'll find interesting for Election Night.  Be sure not to miss it!

Projected Tally

  • Senate
          This week:  51 GOP, 47 DEM, 2 IND - DEM +3, GOP -4, IND +1
          Last week:  50 GOP, 48 DEM, 2 IND - DEM +4, GOP -5, IND +1
  • House
          This week:  216 GOP, 219 DEM, 0 IND - DEM +17, GOP -16, IND -1
          Last week:  213 GOP, 222 DEM, 0 IND - DEM +20, GOP -19, IND -1
  • Governorships
          This week:  21 GOP, 29 DEM - DEM +7, GOP -7
          Last week:  23 GOP, 27 DEM - DEM +5, GOP -5

    New Race Tracking

  • None

    Race Rating Changes

  • Monday
          Illinois CD-8 - Weak DEM Hold to Mod DEM Hold
          Maine Governor - Mod DEM Hold to Weak DEM Hold
          Minnesota Governor - Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain
          South Carolina Governor - Strong GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold
          Wisconsin Governor - Mod DEM Hold to Weak DEM Hold
  • Tuesday
          Arizona CD-5 - Weak GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold
  • Wednesday
          Minnesota Governor - Weak DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain
          Missouri Senate - Weak DEM Gain to Weak GOP Hold
  • Thursday
          Minnesota CD-6 - Weak DEM Gain to Weak GOP Hold
          Oregon Governor - Weak GOP Gain to Mod DEM Hold
  • Friday
          Maine Governor - Weak DEM Hold to Mod DEM Hold
          Maryland Senate - Mod DEM Hold to Weak DEM Hold
          Minnesota Governor - Mod DEM Gain to Weak DEM Gain
          Nevada Senate - Strong GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold
          New York CD-26 - Weak DEM Gain to Weak GOP Hold
          Pennsylvania CD-6 - Weak DEM Gain to Weak GOP Hold
          South Carolina Governor - Mod GOP Hold to Strong GOP Hold

    posted by Scott Elliott at 5:05pm 10/29/06 ::
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