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  Politics and Elections
   2012 Presidential Election
Thursday, August 23, 2012

EP update for August 23 - Florida moves to Romney's column, Akin still leads...for now
The cycling of national presidential polls impacts the projection in Florida today.  A Reuters/Ipsos survey showing President Obama with a commanding 7-point lead eased passed its expiration date as did a Fox News poll which gave the President an even larger 9-point advantage.  The more recent polls testing Obama vs. Romney have shown a very tight race - including a new Fox News poll with Romney ahead by a single point.  All this reduces Obama's edge in the national head-to-head component of my projections and shifts Florida back into Romney's column.  Despite the additional 29 electoral votes, though, the Republican challenger still trails by 68 EVs.

On the Senate front, Missouri Republican Todd Akin's prospects took a 180 degree turn for the worse this week, and polls are starting to show the proof.  Rasmussen published their first poll out of Missouri since Akin's catastrophe.  Embattled Democratic incumbent Claire McCaskill must be elated by the 10-point lead she now enjoys in the poll.  (Or perhaps this will be what Akin needs to understand how dead his candidacy is now and drop out.)  That poll by itself, however, is not quite enough to overcome an 11-point Akin lead in a SurveyUSA poll released before the catastrophe.  But with his lead now just 0.7% in the projections, I'm confident the next poll will paint Missouri blue on Election Projection's Senate map.

August 22 Election Projection Update
  Electoral Votes Current Previous Change
  Barack Obama 303 332 -29
  Mitt Romney 235 206 +29
  Party switchers:  Florida - 29 EVs
 
  Popular Vote Current Previous Change
  Barack Obama 49.5 50.1 -0.6
  Mitt Romney 48.9 48.4 +0.5
  Party switchers:  Florida - Romney +1.2%
 
  U.S. Senate Current Previous Change
  Republicans 51 51 no change
  Democrats 47 47 no change
  Independents 2 2 no change
  Party switchers:  none
 
  U.S. House Current Previous Change
  Republicans 241 241 no change
  Democrats 194 194 no change
  Party switchers:  none
 
  Governors Current Previous Change
  Republicans 32 32 no change
  Democrats 17 17 no change
  Independents 1 1 no change
  Party switchers:  none
 
Next update will be Saturday.



Filed under: Florida Presidential Race  Missouri Senate Race  2012 Projection Updates  Senate '12  2012 Presidential Election 



posted by Scott Elliott at 9:26pm 08/23/12::
Monday, August 20, 2012
One week from the Republican National Convention, race is remarkably stable
Next week, the Republican National Convention will officially nominate Mitt Romney as the Republican nominee for president.  I expect the customary bounce in his numbers toward the end of next week.  And I also expect those numbers to recede as the Democratic National Convention takes center stage the following week.  These movements will present a much more volatile picture of the presidential election than we've seen over the last several weeks.

National head-to-head polls have stayed within a very narrow range, especially when you isolate each polling firms numbers.  President Obama's job approval numbers have similarly stayed mostly static in the mid to upper 40's.  I read this stability as a sign that the electorate has yet to make up its mind about Obama's presidency - which is very common at this stage of the election season.  His job approval numbers suggest vulnerability, but his persistent lead in head-to-head polls highlight Romney's challenge in unseating the incumbent.

Once September rolls around, we could start to see an upward or downward trend in Obama's re-election chances as the electorate makes up its mind.  On the other hand, perhaps the verdict will be a split decision.  In that case, the numbers could limp along at the current level until Election Day and give us a nail-biter night watching the returns come in on November 6 - even well into the morning of November 7!



Filed under: Republican National Convention  2012 Presidential Election 



posted by Scott Elliott at 11:04am 08/20/12::
Thursday, August 16, 2012
EP update for August 16 - Purple polls show tight battleground races
Purple Strategies, a bipartisan organization, is periodically polling 12 battleground states this year.  Yesterday, they released their latest round of surveys for a subset of four states.  Appropriate to their name, the picture their polls paint is very purple, indeed, with Romney holding onto tiny leads in Florida, Ohio and Virginia and Obama ahead by a similar margin in Colorado.  Adding these polls to the calculations leaves the Electoral College projection unchanged.  An interesting tidbit from the poll is that, overall, Romney enjoys a substantial 11-point lead among independents.

We have another Rasmussen poll today relegated to outlier status.  This one comes out of Ohio where Rasmussen says the Senate race between Democrat Sherrod Brown, the incumbent, and Republican Josh Mandel is tied.  The other two polls in the calculations give Brown double-digit leads.  That means I have to consider Rasmussen's survey an outlier - and, frankly, it's not even close.

Let me offer a word to my fellow conservatives.  I understand that Rasmussen's polls measure likely voters while most of the rest only measure registered voters.  I also believe Rasmussen's polls to be closer to the actual sentiment of the electorate out there.  That said, I have instituted an outlier test that I must adhere to - even when the outlying poll mirrors my preference for a given race.  Don't worry, though, just as in 2010, the rest of the crowd will migrate toward Rasmussen's view before the votes are cast.  In order to maintain legitimacy, they must.

August 16 Election Projection Update
  Electoral Votes Current Previous Change
  Barack Obama 332 332 no change
  Mitt Romney 206 206 no change
  Party switchers:  none
 
  Popular Vote Current Previous Change
  Barack Obama 49.9 50.0 -0.1
  Mitt Romney 48.6 48.5 +0.1
  Party switchers:  none
 
  U.S. Senate Current Previous Change
  Republicans 50 50 no change
  Democrats 48 48 no change
  Independents 2 2 no change
  Party switchers:  none
 
  U.S. House Current Previous Change
  Republicans 240 240 no change
  Democrats 196 196 no change
  Party switchers:  none
 
  Governors Current Previous Change
  Republicans 32 32 no change
  Democrats 17 17 no change
  Independents 1 1 no change
  Party switchers:  none
 
Next update will be tomorrow.



Filed under: Ohio Senate Race  Colorado Presidential Race  Florida Presidential Race  Ohio Presidential Race  Virginia Presidential Race  2012 Projection Updates  2012 Presidential Election  Polling firms 



posted by Scott Elliott at 9:59am 08/16/12::
Wednesday, August 15, 2012
EP update for August 15 - Obama approval rebounds, still no impact on the projections
A couple of days ago, when President Barack Obama's approval dipped to 43% in both the Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls, I opined that he was in serious danger of losing his re-election bid.  To be sure, come early November, if his approval is south of 45%, he will lose.  However, as any casual political observer would surely recognize, I was not declaring his campaign dead in the water.  Dips and peaks in presidential approval are a part of our political economy, and your guess is as good as mine where his final pre-election approval rating will be.

I offer these comments in response to some peculiar emails from readers after Saturday's update post.  One in particular scolded me for not mentioning the other, older, polls giving the President better numbers (49% is still in the danger zone, by the way), and then mockingly called for me to issue a mea culpa after Obama's Gallup and Rasmussen numbers improved in the days since.

Apparently, he mistook the principle I was putting forth - that job approval is the clearest indication of an incumbent's re-electability - for a prediction of an impending Obama defeat.  No such prediction was my intention.  I was merely pointing out that the President is quite vulnerable.  And so he is - the vast majority of approval polls over the last several weeks has pegged his approval below 50%.  I assure you - that's not where an incumbent president wants to be three months before Election Day.

His job approval can and will fluctuate many times between now and November 6 - though not as much as head-to-head polls tend to.  It may even rise above that critical 50% mark by then.  Or it could recede into the low 40's.  Either way, I suspect even his own team breathed anxiously to see not one, but two polls giving him such a low approval number. 

August 15 Election Projection Update
  Electoral Votes Current Previous Change
  Barack Obama 332 332 no change
  Mitt Romney 206 206 no change
  Party switchers:  none
 
  Popular Vote Current Previous Change
  Barack Obama 50.0 49.7 +0.3
  Mitt Romney 48.5 48.8 -0.3
  Party switchers:  none
 
  U.S. Senate Current Previous Change
  Republicans 50 50 no change
  Democrats 48 48 no change
  Independents 2 2 no change
  Party switchers:  none
 
  U.S. House Current Previous Change
  Republicans 240 240 no change
  Democrats 196 196 no change
  Party switchers:  none
 
  Governors Current Previous Change
  Republicans 32 32 no change
  Democrats 17 17 no change
  Independents 1 1 no change
  Party switchers:  none
 
Next update will be tomorrow.



Filed under: 2012 Projection Updates  2012 Presidential Election 



posted by Scott Elliott at 11:11am 08/15/12::
Tuesday, August 14, 2012
Florida, Connecticut, Wisconsin and Minnesota primary results - updated3
I'll be posting a link to the results for the 4 states holding primary elections today sometime this evening.  I'll also be updating Election Projection's pages for the races I'm tracking in these states.  You'll find here a list of those races with links.  EP's projection pages are an invaluable resource for anyone interested in how Election 2012 will turn out.

Connecticut

Florida

Minnesota

Wisconsin

If you are new to Election Projection, welcome!  This website is dedicated to providing objective projections of upcoming elections.  I have been projecting since 2004.  You can check out my results so far as well as the formulas I use to calculate the numbers.

Take a look around.  If you're a political numbers junkie like me - or even if you're just wondering how the election is going - you'll love all the maps and charts and figures you'll find here.  To get you going, here are several pages you might like to check out:

Also, in the right sidebar, you'll find EP's "2012 Election On Demand" section.  Use this feature to navigate quickly to the projection page for any of the over 160 races tracked here.  And be sure to come back to Election Projection often to see how the numbers are moving.

Update (8:45pm):  Results are starting to come in now in Connecticut and Florida where Linda McMahon and Connie Mack have been declared the winners in their respective GOP Senate primaries.

Update2 (10:30pm):  In Wisconsin, Tommy Thompson leads Eric Hovde by 3% with 31% reporting in the GOP Senate primary.  Mark Neumann is 11 points back - looks like this won't be another Tea Party surprise.  You can track the rest of the results here.

Update3 (11:00am 8/15):  The winners have been decided in all the races I'll be tracking here.  I'll be updating the individual race pages to reflect the primary outcomes in the next day or two.



Filed under: Connecticut Presidential Race  Connecticut Senate Race  Connecticut House District 5 Race  Florida Presidential Race  Florida Senate Race  Florida House District 2 Race  Florida House District 9 Race  Florida House District 18 Race  Florida House District 22 Race  Florida House District 26 Race  Minnesota Presidential Race  Minnesota Senate Race  Minnesota House District 8 Race  Wisconsin Presidential Race  Wisconsin Senate Race  Wisconsin House District 7 Race  Wisconsin House District 8 Race  2012 Presidential Election  Senate '12  2012 House  2012 Governors 



posted by Scott Elliott at 10:46am 08/14/12::
Saturday, August 11, 2012
Paul Ryan, conservative for Vice President
A nominee's running mate pick means very little in the over all process of a presidential campaign.  Sure, it may dominate the headlines for a day or two, and it may be discussed non-stop for three or four on the talk shows.  But after the buzz dies down, the race for the White House always centers around the first name on the ticket, not the second.  This year will be little different - except for one thing.

By picking Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney may have accomplished something no amount of political advertising or stump speech rhetoric could.  His pick sends a tangible message, loud and clear, to his base.  Romney cannot win the presidency without, not just the vote of the conservative base, but their effort as well.  That's been his potential deal-breaker.  Could he convince conservatives that he's their guy?  Could he excite them enough to get them manning the phones, walking the neighborhoods and talking up his candidacy?

That will continue to be a concern for the man who was once pro-abortion and, like his opponent, has a health care plan named after him.  But in naming Ryan to be his running mate, Romney has advanced his conservative credentials as much as he possibly could have and, maybe, just maybe, given his conservative base something to work for.



Filed under: Mitt Romney  Paul Ryan  2012 Presidential Election 



posted by Scott Elliott at 7:46pm 08/11/12::
EP update for August 11 - Obama approval drops, Rasmussen poll back in
I'll have more on this later, but President Barack Obama, regardless of what the horse race polls say, is in serious danger of losing a second term.  Why?  I'll give you one number - 43.  That's Obama's job approval in both Gallup's and Rasmussen's latest tracking polls.  No president with that level of approval has ever won re-election since Gallup began polling three generations ago.  You can rest assured, if his approval stays below 45%, the other polls will eventually begin to paint the same dismal outlook for the incumbent.  After all, even the most agenda-driven polling firms will want to be reasonably close in the end.

On another note, I received a bunch of feedback yesterday for dropping Rasmussen's head-to-head tracking poll from my calculations.  Readers asserted that I preferred registered voter surveys over Rasmussen's likely voter poll.  They complained about the wildly unbalanced partisan makeup of the other polls.  And, frankly, the objections they raised were well-founded.  However, I was simply adhering to the policies regarding outlier polls that I drew up in hopes of eliminating in the first place the very kind of poll folks complained about me using.

Well, a couple of shifts have brought Rasmussen's poll back into the projection.  First, Romney closed Obama's previous two-point lead to a 46-46 tie in the latest version of Gallup's own tracking poll.  Second, Romney's 4-point lead in yesterday's Rasmussen poll was cut in half today.  I hope and expect yesterday's exclusion to be the one and only for Rasmussen, but, on the other hand, I will continue to adhere to the outlier test I have instituted even if it means relegating Rasmussen to the bench for a time.

August 11 Election Projection Update
  Electoral Votes Current Previous Change
  Barack Obama 332 332 no change
  Mitt Romney 206 206 no change
  Party switchers:  none
 
  Popular Vote Current Previous Change
  Barack Obama 49.6 50.6 -1.0
  Mitt Romney 48.9 47.9 +1.0
  Party switchers:  none
 
  U.S. Senate Current Previous Change
  Republicans 50 50 no change
  Democrats 48 48 no change
  Independents 2 2 no change
  Party switchers:  none
 
  U.S. House Current Previous Change
  Republicans 240 240 no change
  Democrats 196 196 no change
  Party switchers:  none
 
  Governors Current Previous Change
  Republicans 32 32 no change
  Democrats 17 17 no change
  Independents 1 1 no change
  Party switchers:  none
 
Next update will be Monday.



Filed under: 2012 Projection Updates  2012 Presidential Election  Polling firms 



posted by Scott Elliott at 5:49pm 08/11/12::
Friday, August 10, 2012
EP update for August 10 - Oh my! Rasmussen's poll an outlier
With a barrage of polls coming out in recent days showing President Barack Obama charging toward a double-digit lead, Rasmussen Reports is moving in the opposite direction.  Their head-to-head tracking poll gives Mitt Romney a 4-point edge in today's update.  That is so far out of the consensus of other polling firms that it fails my outlier test.  As a result, Rasmussen is not in today's head-to-head polling calculations.  Moreover, the new polling data has caused the laughable Pew Research poll from late July to no longer be considered an outlier - even though it included a +19 Democrat sampling advantage.

The impact, as expected, widens Obama's projected popular vote margin to 2.7%, the largest lead he has enjoyed this year.  The changes have not, however, impacted the projected Electoral College result.  That count remains 332-206.  I believe this is a strong indication that we're currently at the top of Obama's potential performance.  In fact, don't be surprised if this is the absolute high point for him in both the popular and electoral vote projections this year.

August 10 Election Projection Update
  Electoral Votes Current Previous Change
  Barack Obama 332 332 no change
  Mitt Romney 206 206 no change
  Party switchers:  none
 
  Popular Vote Current Previous Change
  Barack Obama 50.6 49.3 +1.3
  Mitt Romney 47.9 49.1 -1.2
  Party switchers:  none
 
  U.S. Senate Current Previous Change
  Republicans 50 50 no change
  Democrats 48 48 no change
  Independents 2 2 no change
  Party switchers:  none
 
  U.S. House Current Previous Change
  Republicans 240 240 no change
  Democrats 196 196 no change
  Party switchers:  none
 
  Governors Current Previous Change
  Republicans 32 32 no change
  Democrats 17 17 no change
  Independents 1 1 no change
  Party switchers:  none
 
Next update will be tomorrow.



Filed under: 2012 Projection Updates  2012 Presidential Election  Polling firms 



posted by Scott Elliott at 11:04am 08/10/12::
Tuesday, August 7, 2012
EP update for August 7 - Obama regains lead in popular vote projection
For several days now, President Barack Obama has trailed in the projected popular vote here at Election Projection even while commanding a sizeable lead in the Electoral College.  That inconsistency highlights a structural advantage he enjoys in the way electoral votes are dispersed across the nation.  In today's update, however, we see him vaulting past Mitt Romney in that largely insignificant metric.  His 0.2% lead is due to a slight uptick in job approval numbers, particularly in Rasmussen's tracking poll where his approval has reached 49%.
August 7 Election Projection Update
  Electoral Votes Current Previous Change
  Barack Obama 332 332 no change
  Mitt Romney 206 206 no change
  Party switchers:  none
 
  Popular Vote Current Previous Change
  Barack Obama 49.3 49.1 +0.2
  Mitt Romney 49.1 49.4 -0.3
  Party switchers:  none
 
  U.S. Senate Current Previous Change
  Republicans 50 50 no change
  Democrats 48 48 no change
  Independents 2 2 no change
  Party switchers:  none
 
  U.S. House Current Previous Change
  Republicans 240 239 +1
  Democrats 195 196 -1
  Party switchers:  Illinois CD-12
 
  Governors Current Previous Change
  Republicans 32 32 no change
  Democrats 17 17 no change
  Independents 1 1 no change
  Party switchers:  none
 
Next update will be Thursday.



Filed under: 2012 Projection Updates  2012 Presidential Election 



posted by Scott Elliott at 9:10pm 08/07/12::
Thursday, August 2, 2012
EP update for August 2 - Florida flips again; movement in the House
Quinnipiac paints very blue picture
Yesterday, I reported that a Public Policy Polling survey turned Florida red even though it showed President Obama ahead by one.  That flip turned out to be quite brief.  A Quinnipiac poll released just hours after I published yesterday's update gives Obama a much bluer 51-45 advantage and shifts the Sunshine State back into his column.  As a result, he reclaims the 332-206 electoral vote lead he held here at Election Projection before yesterday.

Quinnipiac's blue brush didn't stop in Florida, and it wasn't limited to the presidential race.  In Pennsylvania and Ohio, the university found Obama ahead by comfortable margins, 11 and 6 points, respectively.  And the senate races in the three battleground states also give Democrats something to cheer.  All three feature Democratic incumbents who enjoy leads ranging from comfortable (seven points for Bill Nelson in Florida) to very comfortable (12 points for Sherrod Brown in Ohio) to landslide numbers (18 points for Bob Casey in Pennsylvania).

Partisan polls shake up House projections
Several House polls came to my attention today, all of them partisan, most of them from Democratic polling firms, and two of them that caused seats to flip.  For the Democrats, a poll conducted for incumbent Mike McIntyre shows him with a very large 53-34 lead in North Carolina's CD-7 race.  The lopsided survey is more than enough to compensate for pundit predictions of a Republican takeover - even after EP's adjustment for partisan House polls is applied.

McIntyre's good fortunes are offset by his Republican colleague representing New York's 19th district.  The consensus of EP's panel of pundits is that Congressman Chris Gibson is very vulnerable, but polling from both parties seems to oppose that view.  His challenger, Democrat Julian Schreibman, released a poll last week showing Gibson ahead by "only" 10.  Gibson's campaign countered with an internal polling giving him a larger 17 point advantage.  The two polls move NY-19 from a weak DEM gain to a mod GOP hold.

Cruz wins runoff in Texas
On Tuesday, Tea Party favorite Ted Cruz culminated a notable comeback by taking the Republican nomination in the open Texas Senate race.  He now faces Democrat Paul Sadler in what should be a non-competitive contest.  I've updated EP's Texas Senate election page and Texas House District 23 election page to reflect the runoff results.

August 2 Election Projection Update
  Electoral Votes Current Previous Change
  Barack Obama 332 332 no change
  Mitt Romney 206 206 no change
  Party switchers:  none
 
  Popular Vote Current Previous Change
  Barack Obama 49.1 49.2 -0.1
  Mitt Romney 49.4 49.3 +0.1
  Party switchers:  none
 
  U.S. Senate Current Previous Change
  Republicans 50 50 no change
  Democrats 48 48 no change
  Independents 2 2 no change
  Party switchers:  none
 
  U.S. House Current Previous Change
  Republicans 239 239 no change
  Democrats 196 196 no change
  Party switchers:  New York CD-19, North Carolina CD-7
 
  Governors Current Previous Change
  Republicans 32 32 no change
  Democrats 17 17 no change
  Independents 1 1 no change
  Party switchers:  none
 
Next update will be tomorrow.



Filed under: Florida Presidential Race  Texas Senate Race  Texas House District 23 Race  Florida Senate Race  Pennsylvania Presidential Race  Pennsylvania Senate Race  Ohio Presidential Race  Ohio Senate Race  2012 Projection Updates  2012 Presidential Election  2012 GOP Primaries 



posted by Scott Elliott at 12:36am 08/02/12::
Wednesday, August 1, 2012
EP update for August 1 - When a blue poll turns a state red
When a SurveyUSA poll came out a couple weeks ago showing President Barack Obama ahead in Florida by 5 points over Mitt Romney, the Sunshine State shed its red coat in favor of a blue one.  Today, though, Florida has put that red coat back on.  Did Romney poll ahead of Obama in a new survey?  Actually, the latest poll, a Public Policy Polling release, gives the President a one-point lead in Florida.

But, since it replaces a Quinnipiac poll in which Obama enjoyed a four-point advantage, Romney gained ground.  And when the numbers are as close as they are in many of these battleground states, it doesn't take much to flip them.  That's what happened today.  Removing three points from the Obama's raw polling edge shifts the projection for him from a scant 0.1% lead to a 0.3% deficit.

The switch isn't enough to change the Presidents status as the leader in the Electoral College.  To the contrary, Obama is still projected to win over 303 electoral votes and a comfortable victory - despite the fact that Romney continues to the lead the projected popular vote.

August 1 Election Projection Update
  Electoral Votes Current Previous Change
  Barack Obama 303 332 -29
  Mitt Romney 235 206 +29
  Party switchers:  Florida (29 EVs)
 
  Popular Vote Current Previous Change
  Barack Obama 49.2 49.2 no change
  Mitt Romney 49.3 49.3 no change
  Party switchers:  Florida (Romney +0.3%)
 
  U.S. Senate Current Previous Change
  Republicans 50 50 no change
  Democrats 48 48 no change
  Independents 2 2 no change
  Party switchers:  none
 
  U.S. House Current Previous Change
  Republicans 239 239 no change
  Democrats 196 196 no change
  Party switchers:  none
 
  Governors Current Previous Change
  Republicans 32 32 no change
  Democrats 17 17 no change
  Independents 1 1 no change
  Party switchers:  none
 
Next update will be tomorrow.



Filed under: Florida Presidential Race  2012 Projection Updates  2012 Presidential Election  Polling firms 



posted by Scott Elliott at 12:01am 08/01/12::
Tuesday, July 24, 2012
EP update for July 24 - light blue states abound
Historically, a sitting president has been difficult to defeat, and President Obama will be no exception.  However, even though he leads Election Projection's electoral vote count by a comfortable margin, 332-206, his advantage is far from comfortable.  A closer look at the numbers reveals no less than eleven states currently rated "Weak Obama."  These states represent 141 EVs, 77 more than Republican Mitt Romney needs to gain the majority.  Florida, Ohio and Virginia are presumed to be must wins for the challenger, and he'll need one more state beyond that to get to 270, the electoral votes needed to win the White House.

Eleven states rated "Weak Obama" today

  • Colorado (9)
  • Florida (29)
  • Iowa (6)
  • Michigan (16)
  • Minnesota (10)
  • Nevada (6)
  • New Hampshire (4)
  • Ohio (18)
  • Pennsylvania (20)
  • Virginia (13)
  • Wisconsin (10)
July 24 Election Projection Update
  Electoral Votes Current Previous Change
  Barack Obama 332 332 no change
  Mitt Romney 206 206 no change
  Party switchers: Florida (29 EVs)
 
  Popular Vote Current Previous Change
  Barack Obama 49.2 49.2 no change
  Mitt Romney 49.3 49.3 no change
  Party switchers: Florida (Obama +0.1%)
 
  U.S. Senate Current Previous Change
  Republicans 52 52 no change
  Democrats 46 46 no change
  Independents 2 2 no change
  Party switchers: Florida
 
  U.S. House Current Previous Change
  Republicans 239 239 no change
  Democrats 196 196 no change
  Party switchers: none
 
  Governors Current Previous Change
  Republicans 33 33 no change
  Democrats 16 16 no change
  Independents 1 1 no change
  Party switchers: none
 
Next update will be Thursday.



Filed under: Colorado Presidential Race  Florida Presidential Race  Iowa Presidential Race  Michigan Presidential Race  Minnesota Presidential Race  Nevada Presidential Race  Ohio Presidential Race  Pennsylvania Presidential Race  Virginia Presidential Race  Wisconsin Presidential Race  2012 Projection Updates  2012 Presidential Election 



posted by Scott Elliott at 11:08am 07/24/12::
Monday, July 23, 2012
EP update for July 23 - Florida flips both ways
After much delay, I finally have a new EP update posted.  The Sunshine State takes center stage today with two different races sporting new colors.  Interestingly, the two races flipped in opposite directions.  The presidential race is now projected to go to President Obama while the Senate race favors the Republican challenger, Connie Mack over incumbent Bill Nelson.

At the heart of these changes is SurveyUSA.  The prominent polling firm offers two vastly different views of the partisan situation in Florida.  In the presidential race, they show Obama ahead by 5 points over Mitt Romney.  That's the largest margin for the President in over a month and moves Florida's 29 electoral votes back into the incumbent's column.  Only North Carolina and Indiana remain as gains for Romney over John McCain's 2008 result.

On the other hand, SurveyUSA gives Mack a 6 point lead in the Senate race.  The spread in that race provides enough change in the aggregate to bring last week's Rasmussen outlier poll back into the calculations and moves Mack ahead of Nelson in the projections.  You can see an explanation of the outlier test on the 2012 Election Projection Formula page.

One more note before I close today's post.  Romney leads the popular vote by 0.1% but trails in the all-important electoral vote count.  But that's not all.  He gained the advantage even while losing ground in EVs.  That's just another sign of the inconsistency between national and state polling in the presidential race.  It also highlights, in this prognosticator's view, the vulnerability of the President.  Unless history is changing, Obama's national job approval and head-to-head numbers portend an incumbent headed for defeat and bring the accuracy of state polling into question.

July 23 Election Projection Update
  Electoral Votes Current Previous Change
  Barack Obama 332 303 +29
  Mitt Romney 206 235 -29
  Party switchers: Florida (29 EVs)
 
  Popular Vote Current Previous Change
  Barack Obama 49.2 49.2 no change
  Mitt Romney 49.3 49.2 +0.1
  Party switchers: Florida (Obama +0.1%)
 
  U.S. Senate Current Previous Change
  Republicans 52 51 +1
  Democrats 46 47 -1
  Independents 2 2 no change
  Party switchers: Florida
 
  U.S. House Current Previous Change
  Republicans 239 239 no change
  Democrats 196 196 no change
  Party switchers: none
 
  Governors Current Previous Change
  Republicans 33 33 no change
  Democrats 16 16 no change
  Independents 1 1 no change
  Party switchers: none
 
Next update will be tomorrow.



Filed under: Florida Presidential Race  Florida Senate Race  2012 Projection Updates  2012 Presidential Election  Senate '12  Polling firms 



posted by Scott Elliott at 2:12pm 07/23/12::
Wednesday, July 18, 2012
EP update for July 18 - The popular vote projection is tied
This is going to be a short write-up today since very little has changed in the numbers since yesterday.  The one thing I will point out is that today's numbers show a projected tie in the popular vote between President Obama and Mitt Romney.  Obama retains the projected Electoral College advantage by a 303-235 count, highlighting the fact that Obama may not have to get the majority of the popular vote to win the majority of electoral votes.
July 18 Election Projection Update
  Electoral Votes Current Previous Change
  Barack Obama 303 303 no change
  Mitt Romney 235 235 no change
  Party switchers: none
 
  Popular Vote Current Previous Change
  Barack Obama 49.2 49.4 -0.2
  Mitt Romney 49.2 49.0 +0.2
  Party switchers: none
 
  U.S. Senate Current Previous Change
  Republicans 51 51 no change
  Democrats 47 47 no change
  Independents 2 2 no change
  Party switchers: none
 
  U.S. House Current Previous Change
  Republicans 239 239 no change
  Democrats 196 196 no change
  Party switchers: none
 
  Governors Current Previous Change
  Republicans 33 33 no change
  Democrats 16 16 no change
  Independents 1 1 no change
  Party switchers: none
 
Next update will be Friday. There will be no update tomorrow due to my family traveling.



Filed under: 2012 Projection Updates  2012 Presidential Election 



posted by Scott Elliott at 11:13am 07/18/12::
Monday, July 16, 2012
EP update for July 16 - It doesn't take much to move 'em when they're so close
With a new round of national polls, both presidential job approval and head-to-head, and the natural cycling out of older polls, the projected popular vote shifts just one tenth of one percent toward President Obama.  But when battleground states like Ohio are so razor close, that itty bitty move can impact the projection in substantial ways.

Case in point:  Ohio's 18 electoral votes were in Mitt Romney's column yesterday by 0.03%.  Today, you'll find them in Obama's.  He is now projected to win Ohio by 0.06%.  Interesting how a move of just 0.1% in the projection can flip the state, but that's the nature of the projecting game when one refuses to allow toss-ups.

I've had feedback from some readers that I should resort to leaving close races uncalled.  That's something I will not do.  My main objective with this website is to paint a picture of how the election would turn out if it were held today.  Elections don't generally end without a winner.  So, you'll never see a race without a winner in the projections here at Election Projection.

July 16 Election Projection Update
  Electoral Votes Current Previous Change
  Barack Obama 303 285 +18
  Mitt Romney 235 253 -18
  Party switchers: Ohio (18 EVs)
 
  Popular Vote Current Previous Change
  Barack Obama 49.5 49.4 +0.1
  Mitt Romney 49.0 49.1 -0.1
  Party switchers: Ohio (Obama +0.06%)
 
  U.S. Senate Current Previous Change
  Republicans 51 51 no change
  Democrats 47 47 no change
  Independents 2 2 no change
  Party switchers: none
 
  U.S. House Current Previous Change
  Republicans 240 240 no change
  Democrats 195 195 no change
  Party switchers: none
 
  Governors Current Previous Change
  Republicans 33 33 no change
  Democrats 16 16 no change
  Independents 1 1 no change
  Party switchers: none
 
Next update will be tomorrow.



Filed under: Ohio Presidential Race  2012 Projection Updates  2012 Presidential Election 



posted by Scott Elliott at 9:21am 07/16/12::
Wednesday, July 11, 2012
EP update for July 11 - the return of the outlier
After a week of scarcity on the polling front, a barrage of national polls was released yesterday.  Among those is a Reuters/Ipsos poll that gives President Obama a six-point lead in the national horserace between him and Mitt Romney.  And this even while the President's job approval number has dropped to 44% according to Gallup, the lowest it's been, except for one day in June, since March.  In fact, the other four head-to-head polls released yesterday give Romney a one-point aggregate lead.  Reuters' numbers are representative of the dreaded outlier.  And yet, the poll is not so out of line that I can justify removing it from the calculations.  The good news is that including the Reuters poll does not alter the projected electoral vote count - a strong testimony to the power of poll aggregation in projecting election outcomes.

Speaking of election outcomes, today's numbers actually project Romney to win the popular vote, 49-3%-49.1%, even while Obama takes the Electoral College, 285-253.  These projections illustrate the possibility in 2012 of a repeat of the 2000 elections where George W. Bush won the election even though Al Gore got more raw votes.  The big difference this time, of course, is that the Democrat, President Obama, appears to be the likely beneficiary if such a rarity should occur again this year.

One more interesting tidbit from yesterday's polling comes out of Wisconsin.  Public Policy Polling (D) conducted tests of the senate election there.  Surprisingly, to this prognosticator at least, Republican Eric Hovde leads his well-known Republican opponent, former Governor and presidential candidate Tommy Thompson, in the race for the GOP nomination.  Moreover, he also polls better than Thompson against the presumptive Democratic nominee, Tammy Baldwin.  I am currently using Thompson as the pick in my projection of this race.  That may need to change.  By the way, this isn't the first poll to show Hovde performing strongly against Thompson.

July 11 Election Projection Update
  Electoral Votes Current Previous Change
  Barack Obama 303 303 no change
  Mitt Romney 253 253 no change
  Party switchers: none
 
  Popular Vote Current Previous Change
  Barack Obama 49.1 49.4 -0.3
  Mitt Romney 49.3 49.1 +0.2
  Party switchers: none
 
  U.S. Senate Current Previous Change
  Democrats 48 48 no change
  Independents 2 2 no change
  Republicans 50 50 no change
  Party switchers: none
 
  U.S. House Current Previous Change
  Republicans 243 243 no change
  Democrats 195 195 no change
  Party switchers: none
 
  Governors Current Previous Change
  Republicans 33 33 no change
  Democrats 16 16 no change
  Independents 1 1 no change
  Party switchers: none
 
Next update will be tomorrow.



Filed under: Wisconsin Senate Race  2012 Projection Updates  2012 Presidential Election  Senate '12  Polling firms 



posted by Scott Elliott at 9:50am 07/11/12::
Tuesday, July 10, 2012
EP update for July 10 - expiring older polls move numbers today
On the Electoral College front today, we see a shift that is slight in span but large in impact.  Rasmussen and Gallup's tracking numbers are a bit more positive for Mitt Romney and older polls more favorable to Barack Obama moved past the two week shelf life for use in the calculations.  Consequently, Ohio is now projected to go to the challenger.  That's good news for Republicans, but it's not enough to flip the Electoral College tally in Romney's favor.  Moreover, with the margin at less than one-half of one percent, Ohio could easily slip back to the President's column next time.

The House projections experienced the same effect with an older poll showing the generic Democrat well ahead of the generic Republican expiring today.  Combine that with Rasmussen's latest weekly generic measure which gives Republicans a 3-point advantage in the congressional generic test, and you have just enough change to flip three prior Democratic gains back to Republican holds.  Again, though, it is important to note that all these seats - as well as several others - are teetering between red and blue by just a percentage point or two.  There's plenty of potential in the numbers, depending on how pundit ratings move, for the projected House tally to move considerably one way or another in the coming weeks, with a higher likelihood that such a movement would favor Democrats.

July 10 Election Projection Update
  Electoral Votes Current Previous Change
  Barack Obama 285 303 -18
  Mitt Romney 253 235 +18
  Party switchers: Ohio (18 EVs)
 
  Popular Vote Current Previous Change
  Barack Obama 49.4 49.5 -0.1
  Mitt Romney 49.1 48.9 +0.2
  Party switchers: Ohio (Romney +0.03%)
 
  U.S. Senate Current Previous Change
  Democrats 48 48 no change
  Independents 2 2 no change
  Republicans 50 50 no change
  Party switchers: none
 
  U.S. House Current Previous Change
  Republicans 243 240 +3
  Democrats 192 195 -3
  Party switchers: California CD-7, Minnesota CD-8, New York CD-19
 
  Governors Current Previous Change
  Republicans 33 33 no change
  Democrats 16 16 no change
  Independents 1 1 no change
  Party switchers: none
 
Next update will be tomorrow.



Filed under: Ohio Presidential Race  California House District 7 Race  Minnesota House District 8 Race  New York House District 19 Race  2012 Projection Updates  2012 Presidential Election 



posted by Scott Elliott at 10:39am 07/10/12::
Monday, July 9, 2012
EP update for July 9 - Lack of polls leads to little change
The numbers for today are posted.  As I mentioned this weekend, polls have been few and far between lately.  There's not much change to report as a result.  President Obama continues to maintain a small but persistent lead over Mitt Romney in the Electoral College while Republicans are still stuck on 50 projected senators.  They need 51 to claim the majority vote since Vice President Biden would cast the tie-breaking vote in the case of a 50-50 split vote.

The House projections show no changes either.  The panel of pundits I use to calculate projections there did not post any updates this week and the one House poll I found had no impact on the numbers.

There was one interesting poll from the statehouse races.  In North Carolina, Republican Pat McCrory's comfortable lead in most polls shrunk to just 2 points in the latest Civitas polls when Libertarian Barbara was added to the survey options.  I'll be keeping close watch on that one to see if the third-party candidate gives Democrat Walter Dalton an opening.

Today I'm introducing the following table which I will post with each day's update.  It should be a handy way for you to track the changes each new projection brings.

July 9 Election Projection Update
  Electoral Votes Current Previous Change
  Barack Obama 303 303 no change
  Mitt Romney 235 235 no change
  Party switchers: none
 
  Popular Vote Current Previous Change
  Barack Obama 49.5 49.5 no change
  Mitt Romney 48.9 49.0 -0.1
  Party switchers: none
 
  U.S. Senate Current Previous Change
  Democrats 48 48 no change
  Independents 2 2 no change
  Republicans 50 50 no change
  Party switchers: none
 
  U.S. House Current Previous Change
  Republicans 240 240 no change
  Democrats 195 195 no change
  Party switchers: none
 
  Governors Current Previous Change
  Republicans 33 33 no change
  Democrats 16 16 no change
  Independents 1 1 no change
  Party switchers: none
 




Filed under: North Carolina Governor Race  2012 Projection Updates  2012 Presidential Election 



posted by Scott Elliott at 8:50am 07/09/12::
Monday, June 25, 2012
Election Projection update for June 25
The effects of Bloomberg's outlier poll are fully felt in today's numbers.  Last week, they released a survey purporting to show Obama ahead of Romney by 13 points and the generic Democrat ahead of the generic Republican by 7.  Both counts are way outside of the norm.  In this same poll, Obama sports a 53% approval rating which is 5 points better than his average approval.

As a result of that poll, there are several party switchers today.  The Electoral College moves in Obama's direction with Florida, aided also by 4-point lead for Obama in the latest Quinnipiac poll, changing back to a projected hold for the President.  The EV count stands at 314-224 with Romney clinging to a 0.7% lead in Ohio.

The projected House count moves even more drastically toward the blue team.  Because so many races were projected to go to the Republican by a very small margin, the change in the composite generic number drew no less than six of them into the Democrats' column.  The last projection showed no net gain in the House tally; today's projection gives Democrats a net 6 seat gain.  The seats changing colors today are CA-52, NV-3, NY-18, OH-16, TX-23 and UT-4.  Utah CD-4 moves from a GOP takeover to a DEM hold.  The rest are new projected takeovers for the Democrats.



Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  2012 Projection Updates  FL President 2012  Florida 2012 



posted by Scott Elliott at 9:07am 06/25/12::
Sunday, June 3, 2012
Scott Walker Day of Reckoning just two days away
D-day is June 6.  But Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker has his own date with destiny of sorts the day before.  After a long, seemingly endless, wait, the Wisconsin recall election is now just two days away.  Tuesday, Wisconsin voters head to the polls.  At stake is a critical and pivotal battle between a sitting conservative governor in Republican Scott Walker and the incensed public employee unions whose power Walker has threatened.

In reality, while Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett's name is on the ballot, the real question to be answered Tuesday is whether fiscal responsibility can overcome entitlement mentality.  It is a struggle that will not end when the votes have been counted in Wisconsin Tuesday night.  Fiscal responsibility vs. entitlement mentality has been and will continue to be an overarching aspect of dozens of races across the country - including Barack Obama vs. Mitt Romney.

For that reason, it is hard to overstate the importance of Tuesday's outcome.  The side of the victor stands to gain momentum and strength, both in the resonance of their message and in the enthusiasm of their base.  It would certainly be a gross exaggeration to declare the outcome of the presidential election inexorably bound to this one, but I believe a strong indication of the mindset of the electorate will come out of the Wisconsin recall election, one that will impact the tenor of the campaign to the not insignificant advantage of one of the nominees.

The latest polls give Walker a close but consistent lead.  I'll post any last minute polls here sometime Monday night.  Also, check back here Tuesday night for the results.



Filed under:  Wisconsin Recall Election  Wisconsin 2012  WI Governor  2012 Presidential Election 



posted by Scott Elliott at 4:23pm 06/03/12::
Wednesday, May 30, 2012
Election Projection update for May 30
Big changes today, not so much in the polling numbers, but in the way I'm computing the projections.  The 2012 edition of Election Projection's formulas are posted for your inspection.  After much deliberation, I've made two major adjustments, one in the presidential formula and another in the House formula.

First, in the presidential formula, state polls will be given a variable weight depending on how many recent polls are available.  If one state poll qualifies for inclusion in the calculations, it will be weighed 30% of the total.  For each additional poll, the state polling component will be given another 10% weight, up to a maximum of 6 polls (or 80%).  The remaining weight will be split evenly between presidential job approval and national head-to-head polling.  One other minor adjustment was made to the formula.  Since Arizona Senator John McCain ran against Barack Obama in 2008, Mitt Romney will likely not fare as well in Arizona this year.  To compensate for that, a 2-point offset in favor of Obama will be added to the Arizona projection.

The second big change is contained in the new House formula.  It impacts the congressional generic composite offset.  In 2010, that offset was DEM +2 since conventional wisdom holds that a 2-point Democratic advantage in generic polling roughly equates to a status-quo election.  However, after the red wave swept across the House landscape that year, a status-quo election would represent more than a few Democratic takeovers.  As a result, I have moved this year's generic offset from DEM +2 to GOP +2.5.  The new value splits the difference between a DEM +2 advantage and last election's GOP +7 actual outcome.

As you can see from the latest House projections, this change has produced a substantial immediate effect.  Two days ago, the Republicans were projected to extend their House majority by 4 seats.  Today, the Democrats are projected to cut one seat from that majority.  In truth, the projection of one net gain for the blue team is probably much more likely than a few-seat gain by the GOP.

Interesting, the latest presidential projections barely nudged as a result of the new formula.  That said, as more state polls are conducted and released, I expect giving them progressively more weight will have significant impact - while still allowing for the president's national numbers to play a part.



Filed under:  2012 Projection Updates  2012 Presidential Election  2012 House  Website administration 



posted by Scott Elliott at 6:11pm 05/30/12::
Saturday, May 19, 2012
Election Projection update for May 19
Two strange trends continue to confuse me as we look at the latest numbers here at Election Projection.  The first involves President Obama's re-election bid against Republican Mitt Romney.  The second impacts the projected balance of power in the House of Representatives.

National polls vs. state polls - The president's job approval numbers have been hovering in the upper 40's over the last several months, a mark that historically puts Obama's re-election in jeopardy.  In addition, national preference polls measuring support for him and Romney show the race to be extremely close, easily within a couple points either way.  But polls from battleground states show no such horserace.  The table below illustrates the inconsistency.

Latest Battleground State Polls
  Polls Poll Margin 2008 Result Change
  National 1.8 7.3 -5.5
  North Carolina -1.0 0.3 -1.3
  Florida -1.0 2.8 -3.8
  Ohio 4.6 4.6 0
  Virginia 4.0 6.3 -2.3
  Colorado 6.5 9.0 -2.5
I haven't included Indiana here because Romney outperforms national polls in the only survey from the Hoosier state so far this year.

What we have listed here are the states Romney would need to carry to win the presidency in November.  As you can see, national polls would indicate Romney performing better in these battlegrounds than he actually is according to state polls.

House forecasts vs. generic congressional polls - Most pundits predict a slightly less Republican House for 2013.  Some are even weighing the odds of a Democratic takeover.  In other words, conventional wisdom says Democrats will gain seats in the House in November.  Is that an accurate assumption?

Reapportionment and redistricting this year provided a lot of partisan fireworks across the nation, but the end result was pretty much a wash.  That means neither party gained an advantage, so we'll need to trust the traditional measures, polls and pundit picks, to get a sense of what's in store.

Right now, as shown in this update, Republicans would be very happy with the results were the election to be held today.  Congressional generic polls favor the red team by an aggregate 2.4 points.  Combine that with mostly status quo predictions from our team of pundits, and you have the GOP gaining an additional 6 seats this year in the House - 2 more than last update.

As we move into the summer months, two questions emerge.  First, will Obama's performance nationally and in battleground states even out?  And second, will the electorate continue to favor a larger Republican House majority or will we eventually see Democratic gains materialize in the projections?



Filed under:  2012 Projection Updates  2012 Presidential Election  2012 House 



posted by Scott Elliott at 10:58pm 05/19/12::
Tuesday, May 15, 2012
Election Projection update for May 15
Three items to point out from today's projection update.  First, President Obama is back in the popular vote lead.  After falling behind Mitt Romney in last week's projection by 0.1%, he is now projected to garner 49.4% of the vote versus 49.1% for Romney.  His projected electoral vote majority remains unchanged at 303-235.

Second, the House becomes more Republican with the latest numbers.  Congressional generics continue to favor the GOP, in fact by a slightly larger margin than before.  As a result, two more seats flip sides today.  Rhode Island CD-1 is the newest projected GOP takeover while New Hampshire CD-2 moves back into the Republican hold category.

Finally, a huge gubernatorial recall election in Wisconsin is slated for June 5.  Polls give Republican incumbent Scott Walker a slight lead in the race.  Because I believe this is a critical election, I'll be posting more on it over the next 20 days.



Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  2012 Projection Updates  2012 House 



posted by Scott Elliott at 10:25pm 05/15/12::
Thursday, May 10, 2012
Election Projection update for May 10
The update I promised earlier is posted.  Barack Obama continues to lead the all-important electoral vote count, 303-235.  However, Romney's improved performance in national polls has moved the projected popular vote in his favor by a mere 0.1%.  With state polls still giving President Obama the lead in most battleground states, Romney is finding it hard to convert good national numbers into more battleground electoral votes.

In the House, new pundit ratings from Charlie Cook, Stuart Rothenberg and Larry Sabato were incorporated into the calculations.  Pennsylvania CD-12, fresh off a Democratic primary which saw one incumbent, Jason Altmire, lose to another, Mark Critz, is the only party switcher in today's House projections.  That flip moves the overall projected tally to 244-191, a net gain of two seats for the GOP.  Despite the conventional wisdom that says Democrats should pick up a handful of House seats this year, a compilation of generic congressional preference polls actually gives Republicans a slight edge at this point.



Filed under:  2012 Projection Updates  2012 Presidential Election  Pennsylvania 2012  PA House 2012 



posted by Scott Elliott at 10:27pm 05/10/12::
Thursday, May 3, 2012
Election Projection update
President Obama's standing improves in today's projection update.  Nationally, his job approval ticks up a bit this week, thanks in part to a 51% approval mark in today's Gallup tracking poll.  That's the first time the President's approval has surpassed 50% in almost a full year.  In addition, the majority of battleground state polls continue to favor Obama, including a couple that pull Virginia back into his column.  With Old Dominion's flip back to blue, the projected electoral vote count moves to 303-235.  The popular vote projection now stands at 49.6% for Obama to 48.8% for Mitt Romney.



Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  2012 Projection Updates 



posted by Scott Elliott at 9:37pm 05/03/12::
Monday, April 30, 2012
Election Projection update
There's good news for both sides in the latest numbers here at Election Projection.  Republicans will be happy that Obama's lead in the presidential race has shrunk with this update.  Virginia is now light red, and its 13 EVs moving from President Obama to Mitt Romney leaves the projected tally at 290-248 in favor of the incumbent.  That's good news for Democrats.  Despite the fact that Obama's job approval and his national poll scores remain under 50%, he continues to lead the 2012 race for the White House.

In more good news for Republicans, the Virginia senate race is now projected to go to former Senator George Allen as well.  With another seat in the red column, the GOP is projected to take the majority in the Senate by a 51-47-2 count.

There is more good news to be had for Democrats, too, however.  Two House seats sport a brand new blue color.  One, Rhode Island CD-1, has returned to a DEM Hold; another, New Hampshire CD-2, is the latest projected takeover for the blue team.  Overall, these two party-switchers bring the projected balance of power in the House to 243-192, a net 1-seat gain for the GOP.



Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  Senate '12  2012 House  Virginia 2012  VA President 2012  VA Senate 2012 



posted by Scott Elliott at 10:49pm 04/30/12::
Monday, April 23, 2012
5 GOP presidential primaries on tap tomorrow
After a couple weeks off, voters in 5 more states get the opportunity tomorrow to cast ballots for the Republican presidential nomination.  The shooting match is over now that Rick Santorum is no longer running, but the formalities continue.  For those still watching, primary results for Delaware, Connecticut, New York, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island will start coming in tomorrow evening.

New York and Pennsylvania are both large delegate caches.  Before Santorum's decision to suspend his campaign, the Keystone State was looking like a very interesting, very competitive contest, a "last stand" of sorts for Santorum in his home state.  Now, even there the drama is all but gone.  But that's a good thing in my view.  Clearing the field for Romney was long overdue, though my heart does go out to the Santorum family over the difficult circumstance which precipitated his withdrawal.



Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  2012 GOP Primaries  New York 2012  NY President 2012  Pennsylvania 2012  PA President 2012 



posted by Scott Elliott at 9:47pm 04/23/12::
Friday, April 20, 2012
Election Projection update
The numbers for today are posted.  National presidential polls show a tight race between President Obama and Mitt Romney, and there have been a ton of them released lately.  Eleven polls in the last two weeks to be exact.  The President holds a composite 2.6% advantage, but fails to reach 50% in all but two of the eleven.  At 47.4%, his average share of the surveys should raise concern for the incumbent.

Still, he continues to poll very well in several battleground states.  He seems to be faring much better as we move from state to state than in the overall national picture.  Florida and Ohio look particularly encouraging for Democrats.  While these states are crucial to any path to a Romney victory in November, Obama enjoys significant leads in both.  (Job approval and national polling data do give Romney the lead in Florida in the latest presidential projections.  That may change once I have finalized the 2012 Election Projection formula, however.)

Not much change today on the Senate electoral landscape - it's still a 50-50 projected toss-up - but there has been some movement on the House front.  Generic congressional polls lean slightly toward the GOP thanks largely to an outlying Rasmussen poll which gives them an unlikely 10-point lead.  As a result, Republicans are projected, for the moment, to gain an additional 3 seats this year.



Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  Senate '12  2012 House 



posted by Scott Elliott at 9:50pm 04/20/12::
Wednesday, April 11, 2012
Latest projection update posted
The numbers continue to favor President Obama here at Election Projection.  The latest 2012 presidential election projections give Obama a commanding 126-vote lead in the all-important electoral vote tally.  The effects of Rick Santorum's recent decision to suspend his bid for the Republican presidential nomination will not be felt for several days, but, while we could see some tightening in the race for the White House, I don't expect Romney to benefit very much yet.

On the Senate front, Election Projection now projects an effective 50-50 tie with the two projected Independents caucusing with the Democrats.  The shift in the numbers comes courtesy of the Massachusetts race.  A poll from Rasmussen this week gives Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren a one-point lead over incumbent Republican Scott Brown in the Bay State senate race.  That's not much of a lead, but it is enough to tip the projection to the blue team for now.

I know the House and Governor's summaries have seen little in the way of updates up until now.  That is about to change - especially for the House races - as I'm working behind the scenes to bring current as many races as feasible at this point in the cycle.  Stay tuned...



Filed under:  2012 Elections  2012 Presidential Election  Senate '12  2012 House  2012 Governors  Massachusetts 2012  MA Senate 2012 



posted by Scott Elliott at 9:22pm 04/11/12::
Thursday, April 5, 2012
It's past time for Santorum and Gingrich to get out of the way
I'll just come right out and say it.  Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich are hurting their party's chances of making Barack Obama a one-term president.  The last thing the GOP needs is 4 more months of fighting each other.  President Obama should be clearly headed for defeat in November.  Instead, because certain Republicans can't see past their own ambition, he is on a path to easy re-election.  In just about every battleground state from Florida to Ohio, from North Carolina to Virginia, from Nevada to Colorado, the President is leading in just about every poll - many by a sizeable margin.  (In case you missed it, every one of those states was won by George W. Bush in his narrow re-election in 2004.)

And still, Republicans fight each other, wasting precious time with every passing day and squandering precious resources doing Obama's campaign task for him.  The time has come - no, it has long past - for Santorum and Gingrich to begin helping Mitt Romney defeat Obama.  That, or get out of the way.



Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  2012 Elections 



posted by Scott Elliott at 8:04pm 04/05/12::
Monday, April 2, 2012
Latest Wisconsin Republican primary polls
Three Republican primary battles are taking place tomorrow.  All three, D.C, Maryland and Wisconsin, are winner-take-all contests.  In Maryland, where 37 delegates are up for grabs, the winner of the overall vote will be awarded 13 delegates (including 3 bound party leaders), and the winner in each congressional district will take home 3.  The same allocation format will determine how Wisconsin's 42 delegates will be divided up.  Finally, in the District of Columbia, 16 of the 19 delegates there will be up for grabs with all 16 being awarded to the candidate with the highest vote total in the district.  The remaining 3 delegates will be unbound.

Here are the latest polls from Wisconsin.  I could find no polling from Maryland or DC.

Latest Wisconsin Republican Primary Polls
  State Romney Santorum Paul Gingrich
  WeAskAmerica 39 31 16 15
  Public Policy (D) 43 36 11 8
  Rasmussen 44 34 7 7
  NBC News/Marist 40 33 11 8
  WPR/St. Norbert 37 32 8 4
  Marquette Univ. 39 31 11 5
What's notable here in Wisconsin is that in late February, Rick Santorum led in two different polls by 16 points apiece.  Clearly, Mitt Romney is enjoying substantial momentum heading into the vote tomorrow.



Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  2012 GOP Primaries  Wisconsin 2012  WI President 2012  Maryland 2012  MD President 2012 



posted by Scott Elliott at 10:02pm 04/02/12::
Senate projection update - Florida turns back to blue
A Quinnipiac poll out of Florida last week puts incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson eight points ahead of his likely GOP challenger Connie Mack, IV.  As a result, the Sunshine State is projected to re-elect Senator Nelson in EP's latest Senate projections.  In the race for the White House, this projection update shows little change from the last one.  President Obama continues to lead the projected electoral vote count by 332-206 margin.  The popular vote projection has narrowed a bit to 1.7%, down from 2.1%.



Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  Senate '12  Florida 2012  FL Senate 2012 



posted by Scott Elliott at 9:33pm 04/02/12::
Wednesday, March 28, 2012
Presidential election projection update
The latest projections have been posted.  President Obama's approval ratings have held up well over the last few weeks despite his recent on mic gaffe with Dmitry Medvedev a couple days ago.  We'll have to see over the next week or so if that forces his numbers down a bit.

For now, however, the president is polling strong in several battleground states, maintaining surprisingly comfortable margins in such Republican must-win states like Virginia and Florida.  On the strength of that polling Obama enjoys a blue Florida with this latest update, and its 29 electoral votes put him even farther ahead of Mitt Romney, 332-206.

Correction: I originally said Obama was talking to Vladimir Putin when the gaffe was aired.  He was in fact speaking to Dmitry Medvedev.  My apologies for the error.



Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  2012 Elections  Florida 2012  FL President 2012  Virginia 2012  VA President 2012 



posted by Scott Elliott at 11:52pm 03/28/12::
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
Illinois Republican primary results
Mitt Romney has captured a double-digit win in Illinois tonight.  With 95% of the precincts reporting, Romney leads runner-up Rick Santorum 47% to 35%.  Ron Paul ran ahead of Newt Gingrich for third place.  In this direct election, Illinois voters are actually electing the delegates themselves rather than having delegates allocated based on votes for the candidates.  Incomplete figures indicate Romney will take a solid majority of the 54 delegates at stake today.



Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  2012 GOP Primaries  Illinois 2012  IL President 2012 



posted by Scott Elliott at 11:34pm 03/20/12::
Illinois primary results and predictions
A Public Policy (D) poll has been released out of Illinois since my last post.  They give Romney an overwhelming 15 point lead.  While I do believe he will win today, I think that margin is a bit of a stretch.  Here is how I see the Illinois Republican primary turning out.
  • Mitt Romney - 43%
  • Rick Santorum - 34%
  • Newt Gingrich - 14%
  • Ron Paul - 8%
Keep in mind that this is a prediction for the presidential popularity contest.  The real vote will directly elect candidate-assigned delegates.  The result of that contest should give Romney a plurality of the delegates, though likely not a majority.

I'll post the results tonight as the returns come in.



Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  2012 GOP Primaries  Illinois 2012  IL President 2012 



posted by Scott Elliott at 10:15am 03/20/12::
Sunday, March 18, 2012
Illinois Republican primary
This Tuesday, Illinois voters will head to the polls to cast meaningless ballots for one of several Republican presidential candidates.  Meaningless, you ask?  In Illinois' unique primary election format, voters will also vote for delegates directly.  These are the meaningful ones as they will determine who Illinois sends to the Republican National Convention in August.

I checked out an example ballot to see what they look like.  In the top section were the expected names - Romney, Santorum, Gingrich and Paul (along with Perry, though he has dropped out, of course).  That is the "presidential popularity contest," and the result of this contest has no impact on the delegate count or the nomination process.

Further down the ballot, a list of potential delegates were noted by name with a presidential candidate's name attached to each delegate.  This is where the Illinois Republican primary will be decided.  Each vote for a delegate is a de facto vote for the GOP candidate attached to that delegate.  That is what we call a "direct primary election."

Now that we've got that explanation down, here are the latest polls coming out of Illinois.

Latest Illinois Republican Primary Polls
  Poll Romney Santorum Gingrich Spread
  Rasmussen 41 32 14 Romney +9
  FOX Chicago/WAA 37 31 14 Romney +6
  Chicago Tribune 35 31 12 Romney +4
As the numbers show, Romney is ahead by a half-dozen points or so.  If the actual results reflect the polls taken so far, Romney should earn a plurality of the 54 delegates at stake on Tuesday, but perhaps not a majority.  The presidential popularity contest will probably be the media's method of choice for determining the "winner" in Illinois on Tuesday night, but be sure to track the votes for delegates to get a truer picture.



Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  2012 GOP Primaries  Illinois 2012  IL President 2012 



posted by Scott Elliott at 9:20pm 03/18/12::
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Alabama and Mississippi primary results
The returns are still coming in, but at 10:35pm on primary night, Rick Santorum appears headed to victory in two key southern states, Alabama and Mississippi.  Even though front runner Mitt Romney has fallen to third place in both races, it is Newt Gingrich who stands to lose the most should the current results hold.  After winning South Carolina and Georgia - and nothing else - Gingrich's campaign faced must wins in the South tonight.  It looks like he won't be getting them.  And with Santorum leading, there will be added pressure for Newt to close up shop on this year's bid for the Republican presidential nomination.



Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  2012 GOP Primaries  Alabama 2012  AL President 2012  Mississippi 2012  MS President 2012 



posted by Scott Elliott at 10:41pm 03/13/12::
Monday, March 12, 2012
Mississippi primary election polls and predictions
Just like in neighboring Alabama, polls in the Magnolia State are scarce and recent - and promise a very close, very competitive race.  Only two have been conducted this year, both within the last week.
Mississippi Republican Primary Polls
  State Romney Santorum Gingrich Spread
  Public Policy (D) 31 27 33 Gingrich +2
  Rasmussen 35 27 27 Romney +8
Predictions?  How about another shot in the dark?
  • Mitt Romney - 33%
  • Newt Gingrich - 31%
  • Rick Santorum - 29%
  • Ron Paul - 7%
Delegates are awarded in Mississippi much the same as in Alabama.  Therefore, no candidate will enjoy a large delegate advantage here either.



Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  2012 GOP Primaries  Mississippi 2012  MS President 2012 



posted by Scott Elliott at 7:43pm 03/12/12::
Alabama primary election polls and predictions
This one is very hard to call.  All three of the top candidates for the Republican presidential nomination have a legitimate chance to win Alabama tomorrow.  The majority of polls testing this race have been conducted in the last several days, so identifying a trend is difficult.  Take a look at these numbers and you can see just how close this race is.
Alabama Republican Primary Polls
  State Romney Santorum Gingrich Spread
  Public Policy (D) 31 29 30 Romney +1
  Rasmussen 28 29 30 Gingrich +1
  Alabama State 20 17 21 Gingrich +1
How would you like to try to predict this primary?  Those numbers are so close that it's anybody's guess, really.  But I'm a sucker for predictions, so here we go - just don't let too much ride on them.
  • Newt Gingrich - 32%
  • Rick Santorum - 31%
  • Mitt Romney - 30%
  • Ron Paul - 7%
As for the delegates to be awarded, don't expect any one of the top three to run away with a comfortable margin.  Alabama's district level, hybrid "winner-take-all or most" format should make for a very even distribution of the 47 of 50 delegates up for grabs in the state tomorrow.



Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  2012 GOP Primaries  Alabama 2012  AL President 2012 



posted by Scott Elliott at 7:30pm 03/12/12::
Saturday, March 10, 2012
Kansas election results - Santorum wins going away
The Jayhawk state proved to be very friendly to Rick Santorum today.  The former Pennsylvania senator scored just over half the vote, easily trouncing Mitt Romney, his closest competitor, by 30 points.  Here are the final results with 100% of precincts reporting.
  • Rick Santorum, 51.2%
  • Mitt Romney, 20.9%
  • Newt Gingirch, 14.4%
  • Ron Paul, 12.6%

Since Romney eclipsed the 20% threshold, he will be awared seven delegates.  Santorum is, of course, the big delegate winner.  He adds 33 delegates to his cache.  Neither Gingrich nor Paul got enough votes to earn delegate consideration.



Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  2012 GOP Primaries  Kansas 2012  KS President 2012 



posted by Scott Elliott at 9:11pm 03/10/12::
Friday, March 9, 2012
Kansas Republican caucus predictions
Tomorrow in the heartland, Republicans will decide how Kansas' forty delegates will vote at this year's Republican National Convention in Tampa starting August 27.  Who will win here?  I have scoured the web for polls testing that question and have come up with exactly zero surveys.  Without polling information at our disposal, predicting winners is much more problematic.  But that doesn't stop The Blogging Caesar!

Looking back at 2008 when Mike Huckabee won sixty percent of the vote in Kansas, it might be easy to say Rick Santorum has the advantage.  However, the Kansas caucus was held early in the cycle last time around (Feb 8), when Huckabee was still enjoying front runner status.  Even so, Kansas large socially conservative bloc of Republicans should bolster Santorum's vote totals.

Will it be enough for him to win here as he has done in neighboring states such as Oklahoma, Colorado and Missouri?  I think it will - but just by a whisker.  In fact, I believe the winner here tomorrow will not get to 40% - maybe not even 35%.  So, with that, here are my Kansas election predictions - which should be taken with a grain of salt given the complete absence of polls.

  • Rick Santorum - 33%
  • Mitt Romney - 31%
  • Newt Gingrich - 24%
  • Ron Paul - 11%

Caucuses begin at the precinct level at 11am EST.



Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  2012 GOP Primaries  Kansas 2012  KS President 2012 



posted by Scott Elliott at 5:18pm 03/09/12::
Thursday, March 8, 2012
Republican Presidential Nomination - upcoming battles
The first post-Super-Tuesday engagements in the continuing saga that is the 2012 Republican presidential nomination process will be this weekend.  On Saturday, four different caucuses are on tap.  Only one of them, Kansas, is "stateside."  The other three will be conducted in overseas territories of the United States, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Northern Marianas and Guam.  Saturday's delegate counts are 40 for Kansas and 9 for each of the offshore elections.

The next primaries will be on Tuesday, March 13 when Alabama and Mississippi will hold their nomination contests.  Also on the schedule Tuesday are American Samoa and Hawaii They will hold nominating caucuses that day.  The delegate counts for Tuesday's elections are 50 for Alabama, 40 for Mississippi, 20 for Hawaii and 9 for American Samoa.

For more details on the GOP primary elections, see Election Projection's Republican Presidential Nomination page.



Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  2012 GOP Primaries  AL President 2012  KS President 2012  MS President 2012 



posted by Scott Elliott at 9:50pm 03/08/12::
Tuesday, March 6, 2012
Super Tuesday results - updated4
Starting tonight around 9pm EST, I'll be posting Super Tuesday results - updated here and discussing their impact on the 2012 Republican Presidential Nomination process.  Check back often to see how things are turning out for your favorite Republican presidential candidate.

Update: (9:25pm) So far we have several races called among the 10 primaries and causus held today.  Rick Santorum has won Oklahoma and Tennessee and leads by 2 in Ohio.  Romney takes Massachusetts, Vermont and Virgnia.  Gingrich enjoys strong win in his homestate of Georgia.  Returns in the three caucus states, North Dakota, Alaska and Idaho are either just starting to come or have not yet begun.

Update2: (10:15pm) Ohio is still to close to call.  Even though Santorum leads by about 12,000 with the majority of the vote counted, the lion's share of the outstanding vote will come in from counties that lean toward Romney.  Looks like another nail biter!

Update3: (10:47pm) Santorum wins North Dakota; Romney pulls closer to Santorum in Ohio.  With 16% left to count, it's down to just one point.

Update4: (11:06pm) Mitt Romney's folks are saying "Santorum doesn't have the votes to catch up" - and he has just taken a 1400 vote lead.  It's going to be Romney.



Filed under:  2012 Super Tuesday  2012 Presidential Election  2012 GOP Primaries 



posted by Scott Elliott at 11:20am 03/06/12::
Welcome to Election Projection
A lot of folks are coming to Election Projection today by way of search engines.  If that is you, then this is probably your first time to visit.  Let me offer you a hearty welcome!  While you're here, I thought I'd give an overview of all the features and fun that can be found here.

Of course, with a name like "Election Projection," you might expect extensive resources by which you can track the upcoming elections in November.  Indeed, that is a large part of EP's content.  Below you'll find links to handy summary pages which include frequently updated at-a-glance projections of different state-by-state races.

  • 2012 Presidential Elections:  The current numbers give President Obama a comfortable 303-235 lead in the all important race for the White House.
  • 2012 Senate Elections:  For the moment, we have a projected tie in the Senate, with VP Biden casting the deciding vote.
  • 2012 Congressional Elections:  Redistricting has shuffled around the make up of our 435 congressional districts, but the current projected tally looks almost unchanged.
  • 2012 Governor Elections:  Just eleven gubernatorial races are on tap this year, but the GOP looks well-positioned to expand their statehouse majority.
On any of these pages, just click on a map to view one of 50 statepages with tons of information on the races and political landscape of each state.

In addition to the projections, EP also provides easy-to-use pages that cover other aspects of the election season.

Election Projection's previous results have been very accurate since it began back in 2003.  I hope you'll stick around for a while and find out what all EP has to offer - and I'd be delighted if you'd make Election Projection a daily stop on the way toward Election Day, November 6.



Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  Senate '12  2012 House  2012 Governors  Website administration 



posted by Scott Elliott at 4:17pm 02/28/12::
Monday, March 5, 2012
Ohio primary results last straw for Santorum?
Rick Santorum has been running ahead of Mitt Romney in Ohio over the last several weeks.  His lead, however, has been shrinking much as it did in the run up to the Michigan primaries last week.  A couple of the latest Ohio primary polls even give Romney a small lead.  That's why my Super Tuesday predictions have Romney winning the Buckeye state.  If that prediction turns out to be true, whatever small chance Santorum has of overtaking Romney and winning the Republican presidential nomination will become practically negligible.

Oh, and don't be terribly surprised to see Romney take Tennesse too. (I didn't go that far in my predictions but I, for one, would not be shocked by that outcome.)



Filed under:  2012 Super Tuesday  2012 Presidential Election  2012 GOP Primaries  Ohio 2012  OH President 2012  Tennessee 2012  TN President 2012 



posted by Scott Elliott at 8:30pm 03/05/12::
Super Tuesday predictions
It's going to be a good day for Mitt Romney tomorrow.  The 2012 Super Tuesday Republican presidential primaries and caucuses are going to go a long way toward ending any suspense about who will face President Obama in November.  Here are Election Projection's Super Tuesday predictions:
  • Alaska Caucus - 27 delegates
        Predicted finish:  Romney, Paul, Santorum, Gingrich
  • Georgia Primary - 76 delegates
        Predicted finish:  Gingrich, Romney, Santorum, Paul
  • Idaho Caucus - 32 delegates
        Predicted finish:  Romney, Santorum, Paul, Gingrich
  • Massachusetts Primary - 41 delegates
        Predicted finish:  Romney, Santorum, Paul, Gingrich
  • North Dakota Caucus - 28 delegates
        Predicted finish:  Romney, Santorum, Paul, Gingrich
  • Ohio Primary - 66 delegates
        Predicted finish:  Romney, Santorum, Paul, Gingrich
  • Oklahoma Primary - 43 delegates
        Predicted finish:  Santorum, Romney, Gingrich, Paul
  • Tennessee Primary - 58 delegates
        Predicted finish:  Santorum, Romney, Gingrich, Paul
  • Vermont Primary - 17 delegates
        Predicted finish:  Romney, Santorum, Paul, Gingrich
  • Virginia Primary - 49 delegates
        Predicted finish:  Romney, Paul
In all, these ten states will be representted by 437 delegates, though 15 of them are unbound super delegates which won't be at stake tomorrow.  Here's a quick estimate of how I think the 422 delegates which are at stake will be allocated.
  • Mitt Romney:  200-250
  • Rich Santorum:  90-120
  • Newt Gingrich:  50-70
  • Ron Paul:  20-30
Check back here tomorrow evening for updates on the Super Tuesday results.



Filed under:  2012 Super Tuesday  2012 GOP Primaries  2012 Presidential Election 



posted by Scott Elliott at 1:51pm 03/05/12::
Election Projection update published
There were a couple of big changes in today's Election Projection update.  On the Electoral College front, President Obama is now projected to win Ohio.  The change extends his projected margin of victory in the 2012 presidential elections to 68 electoral votes.  He now leads the projection 303-235 over Mitt Romney.  The Senate tally also moves in the Democrats' favor today as Virginia sports a newly-painted blue hue.

Coincidentally - or maybe not - both races flipped on the weight of a series of polls from NBC News/Marist.  I'm not sure what to make them, but they conducted several polls around the country whose results look very much like outliers.  I'm still using them in the calculations, but it'll be something we'll want to keep an eye on going forward.



Filed under:  2012 Elections  2012 Presidential Election  Senate '12  Ohio 2012  OH President 2012  Virginia 2012  VA Senate 2012 



posted by Scott Elliott at 9:03am 03/05/12::
Thursday, March 1, 2012
Super Tuesday primaries: Santorum's best
outcome a stalemate?
After narrowly missing an upset in Michigan which would have given him a great symbolic victory, Rick Santorum must now look to the Super Tuesday Republican primaries to try to mount what could be a last ditch effort to overtake Mitt Romney in the battle for the Republican presidential nomination.  But that may be an insurmountable challenge.  Larry Sabato, a professor at the University of Virginia and well-known political pundit, says Santorum's absence from the Virginia ballot next Tuesday only intensifies the importance of the Ohio Republican primary.
In the case of the Virginia primary, he who is absent is Rick Santorum. And itís going to cost him, big time, on Super Tuesday.

Because only Mitt Romney and Ron Paul are on the Virginia ballot, Romney - who we expect to sweep the Old Dominion - starts off with a big lead on Super Tuesday courtesy of Virginia.  That built-in advantage will make it exceedingly difficult for Santorum to finish the day with more delegates than Romney.  In fact, we expect Romney to win more delegates on Super Tuesday than Rick Santorum, probably many more.

As you can see from Sabato's perspective, Santorum must have a great performance on Tuesday just to maintain the deficit now facing him against Romney.  In this prognosticator's view, that's just one more indication how strong Romney's chances are of facing President Obama in November.



Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  2012 GOP Primaries  Ohio 2012  OH President 2012  Virginia 2012  VA President 2012  2012 Super Tuesday 



posted by Scott Elliott at 7:51pm 03/01/12::
Wednesday, February 29, 2012
Romney takes two, Arizona and Michigan primary results
Last night saw Mitt Romney fend off a strong challenge in Michigan by Rick Santorum.  After falling well behind a couple weeks out from this critical Republican nomination battle, Romney more than made up lost ground over the last few days to forge a close but significant win in his native state.  Even though he'll largely split the delegates there due to Michigan's proportional allotment system, the momentum he'll enjoy from the victory is no small thing.  Being on the top line of the results affords him the chance to maintain, and even solidify, his front runner status.  Had he not prevailed, Santorum would have stolen the news cycle, and Romney would have been forced to go on the defensive.  Instead, Romney will be able to continue to bash Obama rather than focusing solely on his primary opponents.  To that point, Romney's victory speech last night included a plethora of digs at the President while excluding completely any mention of Santorum, Gingrich or Paul.

In Arizona, Romney's convincing 20-point victory was not unexpected, though the overwhelming margin was a bit of a surprise.  Until mid-February, Romney led Santorum by a couple dozen and appeared set to breeze to the win there.  Then, overnight, polls showed Santorum closing the gap dramatically.  At one point, Romney's average lead in the polls had dwindled to just 5 points.  That was a week ago.  At that point, Romney once again regained the upper hand in the polls, and his projected victory steadily swelled to the low double-digits.  The trend was definitely in his favor, but a 20-point margin is well outside where the aggregate stood when the polls opened yesterday.

The bottom line from yesterday: Romney confirmed his front runner status by taking both primaries, and any chance of him losing the nomination now lies with Santorum's performance in Ohio on Super Tuesday in six days.  Currently, Santorum's lead there is in the high single digits.  Expect that margin to tighten on the wings of Romney's victories last night.  If Romney can overtake Santorum in the Buckeye state, call it a night and turn out the lights.  It'll be time for Republicans to concentrate on beating Obama.



Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  2012 GOP Primaries  Arizona 2012  AZ President 2012  Michigan 2012  MI President 2012  2012 Super Tuesday 



posted by Scott Elliott at 9:27am 02/29/12::
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
Welcome to Election Projection
A lot of folks are coming to Election Projection today by way of search engines.  If that is you, then this is probably your first time to visit.  Let me offer you a hearty welcome!  While you're here, I thought I'd give an overview of all the features and fun that can be found here.

Of course, with a name like "Election Projection," you might expect extensive resources by which you can track the upcoming elections in November.  Indeed, that is a large part of EP's content.  Below you'll find links to handy summary pages which include frequently updated at-a-glance projections of different state-by-state races.

  • 2012 Presidential Elections:  The current numbers give President Obama a comfortable 303-235 lead in the all important race for the White House.
  • 2012 Senate Elections:  For the moment, we have a projected tie in the Senate, with VP Biden casting the deciding vote.
  • 2012 Congressional Elections:  Redistricting has shuffled around the make up of our 435 congressional districts, but the current projected tally looks almost unchanged.
  • 2012 Governor Elections:  Just eleven gubernatorial races are on tap this year, but the GOP looks well-positioned to expand their statehouse majority.
On any of these pages, just click on a map to view one of 50 statepages with tons of information on the races and political landscape of each state.

In addition to the projections, EP also provides easy-to-use pages that cover other aspects of the election season.

Election Projection's previous results have been very accurate since it began back in 2003.  I hope you'll stick around for a while and find out what all EP has to offer - and I'd be delighted if you'd make Election Projection a daily stop on the way toward Election Day, November 6.



Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  Senate '12  2012 House  2012 Governors  Website administration 



posted by Scott Elliott at 4:17pm 02/28/12::
Michigan and Arizona Republican primary election results
Starting sometime after polls close tonight you can track the returns in Arizona and Michigan at the following links. Polls close in Arizona at 9pm EST. Polls close in Michigan at 8pm EST.



Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  2012 GOP Primaries  Arizona 2012  AZ President 2012  Michigan 2012  MI President 2012 



posted by Scott Elliott at 9:51am 02/28/12::
Monday, February 27, 2012
Michigan and Arizona Republican primary predictions
Here are Election Projection's predictions for tomorrow's Republican primary elections in Michigan and Arizona.  The Grand Canyon state is easy to peg - Romney will win easily, of course.  The Great Lakes state is more difficult to predict.  Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum have gone back and forth over the last couple weeks, and the very latest trend seems to be settling squarely on the "it's anybody's game" spot.

But, if you've read me for long, you know I can't resist picking a winner even in the closest of toss-ups.  So here we go again.

Michigan Republican Primary Predictions

  • Mitt Romney - 39%
  • Rick Santorum - 38%
  • Ron Paul - 13%
  • Newt Gingrich - 10%

Arizona Republican Primary Predictions

  • Mitt Romney - 44%
  • Rick Santorum - 28%
  • Newt Gingrich - 18%
  • Ron Paul - 10%

Check back later for links to the Arizona and Michigan primary results.



Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  2012 GOP Primaries  Arizona 2012  AZ President 2012  Michigan 2012  MI President 2012 



posted by Scott Elliott at 10:35pm 02/27/12::
Latest Michigan Republican primary polls
Tomorrow's Republican presidential primary in Michigan may be a critical juncture in the race for the nomination.  Rick Santorum overcame a large deficit here earlier in the process to pull in front of Mitt Romney.  Lately, however, Romney's poll numbers have improved, and now it looks like he may be back in front by the slimmest of margins.  This race, which is effectively too close to call, is very important to Mitt Romney if he is to hold onto his frontrunner status.  And since this is his home state, he stands to lose much more if he doesn't prevail than Santorum will if he does.

Here are the latest poll results from the Great Lakes state. Tune in later this evening for Election Projection's predictions of this all-important primary battle.

Michigan Republican Primary Polls
Poll Dates Romney Santorum Spread
Average 37.3 35.8 Romney +1.5
Rasmussen 2/26 38 36 Romney +2
Rosetta Stone 2/26 35 37 Santorum +2
PPP (D) 2/26 39 37 Romney +2
WeAskAmerica 2/26 37 33 Romney +4
Polling data thanks to RealClearPolitics.com



Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  2012 GOP Primaries  Michigan 2012  MI President 2012 



posted by Scott Elliott at 7:33pm 02/27/12::
Latest Arizona Republican primary polls
Tomorrow, voters in Arizona will cast their ballots for one of four Republican candidates still in the race for the GOP nomination and the chance to battle President Barack Obama in the general election.  For much of the primary season, Mitt Romney has held a very large lead in the Grand Canyon state.  Then in mid February, Rick Santorum quickly closed the gap to 5 or 6 points. Since then, however, Romney has steadily stretched his lead back out.  On the eve of the primary, Romney's advantage is in the 13-14 point range.

Here are the latest polls out on tomorrow's contest.

Arizona Republican Primary Polls
Poll Dates Romney Santorum Spread
Average 41.4 28.2 Romney +13.2
PPP (D) 2/17-2/19 36 33 Romney +3
WeAskAmerica 2/19-2/20 37 27 Romney +10
Rasmussen 2/23-2/23 42 29 Romney +13
NBC/Marist 2/19-2/20 43 27 Romney +16
CNN/Time 2/17-2/20 36 32 Romney +4
I'll be posting Election Projection's predictions for Arizona later this evening.  Poll data courtesy of RealClearPolitics.com



Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  2012 GOP Primaries  Arizona 2012  AZ President 2012 



posted by Scott Elliott at 7:22pm 02/27/12::
2012 Presidential Election Projection update
As I discussed this weekend, Mitt Romney is heading off a charge by Rick Santorum in the days before tomorrow's big primary battles in Michigan and Arizona.  On the general election front, he's gaining against President Obama as well.  This morning's update shows him flipping Florida and its 29 electoral votes to red.  Obama's job approval has dipped slightly of late.  That, combined with a USA Today/Gallup poll which gives Romney a 4-point lead, provides the source of Romney's uptick.

The President still commands a solid lead in the EV tally however.  He's projected to win by a 285-253 margin.  In the popular vote projection, the margin is 1.4% in favor of the incumbent.



Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  Ratings changes 



posted by Scott Elliott at 8:47am 02/27/12::
Thursday, February 23, 2012
Gallup presidential poll: Romney moves ahead of Obama, Santorum 1 point behind
The latest Gallup poll testing potential GOP nominees against President Barack Obama shows improving fortunes for the Republicans.  Mitt Romney leads Obama 50% to 46%, and Rick Santorum is just one point behind, 49-48.  Santorum's numbers have improved considerably since Gallup's last poll in late January.  That survey showed him down eight to the President.



Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  2012 Elections 



posted by Scott Elliott at 2:22pm 02/23/12::
Monday, February 13, 2012
2012 Presidential Elections - Electoral College update
I posted an early week update to the presidential projections.  The initial projection a couple weeks ago showed Mitt Romney very close to overtaking Barack Obama in electoral votes.  At 272-266, the count was extremely close - so close, in fact, that Romney actually led Obama in the projected popular vote numbers.  That soon changed as Obama's approval numbers improved last week and his lead in general election polls increased.

As a result, President Obama now commands a 332-206 lead in EVs and a 50.7%-47.7% lead in the projected popular vote.  Florida (29 EVs) and Virginia (13 EVs) are the two party switchers which give Obama his new breathing room in the projection.  I'm monitoring the approval numbers closely to see if Obama sustains any damage from the required contraception issue.



Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  2012 Rating Changes 



posted by Scott Elliott at 11:40am 02/13/12::
Thursday, February 9, 2012
Trial run by the numbers: Obama vs. Santorum
Today's Electoral College Projection show President Obama winning the popular vote against Mitt Romney by 2.6% and 332 electoral votes to just 206 for Romney.  Due to the fact that I continue to believe Romney will be GOP nominee, those are my official numbers.  However, after Rick Santorum's sweep Tuesday, I thought it would be interesting to the run the numbers with him as the nominee.

Somewhat surprisingly, Santorum captures the same number of electoral votes as Romney, 206.  His popular vote count doesn't fair so well.  The president bests him by just over 4 points.  What does this say?  At the moment, Romney is a stronger challenge to Obama - but not by as much as you might think.  And the way poll numbers can move up and down with the greatest of ease, who knows if Santorum might have what it takes to beat Obama in November.

The bottom line remains as it was always going to be in this election.  If the GOP nominates a credible candidate, this election will be a referendum on Obama's administration, and that will be driven by the state of the economy.  Lately we're starting to learn two things in that regard.  First, the economy is starting to look like it will be moving forward between now and November - a good sign for Obama.  And second, Rick Santorum is starting to look like a credible choice for the nomination - a good sign for Santorum.



Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  Rick Santorum  Mitt Romney  President Obama 



posted by Scott Elliott at 9:34pm 02/09/12::
Monday, January 30, 2012
2012 presidential elections: The reason New Hampshire is still blue
This morning, the release of Election Projection's first official numbers has attracted some attention around the internet.  Many thanks to Jim Geraghty of National Review for posting something about it.  And to Hugh Hewitt for offering a shout out on Twitter.

One question that has come up in the reaction to the new numbers is about the color of New Hampshire.  Readers rightfully point to a series of polls taken in the Granite State which shows Romney beating Obama.  Certainly, were these polls included in my calculations, New Hampshire would be painted red and Romney would be currently projected to beat Obama overall (270-268!!).  However, as much as I would love to show Romney leading, the polls in question are all too old to be used.  The last one was taken November of last year.

Rest assured, GOP fans, once a new poll comes out of New Hampshire, I will update the projections accordingly.



Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  New Hampshire 2012  NH President 2012 



posted by Scott Elliott at 2:09pm 01/30/12::
Sunday, January 29, 2012
Election Projection's 2012 electoral college projections are underway
The abrupt re-resurgence of Newt Gingrich last weekend, fueled by his resounding victory in South Carolina, has experienced an equally abrupt downturn in recent days.  Mitt Romney has moved comfortably ahead in several polls coming out of Florida.  With a victory in Tuesday's primary in the Sunshine State appearing all but certain, Romney's path to the GOP nomination should become much less fraught with obstacles.

As I promised a week ago, I've launched Election Projection's official tracking of the presidential contest between Romney and President Obama, and the first official projections are posted.  Previously, the President enjoyed a substantial lead after the "Tour of the 50 states" yielded my state-by-state preliminary projections.  But the first look at the race using calculations with actual polling numbers reveals a much closer fight.  Obama retains the lead in my initial projections, but by just 6 electoral votes.

Mitt Romney is projected to carry all the states won by John McCain in 2008 - plus Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia - for a total of 266 electoral votes.  That's not quite enough to best President Obama, who is projected to win a total of 272 EVs, but it does set up a race that should be very competitive.  As we watch this competitive race unfold over the next nine months, I hope you'll visit Election Projection often to get an up-to-date outlook from The Blogging Caesar.



Filed under:  2012 Elections  2012 Presidential Election 



posted by Scott Elliott at 10:36pm 01/29/12::
Sunday, January 15, 2012
It's Romney against Obama
I know we're still six days away from just the third GOP nomination contest, but, as to the eventual nominee, signs are all pointing in one particular direction.  Toward Mitt Romney.  If you've followed Election Projection long, you have probably gathered that Mitt Romney is not my favorite prospective GOP nominee.  In fact, I've tried my objective best to imagine someone else overtaking him and his longtime frontrunner status.

When Rick Perry joined the fray, I boldly declared him the next nominee - and the next president. (Ok, how was I to know he'd forget his own policies?).  When Rick Santorum utilized Mike Huckabee's GOP base in Iowa to gain a virtual tie with Romney in the Hawkeye Caucuses, I pegged the nomination contest as a two-man race.  In between, I rode the short-lived waves of Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich.  And most recently, I even floated the possibility of a Perry comeback in the days before New Hampshire.

Now, with South Carolina's primary less than a week away, I've become convinced of a less-than-optimal inevitability.  It is with some regret that I hereby relinquish hope of an "anti-Romney" candidate prevailing to face President Obama in November.  Mitt Romney is dominating the fundraising battle and the endorsement tally.  Beyond that, he also continues to lead the polls both in South Carolina and nationally.

Trying to draw up a scenario that doesn't end with a Romney nomination has become unreasonably improbable.  So sure am I that he will emerge the nominee that I will soon be dispensing with my preliminary presidential projections and initiating actual, formula-driven projections using Obama vs. Romney poll numbers.  Let the games begin - and may Romney win.



Filed under:  2012 GOP Primaries  2012 Elections  2012 Presidential Election  Mitt Romney 



posted by Scott Elliott at 9:53pm 01/15/12::
Thursday, October 20, 2011
More thoughts on job approval and re-election chances
Last week, I took a look at President Obama's quest for a second term with an eye on the Electoral College.  A large portion of the analysis dealt with the affect that job approval for a sitting president has on his re-election chances.  Using history as a guide, Obama's job approval will be perhaps the most predictive indicator of his re-electability.

Coincidentally, this week, I had a conversation with a very intelligent, liberal friend of mine about this very fact.  In our discussion, he asserted that job approval will only be an overriding factor if the GOP can nominate an electable candidate to challenge the President.  He believes even a dismal economy can be overcome if Obama faces a weak enough opponent.  I countered - and rightly so, I believe - that if Obama's job approval is in the low 40's come the weekend before Election Day, it won't matter who is listed below him on the ballot.

I firmly believe this - and the track record backs me up.  Every president with an approval rating of 49% or above since 1940 has won, while the three with approval less than that have lost. Moreover, if a president's approval dipped into the 30's, his defeat was sizeable.

I am very willing to stand on this prediction:  If Obama's approval is under 45% this time next year, he will lose - and lose big - no matter whom he faces.  But here's the caviat (and I didn't mention this in my discussion with my friend).  Obama's job approval will be somewhat tied to the GOP nominee.  If Republicans nominate someone who connects with voters, Obama's shortcomings will be accentuated, and his approval will sustain downward pressure.  On the other hand, a weak candidate will have the opposite effect.  If voters are presented with an unacceptable GOP challenger, they will begin to see such things as a bad economy as more palatable, and Obama's approval will rise as a result.

In the end, the corellation between job approval and re-election will be unbroken after Election 2012.  But where that job approval ends up will be a combination of many factors, not the least of which will be who gets to be the last speaker at the Republican National Convention in Tampa next August.



Filed under:  2012 Elections  2012 Presidential Election  President Obama 



posted by Scott Elliott at 7:51pm 10/20/11::
Monday, October 10, 2011
2012 Elections - First look at the Electoral College
Three years ago, Barak Obama breezed into the White House winning 28 states, the District of Columbia and one electoral vote in Nebraska.  That's 365 electoral votes total.  In the process, he amassed 69.46 million votes, over 7 million more votes than any presidential candidate in United States history.  His margin of victory over GOP nominee John McCain surpassed 9 million votes.  Simple math would predict a large erosion of support would have to befall President Obama for him to fail to attain a second term.  However, looking at the Electoral College map, it isn't all that hard to see a Republican challenger getting the needed 270 EVs to unseat the incumbent.

Let's start with the closest of state races from 2008.  President Obama won North Carolina (0.32%), Indiana (1.04%), Nebraska's 2nd congressional district (1.19%) and Florida (2.82%) by less than 3%.  Assuming equal distribution across the nation, a GOP-ward swing of a mere 1.5% in the popular vote would flip these states to red and narrow Obama's EV margin to 305-235.  And if his portion of the popular vote were to decline just 3% more, Ohio (4.59%), Virginia (6.29%) and Colorado (8.95%) would give their 40 electoral votes and an electoral victory to the Republican nominee.  So, in light of the numbers, it is clear that the 2012 election will be won or lost in these three states.

Conspicuously absent from this winning GOP scenario are any of the traditional battleground states of Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire.  In 2000, George W. Bush needed all the states mentioned previously as well as Nevada and New Hampshire to get to a scant 271-267 electoral vote majority.  Next year, the GOP candidate can lose both Nevada and New Hampshire (10 EVs total) and still reach a more comfortable majority with 275 electoral votes.  Redistricting over the last two censuses has shifted at least 14 electoral votes to redder states and made electing a Republican president structurally easier.

Compounding Obama's re-election difficulties are his dismal approval numbers.  Realistically, a sitting president with a job approval rating under 45% has very little chance of winning 4 more years in office.  These numbers could improve, but with 13 months until Election Day, the odds are long that they would improve enough to for him to win.  Nate Silver actually posted the following graphic in an article he wrote back in January concerning this very phenomenon.

From Silver's analysis, Obama's current approval of 40% maps to about a 40% chance of re-election.  Considering the structural changes due to redistricting, I'd peg his chances at 35% or so right now.



Filed under:  2012 Elections  2012 Redistricting  President Obama  2012 Presidential Election 



posted by Scott Elliott at 11:25pm 10/10/11::

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