Ironically, there a good chance neither will remain that way after November.  Unique circumstances are at play in both situations which will make it difficult for the winner this month to be the winner again later this year.  In Hawaii, Republican Charles Djou is way out in front despite the fact that this area is strongly Democratic.  His lead can be attributed to the presence of two well-known Democrats in the race.  In the "winner-take-all" format governing this election, Djou is polling around 40% while Democrats Ed Case and Colleen Hanabusa are dividing up most of the rest of the vote.

Up in the Keystone State, a different dynamic is at work benefiting former Murtha staffer, Mark Critz.  While the tide in Pennsylvania is moving toward the GOP, Democratic turnout here will be fueled by a classic top-of-the-ballot all-out primary war.  Incumbent Senator Arlen Specter is in danger of losing the nomination to Congressman Joe Sestak, and interest in that race overshadows any on the Republican slate.  So, despite a strong GOP wind in general, the race for Murtha's seat may be decided by a gale-force intra-party storm raging above it on the ballot.  Polls have moved away from Republican Tim Burns of late and now favor Critz to win.

Victories by Critz and Djou may be short-lived, however.  Once November arrives, the unique aspects of May's contests will no longer be present.  In their stead, we'll see more expected tendencies exert their influence.  Specifically, in Hawaii, Djou will face just one Democrat on November 2nd - and that presents him with heaps of trouble.  As next Saturday will confirm, Djou can do well against a split Democratic vote, but he'll be unlikely to survive against the sole Democratic opponent he will face in November.  Likewise, in Pennsylvania, Critz will be seeking re-election in the midst of a red wave election in a district Charlie Cook gives a slight Republican lean (PVI R+1).  If Critz does win on Tuesday, his seat will remain on the hotly-contested list and should immediately be considered a more likely Republican gain than it currently is.



Filed under:  House  Hawaii  HI House  Pennsylvania  PA House 

There are two interesting storylines to be gleaned from today's polls.  First, in Hawaii, Republican Charles Djou has moved out to a double-digit lead over his two Democratic incumbents.  More than that, however, are these two tidbits.  From Hotline On Call:

And from the Honolulu Civil Beat:

Second, in another possible indication of the voter enthusiasm gap we're looking at in November, The Washington Post released a poll of the Maryland gubernatorial contest between incumbent Governor Martin O'Malley, a Democrat, and former Governor Bob Ehrlich, a Republican.  When registered voters are polled, O'Malley stakes a 8 point lead.  However, a test of likely voters ends in a 47-47 tie.  That's quite a difference, one could bode very well for GOP prospects across the country six months from now.



Filed under:  House  Governors  HI House  MD Governor 

That's good news for the GOP and one less seat they'll have to worry about in November as they try to gain control of the House once again, right?  Not exactly.  This district is still strongly Democratic (Cook PVI D+11), and election rules revert to normal in November.  After a September primary, Djou would have to battle just one Democrat on the ballot, not two, in the general.  That's a formula for a very short term in office.  Sure, he would have the power incumbency, sort of, but I don't think this district will pick him again six months from now.  Democrats are sure to split their vote this month, but they won't have to in November.  Perhaps that is why Hanabusa won't go away and National Dems seem reluctant to come out and play here.

Still, holding the seat in Obama's district - even for half a year - would be sweet.



Filed under:  House  HI House