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  Politics and Elections
   2012 Elections - Arizona Races
Tuesday, June 12, 2012

Big day today - lots of primaries and Gabby's seat is up for grabs
A big day is in store today for election fans across the nation.  The party nominees for several interesting November battles will be decided today, along with a special election to fill a vacant seat in Arizona.

Most of you are aware of Gabrielle Giffords' tragic, life-threatening gunshot wound suffered at the hands of a misguided psycho early last year.  After a courageous recovery, the remarkable woman returned to her congressional seat representing Arizona's 8th district.  Then early this year, she decided to resign from that seat stating that she has "more work to do on my recovery before I can again serve in elected office."

The vacancy her departure leaves behind will be filled today by a special election.  Indications are that a tight election will ensue.  While I could find no polls on the race, my hunch is that the Democratic candidate, Giffords’s former district director Ron Barber, will prevail over 2010 nominee and Iraq War veteran Jesse Kelly.  Kelly's attacks on Giffords during their battle 2 years ago are front and center in this contest.  The attacks, while nothing unusual under normal circumstances, are hurting him this time given the tragedy Giffords faced since then.

On the primary front, a couple of important battles will take place today.  In Virginia, George Allen and Tim Kaine are expected to formalize their duel for the Senate seat of outgoing Democrat Jim Webb.  And in Nevada, interim Republican Senator Dean Heller and Democratic Congresswoman Shelley Berkley look to fill the slate for November's Senate battle in the Silver State.  Primaries are also being held in Maine, North Dakota and South Dakota.

In the coming days, I'll be updating the state pages for these states to reflect the results of today's primaries as well as the special election in Arizona.

Filed under:  Senate '12  Arizona 2012  2012 House  NV Senate 2012  VA Senate 2012  Virginia 2012  Nevada 2012 

posted by Scott Elliott at 10:49am 06/12/12::
Wednesday, February 29, 2012
Romney takes two, Arizona and Michigan primary results
Last night saw Mitt Romney fend off a strong challenge in Michigan by Rick Santorum.  After falling well behind a couple weeks out from this critical Republican nomination battle, Romney more than made up lost ground over the last few days to forge a close but significant win in his native state.  Even though he'll largely split the delegates there due to Michigan's proportional allotment system, the momentum he'll enjoy from the victory is no small thing.  Being on the top line of the results affords him the chance to maintain, and even solidify, his front runner status.  Had he not prevailed, Santorum would have stolen the news cycle, and Romney would have been forced to go on the defensive.  Instead, Romney will be able to continue to bash Obama rather than focusing solely on his primary opponents.  To that point, Romney's victory speech last night included a plethora of digs at the President while excluding completely any mention of Santorum, Gingrich or Paul.

In Arizona, Romney's convincing 20-point victory was not unexpected, though the overwhelming margin was a bit of a surprise.  Until mid-February, Romney led Santorum by a couple dozen and appeared set to breeze to the win there.  Then, overnight, polls showed Santorum closing the gap dramatically.  At one point, Romney's average lead in the polls had dwindled to just 5 points.  That was a week ago.  At that point, Romney once again regained the upper hand in the polls, and his projected victory steadily swelled to the low double-digits.  The trend was definitely in his favor, but a 20-point margin is well outside where the aggregate stood when the polls opened yesterday.

The bottom line from yesterday: Romney confirmed his front runner status by taking both primaries, and any chance of him losing the nomination now lies with Santorum's performance in Ohio on Super Tuesday in six days.  Currently, Santorum's lead there is in the high single digits.  Expect that margin to tighten on the wings of Romney's victories last night.  If Romney can overtake Santorum in the Buckeye state, call it a night and turn out the lights.  It'll be time for Republicans to concentrate on beating Obama.

Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  2012 GOP Primaries  Arizona 2012  AZ President 2012  Michigan 2012  MI President 2012  2012 Super Tuesday 

posted by Scott Elliott at 9:27am 02/29/12::
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
Michigan and Arizona Republican primary election results
Starting sometime after polls close tonight you can track the returns in Arizona and Michigan at the following links. Polls close in Arizona at 9pm EST. Polls close in Michigan at 8pm EST.

Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  2012 GOP Primaries  Arizona 2012  AZ President 2012  Michigan 2012  MI President 2012 

posted by Scott Elliott at 9:51am 02/28/12::
Monday, February 27, 2012
Michigan and Arizona Republican primary predictions
Here are Election Projection's predictions for tomorrow's Republican primary elections in Michigan and Arizona.  The Grand Canyon state is easy to peg - Romney will win easily, of course.  The Great Lakes state is more difficult to predict.  Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum have gone back and forth over the last couple weeks, and the very latest trend seems to be settling squarely on the "it's anybody's game" spot.

But, if you've read me for long, you know I can't resist picking a winner even in the closest of toss-ups.  So here we go again.

Michigan Republican Primary Predictions

  • Mitt Romney - 39%
  • Rick Santorum - 38%
  • Ron Paul - 13%
  • Newt Gingrich - 10%

Arizona Republican Primary Predictions

  • Mitt Romney - 44%
  • Rick Santorum - 28%
  • Newt Gingrich - 18%
  • Ron Paul - 10%

Check back later for links to the Arizona and Michigan primary results.

Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  2012 GOP Primaries  Arizona 2012  AZ President 2012  Michigan 2012  MI President 2012 

posted by Scott Elliott at 10:35pm 02/27/12::
Latest Arizona Republican primary polls
Tomorrow, voters in Arizona will cast their ballots for one of four Republican candidates still in the race for the GOP nomination and the chance to battle President Barack Obama in the general election.  For much of the primary season, Mitt Romney has held a very large lead in the Grand Canyon state.  Then in mid February, Rick Santorum quickly closed the gap to 5 or 6 points. Since then, however, Romney has steadily stretched his lead back out.  On the eve of the primary, Romney's advantage is in the 13-14 point range.

Here are the latest polls out on tomorrow's contest.

Arizona Republican Primary Polls
Poll Dates Romney Santorum Spread
Average 41.4 28.2 Romney +13.2
PPP (D) 2/17-2/19 36 33 Romney +3
WeAskAmerica 2/19-2/20 37 27 Romney +10
Rasmussen 2/23-2/23 42 29 Romney +13
NBC/Marist 2/19-2/20 43 27 Romney +16
CNN/Time 2/17-2/20 36 32 Romney +4
I'll be posting Election Projection's predictions for Arizona later this evening.  Poll data courtesy of RealClearPolitics.com

Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  2012 GOP Primaries  Arizona 2012  AZ President 2012 

posted by Scott Elliott at 7:22pm 02/27/12::
Saturday, February 25, 2012
GOP presidential nomination: Santorum's momentum stalls in Michigan, Arizona
Mitt Romney has seen his frontrunner status severely challenged by Rick Santorum recently.  Polls for upcoming primary battles last week showed Santorum gaining ground on him in Arizona and passing him in Michigan. The latter is considered to be pivotal for Romney since it is his home state.

Over the last several days, Santorum's momentum appears to have stalled, and Romney looks to be on the rise again. In Arizona, where Santorum cut a 30-point lead to just 5 on Feb 20, Romney has moved out to a double-digit lead in the latest three polls.

Arizona Republican Primary Polls
Poll Dates Romney Santorum Spread
Average 38.8 29.6 Romney +9.2
Rasmussen 2/23-2/23 42 29 Romney +13
NBC/Marist 2/19-2/20 43 27 Romney +16
WeAskAmerica 2/19-2/20 37 27 Romney +10
CNN/Time 2/17-2/20 36 32 Romney +4
PPP (D) 2/17-2/19 36 33 Romney +3
In Michigan, the reversal is even more striking because Santorum's rise there actually put him ahead by 9 points just 10 days ago. Now, Romney has moved back in front by a couple points, and, if the trends continue this weekend and into Monday, he should see that lead extended to several points by primary election day on Tuesday.
Michigan Republican Primary Polls
Poll Dates Romney Santorum Spread
Average 35.2 33.6 Romney +1.6
Rasmussen 2/23-2/23 40 34 Romney +6
Rosetta Stone 2/13-2/23 36 33 Romney +3
DFP/WXYZ 2/18-2/21 34 37 Romney +3
NBC/Marist 2/19-2/20 37 35 Romney +2
WeAskAmerica 2/19-2/19 29 29 Tie
Polling data thanks to RealClearPolitics.com

Filed under:  2012 GOP Primaries  Arizona 2012  AZ President 2012  Michigan 2012  MI President 2012  Mitt Romney  Rick Santorum 

posted by Scott Elliott at 12:08pm 02/25/12::
Thursday, February 23, 2012
VIDEO: CNN Arizona Republican Debate
Last night's Republican debate in Arizona is online.  You can watch it in its entirety here.

Filed under:  2012 GOP Primaries  Arizona 2012  AZ President 2012 

posted by Scott Elliott at 11:01am 02/23/12::
Friday, November 11, 2011
Arizona 2012 Preview - updated
The "Tour of the 50 States" moves from the cold arctic to the hot desert today as we take a first look at Arizona.

Reapportionment and Redistricting:  Arizona's population increased enough between 2000 and 2010 to garner an extra congressional district this year.  The new district brings the state's delegation to nine.  Charlie Cook's assessment of the resulting redistricting process reports that Democrats should gain the additional seat.

Presidential Race:  Democrat Bill Clinton won Arizona in 1996, breaking a string of GOP victories dating back to Harry Truman.  Since then, the GOP has started another winning streak here, winning the last three presidential elections.  Expect another mildly comfortable win for the Republican nominee in 2012. Strong GOP Hold.

Senate:  When Republican Senator Jon Kyl decided to retire earlier this year, this senate seat lost its invulnerable status.  Still, the GOP has a decided advantage in the race and it should stay in the red column.  Candidate caliber and presidential focus here from the national parties will impact how competitive this race turns out to be.  For now, we'll call it a Mod GOP Hold.

Governor:  In 2010, Jan Brewer, Republican, won election to a full term as governor.  The champion of illegal immigration control cannot run for another term in 2014.  Since she served a partial term before being re-elected, Arizona law says she is serving her second term currently and, thus, is term-limited.

House:  Congressional races in Arizona have been marked in recent memory by an abundance of close races.  This cycle should be no different.  Election Projection starts off the election season with 4 of 9 states on the hotly-contested list.  First is District 1 where freshman Republican Paul Gosar faces a rematch against former Congresswoman Anne Kirkpatrick.  This race starts off as a Mod GOP Hold.  Next we move to District 5.  In an interesting development here, incumbent Dave Schweikert is now running in District 6, leaving behind a competitive open seat.  Democrats have a decent chance to pick up this Weak GOP Hold.

Third, District 8 representative, Gabrielle Giffords, the congresswoman who has fought gallantly to recover from an idiot's senseless violence, seems to be a perennial occupant of EP's House race list.  I'm not sure how this race will pan out, but, even as a Republican, I almost wish Giffords would be granted this seat for as long as she wants it.  But elections aren't run that way, so, for now, call it a Mod DEM Hold.  Finally, there's the new seat, District 9.  Using the Cook assessment I mentioned earlier where the Democrats are projected to pick up a seat in Arizona and given that EP projects no other seats to flip sides, this new District starts off as a Weak DEM Gain, mostly by default.  We'll know much more once the redistricting battles are complete.

Don't miss the Arizona state page for lots more information.

Next tour stop: Arkansas

Update:  Charlie Cook's latest House ratings update has removed Giffords' race from the competitive category.  As a result, I have removed it from my list as well.  Among the pundits I use to compute my House projections, only Larry Sabato continues to carry AZ-8 as competitive.

Filed under:  Arizona 2012  AZ President 2012  AZ Senate 2012  AZ House 2012 

posted by Scott Elliott at 11:33pm 11/11/11::
Thursday, February 10, 2011
Incumbent Jon Kyl out of the 2012 mix for Arizona Senate seat
On the heels of yesterday's announcement in Virginia that Democrat Jim Webb has decided to retire at the end of this term, another senator - this time a Republican - makes public his decision to forego a run at re-election to the Senate.  Jon Kyl, a solid bet to keep his Arizona Senate seat, will also retire.  His seat doesn't immediately become competitive, but Democrats will be happy to challenge a non-incumbent instead of the popular three-term senator.

Filed under:  2012 Elections  Senate '12  Arizona 2012  AZ Senate 2012 

posted by Scott Elliott at 11:40pm 02/10/11::

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