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| 2010 Elections - Iowa House Races |
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| Friday, August 13, 2010 |
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| Rating change: Iowa CD-3 drifts to red |
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A partisan poll released by Victory Enterprises (R) this week gives GOP challenger Brad Zaun a 47%-36% lead over Democratic incumbent Leonard Boswell. Even though all four
pundits on my House panel continue to rate this race narrowly in Boswell's favor, this poll, coupled with the generic congressional poll offset, is enough to move Zaun 0.3% ahead in the
Election Projection for the race. As a result of this party-switcher, the projected House net gain for Republicans moves up one to 34, another high water mark. With the
House tally now projected at 222 Democrats, 213 Republicans, just 5 more GOP takeovers will give them the House majority.
Filed under:
Ratings changes
House
Iowa
IA House
posted by Scott Elliott at 5:22pm 08/13/10::
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| Monday, January 11, 2010 |
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| Fifty state tour - Iowa Preview |
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After a long slow trend toward the GOP, culminating in George W. Bush's razor-close victory here in 2004, Iowa lurched decidedly back toward the blue in 2008. Barack Obama won
the state by 9.5%, a margin not seen since Michael Dukakis ran away with Iowa's electoral votes by 10% back in 1988. But Iowa is hardly a one-party state. Ever on the list
of battleground states in presidential elections, it also boasts a fairly balanced delegation on Capitol Hill. Iowa's senate seats are filled by one long-term Democrat and one long-term
Republican, each of whom is in the midst of a fifth term. And Iowa's 5 House districts are split 3 and 2 in favor of the Democrats.
Senate: In 2010, it is the five-term Republican's turn to seek re-election. Chuck Grassley has not had a tough election season since he first won a place in the
House back in 1974. Since a 54-point outing in 1980, his first try at the Senate, he has not gotten less than 66% of the vote. Moreover, his current approval numbers are in
the upper 60's as well. Put all this together, and you have the makings of another easy run for Grassley. He keeps this seat in a Solid GOP Hold
without breaking a sweat.
Governor: Chet Culver wishes he were in the same political position as his colleague running for Senate. The Democratic incumbent is not likely to attain the
9.5% margin he enjoyed in winning the statehouse for the first time in 2006. In fact, whether he wins at all is very much in question. Stuart Rothenberg and CQ Politics each
rate his re-election bid as "lean Democrat," and the race will start off here at Election Projection as a Weak DEM Hold. Of note, however, is that
Charlie Cook now lists it as a toss-up and Rothenberg's latest update moved from "likely Democrat." Clearly, this will be a hotly-contested race made only more so by solid contenders
vying for the GOP nomination. Two headliners for the GOP nod are former Iowa Governor Terry Branstad and former Iowa Speaker of the House Chris Rants. As of now, the
list of probable statehouse party switchers is long on both sides. If the GOP's wave gets any larger, Iowa may very well join that list.
House District 3: After losing 2 seats here in the blue wave election of 2006 - CD-1 and CD-2 - Republicans are looking toward a different seat to help offset one of
those losses. Leonard Boswell in CD-3 is not yet in serious trouble, but initial estimations indicate he could face a solid challenge in November. Most likely the outcome of his
re-election bid will hinge on the strength of the GOP wave. For now, we'll leave it as a Mod DEM Hold. An interesting note about Boswell - at 75,
he is the focus of retirement rumors and, if he doesn't retire this year, may be forced out in 2012 as reapportionment costs Iowa one of its five House districts.
For the rest of the story, see the Iowa state page.
Next stop: Kansas
Filed under:
Iowa
IA Senate
IA House
IA Governor
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:32pm 01/11/10::
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