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  Politics and Elections - September, 2009
Thursday, September 24, 2009
VA Gov: Deeds' admission may stall momentum
There are two important statehouse races that will be decided this November - Virginia and New Jersey.  In the Old Dominion, the GOP is hopeful of recapturing the governorship after suffering several high-profile statewide losses over the last two or three election cycles.  Polls until recently showed the Republican candidate, Bob McDonnell, with comfortable margins over Democratic candidate, Creigh Deeds.  Last week, however, Rasmussen's survey of the race indicated movement in Deeds' favor. As late as two weeks ago, McDonnell held a nine-point advantage according to Rasmussen.  In this latest poll, Deeds was behind by only two.  Clearly the race has tightened - at least until Deeds pulled a classic Walter Mondale maneuver in yesterday's Washington Post.

In the op-ed, Deeds expressed his willingness and intent to raise taxes to meet his transportation plan's goals.

Let me be clear regarding taxes.  I will sign a bill that is the product of bipartisan compromise that provides a comprehensive transportation solution.  As a legislator, I have voted for a number of mechanisms to fund transportation, including a gas tax.  And I'll sign a bipartisan bill with a dedicated funding mechanism for transportation - even if it includes new taxes.
Bill Pascoe, whose article at CQPolitics I linked to in today's political Quick Hits section, feels the revelation is "suicidal" and believes it hands the race to McDonnell.  While my view is not so drastic, I do think McDonnell has been given a powerful tool to work to his advantage.  Here's why.

While Virginia has moved measurably to the blue end of the spectrum over the last 10 years, much of the state remains deep red.  The influx of more liberal-leaning folks into the Washington/Richmond/Norfolk corridor has transformed northern and eastern Virginia into a bluish substate. At the same time, vast swaths of the state west and south of Richmond have held onto their ruby red tradition.  The result renders Virginia more a blue and red state than a purple one.  In addition, the larger, predominantly-red areas to the west and south are much less urban than the more-concentrated blue pockets to the north and east.  This combination of delimiters is what makes Deeds' op-ed statements damaging and potentially fatal to his gubernatorial aspirations month after next.

Confessing the willingness to raise taxes is probably not the best idea in a battleground state like Virginia, but the expressed desired to raise taxes to fix transportation issues may be particularly acrid to voters in less urban, GOP strongholds already energized by the first 9 months of Obama's presidency.  McDonnell would be well-served to broadcast Deed's admission often, long and loudly across the southern Piedmont and western mountain regions of the state.  Turnout in these areas has not kept up with other side of the state in recent elections.  If McDonnell and the GOP will make these voters aware of what they face in terms of higher taxes for transportation "fixes" if Deeds were to win, I believe McDonnell will benefit from a massive turnout - relatively-speaking for this off-year election - large enough to provide a winning margin over Deeds in November.



Filed under:  Governors - 2009  Virginia - 2009  VA Governor - 2009 



posted by Scott Elliott at 2:27pm 09/24/09::


Wednesday, September 23, 2009
MO Senate: Blunt (R) 46, Carnahan (D) 46
In what is sure to be one of the most hotly-contested and hard fought senate races next year, Republican Roy Blunt is tied with Democrat Robin Carnahan according to the latest Rasmussen poll out of Missouri.  Both candidates garner 46% support in the poll.  Interestingly, only 5% of those polled are undecided - even though we're still have almost 14 months of campaigning left.  Low voter indecision in this race can be attributed to the familiarity Missourans have with the two candidates.  Each candidate has a strong political resume and a prominent family name in Missouri's political circles.

Blunt has been a member of the United States House of Representatives since 1997 and, as minority whip, has held the number two GOP position in the House.  His son, Matt, recently served as Missouri's governor.  Carnahan is Missouri's current Secretary of State and daughter of Mel Carnahan, a former governor who was tragically killed while campaigning for a senate seat and Jean Carnahan, who was appointed senator after her husband won that election posthumously.

With two strong candidates in a battleground state known for close statewide elections, Missouri's senate contest next year should be fun to watch.  Some folks have listed it as one of the more likely senate seats to switch hands next November - and well it may - but to The Blogging Caesar, this race will be true tossup all the way to Election Day.



Filed under:  Senate  Missouri  MO Senate 



posted by Scott Elliott at 3:58pm 09/23/09::
Sunday, September 20, 2009
Generic ballot poll tightening - updated
Last Tuesday, Rasmussen Reports released their weekly congressional generic ballot poll.  After several weeks of substantial leads, the GOP didn't fare as well in this latest edition.  Forty-one percent still favored the GOP against just 40% for the Democrats, but the margin is well within the margin of error.  The next release of this poll should be on Tuesday.  I'll keep an eye on that one to see if the tightening has any staying power or if it was just a statistical anomaly.

Update:  This week's poll has been published.  The GOP's advantage stands at 4 points.  That's an improvement from last week but doesn't match the 7-point leads they enjoyed previously.  Rasmussen offers this explanation of the movement in the numbers over the last two surveys.

President Obama's speech to Congress two weeks ago may have contributed heavily to last week's surge in Democratic support since it also drove up support for his health care plan and gave his job approval ratings a modest boost.
Time will tell if the lingering boost will persist in the coming weeks or if the GOP will assume an outside-of-the-margin-of-error advantage once again.  With opposition to Obamacare reaching a new high, chances are the GOP will see improvement in this mesurement.



Filed under:  Generic ballot  House 



posted by Scott Elliott at 11:08pm 09/20/09::
Saturday, September 12, 2009
Myrtle Beach, here we come! - updated2
My family and I are headed off to the Grand Strand in South Carolina for a week of much-needed R and R.  We're leaving after Sunday School tomorrow morning and won't be back until next Sunday! Needless to say, there won't be much in the way of updates while we're gone. However, now that I have my blogposting software running well, I might be tempted to use it if I get some alone time down there.

Update on the website rework:  I've completed converting all the previous content to the new format.  You may have already noticed some of the changes.  Each post now has it's own page with the title in the URL and in the browser title bar.  These particular changes were made with search engine optimization in mind.  But, that's not all that I have in the works.  For one, Mrs. Blogging Caesar will soon be getting in the blogging business treating such subjects as health, nutrition, gluten and other food allergies, as well other health issues.  And I will be adding to the topics I blog about too.  So, look for an expanded array of choices for your reading pleasure in the coming weeks.

Update:  Since I need to do a little more testing on my blogposter program, I thought I'd use the opportunity to explain a little bit about it.  Election Projection involves a lot of gadgets and formats which make it difficult to incorporate blogposting software such as wordpress for someone of my limited knowledge in that area.  So, to solve that problem, I've written a program to do that kind of thing for me - in a language, C++, that I do have experience with.  Well, here goes my test of the "Updating" function...

Update2:  We are back from the beach.  The family and I had a GREAT time!  Lots of miniature golf, swimming and eating.  The weather stayed nice until the very end - even though the forecast predicted showers during the latter part of the week.  Now back to blogging...



Filed under:  Website administration  The Blogging Caesar 



posted by Scott Elliott at 2:54pm 09/12/09::
Monday, September 7, 2009
Website rework underway
Please bear with me over the next week as I rework some aspects of the website.  Actually, I'm pretty much gutting most of it in favor of a simpler and more search-engine-optimized architecture.  But the look and feel won't change much to the reader.  Most of the changes are of the "behind-the-scenes" variety.  While the changes are ongoing, you may experience some broken links and other inconveniences.  Your patience is much appreciated during this transition.



Filed under:  Website administration 



posted by Scott Elliott at 12:31am 09/07/09 ::
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
US foreign policy way off toward Honduras
Some of you know that I spent several years as a teenager in Central America, mostly in Honduras.  The time there is a wonderful memory which I will always treasure.  Honduras and her people hold a special place in my heart.  One of the many characteristics I have always loved about the country is the people's desire for peace and representative government.  From my earliest recollections, Honduras has been a model of Latin American democracy.  But that admirable trait has landed it on the wrong side of the Obama administration and its brand of U.S. foreign policy.

Aided by the slanted, disingenuous coverage of our stateside media, Obama's team has been allowed to perpetuate a lie about recent events there which have tested Honduran resolve to maintain the democratic process they have come to cherish.  According to mainstream media accounts, this two-month-long saga has been an unjustified subjugation of democracy in which an overzealous military "rousted Honduran President Zelaya from his bed at gunpoint and whisked him away--in his pajamas--to Costa Rica."  Honduras is now, they say, "deeply divided" and, they warn, "could easily spin out of control."

In order to punish the wayward beneficiaries of the military coup, the United States government has threatened to suspend aid to Honduras, and the U.S State Department announced last week that it would provide only emergency Visa service at the U.S. embassy in Tegucigalpa.  No non-emergency Visa requests will be considered.

Hold on now!  How about a little dose of reality?  The truth about the "coup" differs enormously from the tales coming from the press and the White House.  But these tales persist, not because the truth has been hidden, but because they fit the socialist template these liberal strongholds require.  To find the truth, one need look no further than a detailed account provided by the new president of Honduras in a recent Wall Street Journal Op-ed.  In this brilliant, clear and methodical telling of the events leading up to President Zelaya's ouster, interim President Roberto Micheletti lays out exactly why Zelaya had to be removed.

You should go read the whole thing, but in case you don't, let me include here Micheletti's list of key undisputed facts.  I have highlighted for emphasis much of these important bullets.

  • The Supreme Court, by a 15-0 vote, found that Mr. Zelaya had acted illegally by proceeding with an unconstitutional "referendum," and it ordered the Armed Forces to arrest him.  The military executed the arrest order of the Supreme Court because it was the appropriate agency to do so under Honduran law.
  • Think about how many decisions our own Supreme Court reaches unanimously.  To frame this in terms we Americans might understand, this decision is akin to our Supreme Court ruling 9-0 for either Al Gore or George W. Bush in the Florida debacle during the presidential election in 2000.  And how much more legitimate could this verdict be considering a majority of the judges are from Zelaya's own party?
  • Eight of the 15 votes on the Supreme Court were cast by members of Mr. Zelaya's own Liberal Party.  Strange that the pro-Zelaya propagandists who talk about the rule of law forget to mention the unanimous Supreme Court decision with a majority from Mr. Zelaya's own party.  Thus, Mr. Zelaya's arrest was at the instigation of Honduran's constitutional and civilian authorities - not the military.
  • To say this was a coup orchestrated by a military out of control could not be more wrong.  The Honduran government took exactly the proper path to this end and did so under the full support of Honduran law.
  • The Honduran Congress voted overwhelmingly in support of removing Mr. Zelaya.  The vote included a majority of members of Mr. Zelaya's Liberal Party.
  • The Honduran legislature supported removing Zelaya from power - when would a majority of congressional Republicans support the impeachment of, say, George W. Bush?  Or when would a majority of congressional Democrats support the impeachment of, say, Barack Obama?  I'll tell you when - when it is beyond debate that either did something so wrong that the very foundation of our democracy could not withstand it.
  • Independent government and religious leaders and institutions - including the Supreme Electoral Tribunal, the Administrative Law Tribunal, the independent Human Rights Ombudsman, four-out-of-five political parties, the two major presidential candidates of the Liberal and National Parties, and Honduras' Catholic Cardinal - all agreed that Mr. Zelaya had acted illegally.
  • Illegally, yes, but so wrong that this drastic course of action was necessary?  Absolutely...
  • The constitution expressly states in Article 239 that any president who seeks to amend the constitution and extend his term is automatically disqualified and is no longer president.  There is no express provision for an impeachment process in the Honduran constitution.  But the Supreme Court's unanimous decision affirmed that Mr. Zelaya was attempting to extend his term with his illegal referendum.  Thus, at the time of his arrest he was no longer - as a matter of law, as far as the Supreme Court was concerned - president of Honduras.
  • Zelaya's actions constituted a breach of democracy so dire that they immediately rendered him Honduras' former president.  And that declaration comes directly from the constitution of Honduras.  So what kind of man would so blatantly trash his native land's democratic process?  This kind...
  • Days before his arrest, Mr. Zelaya had his chief of staff illegally withdraw millions of dollars in cash from the Central Bank of Honduras.
  • But where did this perverted thirst for power come from?  This total disregard for the rule of law?  Keep reading.
  • A day or so before his arrest, Mr. Zelaya led a violent mob to overrun an Air Force base to seize referendum ballots that had been shipped into Honduras by Hugo Chavez's Venezuelan government.
  • Therein lies the answer.  Zelaya's decent into Chavez-like behavior was ushered in by none other than Hugo Chavez, himself, America's loudest, foulest, and most brazen hater among the leaders of Latin America and friend of one, Barack Obama?  (The picture is becoming clear now, isn't it?)

    If you care to see just what measure of influence Chavez has had on Zelaya, you can read this article.  Chavez seduced the former right-of-center former president with the mother's milk of politics.  Again, my emphasis added.

    Zelaya took office in 2006 as the leader of one of the two center-right parties that have dominated Honduran politics for decades.  His general platform, his support for the Central American Free Trade Agreement with the United States and his alliances with business organizations gave no inkling of the fact that halfway into his term he would become a political cross-dresser.

    Suddenly, in 2007, he declared himself a socialist and began to establish close ties with Venezuela.  In December of that year, he incorporated Honduras into Petrocaribe, a mechanism set up by Hugo Chavez for lavishing oil subsidies on Latin American and Caribbean countries in exchange for political subservience.  Then his government joined the Bolivarian Alternative for Latin America and the Caribbean (ALBA), Venezuela's answer to the proposed Free Trade Area of the Americas, ostensibly a commercial alliance but in practice a political conspiracy that seeks to expand populist dictatorship to the rest of Latin America.

    Last year, following the script originally laid out by Chavez in Venezuela and adopted by Evo Morales in Bolivia and Rafael Correa in Ecuador, Zelaya announced that he would hold a referendum to set up a constituent assembly that would change the constitution that barred him from reelection.

    So what can we conclude from all this?  First, I believe a hearty handshake and pat on the back - as well as a heartfelt debt of democracy-driven gratitude - is owed to the Honduran government for their flawless handling of Zelaya's Chavez imitation.  At each step, they were right, proper and completely above reproach.  It is a pity that they and the people of Honduras must be subjected to retribution at our hand for such courageous and noble actions.

    Second, it's hard not to conclude that the Obama administration's foreign policy designs are firmly planted in cultivating solid, friendly relationships with socialist totalitarians.  President Zelaya, along with Mr. Chavez, looked to be another potential member of Obama's diplomatic inner circle.  Now that the democratic process in Honduras has attempted to remove that possibility, Obama's government seems ready to use whatever it can to restore Zelaya to the socialist dictatorial fold.

    As I end, let me insert the last bullet in President Micheletti's list of undisputed facts.

  • I succeeded Mr. Zelaya under the Honduran constitution's order of succession (our vice president had resigned before all of this began so that he could run for president). This is and has always been an entirely civilian government. The military was ordered by an entirely civilian Supreme Court to arrest Mr. Zelaya. His removal was ordered by an entirely civilian and elected Congress. To suggest that Mr. Zelaya was ousted by means of a military coup is demonstrably false.
  • But it, nevertheless, continues to be the falsehood of choice for Obama and the American media.



    Filed under:  Honduras  President Obama  Foreign Policy  Hugo Chavez



    posted by Scott Elliott at 10:31pm 09/01/09 ::
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