Texas' compromise map is truly that.  In the original map drawn by the Republican legislature, Charlie Cook showed the GOP gaining 3 of Texas' four new seats.  The counter map drawn by the courts gave Democrats 2 seats and Republican 2 seats according to Cook.  With this final map, Cook gives the GOP 1.5 seats and the Democrats 2.5.



Filed under:  2012 Redistricting  Texas 2012  TX House 2012 

We're also still eagerly awaiting the resolution of Texas' long-running redistricting battles in court.  For detailed and frequent updates, I recommend this site.

The overall picture is becoming more complete as the heart of the election season approaches.  Forty-one states, representing 318 congressional districts, have either settled on a final map or claim only one statewide district.  Four more states, Connecticut and Minnesota along with Florida and Texas, are slogging through court challenges.  That leaves just 5 states that have yet to pass a new district map.



Filed under:  2012 Redistricting  Florida 2012  Texas 2012 

Election Projection has a handy redistricting page with at-a-glance tables and maps that track the status of the process in all 43 multi-district states.  This week, I've updated the page a couple of times, moving some states into the "complete" column and refreshing the expected impact of redistricting on the partisan balance of power in the House.  Ironically, with all the moving and rearranging, the net of it all will be no change according to Charlie Cook's redistricting estimations.

Check back often to see how things are shaping up.  I'll be updating the redistricting page as changes occur and more states complete the process.  The big unknown right now is the state of Texas.  After weeks of numerous court actions and several false starts, the Supreme Court will hear arguments Monday on a district map controversy that has drawn the constitutionality of parts of the Voting Rights Act of 1965 into question.



Filed under:  2012 Redistricting  Texas 2012 

The impact of redistricting at this point has moved from a complete wash to a projected gain of one seat for Republicans.  Cook Political reports that Republicans are benefiting from a more "ruthless" approach to the process.  However, this ambition may backfire in states such as Texas where a court ruling could cost the GOP several seats.  So, the final verdict on how the parties fare in this process remains to be seen.



Filed under:  2012 Redistricting 

Let's start with the closest of state races from 2008.  President Obama won North Carolina (0.32%), Indiana (1.04%), Nebraska's 2nd congressional district (1.19%) and Florida (2.82%) by less than 3%.  Assuming equal distribution across the nation, a GOP-ward swing of a mere 1.5% in the popular vote would flip these states to red and narrow Obama's EV margin to 305-235.  And if his portion of the popular vote were to decline just 3% more, Ohio (4.59%), Virginia (6.29%) and Colorado (8.95%) would give their 40 electoral votes and an electoral victory to the Republican nominee.  So, in light of the numbers, it is clear that the 2012 election will be won or lost in these three states.

Conspicuously absent from this winning GOP scenario are any of the traditional battleground states of Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire.  In 2000, George W. Bush needed all the states mentioned previously as well as Nevada and New Hampshire to get to a scant 271-267 electoral vote majority.  Next year, the GOP candidate can lose both Nevada and New Hampshire (10 EVs total) and still reach a more comfortable majority with 275 electoral votes.  Redistricting over the last two censuses has shifted at least 14 electoral votes to redder states and made electing a Republican president structurally easier.

Compounding Obama's re-election difficulties are his dismal approval numbers.  Realistically, a sitting president with a job approval rating under 45% has very little chance of winning 4 more years in office.  These numbers could improve, but with 13 months until Election Day, the odds are long that they would improve enough to for him to win.  Nate Silver actually posted the following graphic in an article he wrote back in January concerning this very phenomenon.

From Silver's analysis, Obama's current approval of 40% maps to about a 40% chance of re-election.  Considering the structural changes due to redistricting, I'd peg his chances at 35% or so right now.



Filed under:  2012 Elections  2012 Redistricting  President Obama  2012 Presidential Election 

If you haven't seen EP's redistricting page yet, check it out - and come back often to see where the parties stand in the struggle to gain once-in-a-decade electoral advantages.  For your convenience, there is also a new link at the top of this page under the banner.



Filed under:  2012 Redistricting 

That doesn't mean we won't see significant changes in delegations in other states, however.  In fact, two of the three states set to produce the biggest partisan shifts did not gain or lose any House seats this year.  With the release of California's proposed redistricting map, Democrats are salivating at the potential to gain 3 to 5 seats.  Democrats also expect to gain no less than 4 seats in Illinois where they control the redistricting process entirely.  On the Republican side, complete control in my home state of North Carolina could move 3 seats from blue to red next year, based solely on redistricting.  Overall, reapportionment and redistricting across the nation appears to be pretty much a partisan wash, though California's new map may tip the balance slightly in the Democrats' favor.



Filed under:  2012 Redistricting 

As you can see Texas is the big winner, gaining a whopping 4 seats.  Florida is next among gainers with 2.  On the other side are New York and Ohio, who will see their congressional delegations reduced by 2 each come January, 2013.

These changes give red 2008 states a net increase of 4 electoral votes.  However, if the new numbers had been in place 3 years ago, Barack Obama would have beaten John McCain by a still convincing 361-177 margin.

Correction: Originally, I listed Florida among McCain states in 2008.  That, of course, was incorrect.  I've updated the table to reflect the accurate picture.



Filed under:  2012 Redistricting