And then there are three additional seats leaning slightly toward the Democrats.  Some more optimistic political observers might disagree with me that California, Washington and Wisconsin are not also toss-ups, but I still see Boxer, Murray and Feingold as favorites in those races.  Until more polling indicates differently, I will continue to hold that opinion.  That said, a couple of polls released this week have moved two of those three seats into the red column.  California and Washington are both colored crimson this morning as a result of a SurveyUSA poll from California and a Rasmussen poll out of Washington.

These two polls and the resulting projection updates are not enough to convince me Republicans will win those races, but it is certainly encouraging that the data now projects GOP victories there.  These updates are pivotal in that they move the balance of power in the Senate to 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats and 2 Independents.  Since the independents caucus with the Democrats, the GOP needs just one more seat to earn the majority.  Remarkable.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  California  CA Senate  Washington  WA Senate 

Senate:  Barbara Boxer first won election to the Senate in 1992 after serving 5 terms in the House.  She is a staunch and outspoken liberal and a favorite target of the GOP.  Despite this, she won re-election by 10 points in 1998 and 20 in 2004.  Next year might prove to be a bit more difficult for the diminutive senator.  Polls show her approval ratings well below 50% and support for her re-election at about the same level.  On the GOP side, former Hewlett-Packard Chief, Carly Fiorina, joins two California state legislators campaigning for the nomination.  The winner of that contest should provide Boxer with solid competition in November.  That said, this is California - so give it to Boxer at the moment in a Mod DEM Hold.

Governor:  The Governator is a year or so away from finishing his second term in Sacramento.  California's two-term limit means his tenure will be terminated in January, 2011.  (Ok, I'll dispense with the Schwarznegger movie puns!)  At the moment, the only confirmed Democrat is Richard Aguirre, a relative no-name whose website has no mention of previous public service.  If he gets the Democratic nomination, the GOP might actually hold this governorship.  That is highly unlikely, though, with the top job in the largest state at stake.  One possible entry is former Governor Jerry Brown.  If he enters the race, he'll probably win it all.  Even though a couple of legitimate Republican contenders have entered the race - including former eBay chief Meg Whitman - I just don't see the statehouse staying in the red column.  On the other hand, considering how Ahnold began to the left of conservative and moved farther left as time went by, it's hard to think of this as a takeover.  Nevertheless, he does have an "R" beside his name, so we have to call it a Mod DEM Gain.

House Districts:  With 53 districts up for grabs, California's congressional delegation should remain remarkably stable.  Even though Election Projection will start off tracking 5 seats, just 2 are classified as "Weak."  They are Dan Lungren's seat in CD-3, and Ken Calvert's seat in CD-44.  Both incumbents are Republican. 

District 3:  Lungren has served three terms in this district (9 terms overall).  In his last two races, he has seen his share of the vote decline from 62% in 2004 to 59% in 2006 to under 50% in 2008.  Even in the blue wave election last year, he won by 5 points.  With the wind at his back next year, he shouldn't have any trouble winning re-election next year.  He can't feel too secure, though, when all four pundits in my calculations rate this race as "lean."  This race starts off as a Weak GOP Hold as a result.

District 44:  An interesting rematch is brewing in CD-44 next year.  After garnering at least 60% of the vote for three straight elections, Ken Calvert barely eaked out a victory over Democrat Bill Hedrick by a scant 2.4% last year.  Hedrick is back for another attempt to unseat Calvert in this Southern California district that usually votes strongly for the GOP.  Obama's convincing victory nationally included a one-point advantage in this district.  A fact which undoubtedly helped shrink Calvert's margin of victory.  This race starts off as a Weak GOP Hold, but I won't be surprised to see it - and the third district as well - move to more a comfortable GOP rating before the votes are cast.

Other possibly competitive races in California include Jerry McNerney's 11th, Mary Bono Mack's 45th, and Loretta Sanchez's 47th districts.  Of the three, Bono Mack is the lone Republican.  Please check out the California state page for more information.

Next stop:  Colorado



Filed under:  California  CA Senate  CA House  CA Governor