Senate:  Incumbent Michael Bennet, a Democrat who has never run for public office, was appointed by Governor Bill Ritter to fill the seat vacated by Ken Salazar.  Salazar accepted President Obama's offer to become Secretary of the Interior.  After less than two years in office, Bennet will be seeking election in his own right.  Retaining his seat, however, will be a difficult task.  His quest will first be tested by a strong primary challenger, former Speaker of the House Andrew Romanoff.  Then, if he manages to secure the nomination, he will probably be up against Republican Jane Norton.  Norton, a former Lt. Governor, held a 9 point lead over Bennet in a Rasmussen poll released back in September.  Given that the same poll showed her up 8 against Romanoff, this race will start as a Weak GOP Gain.

Governor:  Democrat Bill Ritter won the Colorado Governor's Mansion in a rout 4 years ago when GOP challenger Bob Beauprez committed several PR blunders down the stretch.  Three years later, Ritter has seen his popularity decline under the weight of a bad economy and a budget shortfall.  Ironically, his policies and positions are hurting him among Democrats the most.  Strongly pro-life on abortion and seeking spending cuts to ease the state's money problems, Ritter faces the consternation of two key subgroups of support - pro-choice and pro-union voters.  Like Senator Bennet, Governor Ritter may find a winning margin made even more difficult in a favorable Republican cycle by the absence of Barack Obama on the ballot.  Early polls bear that out.  Just 33% said he deserved re-election in a survey completed by the Tarrance Group.  While it is worth noting that Tarrance is a GOP-leaning polling firm, that's an extremely low re-elect number.  Couple that with two polls this year which give likely GOP nominee Scott McGinnis a lead over Ritter, and it's not hard to see why I'm also calling this one a Weak GOP Gain, at least initially.

House District 4:  Betsy Markey is a freshman Democrat who benefited from Obama's long coattails in Colorado last year.  Those coattails are gone, and with Obama's shine dimming as well, Markey may fall victim to a red wave and a sophomore slump in 2010.  Her recent vote against Obamacare may be, at least in part, motivated by her realization of the struggle which lies ahead.  Both Charlie Cook and CQPolitics currently rate the race a tossup, and Stuart Rothenberg gives just a "tilt" in her direction.  This race could go either way next November.  I'll play it safe for now and rate it a Weak DEM Hold.

Get all the details on these and other races as well as plenty more information on the Colorado state page.

Next stop:  Connecticut



Filed under:  Colorado  CO Senate  CO House  CO Governor