In the House, changes abound.  Ayers, McHenry and Associates, a Republican-leaning polling firm, continued its tour across America, publishing several polls from House races in the Midwest.  Ohio CD-16, the race between Democratic incumbent John Boccieri and Republican challenger Jim Renacci, is red today due to Renacci's 49-35 lead in an Ayers McHenry survey of the district.

The third force of change in today's House ratings is a boatload of ratings changes released by CQPolitics yesterday.  The online magazine updated their rating of 37 House races, 33 in favor of the GOP.  As a result of a rating change from Lean DEM to Toss-up, Florida CD-2 is projected to go to recent GOP primary winner, Steve Southerland.

All today's changes do not benefit the Republicans, however.  Democratic incumbent Bobby Bright's competitive re-election bid in Alabama's 2nd district appears more likely to succeed after CQPolitics changed their outlook on his race from Toss-up to Lean DEM.  Taken together, then, the GOP gains one more net seat in today's House projection, moving the tally here at EP to 220 Democrats and 215 Republicans.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  AL House  CA Governor  FL House  OH House 

Senate:  Barbara Boxer first won election to the Senate in 1992 after serving 5 terms in the House.  She is a staunch and outspoken liberal and a favorite target of the GOP.  Despite this, she won re-election by 10 points in 1998 and 20 in 2004.  Next year might prove to be a bit more difficult for the diminutive senator.  Polls show her approval ratings well below 50% and support for her re-election at about the same level.  On the GOP side, former Hewlett-Packard Chief, Carly Fiorina, joins two California state legislators campaigning for the nomination.  The winner of that contest should provide Boxer with solid competition in November.  That said, this is California - so give it to Boxer at the moment in a Mod DEM Hold.

Governor:  The Governator is a year or so away from finishing his second term in Sacramento.  California's two-term limit means his tenure will be terminated in January, 2011.  (Ok, I'll dispense with the Schwarznegger movie puns!)  At the moment, the only confirmed Democrat is Richard Aguirre, a relative no-name whose website has no mention of previous public service.  If he gets the Democratic nomination, the GOP might actually hold this governorship.  That is highly unlikely, though, with the top job in the largest state at stake.  One possible entry is former Governor Jerry Brown.  If he enters the race, he'll probably win it all.  Even though a couple of legitimate Republican contenders have entered the race - including former eBay chief Meg Whitman - I just don't see the statehouse staying in the red column.  On the other hand, considering how Ahnold began to the left of conservative and moved farther left as time went by, it's hard to think of this as a takeover.  Nevertheless, he does have an "R" beside his name, so we have to call it a Mod DEM Gain.

House Districts:  With 53 districts up for grabs, California's congressional delegation should remain remarkably stable.  Even though Election Projection will start off tracking 5 seats, just 2 are classified as "Weak."  They are Dan Lungren's seat in CD-3, and Ken Calvert's seat in CD-44.  Both incumbents are Republican. 

District 3:  Lungren has served three terms in this district (9 terms overall).  In his last two races, he has seen his share of the vote decline from 62% in 2004 to 59% in 2006 to under 50% in 2008.  Even in the blue wave election last year, he won by 5 points.  With the wind at his back next year, he shouldn't have any trouble winning re-election next year.  He can't feel too secure, though, when all four pundits in my calculations rate this race as "lean."  This race starts off as a Weak GOP Hold as a result.

District 44:  An interesting rematch is brewing in CD-44 next year.  After garnering at least 60% of the vote for three straight elections, Ken Calvert barely eaked out a victory over Democrat Bill Hedrick by a scant 2.4% last year.  Hedrick is back for another attempt to unseat Calvert in this Southern California district that usually votes strongly for the GOP.  Obama's convincing victory nationally included a one-point advantage in this district.  A fact which undoubtedly helped shrink Calvert's margin of victory.  This race starts off as a Weak GOP Hold, but I won't be surprised to see it - and the third district as well - move to more a comfortable GOP rating before the votes are cast.

Other possibly competitive races in California include Jerry McNerney's 11th, Mary Bono Mack's 45th, and Loretta Sanchez's 47th districts.  Of the three, Bono Mack is the lone Republican.  Please check out the California state page for more information.

Next stop:  Colorado



Filed under:  California  CA Senate  CA House  CA Governor