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  Politics and Elections
   2013 Virginia Governor's Election
Tuesday, November 5, 2013

Election results - Virginia and New Jersey - updated
Gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey are being held today along with mayoral elections in Boston and New York City.  Huffpost politics has a great at-a-glance resource for tracking the election results as they come in tonight.

Filed under: 2013 New Jersey Governor's Election  2013 Virginia Governor's Election 

posted by Scott Elliott at 9:06am 11/05/13::
Monday, November 4, 2013
Virginia Governor race projection - McAuliffe by 5
Though there appears to be some tightening in the race for the statehouse in Virginia, Democrat Terry McAuliffe continues to hold an advantage outside the margin of error in the majority of polls taken recently.  Seven points is the most popular margin, though an Emerson College survey put Republican Ken Cuccinelli just two points behind.  Here at Election Projection, I'll peg the final margin at five points in favor of the Democrat.  Make it McAuliffe 50, Cuccinelli 45 and Libertarian Robert Sarvis 4.

Filed under: 2013 Virginia Governor's Election 

posted by Scott Elliott at 10:42am 11/04/13::
Wednesday, October 9, 2013
Virginia governor race poll update: McAuliffe pulling away
Last week, I posted that Democrat Terry McAuliffe could claim a small but steady lead in the most recent round of polling at the time.  After this week's batch of polls, that's probably not the best way to characterize McAuliffe's advantage.  Two of three polls released since the weekend show the Democrat with leads of nine and ten points over Republican Ken Cuccinelli.  And while the third poll from Roanoke College only puts him up by 5, even that's a significant bump from their last poll which had Cuccinelli within one.

Until now, the prognosis on this race has been that McAuliffe's lead was not enough to weather a strong turnout for the GOP candidate.  That appears to have changed as we head down the home stretch.  As a result, the Virginia statehouse, unless something drastic changes between now and November 5, is very likely to welcome home a Democrat in January 2014.

Filed under: 2013 Virginia Governor's Election 

posted by Scott Elliott at 9:56am 10/09/13::
Friday, October 4, 2013
Virginia governor race polls show small but steady lead for Democrat
One month before Virginians select their next governor, Democrat Terry McAuliffe has a remarkably stable, just-outside-the-margin-of-error lead on his opponent, Republican Ken Cuccinelli.  Nine polls have been released since early last month.  McAuliffe is ahead in all of them.  What is striking about the data is how consistent the polls' results are.  Among the nine surveys, the largest lead he enjoys is 7 point and the smallest is 3.  No less than five polls give him a 5 point lead, and that's the aggregate average of all the polls.
PollDates DRLead
Emerson College9/26 - 9/30519 RV4338McAuliffe +5
Hampton University9/25 - 9/29800 LV4440McAuliffe +4
Univ. of Mary Wash.9/25 - 9/29559 LV4235McAuliffe +7
Rasmussen Reports9/23 - 9/231050 LV4438McAuliffe +6
Washington Post9/19 - 9/22562 LV4944McAuliffe +5
NBC News/Marist9/17 - 9/19546 LV4338McAuliffe +5
Harper (R)9/15 - 9/16779 LV4237McAuliffe +5
Quinnipiac9/9 - 9/151005 LV4441McAuliffe +3
Purple Strategies9/6 - 9/10800 LV4338McAuliffe +5
There are still a very high number of undecideds in the electorate in Virginia, as evidenced by McAuliffe relatively low 43.8% average support of poll respondents.  So, turnout remains the key to the outcome in this odd-year election.

Filed under: 2013 Virginia Governor's Election 

posted by Scott Elliott at 4:52pm 10/04/13::
Tuesday, September 17, 2013
An update on the Virginia Governor Race
It has been a while since I've posted anything here at Election Projection.  In the interim, several polls have been released testing the Virginia governor's race between Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Ken Cuccinelli.  A brief look at the numbers shows little has changed over the last month.  McAuliffe continues to maintain a small but undeniable lead.

But the race has yet to be decided.  At 44.6% aggregate, the Democrat can hardly breathe easy.  Several factors keep the outcome of this race in doubt.  First, undecideds still make up a good percentage of likely voters - well into double-digits in multiple recent polls.  How they break could shrink McAuliffe's advantage.

Second, Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis is pulling in the neighborhood of 10% support in polls in which he is included as a candidate.  Past results have shown third-party candidates rarely achieve their pre-election polling numbers on Election Day.  How his supporters end up voting will also impact the final margin.

Finally, it's all about turnout.  In an odd-year election such as this, turnout can be the biggest wildcard - and it can produce some unexpected results.

All this said, the mathematical picture of this race bears an unmistakable light blue hue, and a Cucinelli win, at this point at least, must be considered an upset.

Filed under: 2013 Virginia Governor's Election 

posted by Scott Elliott at 9:10pm 09/17/13::
Thursday, August 22, 2013
Virginia governor's race: McAuliffe up 6 in latest poll
After over a month with nothing on the polling front in Virginia's 2013 race for governor, Quinnipiac has finally released a new poll.  The news is good for the blue team.  Democrat Terry McAuliffe leads Republican Ken Cuccinelli by 6 points, 48-42.  That's a slight uptick from his 4-point lead in July, and puts his advantage outside the margin of error.  Hopefully, there will be more polling data soon to confirm or dispute Quinnipiac's findings, but, for now, it looks like McAuliffe has a small but real summertime lead in this race.

Filed under: 2013 Virginia Governor's Election  Virginia Governor's Race 

posted by Scott Elliott at 1:27pm 08/22/13::
Tuesday, July 30, 2013
Virginia governor race update
I've been hoping to post some new polling news from this year's gubernatorial election in Virginia.  Alas, polls have been non-existent since my last post on the race.  The biggest news has been the scandals dragging down the candidates.  Both Republican Ken Cuccinelli and Democrat Terry McAuliffe have some significant baggage to overcome as they try to capture the Old Dominion's statehouse, though Cuccinelli's issues seem to be garnering more attention (imagine that) and could potentially be more harmful to him.

Here are the latest polls released over the last few weeks.

  • Quinnipiac, 7/11-15, McAuliffe 43, Cuccinelli 39 - McAuliffe +4
  • Public Policy (D), 7/11-14, McAuliffe 41, Cuccinelli 37 - McAuliffe +4
  • Roanoke College, 7/8-14, McAuliffe 33, Cuccinelli 39 - Cuccinelli +6
  • Rasmussen Reports, 6/5-6, McAuliffe 44, Cuccinelli 41 - McAuliffe +3
  • Clearly, the survey from Roanoke College looks like an outlier.  If that is the case, then it's also pretty clear McAuliffe holds a slight advantage.  And these numbers don't reflect any additional downward trending since the last polls were conducted that Cuccinelli may be experiencing from his association with Governor Bob McConnell's current woes.

    Filed under: 2013 Virginia Governor's Election 

    posted by Scott Elliott at 9:52pm 07/30/13::
    Thursday, July 18, 2013
    2013 gubernatorial elections - New Jersey and Virginia
    In an oxymoronic twist, New Jersey's Republican Governor Chris Christie is projected to win a second term in the statehouse by a landslide.  After his first victory in 2009, many strategists thought his re-election chances in the deep blue Garden State were doubtful at best.  Then came super storm Sandy and Christie's glowing compliments of President Obama in its aftermath.  (Are those cries of "betrayal" I hear echoing from Republican quarters?)  Now, just over 3 months away from Election Day, the incumbent enjoys 30+ point leads in most recent polls over Democratic nominee, state Senator Barbara Buono.  It's hard to imagine the level of crash Christie would have to experience to be removed from the governor's office.

    As one-sided as New Jersey's is, Virginia's gubernatorial contest is just the opposite.  Out-going Republican Governor Bob McConnell, term-limited after just 4 years in office, gave hint of the massive red wave of 2010 by clobbering Democrat Creigh Deeds 59% to 41% 12 months earlier.  This time, no such Republican landslide appears to be in the offing.  Instead, the blue team currently leads this race by a small margin.

    Former Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe is making a strong play to give Democrats a split in this year's two statehouse races.  Aside from a recent outlier poll from Roanoke College showing Republican nominee Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli with a 6-point edge, McAuliffe holds leads at or just outside the margin of error in all other polls taken over the last several weeks.  Moreover, Virginia's shift leftward over the last several cycles does not mix well with Cuccinelli's social conservatism.  Right now, I'd have to rate this race as a very Weak DEM Gain.  However, the GOP can yet hold this seat by taking advantage of lower voter turnout in off-year elections and President Obama's upside down approval ratings in the state.

    Filed under: 2013 Elections  2013 Virginia Governor's Election  2013 New Jersey Governor's Election 

    posted by Scott Elliott at 11:11pm 07/18/13::

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