Highlights:  Blanche Lincoln could not manage 50% of the vote last night.  As a result, she will face Lt. Governor Bill Halter in a pivotal battle June 8.  On the Republican side, John Boozman avoided the time and expense of a primary runoff by capturing just over 50% of the GOP vote yesterday.

Then just yesterday, Mason Dixon released a poll showing her losing to two GOP challengers and barely keeping her head above water against three or four more.  Finally, this approval rating poll comes out today pegging her approval/disapproval at 38% to 56%.  Reaffirming a nationwide trend against Democrats, independents in the poll disapprove of her job performance by an overwhelming 69% to 24% margin.  Any sitting politician would be hard-pressed to win an election with those numbers.

While the pollster in the that survey is Republican, the last approval poll three months ago by the same outfit gave her a split 45/45 mark.  The tide is clearly moving against Lincoln.  As a result, Election Projection is changing the preliminary rating of this race from Mod DEM Hold to Weak GOP Gain. This change moves the projected Senate tally to 52 Democrats, 46 Republicans and 2 Independents, a net 5-seat gain in addition to Scott Brown's pick-up in Massachusetts this week.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  Senate  Arkansas  AR Senate 

Senate:  Democrat Blanche Lincoln is a case in point.  First elected senator in 1998 by 13 points, she won re-election in 2004 - a strong GOP year - by 12.  Next year, her quest for a third term will be a classic wave race.  Though not comfortable, Lincoln begins the 2010 race in a solid position.  How much that position is threatened depends on the size of the red wave on Election Day.  I liken this race to Elizabeth Dole's failed re-election bid in 2008.  She looked pretty safe in November of 2007 and still maintained an advantage through much of the summer.  Then, as the election neared and the blue wave began to swell, her position became more and more precarious.  Near the end, her Democratic opponent, Kay Hagan, had moved ahead of her, and a late-season attack ad blunder sealed her defeat.  I'm not saying defeat is necessarily in Lincoln's future, but should the red wave become comparable to last year's blue one, a strong GOP challenger could sneak in and snatch this one away.  For now, though, we'll keep this one in the Democratic column by a 6-8 point margin, a Mod DEM Hold.

Governor:  Three years ago, Democrat Mike Beebe bested Republican Asa Hutchinson convincingly.  Term-limited Governor Mike Huckabee left an empty chief executive position behind that year as he sought higher office.  The size of Beebe's victory was indicative of the strong Democratic showing in general.  With no wind at his back, Beebe could have been vulnerable in 2010.  However, his popularity since assuming the top state job and the Arkansas GOP's practice of giving up on races they don't think they can win provide Beebe with a clear path to re-election.  It'll be an easy Solid DEM Hold for the incumbent.

House Races:  None of Arkansas' four districts is competitive, but they do offer a unique phenomenon.  In 2008, all four congressmen - 3 Democrats and 1 Republican - were unopposed by anyone from the other party.  In fact, even Senator Mark Pryor skipped to re-election without a Republican challenger.

Update:  Due to recent polling and pundit considerations, I am adding Vic Snyder's seat in Arkansas' CD-2 to the list of competitive House races.  Snyder, who has breezed through all but one of his previous 6 re-election bids, is barely leading three unknown Republicans.  It would be hard to deny this race is at least competitive and worthy of tracking here at Election Projection.  We'll start it off as a Mod DEM Hold.

Keep up with Arkansas races and find out lots more interesting Arkansas political stuff by checking the Arkansas state page often.

Next stop: California



Filed under:  Arkansas  AR Senate  AR House  AR Governor