Since I had been keeping up with changes made by the other three on my pundit panel, CQ Politics' new set of updates, numbering 31-2 in favor of the GOP, had a major impact on EP's projections in the House.  Several races had moved to the brink of flipping with the other pundits' changes.  In five races, a fourth pundit update was the catalyst to flip them to red.  Those five include Arizona CD-8, New Jersey CD-3, Ohio CD-18, Pennsylvania CD-10 and Texas CD-23.  All five move from Weak DEM Hold to Weak GOP Gain giving Republicans the largest projected net gain of House seats so far at 53.  The House tally stands at Republicans 232 and 203 Democrats.  That's precisely what the House count was on Election Eve in 2006 (counting Bernie Sanders' socialist seat in Vermont among the Democrats).



Filed under:  Ratings changes  House  AZ House  NJ House  OH House  PA House  TX House 

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Combine Sabato's changes and Ayers/McHenry's polls, and mix in a new ten-count of rating changes from Charlie Cook, and you have the perfect recipe for the first projected GOP House majority since early 2006.  Five new seats are colored red in today's EP update, two more than the GOP needs to demote Speaker Nancy Pelosi and regain control of the House.

On the weight of Ayers' polling, two seats in Arizona (CD-1 and CD-5) move from Weak DEM Hold to Weak GOP Gain.  Sabato's update to the SC-5 race produces the same outcome, and rolling off an old poll favoring incumbent Democrat Baron Hill in Indiana's 9th district switches that race as well.  Rounding out the changes, Pennsylvania CD-8 moves to red thanks to a GOP poll giving Michael Fitzpatrick a 7-point lead over incumbent Patrick Murphy.

The new House tally stands at 220 Republicans and 215 Democrats.  That's a net gain of 41 seats.  By the way, Sabato and Cook offered 39 rating changes, taken together.  Every one of them favored the Republicans.  This wave that is already of tidal proportions continues to strengthen.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  AZ House  IN House  PA House  SC House 

The strongest candidate also failed to win the nod in CD-5, Harry Mitchell's district.  But as in district 1, that may not matter this year.  David Schweikert will be the one to test the strength of the red wave here in November.  Then there's CD-8.  For the third time in as many races in the Grand Canyon State, the weaker general election candidate took the nomination.  According to Karl Raszewski, political media strategist and EP's "on the ground" reporter, incumbent Gabrielle Giffords can breathe a bit easier knowing she'll face Jesse Kelly, a one-issue (border security) candidate, instead of conservative State Senator Jonathan Paton.

Currently, all three of these seats are projected to stay in Democratic hands, albeit by slim margins.

Florida's results yesterday were much more GOP-friendly.  In CD-2, the contested primary actually took place on the Democratic side where incumbent Allen Boyd narrowly withstood a strong challenge from Al Lawson.  Ironically, GOP nominee Steve Southerland will likely have a better shot to take the seat now that Boyd has survived.  Another positive primary result - at least for GOP fans - came down in Alan Grayson's eighth district.  Daniel Webster, a favorite of Marco Rubio conservatives, won the nomination over Crist backers' man, Kurt Kelly.  Grayson is not expected to prevail in November, an outlook that became more likely with Webster's win.

In CD-25, a rare vulnerable Republican seat, the strongest Republican candidate, David Rivera, won easily but now faces a serious challenge from Democrat Joe Garcia.  This race should be a tight one all the way to November 2nd.  The projection here stands at Mod GOP Hold, but don't be surprised for this one to buck the national trend and move toward blue as we move toward Election Day.



Filed under:  House  Arizona  AZ House  Florida  FL House 

Senate:  After a grueling 2008, GOP presidential nominee John McCain is back at his day job as U.S. Senator from Arizona.  Next year he seeks to keep that job for a fifth term. At 73, he's one of the older senators, but age will not keep him from running again.  (He was quoted recently saying, "What else am I going to do?")  He should not have much trouble getting his fifth term.  Currently, only Rudy Garcia, a former mayor of a small town in California is competing against him, though several more-credentialed challengers may decide to give it a go.  For now, I designate this race a Solid GOP Hold.  One interesting note on this race is that McCain does face primary competition, most notably from Chris Simcox of Minutemen fame.

Governor:  Jan Brewer spent many years in the Arizona state legislature where she championed the establishment of the office of Lieutenant Governor.  Arizona is one of six states that has none.  Ironically, the inability to get that legislation passed paved the way for her to become governor.  In 2002, Brewer won election as Secretary of State and, courtesy of Arizona's order of succession, became Arizona's chief executive when then-governor Democrat Janet Napolitano joined President Obama's cabinet as Secretary of Homeland Security.  Next November, Governor Brewer will be seeking to earn that title via election for the first time.  Standing in her way are several contenders from both parties.  I'd give Brewer a clear advantage to win the GOP nominee early on and a reasonable chance to retain her governorship.  Even so, it should be competitive; call it an intriguing race and a Weak GOP Hold.

House District 5:  Back in 2006, I had the opportunity to sit with Republican J. D. Hayworth at a conservative leadership conference I attended.  At the time, he was the incumbent in this smallish district east of Phoenix, and his race was barely on my radar.  That was just as the blue wave was forming.  He could sense, though, that a very difficult race lay ahead.  Indeed it did.  By the time election night 2006 rolled around, that blue wave swept the country and gave Democrat Harry Mitchell the seat Hayworth defended.  Two years later, with the nation awash in another blue wave, Mitchell held onto the seat, winning by a comfortable 9 points over GOP nominee David Schweikert.  A wave of a different color is on the horizon, and the strength of Mr. Mitchell will be tested.  So far, only Schweikert has declared a run in this race.  Thus, I'll give the incumbent a Mod DEM Hold.  But, depending on how strong the red wave is come November, this race might slide into the GOP pick-up category.

Catch more information on these and other races at the Arizona state page.

Next stop: Arkansas



Filed under:  Arizona  AZ Senate  AZ House  AZ Governor