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  Politics and Elections
   2012 Elections - Alabama Presidential Race
Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Alabama and Mississippi primary results
The returns are still coming in, but at 10:35pm on primary night, Rick Santorum appears headed to victory in two key southern states, Alabama and Mississippi.  Even though front runner Mitt Romney has fallen to third place in both races, it is Newt Gingrich who stands to lose the most should the current results hold.  After winning South Carolina and Georgia - and nothing else - Gingrich's campaign faced must wins in the South tonight.  It looks like he won't be getting them.  And with Santorum leading, there will be added pressure for Newt to close up shop on this year's bid for the Republican presidential nomination.

Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  2012 GOP Primaries  Alabama 2012  AL President 2012  Mississippi 2012  MS President 2012 

posted by Scott Elliott at 10:41pm 03/13/12::
Monday, March 12, 2012
Alabama primary election polls and predictions
This one is very hard to call.  All three of the top candidates for the Republican presidential nomination have a legitimate chance to win Alabama tomorrow.  The majority of polls testing this race have been conducted in the last several days, so identifying a trend is difficult.  Take a look at these numbers and you can see just how close this race is.
Alabama Republican Primary Polls
  State Romney Santorum Gingrich Spread
  Public Policy (D) 31 29 30 Romney +1
  Rasmussen 28 29 30 Gingrich +1
  Alabama State 20 17 21 Gingrich +1
How would you like to try to predict this primary?  Those numbers are so close that it's anybody's guess, really.  But I'm a sucker for predictions, so here we go - just don't let too much ride on them.
  • Newt Gingrich - 32%
  • Rick Santorum - 31%
  • Mitt Romney - 30%
  • Ron Paul - 7%
As for the delegates to be awarded, don't expect any one of the top three to run away with a comfortable margin.  Alabama's district level, hybrid "winner-take-all or most" format should make for a very even distribution of the 47 of 50 delegates up for grabs in the state tomorrow.

Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  2012 GOP Primaries  Alabama 2012  AL President 2012 

posted by Scott Elliott at 7:30pm 03/12/12::
Thursday, March 8, 2012
Republican Presidential Nomination - upcoming battles
The first post-Super-Tuesday engagements in the continuing saga that is the 2012 Republican presidential nomination process will be this weekend.  On Saturday, four different caucuses are on tap.  Only one of them, Kansas, is "stateside."  The other three will be conducted in overseas territories of the United States, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Northern Marianas and Guam.  Saturday's delegate counts are 40 for Kansas and 9 for each of the offshore elections.

The next primaries will be on Tuesday, March 13 when Alabama and Mississippi will hold their nomination contests.  Also on the schedule Tuesday are American Samoa and Hawaii They will hold nominating caucuses that day.  The delegate counts for Tuesday's elections are 50 for Alabama, 40 for Mississippi, 20 for Hawaii and 9 for American Samoa.

For more details on the GOP primary elections, see Election Projection's Republican Presidential Nomination page.

Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  2012 GOP Primaries  AL President 2012  KS President 2012  MS President 2012 

posted by Scott Elliott at 9:50pm 03/08/12::
Monday, November 7, 2011
Alabama 2012 Preview
Election Projection's 2012 edition of the "Tour of the 50 States" begins in Alabama.

Reapportionment and Redistricting:  Alabama's congressional seat count remained unchanged at seven as a result of the 2010 census.  This gulf coast state will have nine electoral votes to add to the presidential race.  The redistricting process here produced no obvious partisan advantage.

President:  This state has been reliably Republican for a generation.  Jimmy Carter, back in 1976, was the last Democrat to carry Alabama.  In 2012, we should see another deep red vote.  Not much drama here - Solid GOP Hold.

Senate:  There is no senate race in 2012.  GOP Senator Jeff Sessions will be up for 4th term in 2014 and his 6-term GOP colleague Richard Shelby's current term won't end until 2017.

Governor:  Alabama's first-term governor, Republican Robert Bentley, will be up for re-election in 2014.

House:  None of Alabama's seven House seats look to be competitive in 2012.  That means the current breakdown of 6 Republicans and 1 Democrat should carry over to next cycle.

For more details, check out Alabama's state page.

Next tour stop: Alaska

Filed under:  Alabama 2012  AL President 2012 

posted by Scott Elliott at 10:25pm 11/07/11::

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