Home  Blog  Election Polls  President 2012  Senate 2012  House 2012  Governors 2012  GOP Primaries 2012  Redistricting 2012  Formulas  Results  About me


    "The Blogging Caesar at Election Projection is one of the web's best prognosticators" - Hugh Hewitt

2012 Projections


Election Projection cannot screen all advertisements appearing here.  Therefore, I do not necessarily endorse the products and/or services shown.


April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
November 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
November 2004
October 2004
September 2004
August 2004
July 2004
June 2004
May 2004
April 2004
March 2004
February 2004
January 2004
December 2003

  Politics and Elections
Wednesday, October 31, 2012

EP update for October 31 - House count back to a Republican advantage
Countdown:  6 days until Election Day
There are three new congressional preference polls in the House projection calculations today along with over two dozen House polls.  The generic congressional polls all show a tight contest there with one giving the GOP a 3-point advantage, another showing Republicans up by one point and the third giving Democrats the edge by two.  Those findings don't move the projections very much at all, but individual House race polls have flipped the projected winner in two districts.

A WeAskAmerica poll out of Illinois CD-13 gives Republican Rodney Davis a 50-45 lead over Democrat David Gill in that open seat race, and in a duel between partisan polls in Republican Chip Cravaack's Minnesota CD-8, the incumbent's 10-point lead in a Republican poll outpaces Democrat challenger Richard Nolan's 4-point edge in his own internal poll.  As a result of this polling data, both GOP-held seats are projected to be Republican holds once again.

Significantly, these party-switchers convert a projected 1-seat net gain for Democrats in the House to a 1-seat gain for their Republican counterparts.  The projected balance of power in the lower chamber now stands at 243 Republicans and 192 Democrats.

Here are a couple reminders as we move into the final week before Election Day.  Be sure to bookmark my 2012 Election Results page.  I'll be updating battleground state voting every 15 minutes on election night once returns start coming in.  Also, let me give a heartfelt thank you to the folks who have participated in EP's 2012 fundraiser to this point.  However, in the wake of the destruction left behind by Sandy, I want to encourage those who would like to contribute to Election Projection to consider contributing to the relief effort in the Northeast instead.  Please help those in real need.  Thanks!

October 31 Election Projection Update
  Electoral Votes Current Previous Change
  Barack Obama 290 290 no change
  Mitt Romney 248 248 no change
  Party switchers:  none
  Popular Vote Current Previous Change
  Mitt Romney 49.6 49.9 -0.3
  Barack Obama 48.9 48.6 +0.3
  Party switchers:  none
  U.S. Senate Current Previous Change
  Democrats 51 51 no change
  Republicans 47 47 no change
  Independents 2 2 no change
  Party switchers:  none
  U.S. House Current Previous Change
  Republicans 243 241 +2
  Democrats 192 194 -2
  Party switchers:  Illinois CD-13, Minnesota CD-8
  Governors Current Previous Change
  Republicans 31 31 no change
  Democrats 18 18 no change
  Independents 1 1 no change
  Party switchers:  none
Next update will be tomorrow.

<< Previous Politics and Election News Next >>

Special Thanks To:

Charlie Cook
Cook Political

Congressional Quarterly
CQ Politics

D.C. Finegold Sachs
DC's Political Report

Dave Leip
U.S. Election Atlas

David Wissing
The Hedgehog Report

Larry Sabato
Crystal Ball

Richard & Tony
The Green Papers

Rose Institute
Redistricting in America

Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

Election Projection Resources
EP's RSS Feed

Search this site

provided by Google
Contact Me

e-mail Scott at:
gmail <put a period here> com

©Copyright 2003-2013 Scott Elliott, All Rights Reserved