Yesterday, Public Policy Polling released the first post-primary poll from Florida.  The result seems to confirm my hunch that Crist will not be able to beat Rubio.  In the poll, the freshly-crowned GOP nominee leads the turncoat governor by 8 points.  That margin is enough to tip the official tracking numbers in his favor, yielding a Weak GOP Hold.  With no additional independent senators projected, the balance of power moves to 50 Democrats, 48 Republicans and 2 Independents.  With the two existing independents caucusing with the Democrats, it will take three more pick-ups to give the GOP a majority in the Senate. Note: A poll from Rasmussen released after today's update was posted further confirms Rubio's lead.  In it, he tops Crist by 10 points.

Florida party-switchers for today don't stop in the Senate.  Democrat Alex Sink, an easy primary winner on Tuesday, has moved smartly ahead of her Republican counterpart, Rick Scott.  Sink had led a couple of polls prior to the primaries, but because, as I said earlier, my Florida projection was preliminary, she did not move ahead in this race here at EP until I plugged in real numbers afterward.  However, with that same Public Policy poll giving her a sizeable lead yesterday, Sink moves right through "weak" territory.  She's now projected at a Mod DEM Gain.  And with Scott having to contend with a reputation that is in some ways soiled, Sink is going to be hard to beat despite Florida's Republican lean.  The statehouse count now stands at 31 Republicans, 18 Democrats and 1 Independent.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  Florida  FL Senate  FL House 

Senate:  Mel Martinez, a Cuban-born GOP senator first elected in 2004, decided earlier this year not to run for re-election in 2010.  In August, he decided to end his term early and retire.  George LeMieux was appointed to replace him, but he, too, has decided against running.  Not so for the man who appointed LeMieux.  Governor Charlie Crist has thrown his moderate Republican hat into the race.  Mix that moderate ideology and good amount of early backing from national GOP powers that be with a favorite of the grass roots conservative movement (aka the Tea Partiers) and you have the makings of a lost opportunity.  This seat should stay in GOP hands, but a bruising primary between Crist and former Florida House Speaker and rising GOP star Marco Rubio could give the Democrats a chance to steal this one away.  My hunch is that Crist would have no problem winning the general election if he defeats Rubio in the primary.  Rubio's chances, however, are a bit more dicey, but he could win as well.  Until the primaries are over, a prediction in this race is a bit premature.  But that's never stopped me before!  I'll call it a Weak GOP Hold for now for the simple reason that this rating probably falls just about in the center of what is a broad range of possible outcomes.

Governor:  Since Crist seeks a Washington office, his residency in the Governor's Mansion will end.  The vacancy has given cause for a plethora of individuals to jump in the gubernatorial race.  Among the GOP hopefuls, it appears to be a two-man...er...one man - one woman race between State Senator Paula Dockery and former Congressman and failed Senate candidate Bill McCollum.  Polls give McCollum a big edge, though one has to wonder if name recognition may play a part in that.  On the Democratic side, CFO Alex Sink has the inside track to the nomination as things currently stand.  This is another difficult race predict this far out.  The results of the primaries loom large as do the candidates' performances on the post-primary campaign trail.  I'm going to call this a Weak GOP Hold, but, honestly, it is without much conviction.

House District 8:  Alan Grayson is no softly liberal.  Oh, he's a liberal for sure, but he's as hard as nails.  He refused to apologize for his now-famous declaration on the House floor during the healthcare debate that Republicans "want you to die quickly."  And this despite the fact that he's a freshman congressman from a GOP-leaning district.  That takes gumption, my friends.  It also puts him in a precarious position heading toward the midterms.  While the GOP has had several first-tier folks decline to run, this race is low-hanging fruit, to be sure, and the eventual GOP nominee should send Grayson back to defending whistleblowers and filing lawsuits against big bad government contractors.  This race is one of the most vulnerable.  It should end up a Weak GOP Gain.

House District 24:  Freshman Democratic Congresswoman Suzanne Kosmas bucked the norm by winning her first term in a Republican district by a landslide.  GOP incumbent Republican Tom Feeney's corruption problems and the big blue wave in 2008 provided Kosmas with an easy path to Washington.  Since arriving, she has shown centrists tendencies and is a member of the New Democrat Coalition.  These facts give her a good shot at not being a common one-term wave baby.  She will be tested, given the conservative bent of her constituency.  Against a big red wave, she may not get that second term.  For now, though, I see her hanging on in a Weak DEM Hold.

Another possibly competitive race in Florida which Election Projection will be tracking is in district 12, an open GOP seat vacated by Adam Putnam.  He declined to seek re-election in favor of a bid to become Florida's Commissioner of Agriculture.

Please check out the Florida state page for lots more cool stuff on the Sunshine State.

Next stop:  Georgia



Filed under:  Florida  FL Senate  FL House  FL Governor