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| - October, 2009 |
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| Tuesday, October 27, 2009 |
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| Election Projection's 2009 predictions |
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I know we are still a week away from Election Day, 2009, but I feel confident that the outcomes of the two statehouse races and one special congressional race are already
predictable. Since I don't expect to need to update my predictions between now and then, why not get on the record early? Without further ado then, here is the official
Election Projection - 2009 Edition:
| Election Projection - 2009 Edition |
| Governor's Races |
Candidates |
Projected Pct. |
Projected Winner |
| New Jersey |
Jon Corzine-inc (D)
Chris Christie (R)
Chris Daggett (I) |
50%
45%
5%
|
DEM
+5% |
Virginia
Republican takeover |
Creigh Deeds
Bob McDonnell |
45%
55% |
GOP
+10% |
| |
| Special House Race |
Candidates |
Projected Pct. |
Projected Winner |
New York CD-23
Conservative takeover |
Dede Scozzafava (R)
Bill Owens (D)
Doug Hoffman (C) |
16%
40%
44% |
CON
+4%
|
| Incumbent party candidate listed first |
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These are not formula-based as my customary projections are. They are simply my predictions based on what I believe are the forces at work in these races. Specifically, Deed's
campaign-crippling tax-raising editorial in the Washington
Post, New Jersey's disingenuous flirtations with GOP candidates, and
the frenzy of social conservatives in upstate New York.
Filed under:
Governors - 2009
New Jersey - 2009
NJ Governor - 2009
Virginia - 2009
VA Governor - 2009
posted by Scott Elliott at 8:06pm 10/27/09::
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| Tuesday, October 20, 2009 |
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| It doesn't matter what's in it |
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Today I received an email from the American Family Association trumpeting the AP's "admission" that abortion will be paid for by your tax dollars if Obamacare becomes the law of the land.
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As even the Associated Press admits, the government takeover of health care will, despite what the president has told you, involve the use of taxpayer funds to pay for abortions.
The AP says flatly, "The proposed legislation would permit government-sponsored health plans, open to non-Medicaid patients, to cover abortions."
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I am as pro-life as you can get. I hate abortion and the moral blindness which somehow rationalizes it. But I reacted to this email with a mostly-disinterested shrug. It's the same shrug that comes whenever I hear about the ridiculous deficits, enormous tax increases and rationed care that may or may not result from Obamacare.
Be careful not to interpret my reactions as apathy about the issue of healthcare and its socialization in America, however. I care very deeply about it. I care very deeply about the disastrous long term effects that it will inevitably bring. What doesn't matter to me so much is what Obamacare looks like now. It's really not that important how bad it is or how much it costs. Want to know why? I'll tell you why.
It's because I'm much more concerned about Obamacare II and Obamacare III - and "Future-Liberal-Democratic-Presidentcare IV-XII." If abortion is not covered by Obamacare, it will be in the future. If available care is not rationed right off, it will be someday. If it doesn't bankrupt us now, it eventually will. If you doubt me on this, just take a look at the track record of such government interventions as the income tax and Social Security, OSHA and the EPA. The creators of these institutions would hardly recognize them today. From acorns in past generations, they are mighty, unshakable oaks now. And if it is passed, Obamacare will be another oak someday. Whether it is an acorn, a sapling or full-grown in it's first incarnation matters little.
In my view, the only way to stop Obamacare from becoming everything the AFA fears is to keep it from being planted - to keep it from becoming law in the first place. That'll be a monstrous task, I'm afraid, with the current batch of liberals dominating Washington. But we cannot allow the difficulty of the task to keep us from it. There is just too much at stake. We must be vocal and active - not about what the current legislation may or may not contain, but what it will mean to offer control of healthcare to the federal government. For as government has demonstrated so often in the past, once it gets its teeth into something, it devours it whole.
Filed under:
Healthcare
posted by Scott Elliott at 8:41pm 10/20/09::
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| Sunday, October 18, 2009 |
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| Echos of '06 and '08 temper GOP outlook |
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There is a very good article in today's Washington Post which looks at the
prospect of large GOP gains across the board next year. With the economy still floundering, unemployment cruising along near 10% and disillusionment about healthcare and
Afghanistan on the rise, the minority party should be poised to realize substantial electoral benefits in the next election. Indeed some have peered into to the future and see visions
of 1994, the year Republicans won a staggering 57 seats in the House on the way to breaking a 40-year Democratic majority. But, as the article points out, the electorate did not have
a bad Republican aftertaste back in '94 as it does today. Newt Gingrich, former House Speaker and leader of the '94 Republican Revolution, describes the difference well.
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"People are more frightened than they were in '93 and '94 - both by the radicalism of the administration and by the economy," Gingrich said. But he added: "They're more skeptical of
Republicans than they were in '93 and '94. The aftereffect of '06 and '08 is there's not a rush to Republicans."
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If the forces working against Democrats stay in effect - or worsen - and the GOP can recover from its current reputation problem, we could be in for a major power shift come January,
2011. On the other hand, if the economy and Afghanistan improve, employment rebounds and people still aren't comfortable with the GOP, Election 2010, despite the rosy visions of
some GOP fans, may turn out to be a wash.
Filed under:
2010 Elections
posted by Scott Elliott at 10:04pm 10/18/09::
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| Monday, October 12, 2009 |
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| NV Senate: Harry Reid is in trouble |
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Nevada Senator Harry Reid is one of the most powerful figures in Washington. He's the Senate Majority Leader and an entrenched four-term member. He is constantly
front and center, leading the Democrats' agenda on Capitol Hill, and he has
over $7 million on hand to use to win another six-year term. But there's a small
problem. No, actually, there's a big problem. Harry Reid is not very popular among his constituents. His approval ratings are
under 40%, and recent
polls indicate he would lose to, not one, but two different GOP challengers. In addition,
Charlie Cook rates this race a toss-up - not an enviable position for an incumbent, especially this far out from Election
Day. Reid is definitely in trouble, though the cash he has in his coffers will make him formidable. Were it not for the dough, he most likely would be destined to follow in the
footsteps of one Tom Daschle, another Democratic Senate Majority Leader to lose his seat.
Filed under:
Senate
Nevada
NV Senate
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:49pm 10/12/09::
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| Thursday, October 8, 2009 |
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| VA Governor: Deeds' momentum stalls indeed |
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Last month, I explained why Virginia gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds' Washington Post editorial
might slow the obvious momentum he had enjoyed during the
two or three weeks prior. A couple of polls released since then lend credence to my analysis as the Democrat's showing has slowly declined. Today,
another poll, released by the same Washington Post, continues to
reflect that decline. Grouped with the two previous WaPo polls, it also paints a picture of the ebb and flow of this race.
In August, Deeds trailed GOP candidate Bob McDonnell by 15 points as McDonnell appeared to be cruising to victory. Then last month, when Deeds clearly made headway
with Virginia voters, that McDonnell advantage had shrunk to just 4 points. In this latest poll, McDonnell has stretched the lead back to 9. With less than 4 weeks remaining
until Election Day, and given the momentum now in McDonnell's favor, The Blogging Caesar predicts the GOP will end up triumphant. But in a state where Democrats grow more plentiful with every election, I expect the race to be very close in the end.
Filed under:
Governors - 2009
Virginia - 2009
VA Governor - 2009
posted by Scott Elliott at 9:59pm 10/08/09::
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| Wednesday, October 7, 2009 |
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| DE Senate: Castle will run! |
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GOP hopes at gaining a senate seat in a blue state just got a little brighter. Mike Castle has announced that
he will run for Vice President Joe Biden's seat in Delaware.
His likely opponent will be Beau Biden, the Veep's son. Castle is the current U.S. Representative from Delaware's lone at-large congressional district. His candidacy lands this
race squarely in the highly competitive category and represents an unexpected difficult hold for Democrats.
Filed under:
Senate
Delaware
DE Senate
posted by Scott Elliott at 7:11pm 10/07/09::
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| Tuesday, October 6, 2009 |
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| NJ Gov: First poll showing Corzine with lead |
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Last week, I pointed to New Jersey's habit of teasing Republicans with
early promising polls, only to disappoint them come Election Day. With that in mind, I fully expect embattled Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine to retain residency in New Jersey's
Goveror's Mansion. Most recent polls, one from
Rasmussen and one from
Fairleigh Dickinson, give me more confidence in my pessimistic
expectations. Corzine has narrowed the gap with GOP candidate Chris Christie in Rasmussen's survey. After trailing by 7 and 8 points in the last two polls, Corzine is only 3 point back this week. And the news gets better for him as the Fairleigh Dickinson poll now shows him actually leading Christie by a point. I predict Corzine will continue to gain
through the rest of this month and win by 6 or so on November 3rd.
Filed under:
Governors - 2009
New Jersey - 2009
NJ Governor - 2009
posted by Scott Elliott at 7:15pm 10/06/09::
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| Sunday, October 4, 2009 |
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| DE Sen: Will Castle run? |
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A Rasmussen Poll released late last week gives GOP Congressman Mike Castle an edge over Vice President Joe Biden's son, Beau, in the special election race for the Veep's old senate
seat. Even though he has made a career out of running for office in the blue state of Delaware, Castle has never lost a race in over 40 years. The big question, however,
is whether Castle chooses to run. He is 70 years of age and has not declared his candidacy (Beau Biden hasn't decided on a run either). With the only declared GOPer,
political commentator Christine O'Donnell, losing a hypothetical match-up with the younger Biden by 9 points, the Republicans' only realistic shot at winning this race appears to require
a Castle candidacy.
Filed under:
Senate
Delaware
DE Senate
posted by Scott Elliott at 9:18pm 10/04/09::
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| Thurssday, October 1, 2009 |
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| NJ Gov: New Jersey, ever the tease |
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| Republicans are looking at this year's govenor race in New Jersey with great anticipation. Hopeful of captilaizing on current Democratic Governor Jon
Corzine's dismal approval numbers, the GOP is confident of wresting the statehouse away from the entrenched incumbent party in this deep blue state. The Blogging Caesar says don't count on
it! As I have said before, New Jerseyans love to make pollsters and pundits think they are amenable
to electing Republicans in statewide elections while, in reality, having no intentions of doing so.
Just as I expected, polls in this race are tightening. Regardless of Corzine's approval numbers - or
his distasteful character, for that matter - look for him to hold onto his governorship in November. Ever the tease, New Jersey is up to its old tricks.
Filed under:
Governors - 2009
New Jersey - 2009
NJ Governor - 2009
posted by Scott Elliott at 12:41pm 10/01/09 ::
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