Here are the winners from the primary contest yesterday.

Senate:  Richard Shelby has been a solid conservative voice in Alabama since even before he switched parties back in the '90s.  He will remain such on Capitol Hill for another term.  His race for a fifth term will be a Solid GOP Hold.

Governor:  Term-limited incumbent Republican Bob Riley cannot seek a third term.  Without him in the race, the GOP will pick among several who have already declared intentions to run for the nomination.  Most boast solid credentials, and the primary winner will be the favorite to win next November.  On the other side, Artur Davis, U.S. Representative from AL CD-7 also brings legitimate credentials to his quest for the Democratic nomination.  He'll have to get past Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks to move on to the general election.  Regardless of whom each party selects, the GOP looks set to retain the Alabama statehouse.  Though not a shoo-in, I'll call this race a Strong GOP Hold.

House District 2:  This seat, located in the very Republican southeastern part of the state, provided one of the closest races in the nation in 2008.  Democrat Bobby Bright squeaked by Republican Jay Love by just 1800 votes out of over a quarter million cast.  Though I found no official GOP contestants yet in this race, any legitimate contender will most likely unseat the freshman congressman Bright.  District 2 - the first on my list of competitive House races - should turn red next year in a Weak GOP Gain and, hopefully, precede many more red flips to come.

House District 5:  Long time Democrat Congressman "Bud" Cramer retired in 2008, giving the GOP a reasonable opportunity to pick up his northern Alabama district.  Amid the blue wave a year ago, however, Republican Wayne Parker could not capitalize and lost a 4-point race to Parker Griffith.  For 2010, since I see a red wave of unknown strength on the horizon, I'm tempted to predict this one, like district 2, will likewise flip.  I sense, though, that such a prediction would be overly optimistic and, while a takeover is a solid possibility, my better judgment renders this race a Weak DEM Hold - at least preliminarily.

Be sure to keep track of these races and check out lots more great information on the Alabama state page.

Next stop:  Alaska



Filed under:  Alabama  AL Senate  AL House  AL Governor