Countdown: 6 days until Election Day
There are three new congressional preference polls in the House projection calculations today along with over two dozen House polls. The generic congressional polls all show
a tight contest there with one giving the GOP a 3-point advantage, another showing Republicans up by one point and the third giving Democrats the edge by two. Those findings
don't move the projections very much at all, but individual House race polls have flipped the projected winner in two districts.
A WeAskAmerica poll out of Illinois CD-13 gives Republican Rodney Davis a 50-45 lead over Democrat David Gill in that open seat race, and in a duel between partisan polls in
Republican Chip Cravaack's Minnesota CD-8, the incumbent's 10-point lead in a Republican poll outpaces Democrat challenger Richard Nolan's 4-point edge in his own internal poll. As a
result of this polling data, both GOP-held seats are projected to be Republican holds once again.
Significantly, these party-switchers convert a projected 1-seat net gain for Democrats in the
House to a 1-seat gain for their Republican counterparts. The projected balance of power in the lower chamber now stands at 243 Republicans and
192 Democrats.
Here are a couple reminders as we move into the final week before Election Day. Be sure to bookmark my
2012 Election Results page. I'll be updating battleground state voting every 15 minutes on election
night once returns start coming in. Also, let me give a heartfelt thank you to the folks who have
participated in EP's 2012 fundraiser to this point. However, in the wake of the destruction left behind by Sandy, I want to encourage those who would like to contribute to Election Projection to consider
contributing to the relief effort in the Northeast instead. Please help those in real need. Thanks!
| October 31 Election Projection Update |
| Electoral Votes |
Current |
Previous |
Change |
| Barack Obama |
290 |
290 |
no change |
| Mitt Romney |
248 |
248 |
no change |
| Party switchers: none |
| |
| Popular Vote |
Current |
Previous |
Change |
| Mitt Romney |
49.6 |
49.9 |
-0.3 |
| Barack Obama |
48.9 |
48.6 |
+0.3 |
| Party switchers: none |
| |
| U.S. Senate |
Current |
Previous |
Change |
| Democrats |
51 |
51 |
no change |
| Republicans |
47 |
47 |
no change |
| Independents |
2 |
2 |
no change |
| Party switchers: none |
| |
| U.S. House |
Current |
Previous |
Change |
| Republicans |
243 |
241 |
+2 |
| Democrats |
192 |
194 |
-2 |
| Party switchers: Illinois CD-13, Minnesota CD-8 |
| |
| Governors |
Current |
Previous |
Change |
| Republicans |
31 |
31 |
no change |
| Democrats |
18 |
18 |
no change |
| Independents |
1 |
1 |
no change |
| Party switchers: none |
| |
|
Next update will be tomorrow.
Filed under:
Illinois House District 13 Race
Minnesota House District 8 Race
2012 Projection Updates
2012 House
posted by Scott Elliott at 10:58am 10/31/12::
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