Senate:  Frank's daughter Lisa's rise to and subsequent expansion of power in his old senate seat is evidence of the father's diminishing influence on Alaska's voters.  Initially criticized as a beneficiary of nepotism and still thought of as too moderate by some conservatives, the younger Murkowski has nevertheless flourished in her 7 years on Capitol Hill.  Earlier this year, she was asked to serve on the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee.  She is also the ranking member of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee.  Given that Murkowski was able to fend off Alaska's most formidable Democrat, Tony Knowles, in 2004 to win the seat she was appointed to, these prominent positions she now holds make her almost invulnerable in 2010.  You can make her re-election bid a Solid GOP Hold.  In fact, she's probably as safe as she can be for as long as she wants the job - unless she follows in her father's scandalous late-career footsteps.

Governor:  Sarah Palin, of 2008 Presidential Election and Saturday Night Live fame, is the one who toppled Frank Murkowski in the 2006 GOP primaries.  Her path from then until now is world-famous.  Back in July, she made her highly-publicized - and highly-scrutinized - exit from Alaska's governorship.  Speculation abounds as to her motives.  One theory advanced is that she wanted to help secure the statehouse for then-Lt. Governor Sean Parnell.  Her resignation elevated Parnell to governor and gave him the inside track in the 2010 governor's race.  Since assuming office, he has impressed Alaskans.  His favorability ratings were pegged at 80% by a Dittman poll conducted last month.  He won't win 80% of the vote next November, but I'm predicting he'll win enough votes for me to call this race a Solid GOP Hold as well.

House At-Large District:  All statewide races in Alaska won't be solid GOP holds.  Nineteen-term Congressman Don Young is in for a much closer race - if he doesn't choose to retire.  Once a tugboat captain, elementary school teacher and gold-miner, the man sometimes dubbed "Alaska's third senator" for his longevity in Alaska's sole House seat is no stranger to scandal himself, which was reflected in part by his uncustomarily close 5-point victory last year.  However, Alaska is a conservative state, and 2008 was a blue wave election.  All this considered, I don't see this seat changing party hands in 2010.  And that's a consensus held by all four of the pundits I use to project House races.  Nevertheless, with or without Young, this race should be competitive.  It starts off here at Election Projection as a Mod GOP Hold.

For the details, don't miss the Alaska State Page.

Next stop:  Arizona



Filed under:  Alaska  AK Senate  AK House  AK Governor