Upcoming schedule:  In addition to announcing the special update tomorrow, I thought I'd give a rundown of my plans for Election Projection through Election Day.  On Monday morning, I'll post the usual Election Projection Weekly Update.  Then on Tuesday morning - probably in the wee hours - I'll post the final Election Projection for 2008.  I also plan to include a summary of predictions from other sites like mine.  On Tuesday afternoon, I'll begin live-blogging the election.  That should run well into the wee hours of Wednesday morning.  I hope you'll join me here for all the excitement as time finally unveils what we've all been looking toward for these last many moons.

Update:  The House race updates are now posted.  Further erosion of GOP influence on Capitol Hill indicated.

State page updates:  The following state pages have been updated today. Alabama, Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming.

Many Americans, moderates in particular, fear one party having too much control in Washington.  As they look at the prospect of near unbridled Democratic power, they may gravitate to some degree to the Republican in some of these close Senate and House races.  It probably won't amount to a large-scale desertion, but it could be enough to reduce Republican losses by a seat or two here and there.

Early voting:  Already a good proportion of voters has cast their votes across the nation.  Preliminary reports indicate very high numbers of Democrats turning out.  The data released do not measure actual votes, mind you, just the party affiliation of the early participants.  Nevertheless, since Republicans normally outvote Democrats before Election Day, the numbers bode well for Barack Obama and other Democratic candidates.  To follow the progress of early voting, check out the Early Voting Information Center, an extension of the Pew Research Center.  I stumbled across the site today and will be making it a daily stop over the remaining days of the campaign.

State page updates:  All fifty state pages have been updated today.

Eight days from Election Day, here is this blogger's conclusion:  Barack Obama will win this election in a landslide.  He will capture at least 350 electoral votes and win the popular vote by 7% or more.  McCain may benefit from some measure of the Bradley Effect, but that advantage will be overwhelmed by African-American turnout, Palin-induced defections by moderates, and under-funded, unenthusiastic GOP get-out-the-vote efforts.  This week's update shows Obama with a 375-163 electoral vote edge.  The actual result may be a tad closer, but I'd be less surprised if his victory surpassed even that landslide tally.

Senate:  Three weeks in a row now the projected make-up of the Senate has stood at 57 Democrats, 41 Republicans and 2 Independents.  All eight of the projected Democratic takeovers in the Senate remain probable as of this update.  Alaska Senator Ted Stevens' conviction undermines his re-election bid - but, ironically, does not completely derail it.  Even as a convicted felon, Stevens can continue his campaign and be elected, should Alaskans choose to send him back to Washington.  Let me add parenthetically that I could not vote for Stevens and, frankly, I hope he loses.

Governors:  GOPer Pat McCrory's bid to succeed outgoing North Carolina Democratic Governor Mike Easley is looking stronger as we near Election Day.  He has moved back in the lead over Democrat Beverly Perdue.  I believe he will win.  It also looks as though he will be the only Republican to take a Democrat-held office in a statewide race this year.

House:  The blue wave of 2006 may be matched by the blue wave of 2008.  (Note to my fellow conservatives out there:  I know, I know - I hate reporting all this bad news as much as you hate reading it!)  As a result of over seventy pundit rating changes which I incorporated into the House projections over the weekend, the size of the blue wave this year has grown considerably.  No less than seven additional GOP seats find themselves in the Democratic column in this week's House update.  They are Florida CD-8, Michigan CD-9, Minnesota CD-6, New Jersey CD-3, New Mexico CD-2, Ohio CD-1 and Washington CD-8.  These seven newcomers push the projected Democratic haul in the House to 25 seats.  Three GOP takeovers reduce the net gain to 22.  Overall, the Democrats are projected this week to enjoy an amazing 81-seat advantage (257-176) in the House come January.

The list of hotly-contested House races here at Election Projection has also swelled by one this week.  Six additional districts have moved into the competitive category, replacing five previously competitive seats which are no longer deemed at risk.  The new vulnerable districts - all Republican - are Arizona CD-3, California CD-50, Indiana CD-3, Minnesota CD-6, Nebraska CD-2 and South Carolina CD-1.  Races dropping off this week are Indiana CD-9, Kansas CD-3, Minnesota CD-1, Oregon CD-5 and Pennsylvania CD-6 (the lone Republican seat in the list).

Election Projection Premium Content: We are just one week away from the election.  Response to Election Projection's Name Your Price subscription program has been very good.  I am grateful to the 1182 folks who have generously signed up.  However, I need your help to eclipse the 1276 subscribers who joined in 2006.  If you haven't subscribed yet, please consider doing so.  Even if you have only $5, $10 or $20 you can send, that would be wonderful.

By the way, this will be the last time this election cycle that I will make a plea for subscriptions.  I truly appreciate all of you who have followed the races here at Election Projection - 2008 Edition.  I know you have many other options out there.  I also appreciate you putting up with my frequent requests for subscribers.  If you would like to help me reach my goal of 1277, please click here to "Name Your Price".  If you not sure about it, you can click here to read what many satisfied subscribers have said about Election Projection Premium Content.

Program note:  Due to the lateness of this post, I will not be posting a Daily Dispatch tomorrow.  I will, however, be posting a Daily Poll Report and updating the premium pages with the new numbers in the morning.

State page updates:  The following states have been updated today: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming.

Amazing outlier:  SurveyUSA has been pretty solid when it comes to producing accurate polls.  However, they are not immune to the occasional outlier.  Take the latest poll from Illinois for example.  The results of the poll give Barack Obama a small 5-point advantage in his home state.  By contrast, Illinois went for John Kerry by 11 in 2004 and Al Gore by 12 in 2000.  To put the magnitude of this outlier into proportion, they released a concurrent finding from neighboring deeply red Indiana which reports a 4-point Obama lead.  These findings serve to highlight just how inexact polling can be.  According to SurveyUSA this week, two states that differed by over 30 points four years ago are just one point apart this year.  Now that's an outlier!  (I fully expect SurveyUSA to perform just fine overall once the ballots have been counted, and their next poll out of Illinois will no doubt be more in line with the consensus.  Nevertheless, what an interesting and revealing anomaly.)

Update:  Several readers have pointed out that the SurveyUSA poll out of Illinois mentioned above actually reports voter sentiments in Illinois CD-11, not statewide.  So that effectively renders my amazing outlier analysis null and void!  Oops.

State page updates:  The following states have been updated this morning: Alabama, California, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Texas, West Virginia, Wisconsin.

Honestly, I'm still trying to figure out how this election will turn out.  On the one hand, I'm worried that my projections will be off in states like North Dakota, Indiana and Georgia due to the new vote.  On the other, Governor Rendell of Pennsylvania is sending memos to Obama asking him to come to there to campaign.  The Keystone state is a prime candidate for the Bradley effect to be in full force.

As I've said on several occasions during this election season, we just don't know how well the polls are measuring new voters who don't have a voting history and old voters who say they'll vote for Obama.  One thing's for sure - in just 12 days, we'll know the answer.

State page updates:  The following states have been updated this morning: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin.

State page updates:  The following states have been updated this morning: Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Washington, West Virginia and Wyoming.

State page updates:  The following states have been updated this morning: Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Kentucky, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, New Hampshire, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

Senate:  Not much movement this week in the Senate projections.  The Democrats maintain a 57-41 advantage, and the possibility of an even more lopsided count exists.  Georgia, Kentucky and the special senate election in Mississippi remain narrowly in the GOP column this week.

Governors:  No significant changes among the eleven gubernatorial races to report this week.  This lot of races boils down to this.  The Democrats will pick up a governorship in Missouri, and the GOP will contest mightily for two others - North Carolina and Washington - though they are currently behind by a hair in both.  The rest of the races shows the incumbents unthreatened.

House:  This week, I've updated the pundit predictions for several dozen races.  There were a boatload of rating changes among the four pundits I use to project races in the House.  Those changes in turn affected my projections quite a bit.  Most of the impact favored the Democrats.  Since last week, 4 more seats have moved into the Democratic takeover category: CT-4, FL-24, NV-3, PA-3.  Democrats also recovered AL-5 which had been a projected GOP takeover.  The GOP claimed two Democratic seats this week.  Both of them, FL-16 and PA-11, feature Democratic incumbents who have been damaged by scandal.  The net result of all this movement is a 3-seat increase for the blue team which is now projected to hold a whopping 67-seat advantage in the lower chamber come next January.

State page updates:  Thirty state pages have been updated this morning.

State page updates:  The following state pages have been updated this morning:  Connecticut, Georgia, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Missouri, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Virginia,

Sarah Palin:  John McCain's pick as running mate did not fare so well in her readiness test.  No, I'm not talking about the vice-presidential debate; she did fine there.  I'm referring to her interview with Katie Curic.  In hindsight, McCain's slow and steady collapse in the polls began after that interview.  Palin was a risky pick that could have been a home run for him if Palin had aced that test.  Instead, her rambling answers - famously imitated by SNL's Tina Fey - made her seem anything but ready for the office of the vice-president and cast doubt on the whole ticket.  McCain has suffered ever since.  In my opinion, that interview was the turning point in this election.  Had Palin performed in such a way as to give the American people confidence in her as VP, we would have a much closer race right now.

State page updates:  The following state pages have been updated this morning:  Alabama, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Kansas, Massachusetts, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington and West Virginia.

Recently, Gallup has begun publishing three separate polling metrics as part of their daily election tracking.  One consists of registered voters.  The second consists of traditional likely voters and incorporates voting history.  Those are the normal polling categories.  The third is the new category, "expanded likely voters."  This class of poll uses a likely voter model that omits voting history and concentrates solely on voting intentions.  As an indication of the impact of the new vote, Obama's lead swells when voting history is not factored in.  Using the traditional likely voter model, Obama has a 6-point lead over McCain in the latest Gallup tracking poll.  The lead is ten with the expanded model.

Poll position:  Guess what?  Barack Obama's projected popular vote advantage has reached yet another high this morning.  It seems like I report that every morning here lately.  I'm beginning to sound like a broken record.  Click here to see if his popular vote fortunes have affected the projected electoral vote tally.

State page updates:  The following state pages have been updated this morning:  Colorado, Delaware, Idaho, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, North Carolina, North Dakota, South Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin.

If you are new to Election Projection or just haven't dived in yet, let me encourage you to take advantage of Election Projection's one-of-a-kind "Name Your Price" subscription program.  Click here for information on all the great features you'll get when you sign up.  And if your not sure about it, why don't you check out what satisfied subscribers are saying about the program.  Hey, if it's good enough for one thousand of your fellow political junkies, maybe you should check it out, too!

Poll position:  In this morning's daily update, Barack Obama has moved out to his largest popular vote advantage since I began tracking the election back in early June.  Individual national polls range somewhat as to the size of his lead, but every poll out over the last couple of days has him at least 4 points ahead - and multiple surveys give him a double-digit lead.

In this difficult season for the party in the White House, I think it is interesting to point out a pertinent fact.  George W. Bush won the popular vote in 2004 by about 2.5% over John Kerry.  Right now, a reasonable average of national polls gives Barack Obama something close to a 7.5% lead over John McCain.  Though that seems like a major shift in the electorate, it actually represents only a five percent switch.  To put it in more understandable terms, all it takes for Bush's 2.5% victory in 2004 to turn into a landslide 7.5% McCain defeat in 2008 is for just one Bush voter in 20 to change his or her vote.  Granted, this example doesn't factor in turnout and new voter registration, but it's an intriguing concept, nonetheless.  Let me hasten to add here that my intention in highlighting this phenomenon is not to minimize the backlash against a Republican in the White House, but to illustrate just how much a relatively small effective change in public sentiment can drastically impact the outcome of a presidential election.

Update:  Several readers have emailed about the illustration above.  Their notes have necessitated a response here.  Two points have been raised about the post, one somewhat valid, the other not.  First, in the illustration I assert that only one in twenty would need to change parties to produce the dramatic shift we're seeing in the polls.  That is true.  However, this change does actually represent one in ten Bush supporters in 2004.  Still no huge number, but a bit more significant when described as such. 

Second, some have claimed my math is off.  They say a 2.5% advantage requires a 10% shift to produce a 7.5% deficit.  While it is true that 2.5 + 7.5 = 10, that doesn't reflect the actual change in votes.  Look at it this way:  You and a friend both have 10 dollars.  If you give your friend a dollar, then you have 9 and he has 11.  He now has two more than you even though you only gave him one.  So, to produce a 10 percent change from 2004 to 2008, only 5 percent of the electorate (and yes, that is 10 percent of Bush voters) would need to change their votes to Obama.

State page updates:  The following state pages have been updated this morning:  Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Maryland, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Virginia.

Weekly Election Projection Update: 

President:  On Thursday last week, I asked the question, "Is it over?"  Today the answer appears more than ever to be an emphatic yes.  I told subscribers in an Email Alert last week that I thought we'd reached a lower bound of electoral votes for John McCain at 174.  Wouldn't you know it?  A day later, ARG released a poll of West Virginia voters giving Barack Obama an 8-point lead there.  The result of the poll pushed Obama into the projected lead and pushed John McCain's floor down another 5 EVs.  Today, the new presidential tally stands at 369-169 for the increasingly-likely President-elect Barack Obama.

Yes, I know, last week I also conveyed the idea that just about any outcome in this race was still possible.  Honestly, though, an Obama landslide is becoming more and more likely by the day.  Let's take stock for a moment where we stand.  Seven states representing 96 electoral votes are in the "Weak Obama" category this morning.  All were Bush states in 2004.  Even if McCain were to somehow win every one of those seven states, he'd still come up short, 265-274.  To win the presidency, he'd have to add another state.  But the prospects are virtually non-existent.  Obama's lead in the rest of the states in his column is at least 5 points.  And as an indication of just how strong Obama's advantage is right now, all but two Kerry states in 2004 are projected to stay with the Democrats by double-digits.  The other two, Wisconsin and Minnesota, show Obama ahead by nine.

Senate:  The gloom for the GOP is not confined to the presidential race.  Indeed the most eyebrow-raising outcome of this election may come from the Senate.  Early on, the GOP sought to minimize losses in a difficult political environment.  Now, the pressing question is whether or not they can head-off a filibuster-proof Senate.  This morning, the Democrats hold a huge 59-41 advantage, counting two independent senators who caucus with the Democrats, and at least three more GOP seats are looking more and more vulnerable.

Three weeks out, I see the Democrats picking up a minimum of four seats - CO, NH, NM, VA.  Four more look like toss-ups - AK, MN, NC, OR.  Still others are vulnerable if the Democrats can get their vote out - GA, KY and MS (special).  That's eleven seats in play.  A filibuster-proof Senate is the prize if the Democrats can win nine of those eleven.

Governors:  A month ago, Republicans could look at the balance of power in governorships as a bright spot.  However, over the last two weeks, both their projected pickups - North Carolina and Washington - have returned to the Democratic column.  I still believe either may be GOP-held come next year.  In fact, if I had to predict right now I'd point to a Pat McCrory victory in my home state of North Carolina.  On the Democratic side, the race in Missouri continues to project as an easy takeover for them.

House:  A significant decrease in GOP influence in the House is in store if Election Projection's current numbers hold true.  The host of projected losses numbers a full dozen this morning.  This week's update sees a net of two more House seats switch to the Democrats, bringing the projected count to 248-187.  If current trends hold, that number could rise before Election Day.  One of the big questions after the blue wave election of 2006 was whether backlash against Republicans would continue into 2008.  Signs increasingly show that the 2008 version of the big blue wave is just as strong - if not stronger - than its predecessor.

State page updates:  The following state pages have been updated this morning:  Alabama, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Virginia, Washington and West Virginia.

Moving to national poll numbers we find more uncertainty.  Gallup's tracking poll has consistently shown Obama with a double-digit lead most of the past week.  Yet, three other tracking polls are moving in McCain's direction and show this race to be within the margin of error.  What gives!  All this just highlights the uncharted electoral territory in which we find ourselves.  If you've read my recent posts, you know I believe this is Obama's race to lose and that McCain has a very difficult challenge to change that outlook.  With all the conflicting reports and data out there, though, I'll be the first to admit anything could still happen.  We could see a solid McCain victory or an Obama landslide of historic proportions - or anything in between.  With just a little more than three weeks left, this has to be the most difficult election to gauge in my lifetime.

Welcome 538ers:  I took an advertisement out on fivethirtyeight.com Monday so you may be one of the many who are clicking through to Election Projection.  First off, let me offer you a hearty "welcome!"  I hope you'll spend some time here exploring all the features EP has to offer.  And please take note of the "Name Your Price" subscription program in the main page's right sidebar.  I'm providing this unique opportunity to help make publishing this website worth the long hours I put into it.  After you look around, please consider signing up.  You'll get some of the most comprehensive election coverage on the net, and you'll be helping The Blogging Caesar out at the same time.  Thanks!  "Name Your Price!"  No catch.  No kidding.

State page updates:  The following state pages have been updated this morning:  Alaska, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia and West Virginia.

Overcoming the current circumstances of a slowing economy, an unpopular war and an even more unpopular president would be a difficult challenge even a Republican nominee with well-honed political skills and Obama-esque articulation.  For John McCain, who falls well short on both accounts, this is a near insurmountable task.  Something may yet happen to propel him to victory, but it is hard for me to envision it.  I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but, hey, I call it like I see it.

Welcome 538ers:  I took an advertisement out on fivethirtyeight.com Monday so you may be one of the many who are clicking through to Election Projection.  First off, let me offer you a hearty "welcome!"  I hope you'll spend some time here exploring all the features EP has to offer.  And please take note of the "Name Your Price" subscription program in the right.  I'm providing this unique opportunity to help make publishing this website worth the long hours I put into it.  After you look around, please consider signing up.  You'll get some of the most comprehensive election coverage on the net, and you'll be helping The Blogging Caesar out at the same time.  Thanks!

State page updates:  The following state pages have been updated this morning:  Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Welcome 538ers:  I took an advertisement out on fivethirtyeight.com Monday so you may be one of the many who are clicking through to Election Projection.  First off, let me offer you a hearty "welcome!"  I hope you'll spend some time here exploring all the features EP has to offer.  And please take note of the "Name Your Price" subscription program in the right.  I'm providing this unique opportunity to help make publishing this website worth the long hours I put into it.  After you look around, please consider signing up.  You'll get some of the most comprehensive election coverage on the net, and you'll be helping The Blogging Caesar out at the same time.  Thanks!

Poll position:  For the second day in a row, McCain gains a bit in the projected popular vote.  Has it made any difference in the Electoral College?  Please pardon the tease, but subscribers know!  In other races, especially in the House, there has been significant movement in terms of party switchers.  By the way, there are a boatload of polls in today's Daily Poll Report, many of them involving House races.  Be sure to check it out.

State page updates:  The following state pages have been updated this morning:  Alaska, California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin.

Welcome 538ers:  I took an advertisement out on fivethirtyeight.com yesterday so you may be one of the many who are clicking through to Election Projection.  First off, let me offer you a hearty "welcome!"  I hope you'll spend some time here exploring all the features EP has to offer.  And please take note of the "Name Your Price" subscription program in the right.  I'm providing this unique opportunity to help make publishing this website worth the long hours I put into it.  After you look around, please consider signing up.  You'll get some of the most comprehensive election coverage on the net, and you'll be helping The Blogging Caesar out at the same time.  Thanks!

Poll position:  The numbers are starting to stabilize now.  Too bad for McCain, the new equilibrium puts him far behind Obama.  While the projected popular vote total moved a tad in McCain's direction, it was only enough to stop the electoral vote bleeding.  However, that doesn't mean the GOP's woes across the board have leveled off.  In today's Daily Email Alert, yet another race flips from red to blue.

State page updates:  The following state pages have been updated this morning:  Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Maine, Minnesota, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia.

All in all, McCain lost a projected six states this week worth a staggering 91 electoral votes.  His EV deficit ballooned from eight to 190 as he now trails Obama 364-174.  Possibly the best news surrounding this week's major shift for the Obama camp is that there's nothing obvious on the horizon which presents McCain with an opportunity to substantially alter the playing field.  If there is a ray of hope, it is in the fact that seven states are within 5 points right now.  These "Weak Obama Gains" represent enough electoral votes to give McCain the presidency were they to find their way back into his camp.

Therein lies the dilemma.  There is no margin for error.  As it stands now, McCain will have to run the table and win all seven of these battleground states - which he currently trails.  That's a very tall order.  This race is not over, but it must be nice to be sitting in Obama's position this morning.

Senate:  The projected Senate makeup remains at 56-42 in favor of the Democrats this week.  That's seven projected pickups for the Democrats, and there could be more.  Three additional GOP Senate seats, Georgia, Minnesota and Mississippi (special), are rated as "Weak GOP Holds."  I'm not too worried about Saxby Chambliss seat in Georgia, but the other two will be close.  Of the current pickups, North Carolina and Oregon are the two most likely to remain with the Republicans.

Governors:  After enjoying a slight advantage in gubernatorial pickups for the last three weeks, the GOP settles back into a 1-1 tie this week.  Washington's blockbuster race between Democrat incumbent Christine Gregoire and Republican challenger Dino Rossi has moved back to the incumbent by a single percentage point.  This race will be close all the way.  Now that Washington is back to blue, North Carolina's race for the statehouse remains the only projected GOP takeover among the 160+ races I'm tracking here at Election Projection.
Correction:  The GOP is projected to pick up two House seats, one in Texas and one in Alabama.

House:  Speaking of North Carolina, the only party-switcher in this week's House projection is Robin Hayes' GOP seat in NC-8.  Democrat Larry Kissell, who came within a couple hundreds votes of unseating Hayes in 2006, has moved out in front in their 2008 rematch.  With this change, the projected House makeup is back to 246-189, a 57-seat Democratic majority.

NOTE:  This week I added four House races to the list of hotly-contested races I'm tracking and removed one.  California CD-4, Florida CD-8, Kentucky CD-2, Maryland CD-1 were added; Virginia CD-4 was removed.  All five seats are currently held by Republicans.  These changes bring the total number of House races I'm tracking to 66.

State page updates:  The following state pages have been updated this morning:  Alabama, Alaska, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Idaho, Illinois, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington and West Virginia.

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Poll position:  Speaking of today's update, Obama is in new territory again today in terms of the projected popular vote.  This race is looking a lot like it did at the height of his summertime surge.  With only a little more than four weeks away, he is definitely in the driver's seat.

Free preview weekend:  Tonight I will be opening up Election Projection Premium Content for a weekend of free access.  You'll have a chance to browse all the great information subscribers can take advantage of 24/7.  Please make sure to come back often this weekend to check it out.

State page updates:  The following state pages have been updated this morning:  Colorado, Idaho, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, New Mexico, Nebraska, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia.

Gwen Ifill has written a book which focuses on African-Americans who are 'forging a bold new path to political power'.  It is due out - conveniently - on Inauguration Day, 2009.  I find it too much to expect someone who stands to gain a great measure more economically from an Obama victory to preside without bias over a debate featuring his running mate.  Seems like a stark conflict of interests there to me.

Poll positions:  National polls and state polls are still moving Obama's way.  He has made significant gains this week in the daily updates in Election Projection's Premium Content.  The financial crisis all over the news this week is benefiting Obama quite a bit, which is no small irony considering how we got into this mess.  This biggest news story in all this might just be the journalistic deception that has surrounded coverage of this crisis by the main stream media.  So effective has the illusion been that 54% of Americans in a recent poll blame Republicans for this crisis and only 25% blame the Democrats.  It must be nice playing with home-field advantage all the time.

State page updates:  The following state pages have been updated this morning:  Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin.

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Obama's lead:  Speaking of Election Projection Premium Content, today's polls give Obama a new high in terms of his projected popular vote share.  So much for McCain's convention bounce!  McCain needs something to shake things up for he will not survive "steady as she goes" from here to Election Day.  There is still time for him to turn things around, but I think he will need to be more aggressive in areas where he can gain ground.  This financial crisis is one such area.

He was, in fact, one who saw it coming and even co-sponsored legislation back in 2005 which might have averted it.  But so far, he has been reluctant to point this out.  Neither has he highlighted that his bill eventually died because of straight party-line opposition by the Democrats in the Senate.  In a posture of "bi-partisanship" which is costing him in the polls, McCain is once again in familiar territory - irritating his GOP base.

State page updates:  The following state pages have been updated this morning:  Arizona, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Michigan, Nevada, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia.