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  Politics and Elections
Wednesday, October 31, 2012

EP update for October 31 - House count back to a Republican advantage
Countdown:  6 days until Election Day
There are three new congressional preference polls in the House projection calculations today along with over two dozen House polls.  The generic congressional polls all show a tight contest there with one giving the GOP a 3-point advantage, another showing Republicans up by one point and the third giving Democrats the edge by two.  Those findings don't move the projections very much at all, but individual House race polls have flipped the projected winner in two districts.

A WeAskAmerica poll out of Illinois CD-13 gives Republican Rodney Davis a 50-45 lead over Democrat David Gill in that open seat race, and in a duel between partisan polls in Republican Chip Cravaack's Minnesota CD-8, the incumbent's 10-point lead in a Republican poll outpaces Democrat challenger Richard Nolan's 4-point edge in his own internal poll.  As a result of this polling data, both GOP-held seats are projected to be Republican holds once again.

Significantly, these party-switchers convert a projected 1-seat net gain for Democrats in the House to a 1-seat gain for their Republican counterparts.  The projected balance of power in the lower chamber now stands at 243 Republicans and 192 Democrats.

Here are a couple reminders as we move into the final week before Election Day.  Be sure to bookmark my 2012 Election Results page.  I'll be updating battleground state voting every 15 minutes on election night once returns start coming in.  Also, let me give a heartfelt thank you to the folks who have participated in EP's 2012 fundraiser to this point.  However, in the wake of the destruction left behind by Sandy, I want to encourage those who would like to contribute to Election Projection to consider contributing to the relief effort in the Northeast instead.  Please help those in real need.  Thanks!

October 31 Election Projection Update
  Electoral Votes Current Previous Change
  Barack Obama 290 290 no change
  Mitt Romney 248 248 no change
  Party switchers:  none
 
  Popular Vote Current Previous Change
  Mitt Romney 49.6 49.9 -0.3
  Barack Obama 48.9 48.6 +0.3
  Party switchers:  none
 
  U.S. Senate Current Previous Change
  Democrats 51 51 no change
  Republicans 47 47 no change
  Independents 2 2 no change
  Party switchers:  none
 
  U.S. House Current Previous Change
  Republicans 243 241 +2
  Democrats 192 194 -2
  Party switchers:  Illinois CD-13, Minnesota CD-8
 
  Governors Current Previous Change
  Republicans 31 31 no change
  Democrats 18 18 no change
  Independents 1 1 no change
  Party switchers:  none
 
Next update will be tomorrow.



Filed under: Illinois House District 13 Race  Minnesota House District 8 Race  2012 Projection Updates  2012 House 



posted by Scott Elliott at 10:58am 10/31/12::
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