|It has been a while since I've posted anything here at Election Projection. In the interim, several polls have been released testing the Virginia governor's race between Democrat Terry McAuliffe and
Republican Ken Cuccinelli. A brief look at the numbers shows little has changed
over the last month. McAuliffe continues to maintain a small but undeniable lead.
But the race has yet to be decided. At 44.6% aggregate, the Democrat can hardly breathe easy. Several factors keep the outcome of this race in doubt. First, undecideds still make up
a good percentage of likely voters - well into double-digits in multiple recent polls. How they break could shrink McAuliffe's advantage.
Second, Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis is pulling in the neighborhood of 10% support in polls in which he is included as a candidate. Past results have shown third-party candidates rarely achieve
their pre-election polling numbers on Election Day. How his supporters end up voting will also impact the final margin.
Finally, it's all about turnout. In an odd-year election such as this, turnout can be the biggest wildcard - and it can produce some unexpected results.
All this said, the mathematical picture of this race bears an unmistakable light blue hue, and a Cucinelli win, at this point at least, must be considered an upset.
2013 Virginia Governor's Election
posted by Scott Elliott at 9:10pm 09/17/13::