Delaware and Wisconsin were directly effected by the primaries.  Christine O'Donnell's victory over Mike Castle in the Republican primary in Delaware gives Democrat Chris Coons a decided advantage heading toward November.  His chances improved from a projected Weak GOP Gain to a much more favorable Strong DEM Hold.  If the GOP is to win a majority in the Senate, they'll most likely have to find 10 seats in other states now that this one has almost certainly slipped away.  They'll also need to have Dino Rossi rebound from recent poor polling against Democratic incumbent Patty Murray in Washington.  What looked like a golden pick-up opportunity just a week or so ago is not so encouraging now after two separate polls give Murray leads in the upper single digits.

On the bright side for Republicans is Ron Johnson's expectedly strong polling against Democratic incumbent Russ Feingold in Wisconsin.  The latest Rasmussen poll of the race gives Johnson a seven-point lead.  With no other polls published here recently, this contest moves from a projected Weak DEM Hold to a Mod GOP Gain.  All this movement leaves the projected Senate tally at 50 Democrats, 48 Republicans and 2 Independents.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  Delaware  DE Senate  Washington  WA Senate  Wisconsin  WI Senate 

Back in June, the Tea Party scored a victory in the Utah Senate primary when incumbent Bob Bennet failed to even make the GOP ballot at the Utah Republican Convention.  Mike Lee, the Republican nominee, will be a great conservative senator.  With a 25-point advantage in the projection here at EP, his election is not in doubt.  Well done, Tea Party!

A month before the Utah primaries, the Tea Party struck its first blow in Senate primaries when Rand Paul defeated Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson.  Paul's win unnerved me a bit given his inexperience and sometimes questionable sound bites.  Still, Kentucky is a moderately red state in a very red environment, so Paul's election prospects seem relatively good.  He's in a close race with Kentucky Attorney General Jack Conway, but has maintained a single-digit Election Projection lead.  Ok, Tea Party, looks like you did good here, too.

Let's move to Alaska just last month.  Polls showed incumbent Lisa Murkowski well ahead of Tea Party favorite Joe Miller right up to primary election day.  She also enjoyed substantial leads against Democratic challengers - reportedly some 30-points better than Joe Miller, pre-primary.  When the votes were counted here, though, Miller earned a stunning victory.  Was this a triumph for just the Tea Party - or a triumph for Democrats as well?  Even though Miller appears to have staked out a lead in early polling after the primary, his re-election chances may not be as good as Paul in Kentucky.  And complicating matters, Murkowski is tossing around the idea of a third-party or independent run, a la Charlie Crist in Florida.  In the end, I do believe Joe Miller, staunch conservative, will be the next Senator from the state of Alaska.  So, I'll offer another, tentative, atta-boy to the Tea Party.

So far, so good, right?  Yes.  But then I get this big bold headline in my email inbox last week.  "O'Donnell within 2% of Castle!"  What???  NO!!  This is Delaware, people, not Kansas.  I was all for Bennet's demise.  I was nervously happy with Rand Paul's victory.  When Miller won, I cringed a bit, but that looks like it might work out ok, too.  But Delaware is not friendly territory to conservatives.

Let me put this in perspective.  In a Democratic landslide year in 2008, Alaska, Kentucky and Utah nevertheless voted for Republican John McCain by 22, 18, and 29 points, respectively.  Delaware, on the other hand, went for President Obama by 25 points.  Even in 2004, a good Republican year in which George W. Bush won re-election, he couldn't get close in Delaware.  I understand that Mike Castle is a RINO who voted for Cap and Trade, to name one, and if he were running in a red state, I would hate to see him win anything.  But in deep blue Delaware, he represents a chance - almost a certainty - to get a Republican seat in a solid Democratic state.  You might counter that he's not a conservative so we don't really gain anything by him winning.  A look at the voting record paints a different picture, however.

According to the Cook Political Report, there are seven districts nationwide rated PVI D+7.  Among them, Mike Castle is the only Republican congressman.  The American Conservative Union tracks congressional votes and releases an annual ranking of all 535 senators and representatives.  In 2009, their House listing was based on 25 major votes.  Conservative Congressmen and women score high on their scale; liberals score low.  When I compared Castle's performance to the six Democrats from similar districts, the data were eye-opening.  Castle, in true RINO form, voted with conservatives on just 14 of the 25 votes tested.  Kick him out, right?  Not so fast!  By contrast, the Democrats were combined 1-147 voting with conservatives.  That's just one vote in nearly 150 that went conservatives' way.  Castle's record doesn't look so bad in its context.  Moreover, he may have a less-than-appealing 52.49% lifetime ACU mark, but he's also more conservative than all but two House Democrats - and those two, Bobby Bright (AL-2) and Gene Taylor (MS-4) represent much more Republican districts.  They understand that their continued presence on Capitol Hill requires a conservative lean.

The bottom line is two-fold.  First, RINOs serve a useful and sometimes critical function in the conservative game plan.  Think of the insignificance of Scott Brown's candidacy if either Olympia Snowe or Susan Collins, two RINO senators from Democrat-leaning Maine, had been defeated in their last re-election bids.  Senator Mike Castle might not always vote the way I want him to, but his Democratic opponent almost never would.  Second, though Christine O'Donnell is polling reasonably strong for a Tea Party candidate in Delaware, she is still well behind.  In a year where the balance of power in the Senate was not at stake, I might favor an O'Donnell nomination.  Sure, I might say, give her a shot.  But with Senate control in this period of uber-liberal policy initiatives up for grabs, I am hesitant to take that chance.

Republicans need 10 more Senate seats to regain power.  They are competitive in eleven races for seats currently held by Democrats.  In order to prevail in the big picture, they need to win all but one of those races.  That's a stretch, but doable.  If the Tea Party has its way on September 14 in Delaware, however, I fear one of those very likely wins will be taken out of contention.  As a result, Republicans would need to win all ten of the remaining contests.  That's a much taller order.

In the end, the Tea Party in Delaware, with its eyes on a few votes scattered here and there, may be risking control of the entire legislative agenda.  With Barack Obama in the White House, it's a choice with monumental consequences.

Final note:  I have approached this article from a big picture numbers perspective.  I would be remiss if I didn't include a word about the abortion debate.  Mike Castle is mostly pro-choice; Christine O'Donnell is all-the-way pro-life.  If you're a Delaware pro-lifer weighing your vote in the primary, I encourage you to vote your convictions - even if it runs contrary to a positive "big-picture" outcome.

Correction:  Originally, I listed Leonard Lance (NJ-7) as a third Democratic congressman more conservative than Castle.  In truth, Lance is a Republican.



Filed under:  Senate  Delaware  DE Senate 

Senate:  One shining star for the GOP over recent election cycles is Congressman Mike Castle.  The popular Republican has breezed to several terms in the House.  Since Delaware only has the one at-large seat in the House, all Castle's victories have been statewide - a fact which puts him in a strong position as a potential Senate candidate.  With Joe Biden's promotion to Vice-President, the allure of a Senate run became too tempting for the Capitol Hill veteran, and he decided jump into the race.  His likely opponent in the general election is none other than the Veep's son, Beau Biden.  Certainly Biden's pedigree lends considerable weight to his candidacy, but Castle's popularity should be enough to overcome the Biden name, resulting in a Weak GOP Gain.

House At-Large District:  The downside to Mike Castle's likely ascendancy to the Senate is the House seat he leaves behind.  In a state like Delaware, the only thing keeping it in GOP hands is a Republican anomaly like Castle.  Now that he is no longer in the picture, this seat is a sure Democratic pick-up.  In fact, it will be tracked here at Election Projection not because it will be all that competitive, but because a takeover is - for our purposes - hotly contested by definition.  I'll give it a Mod DEM Gain rating to start, but don't be surprised if the Democratic candidate wins by a margin reminiscent of other Democratic victories here lately.

Check out the Delaware state page for more information.

Next stop: Florida



Filed under:  Delaware  DE Senate  DE House