As a result of all this goodness, Republicans picked up 3 more projected House seats in Saturday's update.  Alabama CD-2, Florida CD-22 and West Virginia CD-1 all moved from Weak DEM Hold to Weak GOP Gain.  This is good news, of course, for red team fans, but it is pertinent to note that in all three races the Republican candidate is ahead by less than one percent.  It wouldn't take much to move one or more of them back to blue.

For now though, the GOP is enjoying its largest net House gain to date.  Forty-six more Republicans are projected to earn a seat in the House come January.  The tally stands at 225 Republicans and 210 Democrats.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  Alabama  AL House  Florida  FL House  West Virginia  WV House 

In the House, changes abound.  Ayers, McHenry and Associates, a Republican-leaning polling firm, continued its tour across America, publishing several polls from House races in the Midwest.  Ohio CD-16, the race between Democratic incumbent John Boccieri and Republican challenger Jim Renacci, is red today due to Renacci's 49-35 lead in an Ayers McHenry survey of the district.

The third force of change in today's House ratings is a boatload of ratings changes released by CQPolitics yesterday.  The online magazine updated their rating of 37 House races, 33 in favor of the GOP.  As a result of a rating change from Lean DEM to Toss-up, Florida CD-2 is projected to go to recent GOP primary winner, Steve Southerland.

All today's changes do not benefit the Republicans, however.  Democratic incumbent Bobby Bright's competitive re-election bid in Alabama's 2nd district appears more likely to succeed after CQPolitics changed their outlook on his race from Toss-up to Lean DEM.  Taken together, then, the GOP gains one more net seat in today's House projection, moving the tally here at EP to 220 Democrats and 215 Republicans.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  AL House  CA Governor  FL House  OH House 

I had previously and incorrectly noted William Barnes as Robert Bentley's Democratic opponent.  Barnes is, in fact, running against Senator Richard Shelby.



Filed under:  House  Alabama  AL House 

A big change in the adjustment impacts the latest House projections, and the impact favors the GOP.  With an average lead by the generic Republican candidate increasing to 2.3%, the adjustment grows from 0.3 points to 1.1.  That's enough to push four more seats over to the red column in today's projections.  They include AL-2, ID-1, IL-14 and WV-1.  These newly-rosy districts move the overall House projection to 226 Democrats and 205 Republicans.  At 30, the net seat gain is at a highwater mark so far this cycle for the GOP.  Still, they would need 9 more to capture the majority in the House.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  House  AL House  ID House  IL House  WV House 

Here are the winners from the primary contest yesterday.

Senate:  Richard Shelby has been a solid conservative voice in Alabama since even before he switched parties back in the '90s.  He will remain such on Capitol Hill for another term.  His race for a fifth term will be a Solid GOP Hold.

Governor:  Term-limited incumbent Republican Bob Riley cannot seek a third term.  Without him in the race, the GOP will pick among several who have already declared intentions to run for the nomination.  Most boast solid credentials, and the primary winner will be the favorite to win next November.  On the other side, Artur Davis, U.S. Representative from AL CD-7 also brings legitimate credentials to his quest for the Democratic nomination.  He'll have to get past Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks to move on to the general election.  Regardless of whom each party selects, the GOP looks set to retain the Alabama statehouse.  Though not a shoo-in, I'll call this race a Strong GOP Hold.

House District 2:  This seat, located in the very Republican southeastern part of the state, provided one of the closest races in the nation in 2008.  Democrat Bobby Bright squeaked by Republican Jay Love by just 1800 votes out of over a quarter million cast.  Though I found no official GOP contestants yet in this race, any legitimate contender will most likely unseat the freshman congressman Bright.  District 2 - the first on my list of competitive House races - should turn red next year in a Weak GOP Gain and, hopefully, precede many more red flips to come.

House District 5:  Long time Democrat Congressman "Bud" Cramer retired in 2008, giving the GOP a reasonable opportunity to pick up his northern Alabama district.  Amid the blue wave a year ago, however, Republican Wayne Parker could not capitalize and lost a 4-point race to Parker Griffith.  For 2010, since I see a red wave of unknown strength on the horizon, I'm tempted to predict this one, like district 2, will likewise flip.  I sense, though, that such a prediction would be overly optimistic and, while a takeover is a solid possibility, my better judgment renders this race a Weak DEM Hold - at least preliminarily.

Be sure to keep track of these races and check out lots more great information on the Alabama state page.

Next stop:  Alaska



Filed under:  Alabama  AL Senate  AL House  AL Governor