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Senate:  In 2010, it is the five-term Republican's turn to seek re-election.  Chuck Grassley has not had a tough election season since he first won a place in the House back in 1974.  Since a 54-point outing in 1980, his first try at the Senate, he has not gotten less than 66% of the vote.  Moreover, his current approval numbers are in the upper 60's as well.  Put all this together, and you have the makings of another easy run for Grassley.  He keeps this seat in a Solid GOP Hold without breaking a sweat.

Governor:  Chet Culver wishes he were in the same political position as his colleague running for Senate.  The Democratic incumbent is not likely to attain the 9.5% margin he enjoyed in winning the statehouse for the first time in 2006.  In fact, whether he wins at all is very much in question.  Stuart Rothenberg and CQ Politics each rate his re-election bid as "lean Democrat," and the race will start off here at Election Projection as a Weak DEM Hold.  Of note, however, is that Charlie Cook now lists it as a toss-up and Rothenberg's latest update moved from "likely Democrat."  Clearly, this will be a hotly-contested race made only more so by solid contenders vying for the GOP nomination.  Two headliners for the GOP nod are former Iowa Governor Terry Branstad and former Iowa Speaker of the House Chris Rants.  As of now, the list of probable statehouse party switchers is long on both sides.  If the GOP's wave gets any larger, Iowa may very well join that list.

House District 3:  After losing 2 seats here in the blue wave election of 2006 - CD-1 and CD-2 - Republicans are looking toward a different seat to help offset one of those losses.  Leonard Boswell in CD-3 is not yet in serious trouble, but initial estimations indicate he could face a solid challenge in November.  Most likely the outcome of his re-election bid will hinge on the strength of the GOP wave.  For now, we'll leave it as a Mod DEM Hold.  An interesting note about Boswell - at 75, he is the focus of retirement rumors and, if he doesn't retire this year, may be forced out in 2012 as reapportionment costs Iowa one of its five House districts.

For the rest of the story, see the Iowa state page.

Next stop:  Kansas



Filed under:  Iowa  IA Senate  IA House  IA Governor