Home  Blog  Election Polls  President 2012  Senate 2012  House 2012  Governors 2012  GOP Primaries 2012  Redistricting 2012  Formulas  Results  About me


    "The Blogging Caesar at Election Projection is one of the web's best prognosticators" - Hugh Hewitt

2012 Projections


Election Projection cannot screen all advertisements appearing here.  Therefore, I do not necessarily endorse the products and/or services shown.


April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
November 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
November 2004
October 2004
September 2004
August 2004
July 2004
June 2004
May 2004
April 2004
March 2004
February 2004
January 2004
December 2003

  Politics and Elections
Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Public Policy Polliing Ohio poll predicts 37% turnout decrease - updated
Today, Public Policy Polling released a survey testing the presidential race in the all-important battleground state of Ohio.  The poll, conducted Friday, Saturday and Sunday, says Barack Obama has surged to a 4-point lead over Mitt Romney.  If you delve into the internals, though, an amazing fact surfaces.  PPP apparently thinks turnout in Ohio will be 37% less this year than it was in 2008!

How did I arrive at this conclusion?  Well, simple math using the voting data readily available reveals this to be the case.  In 2008, approximately 5.72 million Ohioans voted for president.  This year, as of Friday, Oct 26, 1.26 million have cast their votes early.  In the PPP poll, their sampling includes 35% who say they've already voted.  If that 35% sampling is meant to be representative of the real-time status on the ground in the Buckeye State, then PPP is projecting a turnout of 1.26 million/0.35 or 3.60 million voters.  That's a drop of 37% as compare to 2008.

A couple factors will reduce that projected decrease - early voting that took place on Saturday and Sunday, and absentee ballots that were "in the mail" but not received when PPP conducted their poll.  However, they won't change the fact that PPP's latest survey has a sampling that is completely out of sync with what's really happening in Ohio.  That may or may not affect the top line accuracy of the poll, but it certainly sows many seeds of doubt.

Update:  I've received several emails concerning the mathematics of this post.  From them, I've concluded that there is a lot of misunderstanding about the assertions I made.  Foremost among them is the idea that Public Policy Polling intentionally predicted a 37% turnout decrease in Ohio.  There is no doubt that was not their intention.  Second, some readers have assumed that I am overlooking a host of additional factors that would refute the claim of this post.  That, too, is not the case. 

The data I have examined here result in a simply mathematical conclusion based on raw numbers.  I'll try to do a better job of explaining it.  In PPP's polling sample, 35% already voted and 65% plan to vote but have not yet done so.  In the interest of reflecting a true picture of the Ohio electorate, PPP's voter sample should be mappable, for lack of a better term, to the electorate at large.  If you grant that they have collected an accurate picture of the electorate, then you would conclude that 35% of everyone who will vote in Ohio in 2012 have already voted.

Now, look at current actual voter numbers.  As I mentioned in the post, 1.26 million had voted as of last Friday.  If, then, 1.26 million voters represent 35% of all those who will vote as PPP's sample suggests, that works out to 3.60 million total voters when all is said and done - and that's 37% less than the 5.72 million who voted in 2008.  Let me reiterate - I do not believe that only 3.6 million people will vote in Ohio in 2012 - nor does PPP in my view.  My only point here is to shine a light on the impracticality of PPP's sample and thus cast doubt on the validity of their poll's findings.

<< Previous Politics and Election News Next >>

Special Thanks To:

Charlie Cook
Cook Political

Congressional Quarterly
CQ Politics

D.C. Finegold Sachs
DC's Political Report

Dave Leip
U.S. Election Atlas

David Wissing
The Hedgehog Report

Larry Sabato
Crystal Ball

Richard & Tony
The Green Papers

Rose Institute
Redistricting in America

Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

Election Projection Resources
EP's RSS Feed

Search this site

provided by Google
Contact Me

e-mail Scott at:
gmail <put a period here> com

©Copyright 2003-2013 Scott Elliott, All Rights Reserved