"Name Your Price" drive for 800:  Today is the last day of September.  Election Projection Premium Content now has 753 paid subscribers.  I thought it would be cool to have a one-day push to see if we could get to 800 subscribers by the end of the month (which is today!).  If you've been contemplating subscribing, this would be a great day to jump in.  To help make the decision easier for you, I've gathered over two-dozen emails from folks who are currently enjoying their subscription and published them on a new testimonials page.

Here are a couple of snippets you'll find there from satisfied subscribers.

"Just felt compelled today to email you and let you know how awesome your site is.  I am a left leaning independent who was a Kerry supporter in the last election.  I have read your self stated right leanings but must say I feel that you do a superb job of writing in an objective manner.  In fact, I can't think of anyone in print, radio, or TV who's opinions I respect more.  Anyway, just wanted to state my appreciation for a site well done." - TH

"I found election projection in April of 2006.  I have been hooked ever since.  I would not have been able to live without your premium subscription with all the latest and up-to-date information.  Also, I would love to say thank you so much for offering a name your own price.  As a full time political science major, much more than name your own would have been unaffordable!  Thanks again for everything and all the hard work!" - EG

If you haven't signed up yet, please do it today!  You can click here to subscribe or to learn more about what Election Projection Premium Content has to offer.  Help me get to 800!  Thank you!

I'll be posting progress on how things are going throughout the day.  Check back here periodically to see how many folks have signed up so far.

Update (8:45am):  We're off to a great start so far!  It is now 8:45am, and I've already received 9 new subscriptions.  Thrity-eight more will get us to the goal of 800.  Thank you again!

Update2 (11:00am):  Let me say a big "Thank you" to the twenty folks who have signed up so far - 27 more to go!

Update3 (1:00pm):  We're up to 779!  Twenty-six today.  Twenty-one more to go.  That means we're over half way there!

Update4 (3:20pm):  Only 14 more to go!  As of now, 33 folks have signed up today, bringing the total to 786.

Update5 (5:40pm):  We're getting close now - only 9 more to go!  That's 38 heartfelt thank you's I'm sending out today.

Update6 (7:40pm):  Wow, what can I say?  When I kicked off this "subscriber drive" this morning, I truly didn't know if enough of you would respond to reach the 800 mark.  Here we are at 7:40 in the evening, and I just received the 47th and 48th subscription notifications of the day.  Overall, those would be subscribers 800 and 801!  Your tremendous response today has overwhelmed me, and I am deeply grateful.  Of course, there's no reason to stop here - on to 1000!

State page updates:  Since I went through updating the projection history on a large number of races, nearly all fifty state pages have been updated today.

Weekly Election Projection Update:

President:  Last Week, Barack Obama overtook John McCain in the projected popular vote here at Election Projection.  This week, he has seen that lead expand.  But, as I pointed out to subscribers in a recent Email Alert, the Electoral College has settled into a state of equilibrium.  Even though the polls have moved in Obama's direction, the shift is not significant enough to impact the electoral vote tally.  It's still stuck at 273 EVs for Obama and 265 for McCain for the third week in a row.  Polls released in the coming days, after the public has had a chance to react to the first presidential debate on Friday night, may be enough to flip a state or two in one direction or the other.

The most likely flips?  Florida, Ohio and Virginia.  These three states, representing sixty EVs, are teetering within one point of moving over into Obama's column.  McCain will need improved poll numbers to avoid falling farther behind in the short term.  If you're like me, sitting on the edge of your seat to see which states flip and when, this would be a great week to sign up for Election Projection Premium Content.  You'll get daily electoral vote updates - and not just which states are red and blue.  With access to the projected margins in each state, you'll also know just how close the candidates stand in battleground states like Florida, Ohio, and Virginia - and all the others as well.  And the best part?  You determine what you can afford to subscribe.  So why don't you "Name Your Price" today?

Senate:  Capitol Hill is a bit bluer today.  At least that's the projection.  Last week, I noted the close race North Carolina GOP Senator Elizabeth Dole has on her hands with Democratic challenger, Kay Hagan.  Indeed, Hagan's strong showing in recent polls has moved her back in the lead in this week's update.  This race has flipped back and forth already a couple of times.  We could see several more flips over the next 5 weeks.  Dole-Hagan may turn out to be the closest Senate race in the nation this Election Day.  For now, with Hagan owning the upper hand, the Democrats projected advantage in the Senate rises to 58-42 if the two independents are included.

Governors:  The projected count here stays at 29-23 in favor of the Democrats.  No changes this week in terms of takeovers.  Washington and North Carolina remain in the red column, and Missouri is solidly in the blue column.

House:  Louisiana's sixth district looks more like a Democratic hold today.  Democrat Don Cazayoux has regained the projected lead this week after falling behind GOPer Bill Cassidy two weeks ago.  As a result, the Democrats appear set to gain a net 10 seats in the House.  Program note:  This coming week, I will be adding tracking for at least one additional House race.  I'll post something when that process has been completed.

State page updates:  The following state pages have been updated this morning:  California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia and Wyoming.

- This debate will be about foreign policy, but candidates will discuss the present financial upheaval as well.

- Opening salvo is about where they stand on the mortgage crisis.  Obama tries to pin the crisis on failed Bush policies.  McCain's response is more nuts and bolts solutions rather than philosophical concepts.

- Obama's second response again points to Republican policies as being the culprit.  It is amazing to me that he can do that so freely when facts point to other sources of blame.  The influence of the mainstream media over the perception of those on main street is staggering.  It has created a green house of deception which allows Obama to put forth these accusations without worrying about being called on it.

- McCain should make more of the fact that he sponsored a bill in 2005 which would have reigned in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and likely averted this catastrophe - a bill that was killed by Democrats.

- Obama harps on tax cuts for the rich.  McCain points out his commitment to stifling earmarks and points to Obama's affinity for earmarks - until he started running for president.

- Early on, I'd give Obama the edge.

- This is turning into a solely domestic debate.  We'll see if we ever get to foreign policy.

- Obama is performing well and doing a good job of conveying his plans, but I wonder if folks will see that Obama's claims to what he will do and what he will cut cannot ever be reality together.

- McCain makes a good reference to his experience - "I know how to do this".  That should score points.

- McCain would freeze spending except for defense, veterans affairs and entitlements as a result of the mortgage crisis.  Obama's reaction to freezing spending was to point out what programs need more spending - that's a telling difference between the two men.

- Both men are persistently saying the same thing now.  Obama keeps harping on tax cuts for the rich; McCain keeps harping on cutting spending.  Frankly, this is getting pretty repetitive on both accounts.

- Obama tries to tie McCain to Bush; McCain reaffirms his maverick status.  That is what I have believed for a long time makes McCain the only Republican who could compete well for the White House this year.

FINALLY FOREIGN POLICY!

- McCain leverages the success of the surge in Iraq.  Obama plays to the anti-war base in his response.

- McCain's point that the president to come will not have to make the decision whether to go into Iraq but the best way to leave is a good one.  My hunch is that Obama's position on the Iraq war - now that surge has worked - plays well to the base, but not too well beyond that.

- Obama deflected well McCain's pointing out that Obama voted against a troop funding bill.  McCain voted against a funding bill with a timetable.

- McCain is gaining overall in this debate now that we're on foreign policy, but Obama is holding his own as we move to Afghanistan.

- Responses initially on Pakistan favor McCain.  He tied the strategy to success in Iraq to the strategy he says we need in Afghanistan.  But Obama counters with specifics about striking bin Laden which somewhat mute McCain's earlier assertions.

- Both men are doing well.  Obama is showing some understanding of foreign policy, which is critical for him to do.  McCain is effectively differentiating himself from Obama in terms of actual experience.  That'll be good for him.  Foreign policy is definitely one of McCain's strengths.

- Obama probably scores points with his comments referencing McCain's "muddle through" remarks on Afghanistan.  McCain continues to harp on Obama's persistent opposition to the sucessful strategy of the surge - that's a good thing for him to do.

- The Iran discussion is favoring Obama a bit I think.  He's doing very well.

- McCain counters well Obama's quoting of Henry Kissinger's statement that we should talk with Iran.

Now on to Russia...

- Again here, Obama is impressive in explaining his positions regarding Russia and our relations with them, though they are clearly well-refined from debate practice.  As McCain points out, Obama's initial reaction when the Russian aggression occurred left much to be desired.  McCain is trying to portray Obama as inexperienced, naive, and lacking insight into foreign policy issues.  It is hard for me to gauge how effective he will turn out to be in that.

- Obama's treatise on energy sounds just like the comprehensive energy policy that McCain offered back when Obama was against off-shore drilling.  McCain should have hit that one out of the park, but he hit a foul ball by not pointing that out.

Conclusion:  Obama needed to hold his own and show a good grasp on foreign policy.  He did that reasonably well, I think, exceeding this blogger's expectations.  McCain also showed an extensive and deep understanding of foreign policy.  The objectives on both sides were clear.  Obama set out to tie McCain to Bush and what Obama characterized as his "failed policies."  McCain's intention was to cast doubt on Obama's experience, and he many times referred to Obama as "just not getting" important foreign policy issues.

Debates are rarely judged on who wins straight up.  How each participant performs relative to expectations going in is the measuring stick more often used to determine the winner.  In that sense, Obama probably won by a hair if only by not losing too bad.

Even so, from a personal standpoint, I feel much more comfortable entrusting the security of our nation to someone with the proven experience and hand's on training and skill in national security and foreign policy than to one whose only experience is the head knowledge he has developed through his preparation to run for the presidency.

Update:  Mrs. Blogging Caesar has a different take on the debate.  Again it stems from expectations.  Since she anticipated McCain having trouble expressing his positions and Obama exhibiting his smooth-talking prowess, she came away from the debate thinking McCain won by a good margin.  She was impressed by his knowledgable experience and specific strategies over the academic rhetoric of Obama.  Perhaps she is right.  Perhaps her impression more closely reflects that of the general voting public.  We'll have to see how the polls react in the coming days.

Forty-seven polls:  Today's Daily Poll Report includes 30 national and state presidential polls, 8 Senate polls, 7 House polls and 2 gubernatorial polls.  That's 47 polls just today.  You won't find a more comprehensive list of current polls anywhere on the net that I know of.  I point this out for two reasons.  First, so that you'll make Election Projection a daily stop in your search for election polls.  And second, to demonstrate the kind of thoroughness and consistency you'll receive by subscribing to Election Projection's "Name Your Price" subscription program.

Here's what one subscriber had to say:  "Election Projection is a great, well-thought-out web site for any follower of politics who wants deeper access to the blizzard of polls that hit us.  At the modest price asked, premium access actually pays for itself in terms of time not spent hopping around." - DN.

And another: "I have found your site to be the most accurate of all of the polling sites.  Your blogs are informational as well and often, as we get closer to the election, I hear your insights also being reflected by cable news pollsters and pundits!  You were so spot on in 2006, it was amazing!  It gave me a whole new way to take in the election.  Also, in all of the ups and downs of the polls, you take a rational and balanced approach which really helps the nerves!" - AK.

Click here to subscribe or to read more about what Election Projection Premium Content has to offer.

State page updates:  The following state pages have been updated this morning:  Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia and Wisconsin.

Polling companies have a very difficult time quantifying either of these competing factors.  Their likely voter models rely on previous voting patterns, which can under-represent the new vote.  Yet, they depend on the getting the true intent of the people they poll, thus leading to the Bradley Effect.  How well polls reflect these factors will determine how accurate they are.  If the actual size of the new vote outpaces the Bradley Effect, Obama will perform better than the polls predict.  But if the Bradley Effect is larger than the new vote, McCain will enjoy an unexpected boost on Election Day.

Say what you will about polls, the winner of the election very likely will be the one who benefits most from these two currents running below the surface.  But because they are unmeasurable, at least until after the election, the outcome of their battle is one of the biggest question marks of this election.

State page updates:  The following state pages have been updated this morning:  Alabama, Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Virginia, Washington and West Virginia.

State page updates:  The following state pages have been updated this morning:  Arkansas, California, Colorado, Florida, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Mississippi, Michigan, New Hampshire, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Vermont and Wisconsin.

Here's what one subscriber has to say:  "Election Projection is a great site.  It has detail and analysis I cannot find anywhere else and gives a great picture of the political situation in each State.  Predictions are good and well-supported." - JM

State page updates:  The following state pages have been updated this morning:  Alaska, Connecticut, California, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Weekly Election Projection Update:  The McCain bounce is officially over; Obama keeps his electoral vote lead and moves back in front in the popular vote.  A Senate race's short-lived stint in the blue column is over.  Not much movement in the House and governors' races.  With only 6 weeks left before Election Day, here's a look at this week's numbers.

President:  Back in August, John McCain briefly overtook Barack Obama in the all-important Electoral College tally here at Election Projection.  That lead, however, lasted but one day.  On Tuesday, when McCain again gained the advantage at 274-264, I wrote to subscribers wondering if his lead would last longer this time.  It did.  This time it lasted until Friday - a whopping three days!  On Friday, Colorado, whose 9 EV's had given McCain the lead on Tuesday, flipped back to blue.  That's where we stand today, back at the 273-265 count that we had for last week's update.

Senate:  There was one flip this week in the upper chamber's projections.  Gordon Smith has lost his advantage in the Oregon Senate race when a Democratic poll put him slightly behind his Democratic opponent, Jeff Merkley.  I surmised correctly last week that his projected loss would flip back in his favor with the release of additional polling.  That was the case.  Two polls showing him with small leads have moved him back out in front, albeit by a narrow margin.  Smith certainly has his hands full in this race and could end up on the short end of the result.

Another Senator facing a difficult path to re-election is North Carolina Republican Elizabeth Dole.  Polls in the this race have been all over the map.  Currently, the average of them all projects Dole will pull it out against Democrat Kay Hagan.  However, expect this one to remain very close all the way to Election Day.  As it stand this week, with both Oregon and North Carolina in the red column, the Democrats are projected to win 5 Senate seats.  That would give them a 54-44 advantage with 2 independents who usually side with the Democrats.

Governors:  Washington and North Carolina remain projected GOP takeovers this week, and Missouri appears to be solidly in Democratic hands.  With a two to one projected takeover advantage, the 11 races for statehouses provide a bright spot for Republicans in an otherwise less than rosy year at this point.

House:  No change in the projected count in the House.  The Democrats are still projected to win 9 more seats after their romp in 2006.  I am currently tracking 63 close House races, but I also keep an eye out for other races which may be tightening as we move toward November 4.  Two races popping up on my radar screen lately are Kentucky CD-2 and Maryland CD-1, both Republican-held districts.  Polls have shown these races may be competitive.  I'll let you know if I decide to initiate tracking on them, and, of course, subscribers will get all the details updated daily if and when that happens.  Let me add that I haven't found a more comprehensive and quantitative method of predicting House races than what you get here at Election Projection.  Why not "Name Your Price" today?

State page updates:  The following state pages have been updated this morning:  Alaska, Alabama, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Idaho, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina and Washington.

State page updates:  The following state pages have been updated this morning:  Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Florida, Hawaii, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Washington, Vermont, Virginia and Wisconsin.

State page updates:  The following state pages have been updated this morning:  Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, West Virginia. Wisconsin, Wyoming.

Redrawn battleground:  Up until the GOP convention, I had been pretty pessimistic about McCain's chances to win this election in a year when there really should be little hope.  That sentiment has changed for me lately as I watch an interesting phenomenon taking place amid the reds and blues which color the maps here at Election Projection. 

A month ago, the battleground was made up of Bush states like Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio, New Mexico, Iowa, and Florida.  No Kerry state was even close at that point.  Now, those states are still heavily-contested (with the possible exception of Florida), but the battleground today encompasses several blue states conspicuously absent just a few weeks ago.  The idea that McCain might be able to pick up states like Michigan and New Hampshire, and have a decent shot at a Pennsylvania or Minnesota, represents a fundamental shift in the political landscape from August.

All this doesn't mean at all that McCain has attained front-runner status.  It just means a McCain victory is a serious possibility.  The outcome may not be even money just yet, but it is getting pretty close.  The numbers should fluctuate only marginally until the debates, which take on a much more important role, potentially, on this ever-evening playing field.

State page updates:  The following state pages have been updated this morning:  Montana, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Vermont.

State page updates:  The following state pages have been updated this morning:  Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Utah and Virginia.

President:  Last week, "Name Your Price" subscribers saw Nevada move from blue to red on Tuesday, red to blue on Wednesday, and back to red on Friday.  That's where it stands now.  But the Silver State coming to rest in McCain's column isn't enough to give him the EV lead.  Barack Obama still maintains a slim 273-265 advantage by virtue of projected victories in the 2004 Bush states of Colorado, Iowa, and New Mexico.

The popular vote is another story.  McCain's performance in national polls has improved significantly since the convention (or should I say, since his selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate?).  He now leads Obama in that category for the first time since Election Projection began tracking the race in earnest back in June.

Before I leave the presidential race, I think it is worthy to note that, overall, the difference in the Electoral College map this week is stark.  While only Nevada has actually flipped to McCain's side, many states have moved in his direction.  Several red states have become darker red (AL, LA, MS, MT, SD, TX), and several blue states have moved into the Weak Obama category (MI, MN, NM, PA, WI).  If these numbers hold until the debates, I'll have to change my tune about Mr. Obama having a structural advantage in the race.  If McCain still leads in the projected popular vote and still threatens in the EV count when Palin and Biden go at it in early October, I'll be convinced it is anybody's race.  In fact, I'm probably to that point already, except for the fact that bounces tend to come back down after they go up.

Senate:  Elizabeth Dole enjoyed a bit of a rise in the polls this week and now sits back in the lead in her quest for re-election in North Carolina.  Countering that party switcher, is the race in Oregon.  Republican Gordon Smith is struggling to keep ahead of Democrat Jeff Merkley.  The challenger is projected to take the seat away from Smith as a result of a new poll giving Merkley the slimmest of leads and two other polls aging out of the calculations.  My hunch is that, since the poll was conducted for the Merkley campaign, this seat will revert back as soon as another poll is released.

Governors:  Perhaps no Republicans, save for McCain himself, have enjoyed as much of a bounce as Dino Rossi and Pat McCrory, two challengers vying for statehouses on opposites coasts.  First Rossi, who lost an excruciatingly close and controversial battle with Christine Gregoire in Washington in 2004, has moved ahead of Gregoire in this year's rematch.  And then there's McCrory in North Carolina.  A recent debate here with Democratic nominee Beverly Perdue may have something to do with his improving numbers, or it may just be rising perceptions of the GOP in general.  Whatever it is, he has also moved in front, giving the GOP two projected statehouse pickups in this week's gubernatorial tally.

House:  The GOP outlook in the House has improved as well this week.  Two party-switchers headline the changes.  In Louisiana, Don Cazayoux was projected to hold his sixth district seat for the Democrats.  That was the preliminary Election Projection assessment.  However, I initiated tracking for his race this week following Louisiana's partial primary, and the first numerical calculations of the race give the edge to Republican Bill Cassidy.

Then there's New Jersey 7, where Leonard Lance moves ahead of Linda Stender in his bid to keep this open seat in the GOP fold.  The previous update had this seat going to the Democrats.  Due to these two changes, the Democrats' projected gain in the lower chamber is down two to nine.  They still hold a 245-190 seat advantage in this week's projection, however.

Testimonials:  As you probably know if you visited Election Projection more than once or twice during the last couple of weeks, I'm offering a unique "Name Your Price" subscription program which lets you decide how much to pay for Election Projection Premium Content.  This is the second election season in which I've instituted this program.  If you are considering signing up, I thought you might like to read what other folks said about the premium content in 2006.  You can read their thoughts by clicking here.  After that, you can find out all the great stuff Election Projection Premium Content has to offer in 2008 by checking this out.  Please consider helping Election Projection stay up and running by joining the more than 470 subscribers who've already named their price.  Thank you!

State page updates:  The following state pages have been updated this morning:  Delaware, Iowa, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin.

I've been waiting to see if McCain's bounce would seep into the blue states.  A couple of polls in today's crop indicate that may be happening.  Two polls now show McCain ahead of Obama in Michigan.  These surveys move that state squarely into the very competitive category.  While Michigan still retains its blue shade this morning, the numbers do give Obama cause to worry.  On the other hand, Colorado continues to be a rough proposition for McCain.  Obama maintains a small lead there in two others polls out recently.

Yesterday, I scoffed at SurveyUSA's North Carolina poll showing McCain up 20.  After another poll from Research 2000 gives McCain a 17-point lead here, I beginning to think Obama's early gains in my home state may be subsiding.  The senate race and the governor's race look more favorable for the GOP as well.  Nevada is red again today.  That state just keeps going back and forth!  InsiderAdvantage has McCain up 5 in Nevada in their most recent batch of state polls.  That switch moves the EV tally to 273-265 with Obama still in the lead.

On the national front, no less than six polls were released yesterday.  Four have McCain with a small 2-4 point lead.  One gives Obama the lead by 2, and one is tied.  The result - and I think this pretty accurately depicts the current state of the race after the convention bounces - McCain now has a small advantage.  That is sure to fluctuate over the next 8 weeks.

State page updates:  The following state pages have been updated this morning:  Alabama, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Maine, Mississippi, Montana, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Let us not forget on this seventh anniversary, that those who desired to kill thousands of our sons and daughters, mothers and fathers, still hate, still plot.  As painful as it may be to remember the fiery scenes of that fateful day, we must never let those memories fade.  They must remain in our minds and hearts as a reminder of the ever-present evil that still yearns to strike us.

Today as I think of the families of the ones who perished, I know that the loss still resounds in their souls.  Time can reduce the intensity of the pain, but the hole that is left will persist.  I pray God's peace and comfort on them as today we honor the memory of their loved ones.

State page updates:  The following state pages have been updated this morning:  Alaska, Hawaii, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virginia.

Daily Poll Report:  For the most comprehensive compilation of the latest national and state presidential polls as well as Senate, gubernatorial and House polls, posted each weekday, click here.

State page updates:  The following state pages have been updated this morning, Tuesday, September 9:  Alaska, Arkansas, Delaware, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Montana, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin.

Election Projection Premium Content:  EP's free preview of the subscribers' side of the website has ended.  However, you don't have to miss a day of the state-by-state fun updated daily here at Election Projection.  All you need to do is "Name Your Price" to get unlimited access to all that Election Projection has to offer.  As of this morning, 264 readers have already subscribed.  I hope you'll join them - the generous contributions of folks like you are what enables me to continue publishing Election Projection.  Thank you!

So what do these polls mean for the numbers?  If you've been checking the daily updates on Election Projection Premium Content, you'll know that last week Obama gathered Virginia and Ohio into his column and had an 84 electoral vote lead on Friday.  Today, as a result of the bounce enjoyed by McCain over the weekend, Virginia and Ohio find themselves colored red once again.

It will be interesting to see how state polls react over the next 10-14 days as I have found none since the Republican convention ended.  We won't know the whole picture of the race coming out of the conventions until we see a batch of battleground state polls.  My hunch is that Colorado and Nevada will tilt temporarily toward McCain, giving him an overall lead in the Electoral College.  Clearly, picking Palin as his running mate has ensured him a fighting chance to win in November, but the fundamentals in the battleground states continue to give Obama a structural edge.  For McCain to win, all the cards still have to fall in his favor.

Senate update:  The presidential contest is not the only important campaign being waged this year.  A dozen critical Senate races and more than sixty hotly-contested House races under the microscope here at Election Projection.  And there has been movement on both fronts this past week.  In the Senate, Democrat Kay Hagan's challenge to Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina is looking very strong at the moment.  Two recent polls show Hagan ahead which, in turn, has produced a sixth projected Democratic takeover in the Senate.  The projected count now stands at 55 Democrats to just 43 Republicans.

House update:  In the lower chamber, the projected Democratic gain continues to rise.  Nevada's third district is the latest conquest, converting to blue over the weekend as Larry Sabato has moved this race into the toss-up category.  Overall, two projected GOP takeovers are dwarfed by a baker's dozen of Democratic ones.  If anyone's counting, that's a net gain of 11 and gives the Democrats a projected 247-188 advantage in the House.

Over the weekend, as part of my ongoing efforts to bring you the best coverage of congressional races on the web, I added three more races to my "hotly-contested" list based on the evaluations of the four political pundits I use to compute EP's House projections.  Florida CD-25, Kansas CD-3 and Nevada CD-2 join the list.  That makes 63 races in all that you'll find detailed information for on the pages of Election Projection.

Election Projection Premium Content Free Preview:  For the last two weeks, many of you have enjoyed free access to Election Projection Premium Content.  Today is the last day of the free preview.  Tomorrow, you will need a "Name Your Price" subscription to view the subscriber side of the website.  So far, over 200 folks have signed up to help support my efforts here at a price they determined was right for them.  If you haven't already done so, I hope you will take advantage of the "Name Your Price" subscription program, too.  Your generous contribution is what helps keep Election Projection up and running.  Thank you!

I thought the speech was directed to moderates and undecideds quite a bit more than other speeches I heard this week.  His tone was much more civil toward his opponent than previous speeches, and his treatment of the struggles of common Americans and the empathy which exuded from his words will resonate well with them.  Indeed, McCain's references to corporate welfare and campaign finance reform would have most likely drawn a smattering of boos from the folks in the arena in any other setting.  He spoke like the maverick he is.  But he didn't exclude his base from the table.  He fed the partisans in the hall plenty of traditional conservative morsels to more than satisfy them.  He stood firm on pro-life, strong military, parental choice in education, off-shore drilling, constructionist judges, and reducing taxes and government spending.

In that it was a very good speech.  He was able to span much of the ideological spectrum and in doing so present himself as a viable option for a large percentage of the electorate.  And the way he told his story of imprisonment with such passion, ending it in a crescendo of Kennedy-like calls for citizen action, I imagine I was not the only one inspired - not by a long shot.

So how will this speech effect the race?  He will get a significant bounce from it - I fully expect polls to show an even race in a week or so.  He has renewed his appeal to moderates and independents while firing up the base with a passionate intensity I hadn't seen him display.  There is no doubt on most things John McCain is a real conservative, yet he's the only Republican currently on the national stage who can be a legitimate "change candidate" in this difficult political climate for the GOP.

Conclusion:  Either candidate can win this thing.  We're in for an exciting eight and 1/2 weeks.

On the fortitude front, most folks probably realize that John McCain's pick will be a force, someone not to be underestimated.  This is a woman - at least from what I saw last night - that I wouldn't mind having in the White House.  And that was, I think, her most important accomplishment of the evening.  She made her presence on the GOP ticket seem a palatable proposition.

Republican National Convention:  Partisan conventions are designed to enthuse partisans and showcase the party's strengths to the nation.  After watching Rudy Giuliani and Sarah Palin last night, I am definitely enthused.  Yet, I do have a concern about what I heard last night.  I understand conventions like this are effective forums to point out the weaknesses and inadequacies of opposing candidates, but I don't think a biting, mocking tone is the best way to win over wavering voters.  There is plenty to point out when it comes to Obama's startlingly thin resume and unabashedly uber-liberal voting record.  I just hope the GOP will better refrain from the kind of hard-edged humor that may turn off those who are still deciding for whom to vote.

Projection changes:  Polls gathered in today's Daily Poll Report have moved another Senate race and another House race into the 'blue.'  You'll have to click on the links to find out which ones changed colors.  These flips increase the projected Democratic takeovers in the Senate and House to six and nine, respectively - both highs so far this year at Election Projection.

Daily email alerts:  As a benefit of Election Projection's "Name Your Price" subscription program, subscribers get a daily email alert detailing the important numbers from that day's update on the website.  I thought since I'm offering a free preview of Election Projection Premium Content until Monday, I'd post a copy of one of the emails for your inspection.  To see the email I sent out to subscribers yesterday, click here.  And let me say a quick thanks to the 143 folks who have already named their price!

Third Party Vote:  Initially, I had reserved just one percent of the projected popular vote for third party candidates in my presidential projection formula.  With Bob Barr's entrance into the race, that number seemed a bit low.  Therefore, I've raised the third party cut to two percent.  Of course, this change doesn't impact the margin between the major party candidates.

Republican National Convention:  After delaying a full schedule in Minneapolis on Monday to wait out the surge of Gustav, Republicans got things rolling in earnest yesterday.  I was only able to catch a few minutes of the proceedings.  Laura Bush happened to be on the stage when I tuned in.  She's a great first lady.  That's about all I got out of last night.  I'll try to catch more of the last two days and post my reactions.  I am especially interested in hearing Sarah Palin speak tonight.

Election Projection Formulas  I changed the poll age requirement for presidential polls.  As I said I would do in yesterday's dispatch, I've updated Election Projection's presidential formula to allow polls older than 30 days if more recent polls are not available.  Also, because approval ratings have been much more sporadic this year than they were in 2006, I've eliminated that component from my Senate and gubernatorial projecton formula.  This change had basically no impact on those races.

Hurricane Gustav:  As I write this, the storm is coming ashore just southwest of New Orleans.  It is a shame that we must examine the political implications of such disasters, but after hurricane Katrina and the aftermath that ensued, nature's storms must become political discussions these days.  Nevertheless, my prayers are with those driven once again from their homes.

It's hard to gauge the impact Gustav will have on the presidential race.  On the negative side for the McCain campaign, the GOP convention will be pared down this week, possibly reducing the amount of enthusiasm and 'bounce' coming out of it.  On the positive side, Gustav offers an opportunity for the GOP to actively fight the perception - fabricated or not - that it isn't willing or able to address such disasters.  And then again, any effort to meet the needs of those impacted by the storm may simply be seen as a ploy to win political points.  We'll find out which it is in the coming days.

Polls  TimJ, an astute reader who's been with me from near the beginning and has generously donated again this year to EP's "Name Your Price" subscription program, points out a small issue with the way I've been handling polls.  Specifically, I have been inconsistent with the dates I assign to the polls used in my calculations.  Polls are usually released a day or two after they are completed, sometimes several days.  Going forward, I will do my best to use the date polls are completed rather than their release date in determining their age.

Another reader pointed out recently that my calculations on some races include polls older than my formulas allow.  In these cases, the polls used are the only ones available, and they involve races whose outcomes are not in doubt.  With these factors in mind, I will be altering the formulas to permit older polls to be used in these cases.

Election Projection Premium Content:  I'm planning on advertising Election Projection this week on some other websites.  Because I want new folks to be able to see all Election Projection has to offer, I'm extending the free preview of my "Name Your Price" subscription program until next Monday.  Have you checked it out yet?