In Colorado, the fate of Democratic incumbent Michael Bennet hangs in the balance.  The partial-term senator is facing a strong challenge from Colorado House Speaker Andrew Romanoff.  Recent polling shows the race to be a toss-up, probably not a good sign for the Bennet.  On the Republican side, former Lt. Governor Jane Norton and DA Ken Buck are also in a toss-up contest.  Buck is the Tea Party favorite and may benefit from voter enthusiasm.

Moving from the Rockies to the Northeast, we check in on the Nutmeg State.  Connecticut has one of the more intriguing candidates of the cycle in wrestling executive Linda McMahon.  Though she received enough support at the Republican convention earlier this year to garner the Senate nomination, two other GOP hopefuls qualified for the primary ballot.  Polls show McMahon to be the prohibitive favorite, however.  In the gubernatorial race, close primary contests await in both parties.  Former Senate nominee Ned Lamont appears to be a few points ahead of Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy on the Democratic ballot, while former ambassador Republican Tom Foley's double-digit lead has shrunk considerably of late as Lt. Governor Michael Fedele has made a late charge.  Fedele now looks to be within striking distance though Foley still holds a small advantage.

The last primary to cover is in Minnesota.  Just this week, I had to change the preliminary projection on the governor's race from Weak GOP Hold to Weak DFL Gain because of former Senator Mark Dayton's large lead in the polls.  He should win the Democratic nomination without problem and looks poised to best presumptive GOP nominee Tom Emmer in the general.

Finally, Georgia Republicans will choose between Former GA Secretary of State Karen Handel and Former Congressman Nathan Deal to be their nominee in the gubernatorial race.  Former Governor Roy Barnes awaits the winner.  Recent polls have been neck-and-neck.  Who wins is anybody's guess right now, but general elections polls show Deal to be the stronger candidate against Barnes in November.



Filed under:  Colorado  Connecticut  Minnesota  Georgia  CO Senate  MN Governor  GA Governor 

Senate:  Incumbent Michael Bennet, a Democrat who has never run for public office, was appointed by Governor Bill Ritter to fill the seat vacated by Ken Salazar.  Salazar accepted President Obama's offer to become Secretary of the Interior.  After less than two years in office, Bennet will be seeking election in his own right.  Retaining his seat, however, will be a difficult task.  His quest will first be tested by a strong primary challenger, former Speaker of the House Andrew Romanoff.  Then, if he manages to secure the nomination, he will probably be up against Republican Jane Norton.  Norton, a former Lt. Governor, held a 9 point lead over Bennet in a Rasmussen poll released back in September.  Given that the same poll showed her up 8 against Romanoff, this race will start as a Weak GOP Gain.

Governor:  Democrat Bill Ritter won the Colorado Governor's Mansion in a rout 4 years ago when GOP challenger Bob Beauprez committed several PR blunders down the stretch.  Three years later, Ritter has seen his popularity decline under the weight of a bad economy and a budget shortfall.  Ironically, his policies and positions are hurting him among Democrats the most.  Strongly pro-life on abortion and seeking spending cuts to ease the state's money problems, Ritter faces the consternation of two key subgroups of support - pro-choice and pro-union voters.  Like Senator Bennet, Governor Ritter may find a winning margin made even more difficult in a favorable Republican cycle by the absence of Barack Obama on the ballot.  Early polls bear that out.  Just 33% said he deserved re-election in a survey completed by the Tarrance Group.  While it is worth noting that Tarrance is a GOP-leaning polling firm, that's an extremely low re-elect number.  Couple that with two polls this year which give likely GOP nominee Scott McGinnis a lead over Ritter, and it's not hard to see why I'm also calling this one a Weak GOP Gain, at least initially.

House District 4:  Betsy Markey is a freshman Democrat who benefited from Obama's long coattails in Colorado last year.  Those coattails are gone, and with Obama's shine dimming as well, Markey may fall victim to a red wave and a sophomore slump in 2010.  Her recent vote against Obamacare may be, at least in part, motivated by her realization of the struggle which lies ahead.  Both Charlie Cook and CQPolitics currently rate the race a tossup, and Stuart Rothenberg gives just a "tilt" in her direction.  This race could go either way next November.  I'll play it safe for now and rate it a Weak DEM Hold.

Get all the details on these and other races as well as plenty more information on the Colorado state page.

Next stop:  Connecticut



Filed under:  Colorado  CO Senate  CO House  CO Governor