In the Senate, recent polling has recaptured another seat for the GOP, one that had just days ago slipped away from them in the projections.  Last week's Rasmussen poll testing the Illinois Senate race gave Democrat Alexi Giannoulias a 1-point lead over Republican Mark Kirk.  This week's edition shows some movement in Kirk's direction, giving him a 4-point advantage.  Replacing the old with the new paints this race red, moving it from Weak DEM Hold to Weak GOP Gain (Kirk now has a 1% lead in the projections).  The Senate count now stands at 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans and 2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  Senate  Illinois  IL Senate  Governors  Florida  FL Governor 

On Tuesday, Florida's statehouse race, currently held by a (former) Republican Charlie Crist, moved back into the Republican fold thanks to 4 polls in 5 days giving GOP nominee Rick Scott the lead over Democrat Alex Sink.  Its move from Weak DEM Gain to Weak GOP Hold give the GOP 31 projected governorships against just 19 for the Democrats.

In the Senate, Friday gave us a significant party switcher.  After absorbing millions in negative advertising from Democrat incumbent Harry Reid, Sharron Angle recently got the endorsement of Nevada's largest newspaper, the Las Vegas Review Journal.  I had a hunch that the legitimacy this endorsement lent to the Angle candidacy would impact the race more than newspaper endorsements tend to do.  Indeed, that may have happened.  In all three polls released so far in October, Angle is ahead.  And now, she's ahead here at Election Projection, too.  Like the governor's race in Florida, this one also moves from Weak DEM Gain to Weak GOP Hold.  The GOP is now projected to pick up 9 seats in the Senate and moves into an effective tie with the 48 Democrats and 2 Independents on the other side of the aisle.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  Senate  Governors  Nevada  NV Senate  Florida  FL Governor 

Senate:  Mel Martinez, a Cuban-born GOP senator first elected in 2004, decided earlier this year not to run for re-election in 2010.  In August, he decided to end his term early and retire.  George LeMieux was appointed to replace him, but he, too, has decided against running.  Not so for the man who appointed LeMieux.  Governor Charlie Crist has thrown his moderate Republican hat into the race.  Mix that moderate ideology and good amount of early backing from national GOP powers that be with a favorite of the grass roots conservative movement (aka the Tea Partiers) and you have the makings of a lost opportunity.  This seat should stay in GOP hands, but a bruising primary between Crist and former Florida House Speaker and rising GOP star Marco Rubio could give the Democrats a chance to steal this one away.  My hunch is that Crist would have no problem winning the general election if he defeats Rubio in the primary.  Rubio's chances, however, are a bit more dicey, but he could win as well.  Until the primaries are over, a prediction in this race is a bit premature.  But that's never stopped me before!  I'll call it a Weak GOP Hold for now for the simple reason that this rating probably falls just about in the center of what is a broad range of possible outcomes.

Governor:  Since Crist seeks a Washington office, his residency in the Governor's Mansion will end.  The vacancy has given cause for a plethora of individuals to jump in the gubernatorial race.  Among the GOP hopefuls, it appears to be a two-man...er...one man - one woman race between State Senator Paula Dockery and former Congressman and failed Senate candidate Bill McCollum.  Polls give McCollum a big edge, though one has to wonder if name recognition may play a part in that.  On the Democratic side, CFO Alex Sink has the inside track to the nomination as things currently stand.  This is another difficult race predict this far out.  The results of the primaries loom large as do the candidates' performances on the post-primary campaign trail.  I'm going to call this a Weak GOP Hold, but, honestly, it is without much conviction.

House District 8:  Alan Grayson is no softly liberal.  Oh, he's a liberal for sure, but he's as hard as nails.  He refused to apologize for his now-famous declaration on the House floor during the healthcare debate that Republicans "want you to die quickly."  And this despite the fact that he's a freshman congressman from a GOP-leaning district.  That takes gumption, my friends.  It also puts him in a precarious position heading toward the midterms.  While the GOP has had several first-tier folks decline to run, this race is low-hanging fruit, to be sure, and the eventual GOP nominee should send Grayson back to defending whistleblowers and filing lawsuits against big bad government contractors.  This race is one of the most vulnerable.  It should end up a Weak GOP Gain.

House District 24:  Freshman Democratic Congresswoman Suzanne Kosmas bucked the norm by winning her first term in a Republican district by a landslide.  GOP incumbent Republican Tom Feeney's corruption problems and the big blue wave in 2008 provided Kosmas with an easy path to Washington.  Since arriving, she has shown centrists tendencies and is a member of the New Democrat Coalition.  These facts give her a good shot at not being a common one-term wave baby.  She will be tested, given the conservative bent of her constituency.  Against a big red wave, she may not get that second term.  For now, though, I see her hanging on in a Weak DEM Hold.

Another possibly competitive race in Florida which Election Projection will be tracking is in district 12, an open GOP seat vacated by Adam Putnam.  He declined to seek re-election in favor of a bid to become Florida's Commissioner of Agriculture.

Please check out the Florida state page for lots more cool stuff on the Sunshine State.

Next stop:  Georgia



Filed under:  Florida  FL Senate  FL House  FL Governor