Senate:  After a grueling 2008, GOP presidential nominee John McCain is back at his day job as U.S. Senator from Arizona.  Next year he seeks to keep that job for a fifth term. At 73, he's one of the older senators, but age will not keep him from running again.  (He was quoted recently saying, "What else am I going to do?")  He should not have much trouble getting his fifth term.  Currently, only Rudy Garcia, a former mayor of a small town in California is competing against him, though several more-credentialed challengers may decide to give it a go.  For now, I designate this race a Solid GOP Hold.  One interesting note on this race is that McCain does face primary competition, most notably from Chris Simcox of Minutemen fame.

Governor:  Jan Brewer spent many years in the Arizona state legislature where she championed the establishment of the office of Lieutenant Governor.  Arizona is one of six states that has none.  Ironically, the inability to get that legislation passed paved the way for her to become governor.  In 2002, Brewer won election as Secretary of State and, courtesy of Arizona's order of succession, became Arizona's chief executive when then-governor Democrat Janet Napolitano joined President Obama's cabinet as Secretary of Homeland Security.  Next November, Governor Brewer will be seeking to earn that title via election for the first time.  Standing in her way are several contenders from both parties.  I'd give Brewer a clear advantage to win the GOP nominee early on and a reasonable chance to retain her governorship.  Even so, it should be competitive; call it an intriguing race and a Weak GOP Hold.

House District 5:  Back in 2006, I had the opportunity to sit with Republican J. D. Hayworth at a conservative leadership conference I attended.  At the time, he was the incumbent in this smallish district east of Phoenix, and his race was barely on my radar.  That was just as the blue wave was forming.  He could sense, though, that a very difficult race lay ahead.  Indeed it did.  By the time election night 2006 rolled around, that blue wave swept the country and gave Democrat Harry Mitchell the seat Hayworth defended.  Two years later, with the nation awash in another blue wave, Mitchell held onto the seat, winning by a comfortable 9 points over GOP nominee David Schweikert.  A wave of a different color is on the horizon, and the strength of Mr. Mitchell will be tested.  So far, only Schweikert has declared a run in this race.  Thus, I'll give the incumbent a Mod DEM Hold.  But, depending on how strong the red wave is come November, this race might slide into the GOP pick-up category.

Catch more information on these and other races at the Arizona state page.

Next stop: Arkansas



Filed under:  Arizona  AZ Senate  AZ House  AZ Governor